Why restaurants are so F'ed - Printable Version
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RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - magnus - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 10:09 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: At least with restaurants, you know the people you're sitting with. . . .My initial reaction to this was...not if you're eating at one of the hole in the wall Chinese restaurants or communal dining restaurants. That got me to thinking...what does it look like in China at the restaurants where you used to have people hovering to replace the current seated diners (or is that a dated snapshot of what the eating scene in certain areas of China was like up until this year?)
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - SamuelMcF - 04-16-2020
I've heard DoorDash/GrubHub/Uber Eats, etc. are sort of predicting the future of "frontless kitchens" - restaurants that are essentially delivery/takeout-only, which reduces overhead. I believe people will still go out for that traditional experience for sure, but I can see how the industry could "polarize" a little bit, with either those higher-end dining experiences people are happy and willing to pay for, or takeout/delivery kitchens with tiny storefronts and little to no seating. Especially in these times the "frontless kitchen" model seems to be the way to go.
You're sort of seeing the same polarization with movie theaters; more are embracing the luxury model with reservable recliner seats, alcohol and all sorts of fancier snacks (gelato, anyone?) available, and some are even serving full-on meals directly to your seat before the film. Others are either going cheap-o or smaller/more niche. Your "standard" theater with normal first-come-first-serve seats, $7 popcorn, and the ticket itself being $15 is on the decline due to all the at-home options, so theaters have to adapt to give you something more unique.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - Farm93 - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 11:20 AM)magnus Wrote:Remember the USA and the EU have the big problems that require extended safer at home policies.(04-16-2020, 10:09 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: At least with restaurants, you know the people you're sitting with. . . .My initial reaction to this was...not if you're eating at one of the hole in the wall Chinese restaurants or communal dining restaurants. That got me to thinking...what does it look like in China at the restaurants where you used to have people hovering to replace the current seated diners (or is that a dated snapshot of what the eating scene in certain areas of China was like up until this year?)
Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, Japan and others have been aggressive with testing and tracing since late January, so life looks more or less like normal across a lot of Asia. No music concerts or spectators at sporting events, but otherwise things probably look similar enough to those living like we are here in the USA.
All in Asia are a bit worried about the persistence of COVID19 to re-emerge, but for now most countries are able to stay ahead of big problems because of their commitment to test & trace.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - stupac2 - 04-16-2020
(04-15-2020, 10:40 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(04-15-2020, 07:59 PM)stupac2 Wrote: I had this suspicion, but it's nice to see the numbers laid out: https://medium.com/@joelleparenteau/why-are-restaurants-so-fucked-ca07c4624745
I'd be interested to see how places are managing to survive doing takeout only, even reducing the staff and suspending some of those fixed monthly costs, the reduction in volume has to be brutal.
I'm sure this is just my misinterpretation of your posts, but you seem quick to highlight how economy is screwed no matter what ("nice" to see numbers laid out?), while also shooting down attempts to re-open, even if modestly.* Using restaurants, I'm not sure why some can't re-open subject to seating restrictions and other precautions that we know will be put in place. Am sure menus will be on patrons' handhelds and/or on signage in restaurant; gloves worn; maybe even masks. (Fundamentally, I don't see what increased risk is in a person delivering your food at a table vs. delivering it to your home. . . but perhaps I'm just being dense).
Now, whether anyone would go to make it worthwhile is another question altogether. But from a risk standpoint, I'm not sure why some kind of attempts or trial runs, if you will, can't be implemented.
* I view a couple other posters as coming from same angle, so I'm serious when I say it's probably my misread.
I thought this article was interesting, that's why I posted it. I don't have some kind of grand agenda here, it would be pretty stupid to be posting stuff here in hopes of... what, exactly?
I thought my positioning on "reopening" was pretty clear. I want to do what the experts think is best for everyone involved. You might be reading more into it than that because there's a substantial number of people (here and elsewhere) who don't want that and whose reasoning is muddled or fallacious. That's what I take exception to.
I've also said that based on my understanding of the rationales of the experts, I doubt that we'll be able to do this or that activity until a vaccine (or whatever other milestone), but I think I've been pretty clear that that's just my read on the situation. Generally speaking when the relevant political/medical/epidemiological figures have addressed similar topics they've said similar things, so I don't think I'm far off, but it's not a strongly held opinion. I'd be thrilled if things were back to normal by May 1st, and if we had sports as normal in the fall. I'm not optimistic it will happen.
In the meantime figuring out what the impacts will be is useful and necessary, and this is relevant to that.
I'd be interested to see a similar accounting from a restaurant that's managing to make things work on a takeout-only model, or an exploration of other viable business models besides the "just charge more" mentioned in the article. It sounds like some people are thinking along those lines already, perhaps someone will write it up sometime soon.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - magnus - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 11:55 AM)Farm93 Wrote:(04-16-2020, 11:20 AM)magnus Wrote:Remember the USA and the EU have the big problems that require extended safer at home policies.(04-16-2020, 10:09 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: At least with restaurants, you know the people you're sitting with. . . .My initial reaction to this was...not if you're eating at one of the hole in the wall Chinese restaurants or communal dining restaurants. That got me to thinking...what does it look like in China at the restaurants where you used to have people hovering to replace the current seated diners (or is that a dated snapshot of what the eating scene in certain areas of China was like up until this year?)
Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, Japan and others have been aggressive with testing and tracing since late January, so life looks more or less like normal across a lot of Asia. No music concerts or spectators at sporting events, but otherwise things probably look similar enough to those living like we are here in the USA.
All in Asia are a bit worried about the persistence of COVID19 to re-emerge, but for now most countries are able to stay ahead of big problems because of their commitment to test & trace.
I wouldn't label Japan as a success. Their numbers are jumping now (and their PM is getting blasted). Taiwan yes. South Korea yes. (I haven't followed Thailand recently, but initially, they stopped reporting cases, some say, because they did not want to lose their tourism revenue, which if true, makes their numbers tough to trust). I believe, in Taiwan, restaurants/stores are temperature checking everyone that comes in and everyone is wearing a mask. I would have added Singapore to the group, but they've lost control and are trying to regain it (fingers crossed).
However, my comment was about China, where the home restrictions were much more severe. I wonder what their previously overpacked restaurants look like now that things are opening again. I just saw a picture of a popular tea shop in China (I think it was in Wuhan, but I wasn't paying close attention to the presentation) that had numerous people milling about outside. Looked like they were about 3 feet apart. But to an untrained eye, that still looks crowded.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
I probably should have explained. The index patient (a patient known to have been infected with SARS) was seated in seat 14E. After the patient tested positive, the public health officials did a contact tracing and followed all the other passengers. It then found out which seats those passengers were seated in. 18 other passengers and two crewmembers subsequently developed SARS.
Interestingly, neither of the passengers seated directly next to the index patient got sick, but two patients in the row ahead did. Also, one patient five rows behind the index patient got sick, as did two patients seven rows ahead. It is not possible to tell exactly what mechanism resulted in the other passengers catching SARS. Here's some info from the discussion in the article:
Quote:The observation that the passengers who became infected were clustered in the few rows directly in front of or behind the ill passenger, rather than being randomly distributed throughout the aircraft, is consistent with the pattern described in other cases in which a respiratory pathogen was transmitted on board an aircraft13 and lends further plausibility to the theory that transmission occurred during the flight. The risk to passengers was greatest if they were seated in the same row as the index patient or within three rows in front of him. The greater concentration of persons who became infected in front of the index patient than behind him may point to the role of coughing in transmission, causing a combination of aerosol and small-droplet spread.
Large-droplet spread is often believed to occur within 36 in. of a patient,14 and this cutoff has been used to define exposure to SARS in other investigations.15 However, the distance covered by three economy-class rows on a Boeing 737-300 is 2.3 m (90 in.). On this aircraft, 90 percent of the persons who became ill were seated more than 36 in. away from the index patient, so airborne, small-particle, or other remote transmission may be more straightforward explanations for the observed distribution of cases. Although many respiratory pathogens are primarily transmitted through direct contact and large-droplet spread, a few — such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis, influenzavirus, and measles virus — may also be transmitted through airborne routes.16 Other potential modes of transmission include contact with contaminated fomites, contact resulting from the movement of the passengers closer together during the flight, and contact occurring in waiting areas or lines immediately before boarding or after disembarkation. Hand contact might have been expected to increase the risk among passengers who sat in aisle seats, but we did not find such a pattern.
BC
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - magnus - 04-16-2020
Guessing this was pre-mask awareness but it's a possibility that P0's neighbor's wore masks. Or, maybe they had their overhead vents blowing (wild guesses as to what may have helped). Or could immunity be a reason?
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 10:31 AM)BostonCard Wrote: This was from the SARS epidemic:
BC
![[Image: nejmoa031349_f2.jpeg]](https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2003/nejm_2003.349.issue-25/nejmoa031349/production/images/img_medium/nejmoa031349_f2.jpeg)
FWIW, I find this chart impossible to believe. Since the beginnings of frequent flyer programs, when have first class seats ever been left unoccupied? Only one first class passenger? Pfffft!
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 01:47 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: FWIW, I find this chart impossible to believe. Since the beginnings of frequent flyer programs, when have first class seats ever been left unoccupied? Only one first class passenger? Pfffft!
LOL, my first thought was that even my lowly silver status would have gotten me to the front of that flight! But also, remember this was back in 2004.
BC
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - Hurlburt88 - 04-16-2020
For that period of time in Asia, empty first class seats make sense
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 02:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote:If the flight was indeed in Asia, perhaps. In the early 90's, I put 100k domestically on United. For that honor, I got to sit next to the Indian Chief from the Village People and have Kathy Ireland step over me, twice. Both great experiences. Sat behind Gary Hart, boy, he hadn't aged well.(04-16-2020, 01:47 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: FWIW, I find this chart impossible to believe. Since the beginnings of frequent flyer programs, when have first class seats ever been left unoccupied? Only one first class passenger? Pfffft!
LOL, my first thought was that even my lowly silver status would have gotten me to the front of that flight! But also, remember this was back in 2004.
BC
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - fullmetal - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 11:43 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote: I've heard DoorDash/GrubHub/Uber Eats, etc. are sort of predicting the future of "frontless kitchens" - restaurants that are essentially delivery/takeout-only, which reduces overhead.
Look up "cloud kitchens" or "ghost kitchens" that masquerade as brick-and-mortar restaurants but only exist online as a food delivery option and operate out of sketchy industrial spaces.
https://techcrunch.com/2019/06/28/a-rare-glimpse-into-the-sweeping-and-potentially-troubling-cloud-kitchens-trend/
https://www.businessinsider.com/cloud-kitchens-travis-kalanick-san-francisco-location-address-pictures-2019-11
I've seen a lot of restaurants around me declare indefinite closures -- not even offering takeout-only options. Not a good sign :(
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - OutsiderFan - 04-17-2020
This isn't really restaurant related per se, but the discussion and implications of this discussion made me think...
It's kind of amazing how little a shift in nature (.08mm virus with an RNA code) can impact so many things so much. But I'd like to postulate that this demonstrates how dumb we have chosen to organize our society.
The reason I am an entrepreneur is because I believe in self-determination. The idea that we can't grow/raise all our own food in any sort of pragmatic way (because farming is hard work), and we are effective slaves to modern economic systems, is upsetting to me. I want to be in control of my own life, free to do what I want (without impinging on the rights of others), not dependent on anyone for anything, and if I am, be forced to form trusted partnerships with those who can provide me what I need and me what they need. When forming partnerships with others, there are always tradeoffs, but we need incentives to make the wisest choices, not the most instantly or superficially gratifying.
I sincerely hope one of the biggest lessons we learn as a human society from this debacle is the frailty of global economics. The more locally sourced and produced things are, the less vulnerable we are to disruptions in our lives. Because every time we scale something up and cut out a rung of economic ecosystem, we stack more cards on our ever escalating house of them.
We simply must learn everything carries a cost, and most of the time the cheaper short term cost always ends up being most expensive. We can pay less up-front and much more later. Or we can pay more up-front and nothing later. Stupidly, as a society, we seem to always choose less cost now and more later. It makes absolutely zero sense.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - g1313 - 04-17-2020
We have a free capitalist system, so if you want to grow your own food, what's stopping you? The other nice thing about our free society is that others who do not share your opinions or abilities can make different choices. This seems like a feature, not a bug.
(04-17-2020, 07:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: This isn't really restaurant related per se, but the discussion and implications of this discussion made me think...
It's kind of amazing how little a shift in nature (.08mm virus with an RNA code) can impact so many things so much. But I'd like to postulate that this demonstrates how dumb we have chosen to organize our society.
The reason I am an entrepreneur is because I believe in self-determination. The idea that we can't grow/raise all our own food in any sort of pragmatic way (because farming is hard work), and we are effective slaves to modern economic systems, is upsetting to me. I want to be in control of my own life, free to do what I want (without impinging on the rights of others), not dependent on anyone for anything, and if I am, be forced to form trusted partnerships with those who can provide me what I need and me what they need. When forming partnerships with others, there are always tradeoffs, but we need incentives to make the wisest choices, not the most instantly or superficially gratifying.
I sincerely hope one of the biggest lessons we learn as a human society from this debacle is the frailty of global economics. The more locally sourced and produced things are, the less vulnerable we are to disruptions in our lives. Because every time we scale something up and cut out a rung of economic ecosystem, we stack more cards on our ever escalating house of them.
We simply must learn everything carries a cost, and most of the time the cheaper short term cost always ends up being most expensive. We can pay less up-front and much more later. Or we can pay more up-front and nothing later. Stupidly, as a society, we seem to always choose less cost now and more later. It makes absolutely zero sense.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - Mick - 04-17-2020
This guy was pretty self-sufficient. Harvard grad, too.
He lived in this Montana cabin:
![[Image: 440px-Unibomber_shack.JPG]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/76/Unibomber_shack.JPG/440px-Unibomber_shack.JPG)
Taught at Berkeley.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - cardcrimson - 04-17-2020
(04-17-2020, 07:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: This isn't really restaurant related per se, but the discussion and implications of this discussion made me think...
It's kind of amazing how little a shift in nature (.08mm virus with an RNA code) can impact so many things so much. But I'd like to postulate that this demonstrates how dumb we have chosen to organize our society.
The reason I am an entrepreneur is because I believe in self-determination. The idea that we can't grow/raise all our own food in any sort of pragmatic way (because farming is hard work), and we are effective slaves to modern economic systems, is upsetting to me. I want to be in control of my own life, free to do what I want (without impinging on the rights of others), not dependent on anyone for anything, and if I am, be forced to form trusted partnerships with those who can provide me what I need and me what they need. When forming partnerships with others, there are always tradeoffs, but we need incentives to make the wisest choices, not the most instantly or superficially gratifying.
I sincerely hope one of the biggest lessons we learn as a human society from this debacle is the frailty of global economics. The more locally sourced and produced things are, the less vulnerable we are to disruptions in our lives. Because every time we scale something up and cut out a rung of economic ecosystem, we stack more cards on our ever escalating house of them.
We simply must learn everything carries a cost, and most of the time the cheaper short term cost always ends up being most expensive. We can pay less up-front and much more later. Or we can pay more up-front and nothing later. Stupidly, as a society, we seem to always choose less cost now and more later. It makes absolutely zero sense.
Wow, what an incredibly nativist position you've staked out. Sounds almost Trumpian. America first. . . .
Couldn't agree more.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - oldalum - 04-17-2020
my former classmate and Stanford alum, Mike Shuman, has been writing about local investing and production for many years. His latest book is "Put Your Money Where Your Life Is." web site
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - M T - 04-18-2020
I don't expect to go to any restaurants for a long time. I probably wouldn't buy much in the way of restaurant gift cards.
But, I might donate to a charity to feed the needy with food bought from a restaurant I want to support. Is that being done much?
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - fullmetal - 04-19-2020
You couldn't donate the food yourself due to health code type issues, but no...I have not heard of any partnerships between soup kitchens and restaurants that do such a thing. Probably not enough scale to be fair to each of the needy... you could purchase gift cards and hand them out yourself though.
RE: Why restaurants are so F'ed - g1313 - 04-19-2020
World central kitchen is doing this but not targeting a specific restaurant. https://wck.org/
This org was founded by celebrity chef Jose Andres and has been involved in various disaster relief around the world, like the Haiti earthquake and Puerto Rico hurricane. I read that they are also working with the California government to provide food to homeless who are being housed in local motels.