Jeff Smith - Printable Version
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RE: Jeff Smith - donkey687 - 04-13-2020
(04-13-2020, 10:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(04-13-2020, 08:43 AM)donkey687 Wrote:(04-12-2020, 02:32 PM)needle Wrote: My wildly speculative guess is that there will be a 10-game CFB FBS season that starts no sooner than Oct. 31.I think September and October are less likely to have COVID risk than November December. More likely that the second wave gets roaring as weather cools and typical flu season. If you look at the per capita numbers per country, it is very clear that hot weather climes are much less impacted and it doesn't spread as rampantly.
I think the season might be played in "halves," with the first half running through November and the second half after the new year (and able to be postponed if necessary).
I predict restrictions on fans is what will vary from conference-to-conference and/or state-to-state.
I don't think it is clear at all. Spain (3.6/1000) and Italy (2.6/1000) have higher per capita infection rates than colder countries such as Germany (1.5/1000) or the UK (1.3/1000). And Australia (0.2/1000) and New Zealand (0.3/1000) both in the Southern Hemisphere, have more reported cases than Russia (0.1/1000). The US (1.7/1000) has more per capita cases than Canada (0.7/1000) or Mexico (0.04/1000). If there is a temperature gradation, it is really hard to see.
(reference: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
BC
Spain and Italy and all of Europe in February and March certainly aren't in the bucket of high temperature slow virus spreading climates that I am referring to. The tropical and African countries almost all have very small COVID deaths per capita. If you take temperature aside, due to presence of outside and foreign tourists (Hawaii) and elderly population and lax social distancing (Florida) should be near the top of the USA COVID deaths per capita list but they are near the bottom.
RE: Jeff Smith - BostonCard - 04-13-2020
There are too many other confounding factors. Third after New York and New Jersey in terms of per capital deaths is Louisiana. Oregon has a lower per capita death rate than California. New Mexico has a higher per capita death rate than Alaska. There may or may not be a weather effect, but it is swamped out by things like: how interconnected is an area with the rest of the world, how long has the virus been circulating, what is the population density, and what measures have been put in place to stem the tide.
Case in point, Brazil has a higher per capita death rate (6/million) than South Korea (4/million) and about the same as toasty Poland.
Here's a WSJ article on whether warmer temperatures make a difference:
https://apple.news/AnWEPWZ1LS72oHyB0xmGFpg
TL;DR: Maybe
BC
RE: Jeff Smith - CompSci87 - 04-13-2020
This thread is begging to be moved to the COVID-19 forum...
RE: Jeff Smith - 2006alum - 04-13-2020
(04-13-2020, 07:08 PM)CompSci87 Wrote: This thread is begging to be moved to the COVID-19 forum...Seconded. I moved the thread - since we've relaxed our normal board rules about politics, etc. for our COVID-19 threads, I think it's more important than ever to keep the sports forum as free as possible from any non-sports COVID-19 discussion. Plenty of threads in the COVID-19 space for those interested in speculating about when sports will "re-open."
RE: Jeff Smith - JeffInCorvallis - 04-13-2020
(04-10-2020, 06:54 AM)donkey687 Wrote: So if we want to speculate, here is a less than zero scenario that could play out: The NCAA and 49 states say Play FootBall this fall, but Newsom/CA or Santa Clara government or Stanford administration say "Not in my State/County/University". The Pac 12 could become the Pac 8 next season. The Pac 8 teams would have to pick up 1-2 more non-conference games but there would be a lot opponents available (i.e. Notre Dame with two holes in their schedule, BYU, william & Mary etc). The NCAA would probably grant immediate transfer eligibility to all the CA student athletes. That would be a nightmare scenario on many fronts for Stanford, Cal, UCLA and NFL. I would imagine that USC would set-up an extension campus in AZ or NV and keep on playing, but the state schools wouldn't be allowed to and Stanford would take the high road and not play and lose its entire roster. While this scenario isn't likely, I definitely think this is possible as I just don't see any state out of the West Coast continuing a shutdown this fall and saying no to football if the projections play out with respect to COVID numbers being on the very back side of the curve.
I definitely think that this is a possibility, however, lacking any specific direction from the Federal government, Washington, Oregon, and California have agreed to band together to build a plan for opening the West Coast in a manner that is safe from a health standpoint as much as possible. It's certainly possible that large metropolitan areas like the Bay Area, Seattle, and LA might have different recommendations and timelines compared to more rural areas, but it's hard for me to imagine wildly different rules for events that could have more than 50,000 in attendance.
RE: Jeff Smith - Genuine Realist - 04-14-2020
I believe the games will be played in empty stadiums.
RE: Jeff Smith - 82lsju - 04-15-2020
Quote:The commissioners of the major college football conferences told vice-president Mike Pence on Wednesday there would be no football this fall until campuses were deemed safe for students following the coronavirus pandemic.
The 10 commissioners — representing the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, Conference USA, Sun Belt, American Athletic, Mid-American and Mountain West — as well as Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick spoke to Pence via a 30-minute conference call. The call took place as part of the government’s exploration of when it might be safe to “re-open” to nation’s economy.
https://www.al.com/sports/2020/04/college-commissioners-to-vp-pence-no-football-before-campuses-re-open.html