Good news from Italy! - Printable Version

Good news from Italy! - Printable Version

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RE: Good news from Italy! - M T - 03-25-2020

(03-24-2020, 12:15 PM)2006alum Wrote: One major problem is that a lot of people don't have masks. However, here's a PSA on how (relatively) effective other easily accessible materials can be at a MacGyver-esque substitute:

Hmmm.... I read that as "A T-shirt is 2.5x worse than a surgical mask." If there were 100 units of virons, the mask lets through 11 units while the T-shirt lets through 27 units." However, no mask is 9 times as worse than a surgical mask, or 3.6 times as worse than using a T-shirt.

RE: Good news from Italy! - OutsiderFan - 03-25-2020

Italy numbers are in for March 25:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24 +5,249 - 743 Dead

March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead

It looks like the growth has stabilized and isn't increasing anymore, or at least not very much. Spain has also seen a leveling off of increased case growth. This does suggest the curve is flattening for them because the lockdowns are working.

RE: Good news from Italy! - terry - 03-25-2020

(03-25-2020, 11:25 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Italy numbers are in for March 25:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24 +5,249 - 743 Dead

March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead

It looks like the growth has stabilized and isn't increasing anymore, or at least not very much. Spain has also seen a leveling off of increased case growth. This does suggest the curve is flattening for them because the lockdowns are working.

It's encouraging that Italy is flattening the curve. It indicates that we can succeed in stopping the growth of this virus. Now we need to see a decline.

RE: Good news from Italy! - Goose - 03-25-2020

The chart linked below would make one believe that things are slowing down. The trend line is good, but it is still a short interval and the data is noise level is high. After a few more days of decline in new cases, it is a trend.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1659720/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/1659720

Note that the total number of active cases in Italy is still rising. We will need to see lots of people either recovering or dying before the total case load will decrease. There is another graph showing ICU cases. That graph is quite flat. Good news if they are having fewer serious cases. Bad news if it is a capacity issue. No idea which it is really.

RE: Good news from Italy! - OutsiderFan - 03-26-2020

Italy numbers are in for March 26:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead

March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead

I don't like the ~ 20% case growth from 3/25 to 3/26. This data is starting to maybe show how Minnesota's Governor might be right. I don't know how strict Italy's enforcement of lockdown is, but this is not looking as promising as 5 days ago.

RE: Good news from Italy! - chrisk - 03-26-2020

(03-26-2020, 12:01 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Italy numbers are in for March 26:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead

March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead

I don't like the ~ 20% case growth from 3/25 to 3/26. This data is starting to maybe show how Minnesota's Governor might be right. I don't know how strict Italy's enforcement of lockdown is, but this is not looking as promising as 5 days ago.

When looking at daily data, it’s probably not reasonable to expect to see a sharp spike at the top, followed by a steep decline.

RE: Good news from Italy! - stupac2 - 03-26-2020

(03-26-2020, 12:08 PM)chrisk Wrote:
(03-26-2020, 12:01 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Italy numbers are in for March 26:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead

March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead

I don't like the ~ 20% case growth from 3/25 to 3/26. This data is starting to maybe show how Minnesota's Governor might be right. I don't know how strict Italy's enforcement of lockdown is, but this is not looking as promising as 5 days ago.

When looking at daily data, it’s probably not reasonable to expect to see a sharp spike at the top, followed by a steep decline.

Hubei's data was pretty noisy:

[Image: 1*pwPIo7U6pBahMZhopHYbMw.png]

Although it does seem like the downward trend was clear once it started.

RE: Good news from Italy! - magnus - 03-27-2020

Not sure it's the same source as the above numbers but CNN reports a jump in over 900 deaths in Italy. =(

RE: Good news from Italy! - 2006alum - 03-27-2020

Unfortunately you heard right. :(

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1243577095802032128?s=20[/tweet]

RE: Good news from Italy! - OutsiderFan - 03-27-2020

Italy numbers are in for March 27:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead
March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead

March 27: +5,909 - 919 Dead

OK, we do appear to have evidence the case growth has absolutely stabilized. The death numbers are quite something. Even with no new cases and no new deaths, Italy's CFR will be at least 10%. Then the question becomes the case definition and how big the denominator of cases should be?

If Italy's health officials believe there are 10x more cases than reported, the CFR would go down to 1%. So what do we count as a case? Do we count all positive tests? Just those who have been admitted to a hospital or otherwise expressed the most severe symptoms, like high fever and lung infection, and tested positive?

RE: Good news from Italy! - JustAnotherFan - 03-27-2020

(03-27-2020, 10:24 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Italy numbers are in for March 27:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead
March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead

March 27: +5,909 - 919 Dead

OK, we do appear to have evidence the case growth has absolutely stabilized. The death numbers are quite something. Even with no new cases and no new deaths, Italy's CFR will be at least 10%. Then the question becomes the case definition and how big the denominator of cases should be?

If Italy's health officials believe there are 10x more cases than reported, the CFR would go down to 1%. So what do we count as a case? Do we count all positive tests? Just those who have been admitted to a hospital or otherwise expressed the most severe symptoms, like high fever and lung infection, and tested positive?

But let's not forget that there appears to be more COVID deaths than reported in some places, as well.

RE: Good news from Italy! - magnus - 03-28-2020

New numbers for Italy out. Death increase slightly less.

Nate Silver points out that Italy has ramped up its testing so a plateau in numbers may actually be a decrease in rate.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1243951509777375234?s=20
[/tweet]

RE: Good news from Italy! - OutsiderFan - 03-29-2020

Italy numbers are in for March 28:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead
March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead
March 27: +5,909 - 919 Dead

March 29: +5,974 - 889 Dead

If Italy is doing more testing to find more cases, these numbers are encouraging. How long might lockdown last if new cases growth goes say below 500/day?

RE: Good news from Italy! - magnus - 03-29-2020

I'm not sure if my source (bno) is using a different 24 hour snapshot but they're reporting 756 deaths for 3/29.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1244296350751227906?s=20[/tweet]

Also cases in lombardy have dropped 3 straight days.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1244299447317794818?s=20[/tweet]

RE: Good news from Italy! - OutsiderFan - 03-29-2020

Italy numbers are in for March 29:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead
March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead
March 27: +5,909 - 919 Dead
March 28: +5,974 - 889 Dead

March 29: +5,217 - 756 Dead

Looks like the peak of the wave has past Italy at least with its distancing and lockdown measures in place. Who knows what happens if they relax them.

RE: Good news from Italy! - Goose - 03-29-2020

(03-29-2020, 10:09 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Italy numbers are in for March 29:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead
March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead
March 27: +5,909 - 919 Dead
March 28: +5,974 - 889 Dead

March 29: +5,217 - 756 Dead

Looks like the peak of the wave has past Italy at least with its distancing and lockdown measures in place. Who knows what happens if they relax them.

Italy may have plateaued. The data still contains lots of "noise". What they will need is these number of new cases per day to go DOWN a bunch before they can consider opening up a bit. We thought they were flat a week ago, but then a new peak hit. Hopefully, things start to tail off and we can expect the same here in the USA. For sure not there yet in NY.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1659720/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/1659720

RE: Good news from Italy! - Mick - 03-30-2020

The logarithmic scale in Italy looks like it's close to a plateau. Might be from testing capacity. Not sure if it's encouraging or not:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

USA is not near a plateau yet:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

RE: Good news from Italy! - burger - 03-30-2020

(03-30-2020, 06:00 AM)Mick Wrote: The logarithmic scale in Italy looks like it's close to a plateau. Might be from testing capacity. Not sure if it's encouraging or not:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

USA is not near a plateau yet:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA testing has essentially flattened out the last several days. So the increase in cases is actually a bad sign.

More generally, because testing varies so much within and across countries, people should stop paying so much attention to numbers of cases and worry more about other indicators like:
- % of positive tests
- number of hospital admissions
- and number of deaths.

Italy is improving on those fronts as well. The US is highly variable from state to state.

RE: Good news from Italy! - magnus - 03-30-2020

Big drop in new cases in Italy, 4050.

Deaths up slightly over 800.

Hopefully the cases reflect a real decrease as opposed to a change in testing or something.

RE: Good news from Italy! - OutsiderFan - 03-30-2020

Italy numbers are in for March 30:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 - 602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead
March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead
March 27: +5,909 - 919 Dead
March 28: +5,974 - 889 Dead
March 29: +5,217 - 756 Dead

March 30: +4,050 - 812 Dead

Looks like the worst is behind Italy for real now. I'm a bit perplexed how models that a couple weeks ago were showing U.S. peak would be in June, are now being replaced with ones that show peak to be April 15.