UW predicts CA peaks end of April - Printable Version
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RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - BostonCard - 03-27-2020
(03-27-2020, 03:23 PM)Mick Wrote: I don't understand why this is such a difficult concept to grasp. When people are most out of work, they're more likely to commit suicide. Why can't we understand that?
Mick, it is not a difficult concept to grasp (which is why I started my response with "I would not be surprise that suicides went up after the great recession"). It makes intuitive sense. What I was trying to explore is the magnitude of the effect (and also whether it was appropriate to compare 2010 to 2006 and attribute the difference in suicide rates to the great recession).
The number of excess deaths matter. You could envision a situation where the number of deaths caused by the slowdown was actually greater than the number of deaths directly attributable to coronavirus (regardless of whether these stemmed from policy or generalized fear). You could also imagine a scenario where the number of suicides was lower than the number of suicides that you would save with moderate restrictions on gun sales; as a society we've decided that those restrictions are not worth the lives saved.
There are also possible knock on effects on health, though I saw 2006's post suggesting that non-suicide deaths go down. Here's one article with an estimate (no sources cited):
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/economy/coronavirus-economy.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200325&instance_id=17048&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=112348342§ion=topNews&segment_id=22795&te=1&user_id=ceb8dc75e6018f57e5d7fc74f24220a2
Quote:every loss of income of $100 million in the economy causes one additional death.
That suggests that a 5% hit to GDP (sustained over a year), which would result in the loss of approximately $1 trillion, would cause the loss of 10,000 lives. A bigger loss to GDP (say 10% sustained over a year) would lead to 20,000 lives lost. Coronavirus has already killed 1,477 Americans.
BC
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - burger - 03-27-2020
(03-27-2020, 04:08 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(03-27-2020, 03:23 PM)Mick Wrote: I don't understand why this is such a difficult concept to grasp. When people are most out of work, they're more likely to commit suicide. Why can't we understand that?
Mick, it is not a difficult concept to grasp (which is why I started my response with "I would not be surprise that suicides went up after the great recession"). It makes intuitive sense. What I was trying to explore is the magnitude of the effect (and also whether it was appropriate to compare 2010 to 2006 and attribute the difference in suicide rates to the great recession).
The number of excess deaths matter. You could envision a situation where the number of deaths caused by the slowdown was actually greater than the number of deaths directly attributable to coronavirus (regardless of whether these stemmed from policy or generalized fear). You could also imagine a scenario where the number of suicides was lower than the number of suicides that you would save with moderate restrictions on gun sales; as a society we've decided that those restrictions are not worth the lives saved.
There are also possible knock on effects on health, though I saw 2006's post suggesting that non-suicide deaths go down. Here's one article with an estimate (no sources cited):
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/business/economy/coronavirus-economy.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200325&instance_id=17048&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=112348342§ion=topNews&segment_id=22795&te=1&user_id=ceb8dc75e6018f57e5d7fc74f24220a2
Quote:every loss of income of $100 million in the economy causes one additional death.
That suggests that a 5% hit to GDP (sustained over a year), which would result in the loss of approximately $1 trillion, would cause the loss of 10,000 lives. A bigger loss to GDP (say 10% sustained over a year) would lead to 20,000 lives lost. Coronavirus has already killed 1,477 Americans.
BC
BC, your numbers from that article are exactly the opposite of the studies that I linked to upthread. I don't know where this economist is getting one life per $100 million, but the peer-reviewed literature suggests that mortality rates go down, not up, during recessions.
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - BostonCard - 03-27-2020
(03-27-2020, 04:20 PM)burger Wrote: BC, your numbers from that article are exactly the opposite of the studies that I linked to upthread. I don't know where this economist is getting one life per $100 million, but the peer-reviewed literature suggests that mortality rates go down, not up, during recessions.
Sorry, I mistook you for 2006alum, and noted that there was a post showing that non-suicide deaths go down (I also noted that the economist estimated a number but there was no citation for where that came from). I'm not sure how to reconcile the numbers. Intuitively it makes sense that deaths would rise, if for no other reason that people would lose access to healthcare or would not take care of themselves as well, but I acknowledge that the data you cited raises questions about my assumption.
BC
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - 2006alum - 03-27-2020
Changing the subject a bit, I found this thread to be extremely enlightening in terms of thinking about how to predict when the curve will flatten, and it does indeed suggest the SF Bay Area is on a much better course than other parts of the country and the world:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1243651474258833408?s=20[/tweet]
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - BostonCard - 03-27-2020
Thank you for sharing; that is a very useful figure. It is also a bit distressing. Case growth is 20%, while better than other regions is still growth of 20%, and in order to keep this epidemic under control, we will need the growth rate to equal the case clearance rate over the long haul.
BC
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - 2006alum - 03-27-2020
(03-27-2020, 05:56 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Thank you for sharing; that is a very useful figure. It is also a bit distressing. Case growth is 20%, while better than other regions is still growth of 20%, and in order to keep this epidemic under control, we will need the growth rate to equal the case clearance rate over the long haul.
BC
I may have read this differently from you - I thought it indicated total cases, not active case volume. In other words, it's not measuring clearance at all, just total number of confirmed cases. As a result, places like Wuhan can never fall below 0 on the Y axis, because even 1000 case clearances and 0 new cases will still be a 0% new cases growth on the Y axis. Or am I misreading?
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - BostonCard - 03-27-2020
You read correctly; I was just trying to mentally extrapolate at what point you would reach a steady state. I think 20% rise in cases is too high; it's probably got to be less than 5%.
BC
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - Mick - 03-28-2020
Doesn't surprise me Detroit is getting hit hard. Not a hygienic city, based upon my observations during the four years that I lived there. And their governor is an idiot.
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - JustAnotherFan - 03-28-2020
(03-28-2020, 07:05 AM)Mick Wrote: Doesn't surprise me Detroit is getting hit hard. Not a hygienic city, based upon my observations during the four years that I lived there. And their governor is an idiot.
What do you mean by not a hygienic city? What is going on there that is different than in other cities?
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - burger - 03-28-2020
(03-28-2020, 07:05 AM)Mick Wrote: Doesn't surprise me Detroit is getting hit hard. Not a hygienic city, based upon my observations during the four years that I lived there. And their governor is an idiot.I got called out for calling politicians names, but at least I gave specific examples to back up what I said. What's Whitmer done wrong? Or are you just following Trump's leads.
Also, what the f*** does how dirty a city is have to do with virus spread? Wuhan looked squeaky clean in all the pictures of it I saw. Even New York City is pretty clean now--certainly compared to how it used to be in the 70s and 80s.
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - Mick - 03-29-2020
(03-28-2020, 07:51 AM)burger Wrote:(03-28-2020, 07:05 AM)Mick Wrote: Doesn't surprise me Detroit is getting hit hard. Not a hygienic city, based upon my observations during the four years that I lived there. And their governor is an idiot.I got called out for calling politicians names, but at least I gave specific examples to back up what I said. What's Whitmer done wrong? Or are you just following Trump's leads.
Also, what the f*** does how dirty a city is have to do with virus spread? Wuhan looked squeaky clean in all the pictures of it I saw. Even New York City is pretty clean now--certainly compared to how it used to be in the 70s and 80s.
I PM'd you my personal experience with and knowledge of Gov. Whitmer, along with the 800 or so folks with whom I worked that had personal knowledge of her.
And by dirty, I mean hygienic practices of its citizens, not the fact that the streets were dirty. I spent four years living in Detroit proper. I've been in all of the Top 50 cities in the USA, I grew up in Silicon Valley. Based upon the unhealthy behavior of the citizens I've seen in Detroit, I'm not remotely surprised that the virus blew through that metro region as quickly as it did.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unhealthiest-cities-in-us-ranked-stress-money-health-2020-1
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - JustAnotherFan - 03-29-2020
(03-29-2020, 07:33 AM)Mick Wrote:(03-28-2020, 07:51 AM)burger Wrote:(03-28-2020, 07:05 AM)Mick Wrote: Doesn't surprise me Detroit is getting hit hard. Not a hygienic city, based upon my observations during the four years that I lived there. And their governor is an idiot.I got called out for calling politicians names, but at least I gave specific examples to back up what I said. What's Whitmer done wrong? Or are you just following Trump's leads.
Also, what the f*** does how dirty a city is have to do with virus spread? Wuhan looked squeaky clean in all the pictures of it I saw. Even New York City is pretty clean now--certainly compared to how it used to be in the 70s and 80s.
I PM'd you my personal experience with and knowledge of Gov. Whitmer, along with the 800 or so folks with whom I worked that had personal knowledge of her.
And by dirty, I mean hygienic practices of its citizens, not the fact that the streets were dirty. I spent four years living in Detroit proper. I've been in all of the Top 50 cities in the USA, I grew up in Silicon Valley. Based upon the unhealthy behavior of the citizens I've seen in Detroit, I'm not remotely surprised that the virus blew through that metro region as quickly as it did.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unhealthiest-cities-in-us-ranked-stress-money-health-2020-1
I can't see your PM but you said hygienic and then shared a link that had nothing to do with hygiene.
"Detroit has the highest percentage of cigarette smokers in the country, and it's home to some of the most stressed people in the country, with 40.4% reporting feeling stressed or extremely stressed."
"And much of that stress is money-related: More than half of residents — 52.1% — reported feeling financial stress."
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - OutsiderFan - 03-29-2020
I HIGHLY recommend watching the Dr. Sanjay Gupta documentary One Nation Under Stress.
Gupta is from Michigan and he makes connections between loss of economic status, stress, and health in his doc.
In addition to compelling stories, some really fascinating research about how stress isn't from having nothing, but instead comes from fear of losing what you once had.
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - 2006alum - 03-29-2020
Turns out the folks we should be worrying about re: suicides aren't just the unemployed but those responsible for helping them:
German state's finance minister kills himself
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - dabigv13 - 03-29-2020
Italy has had several nurses kill themselves. I'm sure we will see similar in the US. This will be Katrina like for many/most major metro hospitals. Stresses that no doctor or nurse has faced or anticipated facing in their careers.
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - Mick - 03-30-2020
(03-29-2020, 10:50 AM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(03-29-2020, 07:33 AM)Mick Wrote:(03-28-2020, 07:51 AM)burger Wrote:(03-28-2020, 07:05 AM)Mick Wrote: Doesn't surprise me Detroit is getting hit hard. Not a hygienic city, based upon my observations during the four years that I lived there. And their governor is an idiot.I got called out for calling politicians names, but at least I gave specific examples to back up what I said. What's Whitmer done wrong? Or are you just following Trump's leads.
Also, what the f*** does how dirty a city is have to do with virus spread? Wuhan looked squeaky clean in all the pictures of it I saw. Even New York City is pretty clean now--certainly compared to how it used to be in the 70s and 80s.
I PM'd you my personal experience with and knowledge of Gov. Whitmer, along with the 800 or so folks with whom I worked that had personal knowledge of her.
And by dirty, I mean hygienic practices of its citizens, not the fact that the streets were dirty. I spent four years living in Detroit proper. I've been in all of the Top 50 cities in the USA, I grew up in Silicon Valley. Based upon the unhealthy behavior of the citizens I've seen in Detroit, I'm not remotely surprised that the virus blew through that metro region as quickly as it did.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unhealthiest-cities-in-us-ranked-stress-money-health-2020-1
I can't see your PM but you said hygienic and then shared a link that had nothing to do with hygiene.
"Detroit has the highest percentage of cigarette smokers in the country, and it's home to some of the most stressed people in the country, with 40.4% reporting feeling stressed or extremely stressed."
"And much of that stress is money-related: More than half of residents — 52.1% — reported feeling financial stress."
I sent you the same PM I sent to Burger. I don't want to post it on the open board. If anyone else is interested in my observations on Gov. Whitmer, I'm happy to share them privately.
As far as Detroit hygiene goes, my point wasn't the two bullet points you cited, but let's address them. My point was that Detroit is #2 among unhealthiest cities. My comment was based on my personal observations over the course of living there for four years. And BTW, you cited the smoking statistic, that Detroit has the highest percentage of cigarette smokers. I didn't get past calculus, but I don't think it takes a math genius to extrapolate the fact that the prevalence of smoking in that city might, just MIGHT lead to a prevalence of comorbidity factors; e.g., heart failure, hypertension. I don't think of smokers as being particularly hygienic. I actually think the opposite, that they're careless with their hygiene at best. And it's a poor, violent city with the second highest violent crime per capita rate and the third highest murder per capita rate in America. Does stress correlate to the immune system? Why don't we ask the doctors on the board. My doctor at PAMF always told me that it did, but maybe he was an outlier.
As far as hygiene goes, I'll share one bullet point. My current firm has had hand sanitizer, soap and mouthwash in all the bathrooms in all of their offices since I arrived here long before the coronavirus. My former firm based in Detroit had neither sanitizer nor mouthwash and was so frequently out of soap that we used to joke about it. Minor point, but there are other minor points. So I'm not surprised it blew through Detroit.
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - murky - 03-30-2020
(03-30-2020, 06:06 AM)Mick Wrote:(03-29-2020, 10:50 AM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(03-29-2020, 07:33 AM)Mick Wrote:(03-28-2020, 07:51 AM)burger Wrote:(03-28-2020, 07:05 AM)Mick Wrote: Doesn't surprise me Detroit is getting hit hard. Not a hygienic city, based upon my observations during the four years that I lived there. And their governor is an idiot.I got called out for calling politicians names, but at least I gave specific examples to back up what I said. What's Whitmer done wrong? Or are you just following Trump's leads.
Also, what the f*** does how dirty a city is have to do with virus spread? Wuhan looked squeaky clean in all the pictures of it I saw. Even New York City is pretty clean now--certainly compared to how it used to be in the 70s and 80s.
I PM'd you my personal experience with and knowledge of Gov. Whitmer, along with the 800 or so folks with whom I worked that had personal knowledge of her.
And by dirty, I mean hygienic practices of its citizens, not the fact that the streets were dirty. I spent four years living in Detroit proper. I've been in all of the Top 50 cities in the USA, I grew up in Silicon Valley. Based upon the unhealthy behavior of the citizens I've seen in Detroit, I'm not remotely surprised that the virus blew through that metro region as quickly as it did.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unhealthiest-cities-in-us-ranked-stress-money-health-2020-1
I can't see your PM but you said hygienic and then shared a link that had nothing to do with hygiene.
"Detroit has the highest percentage of cigarette smokers in the country, and it's home to some of the most stressed people in the country, with 40.4% reporting feeling stressed or extremely stressed."
"And much of that stress is money-related: More than half of residents — 52.1% — reported feeling financial stress."
I sent you the same PM I sent to Burger. I don't want to post it on the open board. If anyone else is interested in my observations on Gov. Whitmer, I'm happy to share them privately.
As far as Detroit hygiene goes, my point wasn't the two bullet points you cited, but let's address them. My point was that Detroit is #2 among unhealthiest cities. My comment was based on my personal observations over the course of living there for four years. And BTW, you cited the smoking statistic, that Detroit has the highest percentage of cigarette smokers. I didn't get past calculus, but I don't think it takes a math genius to extrapolate the fact that the prevalence of smoking in that city might, just MIGHT lead to a prevalence of comorbidity factors; e.g., heart failure, hypertension. I don't think of smokers as being particularly hygienic. I actually think the opposite, that they're careless with their hygiene at best. And it's a poor, violent city with the second highest violent crime per capita rate and the third highest murder per capita rate in America. Does stress correlate to the immune system? Why don't we ask the doctors on the board. My doctor at PAMF always told me that it did, but maybe he was an outlier.
As far as hygiene goes, I'll share one bullet point. My current firm has had hand sanitizer, soap and mouthwash in all the bathrooms in all of their offices since I arrived here long before the coronavirus. My former firm based in Detroit had neither sanitizer nor mouthwash and was so frequently out of soap that we used to joke about it. Minor point, but there are other minor points. So I'm not surprised it blew through Detroit.
Does mouthwash prevent the spread of disease?
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - BostonCard - 03-30-2020
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16242593/
Ask and pubmed shall answer:
Quote:Intervention: Participants were randomly assigned to water gargling, povidone-iodine gargling, and usual care (control). Subjects in the two gargling groups were requested to gargle with water or diluted povidone-iodine at least three times a day. Participants were followed for 60 days.
Main outcome measures: The primary outcome measure was first URTI incidence. Severity of URTI symptoms among incident cases was also evaluated. Both outcomes were assessed with a self-administered symptom record. Analyses were performed on an intention-to-treat basis.
Results: A total of 130 participants contracted URTIs. The incidence rate of first URTI was 0.26 episodes/30 person-days among control subjects. The rate decreased to 0.17 episodes/30 person-days in the water gargling group, and 0.24 episodes/30 person-days in the povidone-iodine gargling group. Respective incidence rate ratios against controls were 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.41-0.99) and 0.89 (95% CI=0.60-1.33). A Cox regression (proportional hazard model) revealed the efficacy of water gargling (hazard ratio=0.60, 95% CI=0.39-0.95). Even when a URTI occurred, water gargling tended to attenuate bronchial symptoms (p=0.055).
Conclusions: Simple water gargling was effective to prevent URTIs among healthy people. This virtually cost-free modality would appreciably benefit the general population.
BC
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - dabigv13 - 03-30-2020
Uh this seems like garbage. Gargling with water helps, but gargling with an antiseptic solution makes no difference. Self reported. Gargle if it helps you feel better.
RE: UW predicts CA peaks end of April - BostonCard - 03-30-2020
(03-30-2020, 02:28 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Uh this seems like garbage. Gargling with water helps, but gargling with an antiseptic solution makes no difference. Self reported. Gargle if it helps you feel better.
Incidence rate ratio of 0.64 (suspiciously with an upper bound of the confidence interval just under 1) strikes me as an implausibly big effect. It implies that 36% of infections occur through a mechanism that you can block by gargling. So, I agree with your assessment.
BC