AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Printable Version

AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Printable Version

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RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - OutsiderFan - 05-09-2020

My guess is Redfield was the one who leaked to AP. There are more qualified people for his job, but he strikes me as a well-intentioned guy who actually cares about others. This is in direct contrast to most in the Executive Branch. If it was Redfield iwho did the leaking it would demonstrate leadership on par with Captain Crozier to an agency that desperately needs it right now.

I’m super curious to know what GR has learned from this sorry episode. What lessons will be applied to the formulation of future posts claiming only to seek truth, now that it is an irrefutable fact that CDC was muzzled by the White House. The Teacher’s Guide for the Journalism 101 text book’s correct test answers has this as the key takeaway: The AP talking to anonymous sources is the ONLY way we know this action to protect American lives, and maybe even lift the morale of an essential institution, in fact happened.

How interesting that on the same day this was proven, Dr. Bright won his complaint and will now be keeping his job in light of the fact the independent investigation (that didn’t take long) found he was retaliated against for not being corrupt. Should be fun to see a guy who can’t any longer lose his job for telling the truth, testify in front of the House of Representatives this coming week.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Mick - 05-09-2020

(05-07-2020, 01:45 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: If Biden wins the POTUS election in November, the number of laws passed to limit Executive Branch power will make our heads spin. Some significant new restrictions and requirements are going to be implemented.

I wonder what effect a virtual Democratic convention will have on Biden's candidacy. Would it ensure Biden's viability? Less chances for backroom deals, a negotiated compromise with Newsom or Cuomo emerging as the candidate?

https://news.yahoo.com/a-big-question-for-both-parties-how-do-you-stage-a-convention-in-the-middle-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-131547455.html

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - 2006alum - 05-09-2020

(05-09-2020, 03:53 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: My guess is Redfield was the one who leaked to AP. There are more qualified people for his job, but he strikes me as a well-intentioned guy who actually cares about others. This is in direct contrast to most in the Executive Branch. If it was Redfield iwho did the leaking it would demonstrate leadership on par with Captain Crozier to an agency that desperately needs it right now.

I’m super curious to know what GR has learned from this sorry episode. What lessons will be applied to the formulation of future posts claiming only to seek truth, now that it is an irrefutable fact that CDC was muzzled by the White House. The Teacher’s Guide for the Journalism 101 text book’s correct test answers has this as the key takeaway: The AP talking to anonymous sources is the ONLY way we know this action to protect American lives, and maybe even lift the morale of an essential institution, in fact happened.

How interesting that on the same day this was proven, Dr. Bright won his complaint and will now be keeping his job in light of the fact the independent investigation (that didn’t take long) found he was retaliated against for not being corrupt. Should be fun to see a guy who can’t any longer lose his job for telling the truth, testify in front of the House of Representatives this coming week.

I too will be interested to hear his testimony next week. It's remarkable that experts who just want to follow the science are being muzzled because it's not politically convenient while literally thousands of Americans are dying every day.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - 2006alum - 05-09-2020

More on how the CDC is being overruled by the White House:

Quote:The White House is pushing a return to its failed experiment in relying on temperature screening of air travelers to detect coronavirus despite vehement objections from the nation's top public health agency, internal documents obtained by USA TODAY show.

The discord underscores the administration’s disregard for science and the diminished standing of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at a moment when local governments, businesses and community leaders are seeking direction on how to reopen safely. Recent emails show CDC scientists, who have begun owning up to initial missteps in the federal response, trying to persuade the administration to reconsider.

The White House directive to check travelers in 20 U.S. airports for fever comes after earlier efforts by the CDC to screen travelers returning from China failed to stop the global pandemic from reaching the United States.

“Thermal scanning as proposed is a poorly designed control and detection strategy as we have learned very clearly,”  Dr. Martin  Cetron, the CDC’s director of global mitigation and quarantine, wrote in an email to Department of Homeland Security officials on Thursday. “We should be concentrating our CDC resources where there is impact and a probability of mission success.”  Cetron questioned his agency’s legal authority to execute the airport plan, ending the email: “Please kindly strike out CDC from this role.”

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - OutsiderFan - 05-09-2020

LOL at the stupidity of thermometer scanners to stop virus spread. I wonder if Jared has a stake in a company selling them?

Are there betting odds available on what the U.S. case and death tolls are gonna be? I'm just about ready to throw down a big bet on whatever the "it's going be worse than it has been yet" option is.

Will be interesting to see how IHME is going to factor "CDC guidelines being ignored" into its new projections and how the numbers in it change as a result!

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Goose - 05-09-2020

(05-09-2020, 11:48 AM)2006alum Wrote: More on how the CDC is being overruled by the White House:

Quote:The White House is pushing a return to its failed experiment in relying on temperature screening of air travelers to detect coronavirus despite vehement objections from the nation's top public health agency, internal documents obtained by USA TODAY show.

The discord underscores the administration’s disregard for science and the diminished standing of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at a moment when local governments, businesses and community leaders are seeking direction on how to reopen safely. Recent emails show CDC scientists, who have begun owning up to initial missteps in the federal response, trying to persuade the administration to reconsider.

The White House directive to check travelers in 20 U.S. airports for fever comes after earlier efforts by the CDC to screen travelers returning from China failed to stop the global pandemic from reaching the United States.

“Thermal scanning as proposed is a poorly designed control and detection strategy as we have learned very clearly,”  Dr. Martin  Cetron, the CDC’s director of global mitigation and quarantine, wrote in an email to Department of Homeland Security officials on Thursday. “We should be concentrating our CDC resources where there is impact and a probability of mission success.”  Cetron questioned his agency’s legal authority to execute the airport plan, ending the email: “Please kindly strike out CDC from this role.”

Is the entire memo released anywhere?

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - 2006alum - 05-09-2020

I don't think the most recent emails discussed in the article I sent have been made public, but if you're referring to the CDC's guidelines that were quashed by the White House, you can read the full document here. That document covers mass transit but not air travel.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Farm93 - 05-09-2020

(05-09-2020, 01:44 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: LOL at the stupidity of thermometer scanners to stop virus spread. I wonder if Jared has a stake in a company selling them?

Are there betting odds available on what the U.S. case and death tolls are gonna be? I'm just about ready to throw down a big bet on whatever the "it's going be worse than it has been yet" option is.

Will be interesting to see how IHME is going to factor "CDC guidelines being ignored" into its new projections and how the numbers in it change as a result!

POTUS said in last 24 hours he thought 95,000 deaths.
I had to do a double take on the CNN total at the time as it was already at 78K. Worldometers is closing in on 80K for the USA.

Given the level of denial in soon-to-be hot spots I would guess USA will be at 110,000 by end of May.
The tally beyond ~3 weeks from now would depend on what choices Governors take once they see hospitalizations increasing.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Snorlax94 - 05-09-2020

(05-09-2020, 01:44 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: LOL at the stupidity of thermometer scanners to stop virus spread. I wonder if Jared has a stake in a company selling them.

It comes as no surprise to many people that the initial “leak” would be substantiated and it was clearly, not be any stretch, anything like “clickbait.”

But I would clarify that the CDC pushed back on that specific reliance upon thermal screening at airports:
““Thermal scanning as proposed is a poorly designed control and detection strategy as we have learned very clearly,”  Dr. Martin  Cetron, the CDC’s director of global mitigation and quarantine, wrote in an email to Department of Homeland Security officials on Thursday. “We should be concentrating our CDC resources where there is impact and a probability of mission success.” ”

I do not think thermal screening should be relied upon to open things up, and, if improperly done, I could see it making things worse (giving people a false sense of safety, creating longer, slower lines in enclosed spaces, consuming airport staff resources that could be better used elsewhere), but I don’t think that means thermal screening has no place in a larger strategy.

Although it should definitely not be a primary strategy due to its flaws, I’m in favor of using thermal screening as a complementary tool. Even if it only reduces the number of infectious people going into work or public spaces, and even if it misses pre- and asymptomatic people, if done properly, I think it can be assistive. Even though we know there are many pre and asymptomatic people, I suspect there are still a significant number of people with fevers trying to go to work or trying to have fun in crowds.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Mick - 05-09-2020

(05-09-2020, 02:14 PM)Farm93 Wrote:
(05-09-2020, 01:44 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: LOL at the stupidity of thermometer scanners to stop virus spread. I wonder if Jared has a stake in a company selling them?

Are there betting odds available on what the U.S. case and death tolls are gonna be? I'm just about ready to throw down a big bet on whatever the "it's going be worse than it has been yet" option is.

Will be interesting to see how IHME is going to factor "CDC guidelines being ignored" into its new projections and how the numbers in it change as a result!

POTUS said in last 24 hours he thought 95,000 deaths.
I had to do a double take on the CNN total at the time as it was already at 78K. Worldometers is closing in on 80K for the USA.

Given the level of denial in soon-to-be hot spots I would guess USA will be at 110,000 by end of May.
The tally beyond ~3 weeks from now would depend on what choices Governors take once they see hospitalizations increasing.

I imagine it will be 350k to 450k by the first Tuesday in November.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - magnus - 05-09-2020

(05-09-2020, 03:12 PM)Mick Wrote: I imagine it will be 350k to 450k by the first Tuesday in November.

Unfortunately, that sounds conservative. We're at 2k a day now. 2k a day til the first tuesday in november will get us to 430k. I don't see how we'll get less than 2k with so many places opening up...unless we find a successful treatment.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Mick - 05-09-2020

(05-09-2020, 03:34 PM)magnus Wrote:
(05-09-2020, 03:12 PM)Mick Wrote: I imagine it will be 350k to 450k by the first Tuesday in November.

Unfortunately, that sounds conservative. We're at 2k a day now. 2k a day til the first tuesday in november will get us to 430k. I don't see how we'll get less than 2k with so many places opening up...unless we find a successful treatment.

My mistake. I thought we were at 1,422 yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - 82 Card - 05-09-2020

(05-09-2020, 02:14 PM)Farm93 Wrote: POTUS said in last 24 hours he thought 95,000 deaths.
I had to do a double take on the CNN total at the time as it was already at 78K. Worldometers is closing in on 80K for the USA.

Given the level of denial in soon-to-be hot spots I would guess USA will be at 110,000 by end of May.

The tally beyond ~3 weeks from now would depend on what choices Governors take once they see hospitalizations increasing.

That's pretty optimistic. Worldometers is currently at 80,037. There are 22 days left in the month. To hit 110,000 at the end of the month, the average daily body count for the rest of the month would have to be 1,362. Looking at FT charts, the 7 day average has been around 1,800. The new case average has been going down, dropping about 16% in last 15 days. If the average daily death rate drops at the same rate for the rest of the month, it would just about reach 1,362 by the end of the month. Although we have had relatively low numbers today, I don't expect that to continue for the whole month. The deaths in the next couple of weeks are going to be mostly from the cases already in the can. The case totals have been boosted by increased testing but I haven't seen anything indicating that the testing has been so wonderful that we should expect a collapse in the mortality rate.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - magnus - 05-09-2020

(05-09-2020, 05:39 PM)Mick Wrote:
(05-09-2020, 03:34 PM)magnus Wrote:
(05-09-2020, 03:12 PM)Mick Wrote: I imagine it will be 350k to 450k by the first Tuesday in November.

Unfortunately, that sounds conservative. We're at 2k a day now. 2k a day til the first tuesday in november will get us to 430k. I don't see how we'll get less than 2k with so many places opening up...unless we find a successful treatment.

My mistake. I thought we were at 1,422 yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

It's hard to tell what our running average is. Single day numbers can be way off from the actual trend (note the near 3k totals earlier in the week and the under 2k tally a week ago). Probably better to compare 7 day averages or at least compare the same weekday (TWTh this past week was more than the TWTh the previous week). I hope our running average over yesterday/today ends up being closer to 1.4k than 2k. If TWTh this coming week can stay below 2k, that'll be a positive trend.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - OutsiderFan - 05-10-2020

Reported deaths are always lowest on weekends for some reason. Tuesdays and Wednesdays the highest. Same pattern applies to new confirmed cases.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Genuine Realist - 05-10-2020

(05-08-2020, 07:52 PM)akiddoc Wrote:
(05-08-2020, 07:44 PM)2006alum Wrote:
(05-08-2020, 07:42 PM)akiddoc Wrote: https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-cdc-guidelines-buried-20200508-v2ix4it26reglh7cbnfakfe4ra-story.html

Ends up that Redfield approved the document. Quashed at the White House.

It's almost as if anyone who has expertise and a desire to put science above politics must be quashed at all costs... Eager for the genuine apologist's explanation as to why this is all Fake News too.

I doubt GR believes half of what he posts. Trying to be a contrarian. Once in a great while he turns out to be correct.

I could take umbrage at that, but I have danced this dance too many times to react. (Besides, anyone who has lived in the Palo Alto area as long as I have has learned that the basic Stanford degree is in omniscience, whatever the stated major.) I'm not a contrarian. What I am is a one-eyed man in the proverbial land. No matter how intelligent you may be, if you're wedded to your value judgments, you're going to dull your critical thinking to the point of becoming stupid. Groupthink is probably more dangerous to the intelligentsia than to most others, as too many of them care passionately about what other smart people think. That's how the New York Times maintains its readership.

It's worthwhile actually take a look at the AP article akiddoc cited, and see what it actually says - instead of simply accepting it because it confirms preconceptions. Here's the link to that article, if you want to revisit it.

(1) The first point of note is that the article does NOI report the CDC report being canceled - in fact, quite the opposite. The Administration is going to publish the CDC recommendations. The reporter implies - with no sourcing whatsoever - that the publication reflects a change of position related to the publication of the AP article. Since this is completely self-serving - the last thing in the world the reporter would acknowledge is that the original report was in error - it should be regarded with suspicion, unless it's sourced. But it isn't.

(2) The article then does give a recounting of the production of the report with dates, and I will give credit for that. Many of the reports are often deliberately blurry with dates. There is also reference to email correspondence. But only three emails from the Administration are quoted. One, by Satya Thallam, states . . . 'the documents are not yet been cleared and cannot go out as of right now . . .' [emphasis added]. The second, by Rachel Semmel, notes that the submission by the CDC is . . . 'the start, not the end, of the deliberative process and everyone knows that.' Finally, someone named Quinn Hirsch says that the submission is 'cleared for further development, not release.'

These are the only emails quoted. Given the perspective of the reporter, it stands to reason that they're the worst he can quote - and none of them are remotely about shelving the recommendations. They all refer to an ongoing process - and . . . . that's exactly what happened, with the Administration going forward on the 7th, completely consistently with the quoted emails.

So where's the shelving? Where's the scandal? Well . . . . apparently, 'hours later' Staff Chief McGowan told (how? by conference call? ) 'CDC staff' (who? Redfield? Someone else?) that the proposals 'would never see the light of day'. Really? A pretty drastic change of position from emails just a day or two before and absolutely undocumented. No email. No quote. We know this because of the accounts of . . . . inevitably . . . three anonymous sources who are not authorized to speak. Well, you can take that for what it's worth, which seems to me nothing, because it flatly contradicts the email record and the actual actions of the Administration.

So what did happen? Or is happening? No major proposal from a Federal department, be it a commercial idea from Treasury, a diplomatic policy from State, a defense initiative, etc. is released without the Administration laying hands on it. It will be reviewed, edited, and revised - that happens with all of them. CDC ideas about reopening, which also involve commercial, economic, and even First Amendment (religious gatherings) issues are no exceptions to the rule. It sounds as if a faction in the CDC became impatient with that. (Rachel Semmel's email has an exasperated tone, as if she is reminding people of stuff they should already know.) Given the overall context, the 'never see the light of day' - for which no context is provided - probably refers to the recommendations in the original form, i.e., they will not be published - 'see the light of day' . . . without revision. This was apparently too much for a few CDC hotheads, who contacted an AP reporter, using the coward's cloak of anonymity, charged that the recommendations were shelved.

Except that they haven't been - and, per the record provided by the story, they never were shelved. The notion that the publication represents a change of direction is a pure self-serving interpolation by the reporter, and is not consistent with the emails he or she quoted. The proposals have been in a review, comment, and revise process, which may be too slow for some CDC staffers, but is absolutely par for the course on major policy.

So why does akiddoc fall hook, line, and sinker, for an unsourced story in which the text contradicts the headline? In which the actual public actions of the Administration belie the account? Because the headline matches the value judgments he'd already made. I don't mean this to be personal. It's the easiest and most pleasant thing in the world to suspend your critical faculties when you're reading or hearing something you want to believe. But it's deadly. The article is actually the most dangerous form of fake news, because it's subtle. (BTW, I don't mean this just in connection with Trump. Obama and Bush had to live with this, too, albeit not to the same degree. The Obama Administration became so frustrated that it targeted reporters to find out who was leaking, absolutely justified, in my opinion, though decried by all the media. Hell, why not? Who wouldn't want to hold on to unaccountable power?)

I don't think these are bad times. In fact, I believe they are the best in history by far, despite the pandemic. But one of the negative aspects of the incredibly efficient communication system we have developed. We live with a noise level that is unprecedented. Socrates may have been an old dead White guy, but he had a point. To quote myself, from the first novel, “ . . . [t]he epitome of the unexamined life – the paradigm – is to believe everything you want to believe for no better reason than you want to believe it." I'm no more immune than anybody. It isn't easy to live an examined life. It never has been.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - oldalum - 05-10-2020

GR, I appreciate your taking the time to calmly go through your analysis (and allowing some gratuitous comments to go unanswered).
A corollary of what you're saying is that the administration is fully accountable for the policies they put out. This business of blaming the experts when it doesn't work out should be a nonstarter. Which is why the facts in stories like this are useful, they provide transparency in government which is generally a good thing. Politicians who have a broader perspective than the subject-matter experts should be willing to take ownership of why they have modified emphasis or policies. And to be fair, I think the reason why stories of the government's apparent suppression of expertise have such currency now is that the administration has such a long track record of, well, suppression and distrust of expertise (and even facts), plus a general lack of belief in the competence of the leadership of the federal government.

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - Mick - 05-11-2020

(05-10-2020, 04:26 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Reported deaths are always lowest on weekends for some reason. Tuesdays and Wednesdays the highest. Same pattern applies to new confirmed cases.

Sounds right. Sunday's was 750 American COVID-19 deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - burger - 05-11-2020

(05-09-2020, 10:04 PM)magnus Wrote: It's hard to tell what our running average is. Single day numbers can be way off from the actual trend (note the near 3k totals earlier in the week and the under 2k tally a week ago). Probably better to compare 7 day averages or at least compare the same weekday (TWTh this past week was more than the TWTh the previous week). I hope our running average over yesterday/today ends up being closer to 1.4k than 2k. If TWTh this coming week can stay below 2k, that'll be a positive trend.

Running 7-day average of deaths is about 1800 now for the US (black line in the graph). It's essentially flat for the last few weeks.

[Image: c5Aw8iO.png]

RE: AP Speaks for Muzzled CDC - BostonCard - 05-20-2020

More allegations, I'm sure by "disgruntled employees" (in this case, six of them) that the CDC was muzzled early in the pandemic.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/newslocalpolitics/weve-been-muzzled-cdc-sources-say-white-house-putting-politics-ahead-of-science/ar-BB14m1VK?li=BBnb7Kz

Quote:A senior official inside the CDC told CNN that the agency also alerted the White House to the virus's rapid spread across Europe, but that "the White House was extremely focused on China and not wanting to anger Europe ... even though that's where most of our cases were originally coming from."