How to "reopen"? - Printable Version
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RE: How to "reopen"? - chrisk - 04-13-2020
(04-13-2020, 09:34 PM)burger Wrote:(04-13-2020, 08:12 PM)Goose Wrote:(04-13-2020, 04:50 PM)2006alum Wrote: MA is now on board. Now that there's an R on board, I imagine VT and NH will join, along with ME.I am 100% in support of federalism. Obviously the individual states and regions know a lot about what they can and cannot do, and what will work for them. Getting together and sharing best practices is always a good idea.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/annagronewold/status/1249806614837760000?s=20[/tweet]
Looks like federalism/regionalism is starting to do its job. If not for border control and stimulus support (states can't run deficits due to state constitutional requirements), maybe it'd be possible to look past the feds altogether.
However, looking past the "feds" altogether is a bad idea, even when it comes to strategy of reopening and the epidemiology of the epidemic. The "feds" are not Donald Trump, although at times he seems to believe they are. Fauci is parts of the "feds". So is CDC and, more importantly, USPHS. Believe it or not, the system is designed for the Counties and the States to do the heavy lifting. However, the "feds" do have expertise and broad skills in these areas. The States should use these resources when appropriate, but should always make their own decisions based on the data available and their unique situation. Ignoring such resources would be stupid. Relying on them would be equally stupid. Pissing contests, whether Federal-State or State-County helps nobody.
I don't know where you're getting your news, but no one is turning down federal help in the next phase because there is no federal help. Trump's offer to the states was the same as Michael Corleone's to that senator--nothing. There's no pissing contest between the states and the feds. The feds are absolutely ***** useless with Trump in charge, so the states HAVE to go it alone.
Trump says he is in charge of reopening the country, not the states.
Trump Insists He Has ‘Total’ Authority to Supersede Governors
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/us/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
RE: How to "reopen"? - Mick - 04-14-2020
(04-13-2020, 09:34 PM)burger Wrote: I don't know where you're getting your news, but no one is turning down federal help in the next phase because there is no federal help. Trump's offer to the states was the same as Michael Corleone's to that senator--nothing. There's no pissing contest between the states and the feds. The feds are absolutely ***** useless with Trump in charge, so the states HAVE to go it alone.
Shows you how little I know. I thought there was a massive effort by CDC, FEMA, HHS, DoD, DoEn, DoEd, DoL, VA, DHS, DAg, DoJ, FBI, and all the rest of the acronyms to combat the pandemic. Now I find they're doing nothing. And still taking my tax dollars. Go figure.
RE: How to "reopen"? - OutsiderFan - 04-14-2020
The federal government hasn't been completely useless during this pandemic, but it could be significantly more helpful if not being so neutered.
The governors know the reality and aren't afraid of it. They know they need:
1. More testing capacity; testing materials and PPE
2. Contact tracing
The good news is the stay at home orders have done their job of flattening the curve and keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed to the point of collapse. The fact governors are now talking about testing and contact tracing, rather than beds and ventilators, demonstrates they are entering into a new phase of thinking.
Of course, the federal government has done NOTHING to help states get the testing equipment they need, and I don't know to what degree any of the previous relief appropriations have included funding to hire contact tracers. Nor do I have any insight into how any of this is being integrated into the Apple-Google tracking system. I honestly don't know how the Apple-Google system can effectively be implemented without federal coordination. I'm guessing it would make sense for them to work with CDC on this, but I have less than zero faith in the current regime doing anything that would be efficient or make any sense.
RE: How to "reopen"? - burger - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 05:36 AM)Mick Wrote:(04-13-2020, 09:34 PM)burger Wrote: I don't know where you're getting your news, but no one is turning down federal help in the next phase because there is no federal help. Trump's offer to the states was the same as Michael Corleone's to that senator--nothing. There's no pissing contest between the states and the feds. The feds are absolutely ***** useless with Trump in charge, so the states HAVE to go it alone.
Shows you how little I know. I thought there was a massive effort by CDC, FEMA, HHS, DoD, DoEn, DoEd, DoL, VA, DHS, DAg, DoJ, FBI, and all the rest of the acronyms to combat the pandemic. Now I find they're doing nothing. And still taking my tax dollars. Go figure.
We were talking about re-opening specifically. Are there any federal plans to reopen things that involve contact tracing, testing, and isolation? No. This is all up to the states now.
And Trump is actively working against any such plans. He and McConnell are opposing Democratic efforts to send more aid to the states. That money is desperately needed if states are going to hire the contact tracers, implement the testing, etc.
Trump has said over and over that it's the states' responsibility to fight the virus, but he doesn't even want the federal government to help.
RE: How to "reopen"? - OutsiderFan - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 07:41 AM)burger Wrote: We were talking about re-opening specifically. Are there any federal plans to reopen things that involve contact tracing, testing, and isolation? No. This is all up to the states now.
And Trump is actively working against any such plans. He and McConnell are opposing Democratic efforts to send more aid to the states. That money is desperately needed if states are going to hire the contact tracers, implement the testing, etc.
Trump has said over and over that it's the states' responsibility to fight the virus, but he doesn't even want the federal government to help.
This is 100% on the bullseye and it baffles me why anyone of any political party or persuasion can't understand this. This would be like a Head Coach claiming pass protection is the key to his offense, but then insisting all his scholarships must be used on other positions so he has to rely on walk-on Offensive Lineman exclusively. Words don't even exist to explain such a behavior. Stupid, dumb, naive, insane, illogical, are all far too limited.
Backed by this:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1248939530939490304[/tweet]
RE: How to "reopen"? - stupac2 - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 08:02 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: [tweet]https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1248939530939490304[/tweet]
I would really love to see one of our resident opener's response to that, because it's exactly what everyone else here has been saying (with a caveat of even under the test/trace/isolate model I think some activities will be restricted, the most relevant for this forum being sports).
I genuinely don't understand why the feds aren't pouring money into developing this capability. It's the only chance at not wrecking the economy for years, it's beneficial to everyone. What's the holdup?
RE: How to "reopen"? - Goose - 04-14-2020
(04-13-2020, 09:34 PM)burger Wrote:Burger, I don't know where you are getting your news either. However, I haven't seen any news that Jerome Adams isn't answering emails/calls from the various state officials asking for information. I also haven't seen any requests for USPHS deployments either requested or turned down. The idea that the federal government is Donald Trump comes from him, and apparently you have bought it. He is a problem, and a big one, but the idea that he is omnipotent is his. There is lots of help available. What isn't available is leadership and a desire on Trump's part to work cooperatively. That does color everything, but isn't the whole story.(04-13-2020, 08:12 PM)Goose Wrote: However, looking past the "feds" altogether is a bad idea, even when it comes to strategy of reopening and the epidemiology of the epidemic. The "feds" are not Donald Trump, although at times he seems to believe they are. Fauci is parts of the "feds". So is CDC and, more importantly, USPHS. Believe it or not, the system is designed for the Counties and the States to do the heavy lifting. However, the "feds" do have expertise and broad skills in these areas. The States should use these resources when appropriate, but should always make their own decisions based on the data available and their unique situation. Ignoring such resources would be stupid. Relying on them would be equally stupid. Pissing contests, whether Federal-State or State-County helps nobody.
I don't know where you're getting your news, but no one is turning down federal help in the next phase because there is no federal help. Trump's offer to the states was the same as Michael Corleone's to that senator--nothing. There's no pissing contest between the states and the feds. The feds are absolutely ***** useless with Trump in charge, so the states HAVE to go it alone.
RE: How to "reopen"? - magnus - 04-14-2020
New article from NYTimes mentioning four ways to prevent a second wave.
https://www.nytimes.com./2020/04/14/upshot/coronavirus-singapore-thinking-big.html
1) maximum testing. Test 7% of population every day -> test whole population every 2 weeks
2) monitor/ contact trace via phone.
3) community level surveillance by using medical records and other data to alert of outbreaks. And more frequent checks like everpresent thermometers
4) scaling up Singapore's contact tracing
RE: How to "reopen"? - dabigv13 - 04-14-2020
A good article from the Atlantic on the how reopening might look. Nothing too surprising in here for readers of this board but a good summary.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/
RE: How to "reopen"? - burger - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 08:54 AM)Goose Wrote: Burger, I don't know where you are getting your news either. However, I haven't seen any news that Jerome Adams isn't answering emails/calls from the various state officials asking for information. I also haven't seen any requests for USPHS deployments either requested or turned down. The idea that the federal government is Donald Trump comes from him, and apparently you have bought it. He is a problem, and a big one, but the idea that he is omnipotent is his. There is lots of help available. What isn't available is leadership and a desire on Trump's part to work cooperatively. That does color everything, but isn't the whole story.
So, the states have to go begging for help? How about some leadership from, you know, the leaders?
It's clear that the federal government has not thought about post-lockdown planning in any meaningful sense. Like I said above, the ideal would be for the feds, with all of their resources, to come up with a plan or a set of plans that the states could implement. But I've seen no evidence of that. What I am seeing is a lot of comments from people in the know (epidemiologists, state officials, etc.) that they have to implement the next phase themselves with little or no input from the federal government.
Even if the states aggregate their efforts into a few consortia, that is still an unnecessary duplication of efforts. We don't need 5 plans or 50 plans. We need one well-thought-out plan that covers the basics, and then states can run with that or riff off of it as need be.
And if the states are to be in charge of the reopening, then let's get them the resources they need (ie cash) to implement the next step. Republicans are doing everything they can to let the states go broke now. That twitter thread that OutsiderFan linked to noted how expensive all of this is going to be if done correctly.
Let's get this right the first time and not have an repeated series of reopenings and lockdowns if things get out of control again.
RE: How to "reopen"? - OutsiderFan - 04-14-2020
The only way the federal government under the current version of it is going to act on what we all know must be done, is for State governors to rally industry to do their bidding for them.
My SO is in the corporate events industry and was just on a conference call with MPI (Meeting Planners International). Its entire reason to exist is to support the in-person meeting industry, which is as desperate to get going again as the restaurant and sports businesses are.
There is simply no way in hell these events, that pack planes, fill hotels, and generate restaurant visits, are going to start being held unless we have these massive testing and contact tracing programs implemented. So, the Governors of these consortia states - and maybe of some other states - need to meet with the meeting, hotel, airline, restaurant, sports, movie, and probably the medical associations as well, and get those industry leaders to put METAMORPHIC pressure on Congress to act in a way that can override POTUS veto, to organize massive government buying of test supplies and coordination of a national contact tracing program.
There is NO other alternative to getting the economy moving again. None.
RE: How to "reopen"? - BostonCard - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 09:13 AM)magnus Wrote: New article from NYTimes mentioning four ways to prevent a second wave.
https://www.nytimes.com./2020/04/14/upshot/coronavirus-singapore-thinking-big.html
1) maximum testing. Test 7% of population every day -> test whole population every 2 weeks
2) monitor/ contact trace via phone.
3) community level surveillance by using medical records and other data to alert of outbreaks. And more frequent checks like everpresent thermometers
4) scaling up Singapore's contact tracing
I don't think you need to test 7% of the population every day (that's 21 million people). What you really want to be doing is surveillance, not exhaustive testing. So what that means is:
1) Testing everyone with symptoms
2) Testing contacts of those who are positive
3) Testing a randomish sample of otherwise healthy people
4) Use the results of the above three to guide the density of asymptomatic testing, with more testing in hotspots and less testing in counties where there are few positives
Your goal isn't to exhaustively identify every single case, but to find the new hotspots quickly and tamp down on the infections before they become outbreaks.
BC
RE: How to "reopen"? - cardcrimson - 04-14-2020
So, we are to base on our re-opening protocols around a tweet from a doctor that goes by firefoxx66 and has little icons on her cheek?
God help us all.
RE: How to "reopen"? - 2006alum - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 10:11 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: So, we are to base on our re-opening protocols around an instagram post from a doctor that goes by firefoxx66 and has little icons on her cheek?
God help us all.
Guess that's what happens when the federal government goes AWOL. Trump hasn't even settled on who's going to be on his grand re-opening council, let alone had that council put forward a plan for reopening. It's appalling to me that I've now read 3-4 really well developed plans for re-opening provided by think tanks and universities, 10 governors are hard at work at this, and the federal government doesn't even have a team in place yet.
RE: How to "reopen"? - BostonCard - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 10:11 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: So, we are to base on our re-opening protocols around an instagram post from a doctor that goes by firefoxx66 and has little icons on her cheek?
God help us all.
It's twitter, not instagram, you ignorant slut!
Also, the doctor who goes by firefoxx66 and has little icons in her cheek is a post-doc at the University of Basel (https://www.biozentrum.unibas.ch/research/researchgroups/group/unit/neher/) and has 14 published peer reviewed articles about viral transmission dynamics, including three on SARS-CoV2 (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=hodcroft+e&sort=date&size=100). I don't want to make a blind appeal to authority, but she's probably more qualified to speak on the subject matter than your average message board rando. Moreover, if you read the content of her thread (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1248939530939490304.html), she notes that neither wholesale lifting of the lockdown orders nor maintaining strict shelter in place orders is tenable for the long term. For example, as many here have commented upon, she noted that to "Continue strict restrictions until a vaccine" would mean that "While this may contain the virus, it's simply unsustainable. People will start breaking lockdowns, & the economic cost will grow unbearable. Deaths will rise from other causes, like suicide, or bloodclots caused by immobility." Basically she is advocating lifting the lockdown as track and trace is put into effect, which is what a lot of us have been advocating.
BC
RE: How to "reopen"? - OutsiderFan - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 10:11 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: So, we are to base on our re-opening protocols around an instagram post from a doctor that goes by firefoxx66 and has little icons on her cheek?
God help us all.
First of all, it's Twitter. Second, I hope you have your tongue in cheek because she should be taken seriously, give she works with The guy who did this: [tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321[/tweet]
But even aside from that, it's just common f*cking sense based on what we know. How anyone could even question her thoughts is beyond my ability to comprehend. You can open things up, but if that's going to lead to more infections which is going to lead to more people not wanting to be around other people because they fear infection, what difference is that going to make? Until there is more testing and contact tracing, we are stuck in the mud. We don't know a whole lot right now, but this is one of the few things we absolutely know for certain.
RE: How to "reopen"? - cardcrimson - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 10:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: It's twitter, not instagram, you ignorant slut!
Sorry, though I edited it before I saw your comment. . . .Don't use twitter, on instagram sparingly as my daughter has a couple of accounts and those have been on my mind of late. Gotta admit, though, you guys were pretty fast to jump on a simple, irrelevant mistake!
As for her credentials, I'm sure they're impressive (or at least relevant). Sometimes appearances do matter to be taken seriously, kind of like Tampa Bay's original "Howard Johnson" ice cream uniforms, or the baby blues of UCLA, or even the all red pajama look Stanford went with several decades ago.
RE: How to "reopen"? - 2006alum - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 10:41 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(04-14-2020, 10:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: It's twitter, not instagram, you ignorant slut!
Sorry, though I edited it before I saw your comment. . . .Don't use twitter, on instagram sparingly as my daughter has a couple of accounts and those have been on my mind of late.
As for her credentials, I'm sure they're impressive (or at least relevant). Sometimes appearances do matter to be taken seriously, kind of like Tampa Bay's original "Howard Johnson" ice cream uniforms, or the baby blues of UCLA, or even the all red pajama look Stanford went with several decades ago.
I doubt when she set up her twitter account handle that she could ever imagined that one day thoughtful, concerned citizens would be looking to her for guidance rather than to the head of the federal government. I've found MDs, immunologists, and public health experts on twitter to be far, far more informative than anything I've read in more traditional media sources, because they care only about facts, not headlines, clicks, or "ratings."
RE: How to "reopen"? - BostonCard - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 10:41 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(04-14-2020, 10:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: It's twitter, not instagram, you ignorant slut!
Sorry, though I edited it before I saw your comment. . . .Don't use twitter, on instagram sparingly as my daughter has a couple of accounts and those have been on my mind of late. Gotta admit, though, you guys were pretty fast to jump on a simple, irrelevant mistake!
I thought the embedded reference to Saturday Night Live would have clearly established that my admonition was a joke. Of course it was an irrelevant mistake, which is why the bulk of my response was substantive after I was done having fun.
BC
RE: How to "reopen"? - cardcrimson - 04-14-2020
(04-14-2020, 10:52 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(04-14-2020, 10:41 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(04-14-2020, 10:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: It's twitter, not instagram, you ignorant slut!
Sorry, though I edited it before I saw your comment. . . .Don't use twitter, on instagram sparingly as my daughter has a couple of accounts and those have been on my mind of late. Gotta admit, though, you guys were pretty fast to jump on a simple, irrelevant mistake!
I thought the embedded reference to Saturday Night Live would have clearly established that my admonition was a joke. Of course it was an irrelevant mistake, which is why the bulk of my response was substantive after I was done having fun.
BC
It was, and taken as such. Amazed at the lightning speed of the corrections, though. Almost as if a dog whistle went off somewhere. . .