"Loaded up with gowns" - Printable Version

"Loaded up with gowns" - Printable Version

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RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - burger - 05-08-2020

(05-08-2020, 07:15 AM)stupac2 Wrote:
(05-07-2020, 10:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries?fsrc=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2020-04-16&utm_content=article-link-4

BC
I'm not sure how to square that with this one which disagrees. Maybe because the NYT piece is continuously updated?

At any rate it doesn't really matter if one place or another is accurate, in general all evidence points toward the estimates are an undercount and we won't really know how badly for a while.

There are significant time lags in reporting deaths. It's on the order of several weeks normally. Now, it's probably in the months range.

So I would treat all of these all-cause mortality numbers as biased low going back at least a couple of months.

RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - BostonCard - 05-08-2020

The New York Times estimates that there have been 23,000 excess deaths in New York city from March 11 to May 2. New York City reports 14,162
confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 5,378 probable COVID-19 deaths (which are reported as COVID-19 deaths for the purposes of the overall tally).

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

So 19,540 confirmed or probable COVID-19 deaths, out of 23,000 excess deaths. So that's 85% of the excess deaths accounted for. If you also account for the possibility that there are some excess deaths due to overwhelmed health systems and patients hesitant to go into the ER for things like heart attacks because of the COVID-19 pandemic, I think you are probably accounting for almost all the excess deaths.

BC

RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - 2006alum - 05-08-2020

Depending how dark your sense of humor is, perhaps this should also be cross-posted in the humor thread...
[tweet]https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1258764789171523584?s=20[/tweet]

RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - ChicagoCard - 05-08-2020

Maybe the boxes had heavy packing peanuts in them.

RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - burger - 05-08-2020

(05-08-2020, 09:16 AM)2006alum Wrote: Depending how dark your sense of humor is, perhaps this should also be cross-posted in the humor thread...

No masks or social distancing in that video, and...

...wait for it...

...wait for it...

Quote:An aide to Vice President Mike Pence has tested positive for coronavirus, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said Friday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/vice-president-mike-pence-staffer-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - Farm93 - 05-08-2020

(05-08-2020, 09:58 AM)burger Wrote:
(05-08-2020, 09:16 AM)2006alum Wrote: Depending how dark your sense of humor is, perhaps this should also be cross-posted in the humor thread...

No masks or social distancing in that video, and...

...wait for it...

...wait for it...

Quote:An aide to Vice President Mike Pence has tested positive for coronavirus, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said Friday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/vice-president-mike-pence-staffer-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

Feels a bit like the NBA player that didn't take Coronavirus seriously, and then days later many members of the team were infected.

RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - stupac2 - 05-08-2020

(05-08-2020, 08:32 AM)BostonCard Wrote: The New York Times estimates that there have been 23,000 excess deaths in New York city from March 11 to May 2. New York City reports 14,162
confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 5,378 probable COVID-19 deaths (which are reported as COVID-19 deaths for the purposes of the overall tally).

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

So 19,540 confirmed or probable COVID-19 deaths, out of 23,000 excess deaths. So that's 85% of the excess deaths accounted for. If you also account for the possibility that there are some excess deaths due to overwhelmed health systems and patients hesitant to go into the ER for things like heart attacks because of the COVID-19 pandemic, I think you are probably accounting for almost all the excess deaths.

BC

I'm genuinely unsure what you're trying to say here. My point is that, right now, the official covid death numbers are lower than the estimates of excess mortality, so it's reasonable to believe that the official numbers are an undercount virtually everywhere. Are you attempting to rebut that point? Because you certainly aren't doing that, your numbers back up my claim...

RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - BostonCard - 05-08-2020

Yes, I agree with you that the number of deaths due to COVID-19 are fewer than the total number of excess deaths (derived by comparing the number of deaths observed from all causes from March to May 2020 to the historical average). Where I disagree is that this proves that the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US are understated (at least by a significant margin).

Going back to the original post, the question is whether our official count of ~75,000 deaths due to COVID-19 is accurate. Right wing outlets seem to believe that it is an overcount, while on the left there seems to be a belief that the numbers are undercounted, citing the discrepancy between the number of excess deaths and the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 as evidence. I think that is probably true in places like Bergamo, where a lot of people were dying at home without being tested and probably did have COVID-19, but less likely to be true in New York, which has included probable cases (including people dying at home without ever being tested) in their count. The discrepancy between excess deaths and COVID-19 definite and probable cases is fairly small (15%), and when you consider that some excess deaths were due to non-COVID-related causes (like heart attacks) that were nonetheless not treated because of the pandemic or delays in seeking medical care, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 is probably broadly accurate. I don't think it would be appropriate to consider a death due to a heart attack to be COVID-related just because the pandemic made caring for the heart attack more difficult.

BC

RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - dabigv13 - 05-08-2020

I think there are many people who are dying of covid at home, even in places that aren't NYC level overrun, because they are afraid of dying alone in a hospital or because they are afraid of the cost. Many of these may slip through the cracks. See below for some of this from Florida.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-florida-medical-examiner-records.html

Also, I think excess mortality of all causes is very relevant in discussing the response. The longer our healthcare system is in crisis mode, the more people wjth noncovid illnesses will die. Getting hospitals out of crisis mode requires bringing the pandemic under control. I bet Germany, South Korea, and plenty of other nations that have handled this better will have much less noncovid deaths per capita related to the pandemic than we do.

RE: "Loaded up with gowns" - stupac2 - 05-08-2020

(05-08-2020, 10:49 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Yes, I agree with you that the number of deaths due to COVID-19 are fewer than the total number of excess deaths (derived by comparing the number of deaths observed from all causes from March to May 2020 to the historical average). Where I disagree is that this proves that the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US are understated (at least by a significant margin).

Going back to the original post, the question is whether our official count of ~75,000 deaths due to COVID-19 is accurate. Right wing outlets seem to believe that it is an overcount, while on the left there seems to be a belief that the numbers are undercounted, citing the discrepancy between the number of excess deaths and the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 as evidence. I think that is probably true in places like Bergamo, where a lot of people were dying at home without being tested and probably did have COVID-19, but less likely to be true in New York, which has included probable cases (including people dying at home without ever being tested) in their count. The discrepancy between excess deaths and COVID-19 definite and probable cases is fairly small (15%), and when you consider that some excess deaths were due to non-COVID-related causes (like heart attacks) that were nonetheless not treated because of the pandemic or delays in seeking medical care, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 is probably broadly accurate. I don't think it would be appropriate to consider a death due to a heart attack to be COVID-related just because the pandemic made caring for the heart attack more difficult.

BC

15% is not fairly small! At a national level that's another 11k dead! You might argue that the differential is understandable given the circumstances, but I can't imagine looking at this and saying "someone telling a pollster that they think they actual death toll from covid is an undercount is partisan bias". It's possible that's the case given the trend, but you could use polling on climate change to tell the same story. Sometimes one side really is just correct.