The Georgia experiment - Printable Version
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RE: The Georgia experiment - Mick - 05-11-2020
(05-11-2020, 05:21 PM)2006alum Wrote: FWIW, OpenTable reservations are still down year-over-year by close to 100% in most of the states that are reopening. As of yesterday, 5/10, Florida was at -89% of 2019, Georgia at -92%, and Texas at -83%. What's not clear to me is how any restaurant that's operating at 10-15% of normal stays afloat. Maybe it's all PPP money that's covering payroll and expenses right now, but this article suggests that a lot of small businesses plan additional rounds of layoffs as soon as their mandatory two months of employee payroll are up. This article really hammered home how depressing the middle-term economic future is, and how little anyone seems to realize it:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1258821229529743363?s=20[/tweet]
Yes, this is what I've been trying to say for months. I just did my second round of layoffs Friday and today. The future for most people is horribly bleak. Has nothing to do with the Dow and everything to do with the fact that the vast majority of people who will lose their livelihoods have meager means to begin with. And most well-off people can't really comprehend it, certainly not at the same level as those to whom economic disaster happens. The standard response from well-off people is not sympathy for those experiencing economic disaster but irritation and frustration with those who dare to bring it up.
RE: The Georgia experiment - stupac2 - 05-11-2020
(05-11-2020, 05:32 PM)Mick Wrote: Yes, this is what I've been trying to say for months. I just did my second round of layoffs Friday and today. The future for most people is horribly bleak. Has nothing to do with the Dow and everything to do with the fact that the vast majority of people who will lose their livelihoods have meager means to begin with. And most well-off people can't really comprehend it, certainly not at the same level as those to whom economic disaster happens. The standard response from well-off people is not sympathy for those experiencing economic disaster but irritation and frustration with those who dare to bring it up.
Personally my irritation is with the federal government who could be doing one hell of a lot more but is refusing because... reasons? Honestly I have no idea, I've seen a lot of plans floated that would be a brobdingnagian help that have gone nowhere.
RE: The Georgia experiment - 82 Card - 05-12-2020
(05-11-2020, 05:31 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I found this real time tracker to be useful:
https://tracker.opportunityinsights.org/
It basically looks at consumer spending across a range of categories. Overall, consumer spending is down 20% compared to March 15 (hey, I'm doing my part; I bought a car). That's actually up from -30% in mid-April. Three sub-categories are down more than 50%: restaurants & hotels, entertainment & recreation, and transportation (healthcare is down about 50%). Only groceries are up compared to baseline.
You can look by state, too.
BC
The site allows you to compare three states at a time to national average or three counties at a time to state average. I was surprised how much greater the reduction in spending is in California compared to NY and NJ. NY and NJ reduction is 2.9% and 1.1% greater than national average. CA is at 10.3% more reduction than national average. Most of the difference seems to be in apparel & general merchandise. Not sure if that means folks in CA normally spend a lot more on clothes and general merchandise or folks in NY and NJ just can't let go of shopping.
RE: The Georgia experiment - Mick - 05-12-2020
(05-12-2020, 02:18 AM)82 Card Wrote:(05-11-2020, 05:31 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I found this real time tracker to be useful:
https://tracker.opportunityinsights.org/
It basically looks at consumer spending across a range of categories. Overall, consumer spending is down 20% compared to March 15 (hey, I'm doing my part; I bought a car). That's actually up from -30% in mid-April. Three sub-categories are down more than 50%: restaurants & hotels, entertainment & recreation, and transportation (healthcare is down about 50%). Only groceries are up compared to baseline.
You can look by state, too.
BC
The site allows you to compare three states at a time to national average or three counties at a time to state average. I was surprised how much greater the reduction in spending is in California compared to NY and NJ. NY and NJ reduction is 2.9% and 1.1% greater than national average. CA is at 10.3% more reduction than national average. Most of the difference seems to be in apparel & general merchandise. Not sure if that means folks in CA normally spend a lot more on clothes and general merchandise or folks in NY and NJ just can't let go of shopping.
I wonder how they track online purchases against in-store purchases. Most of the small businesses in our little town are shuttered. And I just spent a small fortune online.
And right on time, here comes inflation:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/us-grocery-costs-jump-the-most-in-46-years-led-by-rising-prices-for-meat-and-eggs.html
RE: The Georgia experiment - 2006alum - 05-12-2020
(05-12-2020, 09:35 AM)Mick Wrote: I wonder how they track online purchases against in-store purchases. Most of the small businesses in our little town are shuttered. And I just spent a small fortune online.
I was wondering about this too. Are they tracking point of payment origin (i.e., if I order from LL Bean online in California, it's a California purchase even though the company operates in Maine?), or are they tracking point of receipt (so it'd count for Maine, not California)?
(05-12-2020, 09:35 AM)Mick Wrote: I wonder how they track online purchases against in-store purchases. Most of the small businesses in our little town are shuttered. And I just spent a small fortune online.
And right on time, here comes inflation:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/us-grocery-costs-jump-the-most-in-46-years-led-by-rising-prices-for-meat-and-eggs.html
That's not quite what I took away from this article:
Quote:The grocery numbers stand in stark contrast to the broader trend in U.S. prices, which fell 0.8% in April and clinched their largest one-month decline since 2008 as a swoon in oil and gasoline dragged the headline CPI number lower. . . .
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core CPI dropped 0.4%, its largest slump ever through records kept since 1957.
RE: The Georgia experiment - Farm93 - 05-12-2020
(05-11-2020, 05:21 PM)2006alum Wrote: This article really hammered home how depressing the middle-term economic future is, and how little anyone seems to realize it:I don't think that's true. I think a lot of people, even many politicians, know how bad the next 24+ months will be for the USA and the world.
Some of those electing to skip restaurants and bars are doing it for COVID19 concerns, but in many cases they are also doing it for financial reasons too. Even if COVID19 proves to never have a second wave, the fear of that second wave will cause a lot of families to try much harder to create rainy day savings. As most USA families don't have those funds, we are likely to see almost panic level saving whenever possible by at least some group of middle to upper-middle class families.
We are pretty much locked into a really bad 24+ months of economic performance at this point.
COVID19 mandates will cause some forced closures.
COVID19 prevention policies will cause some businesses to fail.
Fear of COVID and certain job loss will cause many families capable of saving in 2020 to do that creating even more downward pressure.
The Washington Post pointed to politicians to illustrate that Americans are not aware. That's a faulty conclusion. A politician up for re-election in 6 months needs to show command of the current medical situation while, at least for now, displaying endless confidence in American consumerism to reduce the potential of a consumer confidence decline that could send the USA economy into a tailspin even if COVID19 illness and death come in at the more favorable rates.
And that's just the USA economic picture. Historically a global pandemic that destroys economic activity in the G7-type nations often cascades to create even greater complications around the world. Greater death and greater economic turmoil from the virus, and often political unrest, violence and wars because of the death and economic turmoil.
That gloom and doom scenario is certainly more possible today than it was 5 months ago, but what politician is going to talk about any of that national and global despair 6 months before an election?
RE: The Georgia experiment - 82lsju - 05-12-2020
(05-12-2020, 09:35 AM)Mick Wrote: I wonder how they track online purchases against in-store purchases. Most of the small businesses in our little town are shuttered. And I just spent a small fortune online.
Quote:Location is assigned to a county by Affinity Solutions using the address of the cardholder
see bottom of page 11
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf
RE: The Georgia experiment - Snorlax94 - 05-12-2020
What a handy tool, thanks for sharing it BC.
A few thoughts:
1) Is there a way for the tool to show Year-to-Year comparisons vs. everything relative to January 2020? For example, in December it'll show a surge in shopping, but what we really want is spending in Dec 2020 vs. Dec 2019.
2) I can think of a few ways the data could be a little biased based on how it computes spending (using credit card data by zip code, on the bottom of page 11, as pointed out by 82lsju),
i) This may not capture parts of the surge in government spending. Hotels might actually doing better than is shown because many local governments are buying up hotel rooms to help isolate family members or to house homeless people.
ii) This is a smaller effect, but it wouldn't capture people using up all their gift cards. Because of bankruptcy risks, I'm spending all points whenever possible. Those companies' outstanding liabilities are decreasing, but it doesn't show up in my credit card statement.
3) I imagine CA's data is lower than the nation in general because CA was first to lock down, and has been locked down the longest, leading to more of a long-term bunker mentality. Californian's grocery spending also surged more than other states in mid-March through mid-April, and my guess a lot of apparel & general merch. spending simply shifted to being counted in the grocery bucket. Most people I know are buying their personal care items, toys, etc., at Costco and Target, which may be categorized as groceries.
4) The massive drop in healthcare spending shows that much of the decrease cannot be addressed simply by "opening up." The decrease is because people are scared. Spending in GA has dropped as much as the overall national trend, and has not materially increased over the US average. It's not like people want to skip their cancer screenings, but they are.
https://imgur.com/xBLeNek
RE: The Georgia experiment - Mick - 05-12-2020
(05-12-2020, 09:51 AM)2006alum Wrote:(05-12-2020, 09:35 AM)Mick Wrote: I wonder how they track online purchases against in-store purchases. Most of the small businesses in our little town are shuttered. And I just spent a small fortune online.
I was wondering about this too. Are they tracking point of payment origin (i.e., if I order from LL Bean online in California, it's a California purchase even though the company operates in Maine?), or are they tracking point of receipt (so it'd count for Maine, not California)?
(05-12-2020, 09:35 AM)Mick Wrote: I wonder how they track online purchases against in-store purchases. Most of the small businesses in our little town are shuttered. And I just spent a small fortune online.
And right on time, here comes inflation:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/us-grocery-costs-jump-the-most-in-46-years-led-by-rising-prices-for-meat-and-eggs.html
That's not quite what I took away from this article:
Quote:The grocery numbers stand in stark contrast to the broader trend in U.S. prices, which fell 0.8% in April and clinched their largest one-month decline since 2008 as a swoon in oil and gasoline dragged the headline CPI number lower. . . .
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core CPI dropped 0.4%, its largest slump ever through records kept since 1957.
Like I said, deflation right around the corner... ;)
RE: The Georgia experiment - Farm93 - 05-12-2020
(05-12-2020, 12:36 PM)Mick Wrote: Like I said, deflation right around the corner... ;)Never understood your worry about inflation. The medical and corresponding economic uncertainties will create an incentive for savings unknown in the USA for decades.
Several major sectors of the economy are in serious trouble. Not coincidentally, many of them are industries that thrive on discretionary income (autos, airlines, hotels, etc.), so we won't see inflationary pressures from any of those segments. And the housing market will be crushed for too many reasons to note.
Historically inflation is a function of wage pressures. Well, last I checked there is a very large portion of the workforce that needs to find work even if the pay is a mere fraction of their prior wage rate. Companies doing well have to know they don't need to offer generous wages to keep their employees, even if their employees could easily interview for new jobs.
Those forces are very deflationary in nature. We aren't seeing that pandemic related deflationary pressure because of all the "cheap" money issued by the Fed and Congress.
When a vaccine is identified and if it issued rapidly to 75+% of our population then LOOK OUT! The drive for emergency savings will end and it could be coupled with pent up demand for all types of leisure and luxury goods. That's a nice mix of events to create inflation, though even then it will be offset by the massive unemployment in the workforce and devastated retail real estate sector.
I think the only way inflation really impacts the USA in 2020 will be if the virus magically and definitively goes away in days as POTUS45 has predicted a few times. While inflation would be a problem in that scenario given all the cheap money floating around, I think all of us would take that problem over COVID19 dominating life on the planet until 2022.
RE: The Georgia experiment - BostonCard - 05-12-2020
(05-12-2020, 12:36 PM)Mick Wrote: Like I said, deflation right around the corner... ;)
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/us-grocery-costs-jump-the-most-in-46-years-led-by-rising-prices-for-meat-and-eggs.html
This is why they preface the core CPI as excludingh "volatile food and energy". As oil prices cratered, prices for some groceries have increased dramatically. And by "dramatically" I mean 2.6%.
BC
RE: The Georgia experiment - needle - 05-17-2020
Update, as of May 17:
Friday, April 24
Confirmed new cases: 809
7-day average: 746.6
NOTE: The Apr. 24 numbers changed by less than 2% compared to what was reported on the GA state website May 10.
Friday, May 8
Confirmed new cases: 507
7-day average: 502.7
NOTE: The May 8 numbers changed by about 900% compared to what was reported May 10.
Friday, May 15
Confirmed new cases: 222
7-day average: 369.1
NOTE: As of May 17
+++
We'll need more time to see what the trend is post-reopening.
Quote:Georgia allowed gyms, barber shops and bowling alleys, among other businesses, to re-open April 24.
Limited dine-in restaurant service was allowed to begin April 27. (It should be noted that many restaurants decided against re-opening on this date.)
RE: The Georgia experiment - magnus - 05-17-2020
(05-17-2020, 12:16 PM)needle Wrote: Update, as of May 17:
Friday, April 24
Confirmed new cases: 809
7-day average: 746.6
NOTE: The Apr. 24 numbers changed by less than 2% compared to what was reported on the GA state website May 10.
Friday, May 8
Confirmed new cases: 507
7-day average: 502.7
NOTE: The May 8 numbers changed by about 900% compared to what was reported May 10.
Friday, May 15
Confirmed new cases: 222
7-day average: 369.1
NOTE: As of May 17
If we compare this week's snapshot to last week's we may be able to pull out some trends.
This week we have:
2 days ago: 222/369.1
1 weeks ago: 507/502.7
2 weeks ago: 732/682.9 (from graph)
3 weeks ago: 809/746.6
Last week, we had (from OP):
2 days ago: 51/258.6
2 weeks ago: 797/739.4
So the 2 weeks ago number is decreasing.
But the 2 days ago number has increased.
The 2 weeks ago number wouldn't reflect the relaxing of restrictions much so that makes sense.
The 2 days ago...either it represents many people's worst fears...or we have a sample size that is too small, given the backfilling of data.
Next week should bring a little more clarity.
RE: The Georgia experiment - OutsiderFan - 05-17-2020
(05-17-2020, 12:16 PM)needle Wrote: Update, as of May 17:
Friday, April 24
Confirmed new cases: 809
7-day average: 746.6
NOTE: The Apr. 24 numbers changed by less than 2% compared to what was reported on the GA state website May 10.
Friday, May 8
Confirmed new cases: 507
7-day average: 502.7
NOTE: The May 8 numbers changed by about 900% compared to what was reported May 10.
Friday, May 15
Confirmed new cases: 222
7-day average: 369.1
NOTE: As of May 17
+++
We'll need more time to see what the trend is post-reopening.
Quote:Georgia allowed gyms, barber shops and bowling alleys, among other businesses, to re-open April 24.
Limited dine-in restaurant service was allowed to begin April 27. (It should be noted that many restaurants decided against re-opening on this date.)
I'm curious to know if Georgia is doing as much testing as previously, or finding fewer cases because not testing as much. I believe the White House now believes if you don't test there will be fewer cases. Of course, the idiocy of this is obvious, so not even going to bother pointing it out.
RE: The Georgia experiment - magnus - 05-17-2020
(05-17-2020, 02:01 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I'm curious to know if Georgia is doing as much testing as previously, or finding fewer cases because not testing as much. I believe the White House now believes if you don't test there will be fewer cases. Of course, the idiocy of this is obvious, so not even going to bother pointing it out.
A cynic would say this is the underlying plan from day 1. Raise the requirements for testing so that few people can get tested. No cases!
Unfortunately, we've never been able to get out in front of this virus. We've been read and reacting as opposed to setting the tone. Whether it be testing or PPEs or probably numerous other things.
RE: The Georgia experiment - stupac2 - 05-17-2020
You can control for that by looking at the positive percentage, though not all states report that.
RE: The Georgia experiment - BostonCard - 05-17-2020
(05-17-2020, 02:01 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(05-17-2020, 12:16 PM)needle Wrote: Update, as of May 17:
Friday, April 24
Confirmed new cases: 809
7-day average: 746.6
NOTE: The Apr. 24 numbers changed by less than 2% compared to what was reported on the GA state website May 10.
Friday, May 8
Confirmed new cases: 507
7-day average: 502.7
NOTE: The May 8 numbers changed by about 900% compared to what was reported May 10.
Friday, May 15
Confirmed new cases: 222
7-day average: 369.1
NOTE: As of May 17
+++
We'll need more time to see what the trend is post-reopening.
Quote:Georgia allowed gyms, barber shops and bowling alleys, among other businesses, to re-open April 24.
Limited dine-in restaurant service was allowed to begin April 27. (It should be noted that many restaurants decided against re-opening on this date.)
I'm curious to know if Georgia is doing as much testing as previously, or finding fewer cases because not testing as much. I believe the White House now believes if you don't test there will be fewer cases. Of course, the idiocy of this is obvious, so not even going to bother pointing it out.
Testing has continually increased, even in Georgia. It might be that some things we've assumed about the virus are wrong. It might be that opening or not opening doesn't make much of a difference because everyone who can social distance is social distancing, or it may be that somewhere down the line we will see an outbreak, but that these things respond slowly to policy changes. Whatever it is, however, it does seem clear that Georgia, along with most other states in the US, are seeing a declining number of cases (and of deaths), and this is undoubtably a good thing.
BC
RE: The Georgia experiment - magnus - 05-17-2020
(05-17-2020, 04:39 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Whatever it is, however, it does seem clear that Georgia, along with most other states in the US, are seeing a declining number of cases (and of deaths), and this is undoubtably a good thing.
Based on needle's posted numbers, it doesn't seem very clear to me about Georgia. Relative numbers are increasing week to week. Perhaps this is because of increased testing, but that just proves that it is unclear...at least based on the numbers above.
Though I think that with social distance now ingrained in most of our behaviors, the spike in numbers are going to come more from super spreader environments (nursing homes, churches, public transit, factories/plants) as opposed to other less crowded places.
RE: The Georgia experiment - BostonCard - 05-17-2020
![[Image: image.png]](https://www.evernote.com/l/ACwrD7X9mN9G2Z9AO4b00j-bijufHGmb49sB/image.png)
The data comes from the New York Times. Blue is new daily cases, red is new daily deaths. The lines are LOESS curves. The trend looks to be slowly dropping to me (at worst, it is flat).
BC
lex24 - lex24 - 05-17-2020
You know, I just hope it works. And my definition of it “ working” is that there isn’t a big jump in deaths. (And the hospitals aren’t overrun). Period. If that’s the case, then as far as I’m concerned it worked. I’ll leave the models, charts etc to others.