We're #1! - Printable Version

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RE: We're #1! - burger - 03-27-2020

(03-27-2020, 12:27 PM)M T Wrote:  New York and L.A. County have indicated they will not test (some) cases that are expected to be COVID-19.  Those jurisdiction's numbers should be considered incomplete & thus wrong.  Someone in China might point to their numbers and say they are lying.

I understand that, practically, doing large numbers of tests is difficult.  And it's probably impossible in some locations.  I just wish that the people determining how much testing is being done (mostly local public health officials, I'd imagine) would talk to the people who know how to stop or mitigate a pandemic (epidemiologists).  Because it feels like testing is being dictated by purely practical considerations right now with zero thought towards how the outbreak will ultimately get under control--testing and contact tracing.

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RE: We're #1! - cctop - 03-27-2020

That photo is funny to see...I worked on an entertainment project inside that building.

It was the hardest show I've done in my career, and it shut down less than two years after it opened.

But because of it, I actually knew where Wuhan was before the virus hit.  :-) China has a bunch of cities you've never heard of that have more than ten million people.

(03-27-2020, 08:10 AM)2006alum Wrote:  Some other bad news about China is that fighting this virus appears to be a two steps forward, one step back kind of battle:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1243529611952168962?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: We're #1! - M T - 03-27-2020

(03-27-2020, 01:23 PM)oldalum Wrote:  Yes, not all likely infected patients are being tested. Here in Santa Clara County, my daughter had a high-risk exposure (60 minutes 2 feet away from another student who became symptomatic later that day and tested positive) and was put in 14-day quarantine within our house as a result. Her physician checked with the Dept. of Public Health and was told she would not be tested if she became symptomatic because she would be presumed infected. Presumably she would not be counted in the official totals if she became symptomatic, unless she needed hospitalization (fortunately, she just ended the 14 days asymptomatic). On the other hand, they said if my wife or I became symptomatic, we'd get tested. 

That's good news!

Very informative.  I had not heard this was the protocol, but it makes sense.  It muddies the statistics that such an exposed person would not become a confirmed case, but it is the people we want to preserve, not the stats.  Santa Clara County has been perhaps intentionally ambiguous between confirmed positive and presumed positive cases.

I'm very glad this seems to have turned out well.   14 days is not the absolute upper limit seen on incubation time, and there is the possibility of your daughter being asymptomatic, so do keep your guard up.   When the antibody tests are available, it would be interesting and informative to know if your daughter has antibodies.

This is also good news that close proximity does not necessarily mean that you get the disease.  I will share this story with someone who is feeling pretty scared about disease.

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RE: We're #1! - BostonCard - 03-27-2020

The US now has over 100,000 coronavirus diagnoses.  Almost half of the US states (23/50 + DC) had more than 100 new cases today.  Less than three weeks ago, the US as a whole had fewer than 100 new cases a day.  The exponential rise in cases shows no signs of slowing down.

BC

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RE: We're #1! - M T - 03-27-2020

(03-27-2020, 04:15 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  The exponential rise in cases shows no signs of slowing down.

Not quite true.  The Bay Area counties issued their shelter in place order on March 16, effective March 17.
The number of daily new cases in SCC fell more than 50 percent from March 24 to March 26. 
Statistical glitch?  Can't be sure yet, but this is the day I was expecting the drop.

While I haven't looked at the other Bay Area counties, I expect they will fall.  The state was about 3 days later, so that will kick in Monday.  Many other states followed suit, and they'll kick in too.

No way are we (SCC) over this, but we can see the difference our common sacrifice is making.

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RE: We're #1! - Goose - 03-27-2020

(03-27-2020, 04:15 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  The US now has over 100,000 coronavirus diagnoses.  Almost half of the US states (23/50 + DC) had more than 100 new cases today.  Less than three weeks ago, the US as a whole had fewer than 100 new cases a day.  The exponential rise in cases shows no signs of slowing down.

BC

To some a significant degree the continued increase locally can be attributed to people who were exposed before shelter-in-place began on March 16. The CDC says "Existing literature regarding SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses (e.g. MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV) suggest that the incubation period may range from 2–14 days."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.htm says "A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection.".
In so far as these estimates are correct, we could hope to see a reduction in new cases from "community spreading" starting at the end of March. Unfortunately, the families of the people who became ill (detected or undetected) during this shelter-in-place interval will be starting a new incubation period as late as the end of the month. Those cases will cause a slower drop-off than we might expect. This condition is recursive. We are going to be at this until at least the middle of next month, best case, and probably longer.

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RE: We're #1! - BostonCard - 03-27-2020

This is for the US as a whole, and California was a bit ahead of other jurisdictions in enacting shelter-in-place.  Right now New York is the epicenter, and while California has the third most cases (behind New York and New Jersey), things are rising quickly in Michigan, Louisiana, and Florida.



The slope of the line in the attached picture (in log scale) of the overall case count is pretty constant:




Note, of course, that in some ways what we are seeing is the exponential expansion in testing.  However, the fact that the share of tests that are positive is constant suggests that the case count is expanding approximately proportionally.



BC

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RE: We're #1! - stupac2 - 03-27-2020

And even though we're on SiP, it's going to keep expanding. I went on a bike ride with my kid, figuring that it's pretty easy to avoid others while on a bike, and saw a large group, at least a dozen, basically taking over an intersection. No idea why. I noped the hell out of there pretty quickly.

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RE: We're #1! - JustAnotherFan - 03-27-2020

(03-27-2020, 08:28 PM)stupac2 Wrote:  And even though we're on SiP, it's going to keep expanding. I went on a bike ride with my kid, figuring that it's pretty easy to avoid others while on a bike, and saw a large group, at least a dozen, basically taking over an intersection. No idea why. I noped the hell out of there pretty quickly.

They were most likely protesting vehicles.

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RE: We're #1! - Hurlburt88 - 03-28-2020

I am pretty connected with china having a factory there and having lived there for 4 years.    What I am hearing from my current employees and also friends at my former company is that they are not seeing any cases right now in their regions, and that the country is attempting to open up slowly.   Obviously anecdotal only.

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RE: We're #1! - stupac2 - 03-28-2020

(03-27-2020, 10:06 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:  

(03-27-2020, 08:28 PM)stupac2 Wrote:  And even though we're on SiP, it's going to keep expanding. I went on a bike ride with my kid, figuring that it's pretty easy to avoid others while on a bike, and saw a large group, at least a dozen, basically taking over an intersection. No idea why. I noped the hell out of there pretty quickly.

They were most likely protesting vehicles.

Not that kind of neighborhood, and it seemed more like a Friday evening party anyway.

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