The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - Printable Version
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RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - BostonCard - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 10:55 AM)martyup Wrote: To my knowledge, there have been no restrictions on the number of people who may use the subway in NYC during this shutdown. The fact that ridership is down 92% shows that people don't need strict laws and rules to socially distance. Most people will protect themselves when necessary. I guess what rubs me raw is that the rest of the country is forced to socially distance under threat of jail, but in NYC you are free to decide for yourself whether it is safe to take the subway. With no deaths in my county and very few cases, we queue up 6 feet apart to be allowed to enter a limited capacity Walmart or Home Depot. At the same time you can sit elbow to elbow with a stranger on the NYC subway. I just don't think they have done enough in NYC to slow the deaths.
I'm now confused. I thought you felt that NY should have shut down the subway earlier, as that was the thrust of your first post. Now you are arguing that the 92% reduction in ridership means that "people don't need strict laws and rules to socially distance". These two arguments seem contradictory to me.
I think it is self-evident that local officials in NY did a very poor job, especially early in the pandemic. The numbers bear that out. They were slow to institute the shelter in place orders, and the mayor of NY was seen going to the gym on the very day he instituted SiP, undermining the very message he was sending (like Trump and Pence not wearing masks in areas where they should have been wearing masks). On the other hand, once they did implement the SiP orders, they have been very effective in reducing the number of cases and deaths, in a way that much of the rest of the US hasn't done. See, for example, this chart that I prepared for a different thread:
![[Image: image.png]](https://www.evernote.com/l/ACz80n1zxb9PB61t8iCxF1xUrJOU46E7GO4B/image.png)
BC
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - Goose - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 08:14 AM)burger Wrote: China lied, but somehow countries like Taiwan and South Korea and a bunch of others were able to prepare. Makes me think that the fault is with our leadership, not China's.Burger, doesn't your own statement lend credence to the idea that our problem was our preparation, not our leadership? Taiwan and South Korea had been preparing for years. Their leadership didn't really have to do much of anything when the event actually happened. The USA and Europe had not prepared. While our present Presidential leadership is abysmal, whoever held that office really had few cards to play. I greatly fear the lesson people are going to learn is "Trump screwed it up" (which he arguably did), rather than "We weren't prepared and we paid the price". Even with a horrible president, an adequate, prepared epidemic response force would have had a shot at containing the outbreak. Without that, there was no shot.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - BostonCard - 05-08-2020
Australia and New Zealand were not prepping for years, and both have strong ties to China (New Zealand via tourists, who would have flocked for the New Zealand summer, and Australia because of exports of minerals and coal).
You are right of course, that there were failures in preparation, but I think the lapses in leadership exacerbated the current situation.
Also, even within Europe there is a lot of variability in response effectiveness. We have talked about testing in Germany; Germany has about 1/4 the per capita deaths due to COVID-19 as France does. Denmark has 1/4 the deaths of Sweden, just across the Baltic. Preparation is important, of course, but response matters too.
BC
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - ChicagoCard - 05-08-2020
Variability in response effectiveness, but also strategies. I know I'm not pointing out anything most people don't know, but flatly stating that Denmark has 1/4 the deaths of Sweden is a bit facile.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - chrisk - 05-08-2020
Chinese propaganda video aimed at young English-speaking Europeans
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5BZ09iNdvo
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - stupac2 - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 02:45 PM)chrisk Wrote: Chinese propaganda video aimed at young English-speaking Europeans
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5BZ09iNdvo
I don't really want to watch a propaganda video, but I'm really curious why that one minifig is holding a bow...
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - Goose - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 02:04 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Australia and New Zealand were not prepping for years, and both have strong ties to China (New Zealand via tourists, who would have flocked for the New Zealand summer, and Australia because of exports of minerals and coal).Only sort of true. While neither country had a significant SARS outbreak, both countries have very active border control of infectious agents. They are very aware that some of their neighbors regularly have outbreaks of infectious disease. This isn't so much China as it is Indonesia and New Guinea. Right now AIDS, Influenza and TB are of epidemic proportions in New Guinea. Australia and New Zealand are quite aware of that and maintain active surveillance. There is a big carry over. In addition, both Australia and (especially) New Zealand were "behind" the infection curve. They had time to see what happened elsewhere.
Quote:You are right of course, that there were failures in preparation, but I think the lapses in leadership exacerbated the current situation.No disagreement there. It would have been bad enough if the President had simply equivocated in the beginning, saying "Were keeping an eye on it". Instead, he said "It is not a problem. Don't worry". After that, he has been more worried about who to blame than fixing the problem. The man probably had no credibility left for most people, but his actions in this case destroyed whatever there was left of it.
Quote:Also, even within Europe there is a lot of variability in response effectiveness. We have talked about testing in Germany; Germany has about 1/4 the per capita deaths due to COVID-19 as France does. Denmark has 1/4 the deaths of Sweden, just across the Baltic. Preparation is important, of course, but response matters too.Very true BC. However, as you know there are many questions about the way Germany counts COVID-19 deaths. In many cases the proximate cause of death is reported, not the fact it was COVID induced. Also, Germany greatly benefited from the prepared Bavarian public health response tracing the initial hot spots. Sweden has chosen a different path. Their leadership made different decisions.
I really don't think the actual decision making process in the various European countries has been significantly different. I think that it looks much better than ours because their heads of state did not make fools of themselves by unnecessarily saying it was no problem before they actually knew anything (except possibly Boris). It is also true that the luck of the draw regarding the dynamics of the infection in each country has made a big difference in outcome.
I just want to make sure that next time this happens we have in place a system that will protect us against a repeat. That can be done, and should be. If we don't have that, even a "good" (i.e. rational) president won't be able to avoid major problems. And, if we have a moron as President, we will really need the automatic response because we won't get a reasoned one.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - BostonCard - 05-08-2020
Good piece about what NSW did:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2011592?query=RP
Quote:On January 21, NSW Health opened its Public Health Emergency Operations Centre (which was previously used during the H1N1 influenza pandemic and for subsequent exercises) to coordinate case finding, contact tracing, outbreak control, communications, and other preventive actions. It drew staff from health services, government agencies, universities, and former employees. More than 150 contact tracers were hired, and the State Health Emergency Operations Centre was opened at the Rural Fire Services headquarters to help the state’s 17 local health districts build critical care and emergency department capacity, establish Covid-19 testing clinics, and coordinate the supply of personal protective equipment. NSW Health regularly produced online content and webinars for physicians, health administrators, and other stakeholders.
What was our government doing on January 21?
Quote:Expert committees, led by the Communicable Disease Network Australia and its parent organization, the Australian Health Protection Principle Committee (AHPPC) — both of which include jurisdictional health department staff and academic experts — meet daily to review surveillance data and models of projected disease spread and to develop recommendations. The AHPPC advises the newly formed national cabinet (composed of the prime minister and the first minister from each state and territory), which then creates policies, recommends legislation, and implements laws related to Covid-19.
Instead our governors and president get into spats over twitter.
Quote:To identify as many cases as possible and thereby avert further disease transmission, special attention has been given to increasing testing capacity and broadening access to testing for people with mild symptoms. New South Wales now has among the highest testing rates in the world. To strengthen traditional contact-tracing methods, the Australian government launched COVIDSafe, a mobile app that uses Bluetooth to identify close contacts of people with Covid-19, on April 26.
Don't get me started on testing in the US. Australia has performed 775,080 tests and identified 6,927 cases (a positive test rate of <1%). The US has carried out 8.6 tests, but 1.3 million have come back positive (over 15%).
Quote:Like the rest of Australia, New South Wales is currently in a lull — new diagnoses have fallen from a peak of 212 on March 27 to 1 on May 3. This success may be attributable to Australia’s near-unique ability to close its borders as well as to consistent national Covid-19 policies, regular communication with an engaged community, effective identification and isolation of infected people, quarantine of those who have been exposed, and the public’s high degree of compliance with social-distancing guidelines.
In contrast, we have demonstrations about shelter in place guidelines, and people would rather brandish their weapon (or, in the worst case, use it) at security guards asking them to use a mask.
FWIW, the Prime Minister of Australia is from the right side of the political spectrum (yes, the Australian Liberal party is conservative), and was lambasted for his response to the Australian bushfires earlier in the year, but his response to COVID-19 has been decidedly better.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/essential-poll-australians-warm-to-easing-of-covid-19-restrictions-but-are-divided-on-schools
The latest survey suggests Morrison’s response to the pandemic is continuing to get a thumbs up from voters. The prime minister’s approval rating has increased in the latest survey for the fourth straight month. In February it was 39% and now it is 64%. Morrison is enjoying approval from 92% of Coalition voters.
BC
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 2006alum - 05-08-2020
To further echo BC's point, New Zealand has also crushed the curve (almost no new domestic cases in the past week), and their PM, Jacinda Ardern, is pretty far left, and is now negotiating with Australia to create a joint Antipodean bubble that would permit relatively open travel and commerce between the two countries. Shows that if you follow the science and stay focused on policy rather than politics, the virus can be beaten, regardless of the politics of the party in charge.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - Goose - 05-08-2020
I know I am not getting much traction here, but I do think the contrast in the "success" of the current Prime Minister of Australia exactly proves my point. In the case of the fires, he had a brave, competent, and totally inadequate fire fighting force to deploy against a set of fires that was larger than ever seen before. The proper role of the Commonwealth in this action is a little muddied, but in any case it didn't go well and the public was mad. The fire responses, being volunteer, aren't directly under Commonwealth control. OTOH, when COVID-19 hit, the Commonwealth had an adequate, highly professional force that was up to the task. The same "idiot" who messed up the fire response now gets high marks from the public because things went well. It is certainly true that a chief executive can mess up even a good situation, but if you don't have the tools it isn't going to go well, period. That is the "lesson" from Australia's experience.
It is also true that NSW has powers independent of the Commonwealth, as does California vs. the Feds. However, once again, if the resources are already available and working, it is a lot harder to mess it up than if you are improvising in the fly. That is just a fact, IMHO, and we ignore it at our great peril. If you have a good system in place, the Prime Minister can just get out of the way and let it work. If the system is inadequate, almost no matter what action he takes, things will not go well and he will be blamed.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 76lsjumb - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 08:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: What was our government doing on January 21?
BC
Convening an impeachment trial of the President of the United States.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 2006alum - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 10:59 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:(05-08-2020, 08:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: What was our government doing on January 21?
BC
Convening an impeachment trial of the President of the United States.
Attempting to bribe/extort a foreign head of state with public money to frame a political rival has consequences. Who knew?
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - burger - 05-09-2020
(05-08-2020, 09:39 PM)Goose Wrote: I know I am not getting much traction here, but I do think the contrast in the "success" of the current Prime Minister of Australia exactly proves my point. In the case of the fires, he had a brave, competent, and totally inadequate fire fighting force to deploy against a set of fires that was larger than ever seen before. The proper role of the Commonwealth in this action is a little muddied, but in any case it didn't go well and the public was mad. The fire responses, being volunteer, aren't directly under Commonwealth control. OTOH, when COVID-19 hit, the Commonwealth had an adequate, highly professional force that was up to the task. The same "idiot" who messed up the fire response now gets high marks from the public because things went well. It is certainly true that a chief executive can mess up even a good situation, but if you don't have the tools it isn't going to go well, period. That is the "lesson" from Australia's experience.
It is also true that NSW has powers independent of the Commonwealth, as does California vs. the Feds. However, once again, if the resources are already available and working, it is a lot harder to mess it up than if you are improvising in the fly. That is just a fact, IMHO, and we ignore it at our great peril. If you have a good system in place, the Prime Minister can just get out of the way and let it work. If the system is inadequate, almost no matter what action he takes, things will not go well and he will be blamed.
The fire analogy is not great. No fires as large as those in Australia have ever been suppressed by humans. The best you can do sometimes is save a few individual houses or structures. I doubt it was possible for the Australians to do much more than they did.
Meanwhile, with the virus, we have compelling examples from several countries (well documented above in this thread) that it was possible to suppress the virus through early action.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - Goose - 05-09-2020
(05-09-2020, 07:05 AM)burger Wrote: The fire analogy is not great. No fires as large as those in Australia have ever been suppressed by humans. The best you can do sometimes is save a few individual houses or structures. I doubt it was possible for the Australians to do much more than they did.Well, the Australian public most certainly does not agree with you. The fires were a challenge, but the main reason they got as large as they did is that the initial suppression was in many cases inadequate. The small local fire departments were overwhelmed and couldn't contain the fires away from populated areas. There was no backup force of any kind available from the states or the Commonwealth. The public cried "do something", but there was no force available to do so. Eventually they tried the Army, but since it hadn't been trained or prepared, it didn't do much.
Quote:Meanwhile, with the virus, we have compelling examples from several countries (well documented above in this thread) that it was possible to suppress the virus through early action.And early action is possible only if you are prepared. If you aren't, there isn't much you can do. I also continue to point out that lots of that "early action" took place not in response to top-level executive decision but rather inside the public health services who were just doing their job. Proportionally, the US has a much smaller "on the ground" public health effort than for instance Australia or Korea. That really matters when you are at the start of an epidemic and need to contain it before it gets away from you. Having lots of eyes on the problem all across the country also reduces the probability that some disease can sneak by you and start community spread without the nation even being aware of it.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 76lsjumb - 05-09-2020
(05-08-2020, 11:05 PM)2006alum Wrote:(05-08-2020, 10:59 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:(05-08-2020, 08:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: What was our government doing on January 21?
BC
Convening an impeachment trial of the President of the United States.
Attempting to bribe/extort a foreign head of state with public money to frame a political rival has consequences. Who knew?
I admire your tenacity in missing the point. :-)
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - dabigv13 - 05-09-2020
I have no knowledge of the Australian public health apparatus. Why do you think its so much better than the US? The CDC WAS thought of as preeminent, at least before this debacle.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 2006alum - 05-09-2020
(05-09-2020, 08:31 AM)76lsjumb Wrote:(05-08-2020, 11:05 PM)2006alum Wrote:(05-08-2020, 10:59 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:(05-08-2020, 08:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: What was our government doing on January 21?
BC
Convening an impeachment trial of the President of the United States.
Attempting to bribe/extort a foreign head of state with public money to frame a political rival has consequences. Who knew?
I admire your tenacity in missing the point. :-)
By all means, spell it out for me.
If your point is that the impeachment "distracted" the White House, that explains neither Trump's ability to focus on the parts of the epidemic that mattered to him (calling for a poorly implemented travel ban from China), nor explains why heads of HHS and other parts of the vast Executive Branch were also entirely engulfed by impeachment.
If your point is that convicting the President of impeachment would have left the Executive Branch with ineffectual leadership (Pence) in the midst of a emerging pandemic, I suppose the fact that Pence was named head of the Task Force suggests that the same guy would have done the job either way.
Or am I missing something because I'm not fully familiar with the Faux News talking points?
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - Mick - 05-09-2020
(05-09-2020, 08:40 AM)2006alum Wrote:(05-09-2020, 08:31 AM)76lsjumb Wrote:(05-08-2020, 11:05 PM)2006alum Wrote:(05-08-2020, 10:59 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:(05-08-2020, 08:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: What was our government doing on January 21?
Convening an impeachment trial of the President of the United States.
Attempting to bribe/extort a foreign head of state with public money to frame a political rival has consequences. Who knew?
I admire your tenacity in missing the point. :-)
By all means, spell it out for me.
If your point is that the impeachment "distracted" the White House, that explains neither Trump's ability to focus on the parts of the epidemic that mattered to him (calling for a poorly implemented travel ban from China), nor explains why heads of HHS and other parts of the vast Executive Branch were also entirely engulfed by impeachment.
If your point is that convicting the President of impeachment would have left the Executive Branch with ineffectual leadership (Pence) in the midst of a emerging pandemic, I suppose the fact that Pence was named head of the Task Force suggests that the same guy would have done the job either way.
Or am I missing something because I'm not fully familiar with the Faux News talking points?
The noise about Trump doesn't matter much. He'll be voted out in November. His (first) underfunding and (second) muzzling of the CDC will harm his status among all voters, but particularly among the elderly, given that we'll be between 350,000 and 450,000 coronavirus deaths by voting day:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/anxious-about-the-virus-older-voters-grow-more-wary-of-trump/ar-BB13PxZ2
The sleazy things he did that used to stay hidden are now coming to light, things that a majority of voters can't ignore.
https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/By-making-Fla-his-official-residence-Trump-may-15256580.php
I gather that it has impacted Trump personally, now that eleven of his Secret Service is testing positive, as has Mike Pence's press secretary:
https://news.yahoo.com/secret-service-coronavirus-cases-white-house-concerns-221444492.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/08/mike-pence-staffer-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-244816
And, as noted, the economy will be in tatters with a ballooned deficit, as even Joe Biden can point out:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/496812-biden-says-trump-coronavirus-policies-have-led-to-economic-disaster
My concern isn't that Trump will be re-elected (he won't, he doesn't have a prayer), or that Biden will be elected. Biden is leading where HRC failed three years ago.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/05/08/new-polling-data-show-trump-faltering-in-key-swing-states-heres-why/
The country will necessarily take a Socialist tilt (it will be branded as progressive) when the Democrat candidate gets elected. Bernie and Warren had a lot of popularity for a reason. Trump tilted the playing field towards the rich for three years, and between the Worse-Than-Great-Depression economy and unemployment figures and the concentration of wealth in the hands of the top 1/10th of 1%, we'll be ripe for a more-than-progressive-approach.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/will-covid-19-make-us-more-socialist/
Here's an opening salvo:
https://www.the-sun.com/news/801005/democratic-senators-2000-monthly-coronavirus-payment/
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - BostonCard - 05-09-2020
(05-08-2020, 10:59 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:(05-08-2020, 08:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: What was our government doing on January 21?
BC
Convening an impeachment trial of the President of the United States.
Trump must have been really distracted preparing for all the testimony the executive branch gave.
If your contention is that our response to COVID-19 was hampered by impeachment, you are going to have to spell out how. You will also have to spell out how Trump’s response to COVID-19 continued to be haphazard, disorganized, unprepared, and ineffective for the three plus months after his acquittal.
BC
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 2006alum - 05-09-2020
(05-09-2020, 09:30 AM)Mick Wrote: My concern isn't that Trump will be elected (he won't), or that Biden will be elected. The country will necessarily take a Socialist tilt (it will be branded as progressive) when the Democrat candidate gets elected. Bernie and Warren had a lot of popularity for a reason. Trump tilted the playing field towards the rich for three years, and between the Worse-Than-Great-Depression economy and unemployment figures and the concentration of wealth in the hands of the top 1/10th of 1%, we'll be ripe for a more-than-progressive-approach.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/will-covid-19-make-us-more-socialist/
Here's an opening salvo:
https://www.the-sun.com/news/801005/democratic-senators-2000-monthly-coronavirus-payment/
I agree with you that there will definitely be the potential for a turn to more leftist and redistributive economic policies -- even Trump doesn't seem to bothered by the idea of "handouts" insofar as he has no interest in finding a way to pay for them.
Interestingly, this Bloomberg article quoted "Wall Street Titans" who felt that taxes would go up, and some, interestingly, even argued that there was moral cause for it:
Quote:“Taxes have to go up -- and it will go up at the upper end,” Leon Cooperman, the outspoken hedge fund veteran, said in an interview. “We have to deal with our fiscal situation and stop indebting our children.” He has said he would be willing to pay half of his income to the government.
If anything, I have to think this pandemic will bolster support for some form of Medicare for All (or at least, borrowing Buttiegieg's phrasing, "All Who Want It"). The past two months have shown the folly of tying healthcare to employment status.
Given how big our tax bills are going to be in the medium term, however, I think everyone is going to need to contribute. I don't think it's socially sustainable for almost all of our federal revenue to come from just the top few percent.