The tsunami is about to hit - Printable Version
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RE: The tsunami is about to hit - Leftcoast - 03-25-2020
Re: China
I work with a large manufacturer in China and we talk to our counterparts over there frequently. The South China factory we work with was shutdown for a 3-week period and started coming back on line two weeks ago. As they came on line Wuhan was still on lockdown so a portion of their workforce did not come back to the facility - Specifically the folks who were in Wuhan for CNY. The factory also had fairly strict rules in place for travel and I believe most folks were tested, had observed the quarantine and many were required to stay on site (dormitories are common at some factories). There is talk now of opening up Wuhan in the next weeks (and some nervousness about that.). But basically, the economy is restarting over the last two weeks.
As further corroboration of what I'm hearing, most US companies in my industry who are working with Chinese suppliers are seeing supplies flowing from China to the US. As a third corroboration of China coming back on line, lift rates for cargo out of China are escalating due to the pent-up demand and high volume. We are paying surcharges for slots on US bound planes.
I wouldn't be shocked if China numbers in local areas were fudged lightly but really don't understand why folks would discount data from the China experience. That's not wise given they are ahead of us on this curve and have, at least for now, come out the other side. That's not to say everything done in China will work here but it's a big world out there and we need to pull from best practices everywhere.
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - OutsiderFan - 03-25-2020
That Andy Slavitt thread is everything. And it basically confirms why I created this one.
If 100 people are shopping and just one person is an asymptomatic virus carrier, and that person infects a cashier not wearing a mask, and that cashier infects 20 people in a 6 hour shift for 3 days before showing symptoms...
There are now 60 people infecting their entire household. Let’s call it 2 per household on average. That would be 120. Say there are 10 such grocery stores in each state. And this event happens 7 times over a month in all 50 states. This alone adds 420,000 infections in a month. We know these numbers are way small compared to reality.
The WA story is instructive. Andrew Cuomo is acting like NY is somehow a pioneer when the reality is WA was ahead of this before any other state and took the first early actions to shut things down and add capacity, certainly before NY did. WA appears to have bought some time, but the Slavitt thread indicates even their actions only bought time. They didn’t stop spread enough to keep them from facing being overwhelmed. WA has upped its ask to shelter in place to a legal order as a result. To me, based on what we have observed worldwide, this is the only way to slow spread so it doesn’t overwhelm. CA appears to be having some success slowing spread because it too took action faster than NY, but only 700 tests had been performed in Santa Clara county in total as of March 23, so it is still unclear what the numbers are and what it’s 350 reported cases means. Is there a wave still coming, or has growth really slowed to a ripple?
Congress operating on assumption 2,000,000 will die is quite something considering we are only at less than 1,000 deaths now.
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - stupac2 - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 12:24 AM)Leftcoast Wrote: Re: China
I work with a large manufacturer in China and we talk to our counterparts over there frequently. The South China factory we work with was shutdown for a 3-week period and started coming back on line two weeks ago. As they came on line Wuhan was still on lockdown so a portion of their workforce did not come back to the facility - Specifically the folks who were in Wuhan for CNY. The factory also had fairly strict rules in place for travel and I believe most folks were tested, had observed the quarantine and many were required to stay on site (dormitories are common at some factories). There is talk now of opening up Wuhan in the next weeks (and some nervousness about that.). But basically, the economy is restarting over the last two weeks.
As further corroboration of what I'm hearing, most US companies in my industry who are working with Chinese suppliers are seeing supplies flowing from China to the US. As a third corroboration of China coming back on line, lift rates for cargo out of China are escalating due to the pent-up demand and high volume. We are paying surcharges for slots on US bound planes.
I wouldn't be shocked if China numbers in local areas were fudged lightly but really don't understand why folks would discount data from the China experience. That's not wise given they are ahead of us on this curve and have, at least for now, come out the other side. That's not to say everything done in China will work here but it's a big world out there and we need to pull from best practices everywhere.
Same for us, our Chinese reseller is taking product as fast as we can ship it, which is nice. March is shaping up to be our best month ever, although a lot of it is robbing Peter to pay Paul, we'd rather have that product out the door then stuck on our shelves if we go into full lockdown.
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - BostonCard - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 03:53 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: That Andy Slavitt thread is everything. And it basically confirms why I created this one.
If 100 people are shopping and just one person is an asymptomatic virus carrier, and that person infects a cashier not wearing a mask, and that cashier infects 20 people in a 6 hour shift for 3 days before showing symptoms...
It is worth noting that most transmissions don't work that way. As infectious as SARS-CoV is, it isn't measels and generally casual contact is not enough to transmit the virus. You actually need sustained (30 min or longer) contact within 6 feet. So generally speaking, a cashier is not going to infect 20 people per 6 hour shift for three days.
There are of course exceptions, and there are some well-documented "super spreaders", including the guy at the Biogen conference who infected about 100 other people. But that is the exception. Remember, the R0 for this virus (average number of healthy people infected by an infected person) is between 2 and 3, which means once you account for the superspreaders, most people will only infect the people they are in closest contact with (mostly household contacts).
BC
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - OutsiderFan - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 08:12 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(03-25-2020, 03:53 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: That Andy Slavitt thread is everything. And it basically confirms why I created this one.
If 100 people are shopping and just one person is an asymptomatic virus carrier, and that person infects a cashier not wearing a mask, and that cashier infects 20 people in a 6 hour shift for 3 days before showing symptoms...
It is worth noting that most transmissions don't work that way. As infectious as SARS-CoV is, it isn't measels and generally casual contact is not enough to transmit the virus. You actually need sustained (30 min or longer) contact within 6 feet. So generally speaking, a cashier is not going to infect 20 people per 6 hour shift for three days.
There are of course exceptions, and there are some well-documented "super spreaders", including the guy at the Biogen conference who infected about 100 other people. But that is the exception. Remember, the R0 for this virus (average number of healthy people infected by an infected person) is between 2 and 3, which means once you account for the superspreaders, most people will only infect the people they are in closest contact with (mostly household contacts).
BC
The virus can also live in the air for 3 hours. I was just trying to paint the picture of how easily this spreads and making the point only strict distancing has proven capable of slowing it to a manageable rate. If everyone was wearing masks it wouldn't be nearly as big of a deal to let people out.
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - BostonCard - 03-25-2020
I'm a bit weary of the reports of the virus being able to live for 3 hours in the air or that it survives for several days on cardboard, etc. We have incredibly sensitive instruments to pick up very small amounts of stuff. The real question is how much is required to cause infection and is there enough of it in an enclosed room an hour after an infectious patient was in it to infect an uninfected person. I don't think we have enough evidence to say one way or another, and it is probably a gradient. Your probability of infection is going to be proportional to how many viral particles you come in contact with, which will be inversely proportional to how much time has passed from when an infected person was somewhere along with a host of other factors like the size of the room, environmental conditions, ventilation, and the degree of viral shedding of the infected person.
I wish we knew the answers to those questions so that we can provide people practical advice as to what is "safe" and what is not. In the absence of such recommendations, it pays to take reasonable precautions and avoiding unnecessary risk.
BC
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - OutsiderFan - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 09:08 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I'm a bit weary of the reports of the virus being able to live for 3 hours in the air or that it survives for several days on cardboard, etc. We have incredibly sensitive instruments to pick up very small amounts of stuff. The real question is how much is required to cause infection and is there enough of it in an enclosed room an hour after an infectious patient was in it to infect an uninfected person. I don't think we have enough evidence to say one way or another, and it is probably a gradient. Your probability of infection is going to be proportional to how many viral particles you come in contact with, which will be inversely proportional to how much time has passed from when an infected person was somewhere along with a host of other factors like the size of the room, environmental conditions, ventilation, and the degree of viral shedding of the infected person.
I wish we knew the answers to those questions so that we can provide people practical advice as to what is "safe" and what is not. In the absence of such recommendations, it pays to take reasonable precautions and avoiding unnecessary risk.
BC
The spread of this virus seems to justify drawing hard to believe conclusions. It's not just spreading from people not washing their hands and touching their face.
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - BostonCard - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 09:32 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(03-25-2020, 09:08 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I'm a bit weary of the reports of the virus being able to live for 3 hours in the air or that it survives for several days on cardboard, etc. We have incredibly sensitive instruments to pick up very small amounts of stuff. The real question is how much is required to cause infection and is there enough of it in an enclosed room an hour after an infectious patient was in it to infect an uninfected person. I don't think we have enough evidence to say one way or another, and it is probably a gradient. Your probability of infection is going to be proportional to how many viral particles you come in contact with, which will be inversely proportional to how much time has passed from when an infected person was somewhere along with a host of other factors like the size of the room, environmental conditions, ventilation, and the degree of viral shedding of the infected person.
I wish we knew the answers to those questions so that we can provide people practical advice as to what is "safe" and what is not. In the absence of such recommendations, it pays to take reasonable precautions and avoiding unnecessary risk.
BC
The spread of this virus seems to justify drawing hard to believe conclusions. It's not just spreading from people not washing their hands and touching their face.
There is nothing about the spread of the virus that is unusual; it is roughly what one would have expected for a virus with this basic reproduction number and incubation period unleashed in a world without any prevalent immunity.
BC
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - OutsiderFan - 03-26-2020
One of the most “forest through trees” solutions for stopping spread is requiring everyone to wear a mask. The tweet 2006alum posted showing the efficacy of masks and other face coverings was quite instructive.
We have been fixated on lack of surveillance testing, and rightfully so, but we’ve also assumed Asian country numbers have been small because they have done better testing, contact tracing and isolation. What is left unsaid is how everyone in such countries has no problem donning masks.
Not only do Americans feel socially awkward wearing masks and face coverings because it’s something we haven’t done before, we’ve also been told they won’t stop virus spread and we shouldn’t wear them. This was flat out propaganda government officials put out in an effort to prevent Americans hoarding masks so they would be available to healthcare workers.
Yes, it is true masks don’t 100% stop spread, but they do mitigate it and most importantly, reduce the viral load that can infect others, allowing those immune systems a better chance to stave off the virus if mask allows in some virus particles.
Everyone should be wearing a mask, but not a single U.S. health official has said to wear one, and neither has any government press conference I’ve seen shown anybody wearing a mask. It would be smart for all participants at any state or federal press event to wear a mask. Even members of Congress should be appearing doing their TV interviews wearing them. And they should be imploring people to make their own masks at home. There are several YouTube channels with how to make mask videos.
Mask wearing is the most effective thing everyone can do to slow spread of Covid-19. I was lucky enough to have a nurse friend who works in infection control give us 4 surgical masks six weeks ago, but we also have a sewing machine and can make more, and start handing them out to people in the neighborhood.
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - cardcrimson - 03-26-2020
Masks. I've a client that has a technology that may, may be able to quickly disinfect PPE. His parent company is running clinical tests in Germany with the Red Cross and with the Technical University in Munich. The procedure is proven to be very effective on bacteria, but quite unknown on viruses. Unfortunately he's been unable to get anyone in the US to run a clinical trial. Any suggestions, please PM me.
Here's a link to the technology:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29549-6
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - OutsiderFan - 03-26-2020
(03-26-2020, 08:08 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Masks. I've a client that has a technology that may, may be able to quickly disinfect PPE. His parent company is running clinical tests in Germany with the Red Cross and with the Technical University in Munich. The procedure is proven to be very effective on bacteria, but quite unknown on viruses. Unfortunately he's been unable to get anyone in the US to run a clinical trial. Any suggestions, please PM me.
Here's a link to the technology:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29549-6
UV light kills the virus after I think 30 minutes? The question is does the UV light also deteriorate the mask material and make it less effective at stopping particulate matter from getting though?
I have a friend who is a nurse specializing in infection control here in CT. He is running out of masks like everyone else and might be interested in testing them with your client's technology. Perhaps he could get UConn Health interested in setting up a study?
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - cardcrimson - 03-26-2020
(03-26-2020, 08:13 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(03-26-2020, 08:08 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Masks. I've a client that has a technology that may, may be able to quickly disinfect PPE. His parent company is running clinical tests in Germany with the Red Cross and with the Technical University in Munich. The procedure is proven to be very effective on bacteria, but quite unknown on viruses. Unfortunately he's been unable to get anyone in the US to run a clinical trial. Any suggestions, please PM me.
Here's a link to the technology:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29549-6
UV light kills the virus after I think 30 minutes? The question is does the UV light also deteriorate the mask material and make it less effective at stopping particulate matter from getting though?
I have a friend who is a nurse specializing in infection control here in CT. He is running out of masks like everyone else and might be interested in testing them with your client's technology. Perhaps he could get UConn Health interested in setting up a study?
Do you have a contact there? I believe they've reached out to Yale.
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - OutsiderFan - 03-26-2020
(03-26-2020, 08:27 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(03-26-2020, 08:13 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(03-26-2020, 08:08 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Masks. I've a client that has a technology that may, may be able to quickly disinfect PPE. His parent company is running clinical tests in Germany with the Red Cross and with the Technical University in Munich. The procedure is proven to be very effective on bacteria, but quite unknown on viruses. Unfortunately he's been unable to get anyone in the US to run a clinical trial. Any suggestions, please PM me.
Here's a link to the technology:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29549-6
UV light kills the virus after I think 30 minutes? The question is does the UV light also deteriorate the mask material and make it less effective at stopping particulate matter from getting though?
I have a friend who is a nurse specializing in infection control here in CT. He is running out of masks like everyone else and might be interested in testing them with your client's technology. Perhaps he could get UConn Health interested in setting up a study?
Do you have a contact there? I believe they've reached out to Yale.
Not at UConn. But I can bring this to the nurse's attention and let you know the reaction.
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - cardcrimson - 03-26-2020
(03-26-2020, 08:37 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:Thanks!(03-26-2020, 08:27 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(03-26-2020, 08:13 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(03-26-2020, 08:08 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Masks. I've a client that has a technology that may, may be able to quickly disinfect PPE. His parent company is running clinical tests in Germany with the Red Cross and with the Technical University in Munich. The procedure is proven to be very effective on bacteria, but quite unknown on viruses. Unfortunately he's been unable to get anyone in the US to run a clinical trial. Any suggestions, please PM me.
Here's a link to the technology:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29549-6
UV light kills the virus after I think 30 minutes? The question is does the UV light also deteriorate the mask material and make it less effective at stopping particulate matter from getting though?
I have a friend who is a nurse specializing in infection control here in CT. He is running out of masks like everyone else and might be interested in testing them with your client's technology. Perhaps he could get UConn Health interested in setting up a study?
Do you have a contact there? I believe they've reached out to Yale.
Not at UConn. But I can bring this to the nurse's attention and let you know the reaction.
RE: The tsunami is about to hit - M T - 03-26-2020
(03-26-2020, 08:13 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: UV light kills the virus after I think 30 minutes?This 2003 study measured the stability of SARS-COV (not SARS-COV-2) when exposed to UV light.
After 15 minutes, less than 25% of the virus had cytopathic effect. After 30, a few cells. After 60, none detected.
260nm, > 90 uw/cm*cm at 80 cm.