Vietnam figured it out - Printable Version
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RE: Vietnam figured it out - Genuine Realist - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 01:35 PM)Goose Wrote:It's a bit much to castigate Bush for the hypothetically inadequate response to the hypothetical pandemic.(04-23-2020, 12:13 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.
Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.
I would still leave Bush in my list. That he was aware of the issues and did in fact to create a response plan is very much to his credit. If that plan would have generated actionable data sooner then possibly he would have acted sooner. He also may have been a man who was more disposed toward action than other presidents. However reading a book wouldn't remove his reliance on the experts that work for him or make him an expert on epidemics. He isn't going to read detailed reports on respiratory diseases per person in the US every day, or even every week. Nor should he. He has "people" for that. They would have to come to him and forcefully recommend action. Until they did that, nothing would happen. This is not saying it would have been a failing on these President's part. That is just how the system works and kind of has to work. You better hope you have good people working for you that you trust, who have good judgement and who are willing to take the career risks necessary to make correct, timely, and clear recommendations.
An example of this is that Angela Merlel greatly benefited because the State Of Bavaria health service jumped right on the "hot spots" in their state and made an aggressive set of reports outlining what they found. Lots of credit for the German response has to go to them.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Mick - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 07:29 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: I had read that a disaster with SARS in 2015 had led to a complete reconfiguration of the pandemic response in South Korea. I hadn't realized that applied to all the nations that ring China.
Consider the implication. This is the SECOND time China has done this - within five years.
For reasons of domestic public dialog, many here are reluctant to blame China. I don't think that this applies to any other nation in the world.
The CCP's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic vis-a-vis their interaction with other nations leads me to believe they are an outlaw nation. And not just because of all the other evidence, including their lend-and-foreclose practices in South America and Africa, their imprisonment of the Uighers, their absolute disregard and flouting of international IP laws and their constant spying on America (and every other country in the world).
Power + Size + Manufacturing Control + Complete Lack of Ethics. It's funny, we're so quick to castigate American politicians on the left and right because they are easy targets and there is no blowback. But watching Americans bend over backwards for the CCP (I'm looking at you NBA, among others) because it's an actual political risk...wow.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - BostonCard - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 01:56 PM)Mick Wrote: The CCP's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic vis-a-vis their interaction with other nations leads me to believe they are an outlaw nation. And not just because of all the other evidence, including their lend-and-foreclose practices in South America and Africa, their imprisonment of the Uighers, their absolute disregard and flouting of international IP laws and their constant spying on America (and every other country in the world).
Power + Size + Manufacturing Control + Complete Lack of Ethics. It's funny, we're so quick to castigate American politicians on the left and right because they are easy targets and there is no blowback. But watching Americans bend over backwards for the CCP (I'm looking at you NBA, among others) because it's an actual political risk...wow.
There is no question that the CCP is a vile regime. Nobody should take my criticism of US leaders as any sort of justification for the CCP. It's only because US leaders are accountable to voters and as part of a healthy democracy should be held to account that I chose to hold them to account, whereas Chinese leaders are not accountable, which is why it can be such a vile regime.
BC
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Farm93 - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 01:15 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:(04-23-2020, 01:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote:I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea. I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this.(04-23-2020, 12:13 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.That's not completely accurate. The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook. Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns.
Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.
Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security. I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.
There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics. They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness. I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.
I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany. My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS. COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA. However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.
I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.
The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.
Sucks to be us sheltering in place until May or June, but that's the price we are all paying for our sluggish response and multi-week hubris and denial from Pennsylvania Ave, "Main Street" and even Wall Street.
(04-23-2020, 01:11 PM)Goose Wrote:(04-23-2020, 01:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote: There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics. They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness. I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.Could you post a link to a version of these playbooks? I would like to give them a read.
Ask and you shall receive. The Obama Playbook is the 69 page document at the top of this politico article.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Genuine Realist - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 02:13 PM)Farm93 Wrote:(04-23-2020, 01:15 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea. I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this.(04-23-2020, 01:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote: [quote="Genuine Realist" pid='278281' dateline='1587669199']That's not completely accurate. The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook. Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns.
It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.
Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.
Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security. I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.
There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics. They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness. I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.
I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany. My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS. COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA. However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.
I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.
The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.
Sucks to be us sheltering in place until May or June, but that's the price we are all paying for our sluggish response and multi-week hubris and denial from Pennsylvania Ave, "Main Street" and even Wall Street.
(04-23-2020, 01:11 PM)Goose Wrote:(04-23-2020, 01:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote: There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics. They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness. I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.Could you post a link to a version of these playbooks? I would like to give them a read.
Ask and you shall receive. The Obama Playbook is the 69 page document at the top of this politico article.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285
[/quote]
This is why history is so tough to write in a time of politicized journalism. Read a little further down, and you find out that the plans weren't abandoned, but reformulated. This is s somewhat akin to the canard that Trump disbanded the Pandemic Task Force, when the reality seems to be that it was combined into a more generic emergency task force, since many of these emergencies have much in common. (Tim Morrison, a White House official took the time to write an op-ed in the Washington Post to correct the record on this, not that it did him any good.) So if you're all conscientious, you're going to have to figure out whether the complaints actually represent a loss of efficiency, or just a bitter loser on a bureaucratic turf war. If you believe as a matter of faith that Trump can do no good. it helps your own efficiency of thought. But it is not terribly impressive to the rest of us. Actual evaluation requires more time and background than any of us have. That's why history is a profession.
Of course, all the crisis planning in the world doesn't do you any good if you don't know there's a crisis. The more I read, the more I'm struck by the quantum of activity that begins about January 28th. People begin to buy face masks in bulk. A White House staffer writes a memo on January 29th. Trump imposes a travel ban on the 31st.
My sense is that the critical factoid is the date of the social chat by the mainline Chinese doctors, the ones who were so unfairly sanctioned by the government. I'd lay odds it was about then. I hope they get the immortality they deserve. Then, in early February, the Italians chime in, and the rest you know.
(04-23-2020, 02:13 PM)Farm93 Wrote:(04-23-2020, 01:15 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea. I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this.(04-23-2020, 01:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote: [quote="Genuine Realist" pid='278281' dateline='1587669199']That's not completely accurate. The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook. Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns.
It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.
Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.
Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security. I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.
There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics. They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness. I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.
I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany. My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS. COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA. However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.
I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.
The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.
Sucks to be us sheltering in place until May or June, but that's the price we are all paying for our sluggish response and multi-week hubris and denial from Pennsylvania Ave, "Main Street" and even Wall Street.
The clusters you mention were not isolated. And - correct me if i am wrong - i believe Germans are also sheltering in place, and for pretty much the same duration.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - magnus - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 02:13 PM)Farm93 Wrote: The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.
If we're talking about the first US case in WA, I found out recently (on that PBS special) that there was extensive tracing and testing done. They tracked 60 close contacts of the first person (close contacts defined as those who had been with the person for 10 minutes or more) and had them all tested. I was surprised this was not publicized more as I was under the impression that nothing had happened (or at least the bare minimum)
Maybe the cutoff for "close contact" was not aggressive enough?
RE: Vietnam figured it out - BostonCard - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 02:50 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Of course, all the crisis planning in the world doesn't do you any good if you don't know there's a crisis. The more I read, the more I'm struck by the quantum of activity that begins about January 28th. People begin to buy face masks in bulk. A White House staffer writes a memo on January 29th. Trump imposes a travel ban on the 31st.
Except for the part where Trump was briefed by Alex Azar on the developing pandemic on Jan 18 (link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-chiefs-early-missteps-set-back-coronavirus-response-11587570514) Azar himself had been alerted by the CDC 2 weeks earlier. And the WHO issuing its first situation on January 21. Moreover, Trump imposed the travel ban and then slept through the month of February, which is my problem. Whatever else you think, he was aware enough of the situation by the end of January to try to do something about it, but he didn't follow through by doing all the other things that I've written at length about, and that would have been required to keep this from going out of control.
Here's a list of Trump comments as the epidemic spread:
Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”
Feb. 10: “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
Feb. 27: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.” (to be fair to Trump, this statement is factually correct, so maybe exclude it)
March 9: “The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power ... to inflame the CoronaVirus situation.” (speaks to some people's point about this being a bipartisan blindness)
March 10: “We’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
It wasn't until March 14 that Trump finally acknowledged the seriousness of the pandemic, when he declared a national emergency: “We’re using the full power of the federal government to defeat the virus, and that’s what we’ve been doing.”
BC
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Snorlax94 - 04-23-2020
There's a detailed article in the NYTimes discussing the first case in Seattle and the contact tracing that was done.
While it sounds likely that he was the index patient in Seattle, recently, they discovered a nearly-identical virus circulating in British Columbia. It is possible someone else who had traveled from Wuhan in the same timeframe was the root of the Washington (and subsequent national) spread, so it was not necessarily a failure in contact tracing.
"In recent days, the sequencing of new cases has revealed a surprising new possibility. A series of cases in British Columbia carried a genetic footprint very similar to the case of the Wuhan traveler. That opened up the possibility that someone could have carried that same branch of the virus from Wuhan to British Columbia or somewhere else in the region at nearly the same time. Perhaps it was that person whose illness had sparked the fateful outbreak."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-sequencing.html
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Genuine Realist - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 03:23 PM)BostonCard Wrote:That is a rather unusual interpretation of the article, to put it mildly. The gist damns Azar in about every way possible. At that January 18tb briefing, he also reassured the Administration that he had all the resources necessary for containment. The tune changed at the end of January , when just about everything changed. Some sort of tipping point occurred on the 28th.(04-23-2020, 02:50 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Of course, all the crisis planning in the world doesn't do you any good if you don't know there's a crisis. The more I read, the more I'm struck by the quantum of activity that begins about January 28th. People begin to buy face masks in bulk. A White House staffer writes a memo on January 29th. Trump imposes a travel ban on the 31st.
Except for the part where Trump was briefed by Alex Azar on the developing pandemic on Jan 18 (link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-chiefs-early-missteps-set-back-coronavirus-response-11587570514) Azar himself had been alerted by the CDC 2 weeks earlier. And the WHO issuing its first situation on January 21. Moreover, Trump imposed the travel ban and then slept through the month of February, which is my problem. Whatever else you think, he was aware enough of the situation by the end of January to try to do something about it, but he didn't follow through by doing all the other things that I've written at length about, and that would have been required to keep this from going out of control.
Here's a list of Trump comments as the epidemic spread:
Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”
Feb. 10: “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
Feb. 27: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.” (to be fair to Trump, this statement is factually correct, so maybe exclude it)
March 9: “The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power ... to inflame the CoronaVirus situation.” (speaks to some people's point about this being a bipartisan blindness)
March 10: “We’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
It wasn't until March 14 that Trump finally acknowledged the seriousness of the pandemic, when he declared a national emergency: “We’re using the full power of the federal government to defeat the virus, and that’s what we’ve been doing.”
BC
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Goose - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 02:13 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Ask and you shall receive. The Obama Playbook is the 69 page document at the top of this politico article.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285
Thank you very much for the rersponse. As it happens, I had already seen this document. I just wanted to ensure there wasn't another one out there somewhere. I am going to ask everybody here, first, did you actually read this document in detail? It is titled a "playbook", but as far as I can see, it lists a lot of interesting questions that could be asked and then in the appendix lists some (but certainly not all) of the powers that the Executive branch can use to respond. What it does not do is attempt to tie the answer to any given question to what actions should be performed or why this question matters. If also clearly says nothing about what to do if the answer to any given question is "We don't know". It is true that many of the questions are clearly relevant, and having them listed in one place could be useful. As far as recommending any course of action in response to any given answer, this document does not.
I would liken this document to a book about football that lists all the possible interesting questions one could ask about football. Then, a short listing of some (but certainly not all) of the plays that somebody (not exactly clear who) could call, without any discussion of advantages, disadvantages, or likely outcomes, or really how the plays relate to the questions. No discussion of necessary personnel or their requite skills or even where such players can be found. If a coach picks up this playbook and expects to play somebody next week using it, GFL. In short, I find this "playbook" interesting but of little utility in actually DOING anything. I fully realize that writing "Epidemics for Dummies" isn't real easy, but this document certainly doesn't do so. It literally raises many more questions than it answers. That may be fine, in that it is a complex topic. However, I see no way this "playbook" is of any use except as possibly a guide to further study. "Following" or "executing" this document is IMHO a meaningless concept. Others comments welcome!
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Farm93 - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 02:50 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: The clusters you mention were not isolated. And - correct me if i am wrong - i believe Germans are also sheltering in place, and for pretty much the same duration.
Happy to do it
You are wrong.
Merkel opened up the small businesses earlier this week. Has issued cautions to not get careless and reckless, but they are out and about because they ramped up tracing.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/german-shops-open-angela-merkel-warns-second-wave-coronavirus
I would happily take the German situation, but our lastest press briefing miracle is to hope for a summer to kill the pandemic in both the northern and southern hemispheres at the same time. :(
Germany may ultimately fall back to our stage...a bit like chutes and ladders, but right now they are a few steps ahead of the USA thanks to an aggressive increase in....wait for it....testing and tracing!
RE: Vietnam figured it out - dabigv13 - 04-23-2020
Our latest press briefing miracle is to inject our bodies with bleach and also somehow get UV radiation inside of our bodies to kill the virus.
But I suppose Clinton and Bush and Obama would have all fucked up our national response just as badly as our current genius has, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Goose - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 04:29 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Germany may ultimately fall back to our stage...a bit like chutes and ladders, but right now they are a few steps ahead of the USA thanks to an aggressive increase in....wait for it....testing and tracing!Absolutely true, but at least equally importantly they were in a better position in contract tracing and testing at the state level from the start. They didn't have to improvise their initial response and can augment existing capabilities. In the US, we are almost starting from scratch in many counties.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - dabigv13 - 04-23-2020
We are not even trying to build our trace and test capabilities before states are relaxing measures, even while at or near the peak of their local outbreaks. These are choices being made, fully conscious of the general contours of this disease. I don't think it's politically very smart to signal to all your core base of older voters that their lives are expendable, and then proceed with policies that will kill lots of them, but again, they're led by a guy with a real big brain so I'm sure they know what they're doing.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - BostonCard - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 03:55 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: That is a rather unusual interpretation of the article, to put it mildly. The gist damns Azar in about every way possible. At that January 18tb briefing, he also reassured the Administration that he had all the resources necessary for containment. The tune changed at the end of January , when just about everything changed. Some sort of tipping point occurred on the 28th.
Yes, the article damns Azar, which I noted when I first posted it. And who does Azar report to? Remember "Only the best people"? It's the job of a leader to hire people on the basis of competence rather than loyalty (this seems to be a recurring problem with this president) and it's the job of a leader to cut through the bullshit when an underling is buttering you up. So yeah, Azar's failures reflect on Trump.
BC
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Farm93 - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 04:22 PM)Goose Wrote:I suspect you realize the playbook is literally just the starting document. In all administrations there are transition teams that review the greatest current threats and share the current organizational knowledge about those threats. Global pandemics were high on the list for POTUS43 to POTUS44 and for POTUS44 to POTUS45. Those conversations, I believe, are generally confidential. Sadly, most of those in the POTUS45 team have left government, and it is not very clear what type of transition or succession planning took place as they left.(04-23-2020, 02:13 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Ask and you shall receive. The Obama Playbook is the 69 page document at the top of this politico article.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285
Thank you very much for the rersponse. As it happens, I had already seen this document. I just wanted to ensure there wasn't another one out there somewhere. I am going to ask everybody here, first, did you actually read this document in detail? It is titled a "playbook", but as far as I can see, it lists a lot of interesting questions that could be asked and then in the appendix lists some (but certainly not all) of the powers that the Executive branch can use to respond. What it does not do is attempt to tie the answer to any given question to what actions should be performed or why this question matters. If also clearly says nothing about what to do if the answer to any given question is "We don't know". It is true that many of the questions are clearly relevant, and having them listed in one place could be useful. As far as recommending any course of action in response to any given answer, this document does not.
I would liken this document to a book about football that lists all the possible interesting questions one could ask about football. Then, a short listing of some (but certainly not all) of the plays that somebody (not exactly clear who) could call, without any discussion of advantages, disadvantages, or likely outcomes, or really how the plays relate to the questions. No discussion of necessary personnel or their requite skills or even where such players can be found. If a coach picks up this playbook and expects to play somebody next week using it, GFL. In short, I find this "playbook" interesting but of little utility in actually DOING anything. I fully realize that writing "Epidemics for Dummies" isn't real easy, but this document certainly doesn't do so. It literally raises many more questions than it answers. That may be fine, in that it is a complex topic. However, I see no way this "playbook" is of any use except as possibly a guide to further study. "Following" or "executing" this document is IMHO a meaningless concept. Others comments welcome!
The real goal with this type of document is to get the next administration to understand the types of questions they should consider. Over time any step by step type sports playbook would not be applicable. A bit like running the 1985 Chicago Bears Playbook in 2019. An organization needs to understand the fundamental questions and challenges and then formulate their own plans. However, winning the game does remain the goal. So the questions are more timeless than literal step by step instructions.
However it has been clear from those in POTUS43 and POTUS43 that everyone understood for pandemics the key to everything is clearly to test and trace as much as possible while asking questions rather than assuming the oceans and physical distance will be sufficient.
POTUS43 and POTUS44 both ran simulations with their pandemic response teams so that the government had some level of organizational awareness about what to do generally as every virus will present a little differently.
POTUS45 had those simulations at least at the start of the administration. For whatever reason POTUS45 and his core team did not allocate a lot of time or resources to that team and threat area.
It is all tragic and ironic because the international hotel and leisure industries are getting crushed, so until it started I would have thought preventing a global pandemic with the potential to destroy the tourism industries might have been of some interest to the Trump family.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Goose - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 04:50 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(04-23-2020, 03:55 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: That is a rather unusual interpretation of the article, to put it mildly. The gist damns Azar in about every way possible. At that January 18tb briefing, he also reassured the Administration that he had all the resources necessary for containment. The tune changed at the end of January , when just about everything changed. Some sort of tipping point occurred on the 28th.
Yes, the article damns Azar, which I noted when I first posted it. And who does Azar report to? Remember "Only the best people"? It's the job of a leader to hire people on the basis of competence rather than loyalty (this seems to be a recurring problem with this president) and it's the job of a leader to cut through the bullshit when an underling is buttering you up. So yeah, Azar's failures reflect on Trump.
BC
Absolutely it does. There is no question that the current administration has had significantly more turnover than previous administrations. That said, I don't believe it is clear that Azar is worse than lots of other political appointees of other presidents. He wasn't up to the job in the current case, but in that way he is not unique. If one looks at the qualifications of many (actually almost all) of the appointees at both the State and Federal level to these types of jobs, you blood will run cold. For example, given our problems with PG&E look at the California PUC website and the CV of the members. They are all political hacks that have spent their careers in government. Not one of them has ever run a business, worked for a utility (or a railroad or a cab company...), or studied anything directly thereto related. Perhaps that isn't a good idea?
RE: Vietnam figured it out - 2006alum - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 05:00 PM)Goose Wrote:(04-23-2020, 04:50 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(04-23-2020, 03:55 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: That is a rather unusual interpretation of the article, to put it mildly. The gist damns Azar in about every way possible. At that January 18tb briefing, he also reassured the Administration that he had all the resources necessary for containment. The tune changed at the end of January , when just about everything changed. Some sort of tipping point occurred on the 28th.
Yes, the article damns Azar, which I noted when I first posted it. And who does Azar report to? Remember "Only the best people"? It's the job of a leader to hire people on the basis of competence rather than loyalty (this seems to be a recurring problem with this president) and it's the job of a leader to cut through the bullshit when an underling is buttering you up. So yeah, Azar's failures reflect on Trump.
BC
Absolutely it does. There is no question that the current administration has had significantly more turnover than previous administrations. That said, I don't believe it is clear that Azar is worse than lots of other political appointees of other presidents. He wasn't up to the job in the current case, but in that way he is not unique. If one looks at the qualifications of many (actually almost all) of the appointees at both the State and Federal level to these types of jobs, you blood will run cold. For example, given our problems with PG&E look at the California PUC website and the CV of the members. They are all political hacks that have spent their careers in government. Not one of them has ever run a business, worked for a utility (or a railroad or a cab company...), or studied anything directly thereto related. Perhaps that isn't a good idea?
If you think the qualifications of the appointees of this administration are even near the past three, I have a wet market in Wuhan to sell you. Nearly a quarter of key political appointments have gone unfilled, and there have been so many acting secretaries, deputies, etc., that there is literally a burgeoning academic literature on the legal ramifications of having much of the government run by "actings" who have only temporary decisionmaking authority.
And then there are headlines like this:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1253075681908531200?s=20[/tweet]
The notion that staffing and appointment quality in this Administration has been equivalent to every other administration is not an empirically credible claim. My professional network includes many staffers of the past three administrations (Bush II, Obama, and Trump), and even my friends who work for the Trump administration would admit they are not as qualified as their predecessors, but because most of the best people were either blocked due to political affiliations or else refused to have anything to do with this Administration, for precisely that reason had access to opportunities well above their qualifications grade.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - terry - 04-23-2020
The National Security Council, the State Department, the Director of National Intelligence, and the Defense Intelligence Agency were aware of the threat posed by the virus in early January. This is from the New York Times:
It was early January, and the call with a Hong Kong epidemiologist left Matthew Pottinger rattled.
Mr. Pottinger, the deputy national security adviser and a hawk on China, took a blunt warning away from the call with the doctor, a longtime friend: A ferocious, new outbreak that on the surface appeared similar to the SARS epidemic of 2003 had emerged in China. It had spread far more quickly than the government was admitting to, and it wouldn’t be long before it reached other parts of the world.
Mr. Pottinger had worked as a Wall Street Journal correspondent in Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic, and was still scarred by his experience documenting the death spread by that highly contagious virus.
Now, seventeen years later, his friend had a blunt message: You need to be ready. The virus, he warned, which originated in the city of Wuhan, was being transmitted by people who were showing no symptoms — an insight that American health officials had not yet accepted. . . .
In a report to the director of national intelligence, the State Department’s epidemiologist wrote in early January that the virus was likely to spread across the globe, and warned that the coronavirus could develop into a pandemic. Working independently, a small outpost of the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Center for Medical Intelligence, came to the same conclusion. Within weeks after getting initial information about the virus early in the year, biodefense experts inside the National Security Council, looking at what was happening in Wuhan, started urging officials to think about what would be needed to quarantine a city the size of Chicago.
By mid-January there was growing evidence of the virus spreading outside China. Mr. Pottinger began convening daily meetings about the coronavirus. . . .
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html
RE: Vietnam figured it out - dabigv13 - 04-23-2020
And apparently the NSC staffers wearing masks are mocked by their White House colleagues. A sad state of affairs from our elected executive leadership. I have hope that there is a way to defeat this virus and get back to near normal, and very very little hope these band of jokers can lead us there. Hope the states can make it work before running out of money.