Five Alabama players test positive

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RE: Five Alabama players test positive - M T - 06-05-2020

(06-05-2020, 02:22 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: But absent that -- with only say marginal improvements from therapeutics -- aren't states with rapidly rising cases headed toward another shutdown?

Ah, you mean like California.

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - Farm93 - 06-05-2020

(06-05-2020, 02:22 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: And no, just telling all the players to get sick now (or hinting that they should) is wrong in so many ways -- is our entertainment and money more important than their health and safety? Do we know they'll be immune? And if the case is mild, will they have enough antibodies to make it through a season? This is how the "let's all get Covid" plan works out for a football team -- they decide to all get sick -- some get sick, some don't. It keeps spreading for a month. By mid July, everyone is sick and may infect other people in the program, their families, their professors, their classmates, their community. And I hope all their coaches and trainers have hardy immune systems (Nick Saban is 68). Even if the case is mild, your whole team has at least a flu all training camp, and some of them have by far the worst flu of their lives. A few may have lifelong damage to their lungs. Most players are not doing anything for 2 weeks. They're weak for another 2 weeks after that. They're hacking up a terrible cough for another 2 weeks after that. So now it's October, they are 1-3 due to losses and forfeits, with their only win coming against the Trojans, with no conditioning, no weight training in 3 months, and no playbook.

I think you are overplaying the net impact to 18-23 year-olds in very good physical health.
And you concerns for Nick actually work against the argument.

In June they should not to be working out with their head coach, so the players get sick without him around. That's WAY better than a few getting sick near precious Nick in September. But, let's not focus on what's best for Nick's survival.

Teams in European soccer leagues and F1 teams have been down this ethical dilemma road. Inevitably, someone from the outside rushed in and said it was inappropriate or unethical. Check.

But would it offer a competitive advantage? Almost certainly yes...
A 20 year-old athlete will not be struggling with COVID for the duration you mentioned. If 85 guys got the virus in June, data suggests at least 45 of them would have very mild cases or cases without symptoms. That number might even approach 70 or more. Let's use 45. The other 40 would have more extreme cases, but very few would require hospitalization. Let's call that 10, which again is far above the rate of the data for the age group. Most of those 10 would get back in time, but even if not you'd enter the season knowing they are not available. It would be better, from a coach perspective, to lose the 10 players in preseason and plan accordingly than to lose an unknown group of players days before the game vs LSU or GA because of a positive mid-week test result.

And let's not forget, as you correctly noted, a group this size in Alabama attending the University of Alabama will likely have a big risk of an outbreak a few weeks after the season starts because of all the spread issues you observed.

If an outbreak is almost unavoidable would you rather have the team be exposed in June or September?
This is not THAT crazy. Sweden literally chose this herd immunity path for their entire country.
It was probably not the right choice given the death rate in those above 50 years of age.
I would argue a football team could get there because the fatality concerns are so much lower, and the timing benefits are so much higher.
Especially if the players could get antibodies before they start working closely with the elderly members of their coaching staff.

To avoid the biggest ethical concerns I don't want to imply a staff will demand players get exposed, but a team that has an outbreak in June could have a competitive advantage.

Imagine this scenario - Georgia coming to Bama in late September
The University of Alabama has an outbreak that is forcing large numbers of ordinary students, faculty and staff into isolation.
Testing doesn't cover everyone in real time, so the prevailing belief is many people across the state are likely shedding the virus.

Would you as the Georgia team want to go to that campus to play a game even if fans were not in the stands?
Think about how many local officials your average visiting player might encounter during that trip.
Hotel staff, bus drivers, police officers, stadium security, stadium maintenance staff, etc. etc.
With each encounter bringing up new worries for the GA players and staff about testing positive a few days later and missing future games this season per the testing protocol.

If you were the UGA coach, it sure would be nice to know your team was already loaded with antibodies so you don't have to worry about those chance encounters in Alabama causing 10-20 players to miss 2 or 3 future games because of a positive test result. Right?

As the NCAA says, there are thousands of student-athletes.
My guess is at least a few will accidentally, or intentionally, discover a competitive advantage this season - COVID19 Antibodies

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - Snorlax94 - 06-05-2020

(06-05-2020, 06:56 AM)Farm93 Wrote: As the NCAA says, there are thousands of student-athletes.
My guess is at least a few will accidentally, or intentionally, discover a competitive advantage this season - COVID19 Antibodies

You may be right that it works out like you predict, but my guess is that it would NOT go smoothly like that.

For one, it’s not like chicken pox. Even if every player hung out with the confirmed positive cases for hours in a small room, not all of them will get infected. Try as they might, their young immune systems may protect them — that time. We still don’t know exactly who will shed virus and when, it’s not like clock-work. But given the exhaustion of two-a-days, maybe they get infected a month later, or two, and suddenly you still have a lot of players sick during the season.

Second, once people get wind of this they’re gonna shut it down. If a whole team is infected and some kids go to a local restaurant, get the staff sick, and an elderly family member dies, and the community learns the players got infected *intentionally*, there’s going to be deserved outrage, and maybe even criminal or financial liability.

Also, so many people feel sick and are convinced they have Covid, but they don’t. Even in March, only like 10% of tests were coming back positive. People who had terrible flu-like symptoms earlier this year who get seroprevalence tests often find out it wasn’t Covid. So, unless everything lines up, the kids could just be spreading colds among themselves. Just imagine an entire team sick for a month because they thought they were giving each other Covid, but they instead had given each other the flu.

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - M T - 06-05-2020

(06-05-2020, 06:56 AM)Farm93 Wrote: If 85 guys got the virus in June, data suggests at least 45 of them would have very mild cases or cases without symptoms. That number might even approach 70 or more. Let's use 45. The other 40 would have more extreme cases, but very few would require hospitalization. Let's call that 10, which again is far above the rate of the data for the age group.

What is your source of data for that age group?
South Korea data doesn't include hospitalization and has age groups 10-20 and 20-30.
NYC has a large age group of 18-44. In that group, case rate (per 100K) is 2200; hospitalization rate is 244; death rate is 20.
So death rate is 8% of hospitalized (0.9% of case rate). Hospitalized is about 11% of case rate.
(Unfortunately, I don't know stats for those that develop serious, permanent injuries to their lungs or other organs.)

NCAA indicates about 97K men and 86K women are Division I student-athletes. Of those 183K, if all lived in NYC in spring 2020, and were representative of that age group, and were exposed at the rate of that city, about 4000 would get a case of COVID-19 (this is not claiming that 4000 would have the infection -- that number might be much higher -- nor am I claiming these numbers apply if all were infected). Of those, 440 would be hospitalized, 36 would die. Athletes might be more or less likely to have co-morbidities than the general population (probably fewer obese, but I wouldn't know about hypertension, etc.). There are a higher percentage of athletes that are male than in the general population.

If you use the 50% asymptomatic estimates, then a team of 100 that get infected will have 50 with symptoms. If we equate that with cases as found in NYC, then of those 50, about 5.5 would be hospitalized, and 0.44 would die. (Across the PAC-12, that would be 5.3 would die.)

If you use the Stanford antibody study numbers, the team of 100 would only have about 2 that would be counted as cases, so about 0.22 would be hospitalized, 0.02 would die. But the Stanford numbers would indicate 132K out of every 100K in NYC been infected. (To be fair, testing protocols have changed in the last 2 months.)

As for timing, if 100 college men get sick in the summer, who is taking care of them? I don't know what percentage of college-age people still live with their parents. 20yo men probably have parents in the 40-50 age range. Without bothering to run the numbers, I think more parents would die than athletes.

(06-05-2020, 06:56 AM)Farm93 Wrote: My guess is at least a few will accidentally, or intentionally, discover a competitive advantage this season - COVID19 Antibodies

Like using steroids, some will pay heavily.

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - Farm93 - 06-05-2020

(06-05-2020, 02:50 PM)M T Wrote: What is your source of data for that age group?
South Korea data doesn't include hospitalization and has age groups 10-20 and 20-30.
NYC has a large age group of 18-44. In that group, case rate (per 100K) is 2200; hospitalization rate is 244; death rate is 20.
So death rate is 8% of hospitalized (0.9% of case rate). Hospitalized is about 11% of case rate.
(Unfortunately, I don't know stats for those that develop serious, permanent injuries to their lungs or other organs.)

NYC is an outlier
SCC CA has data by age, for example.
Can't get better than 0% for those under 30.
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

Again though...all of "us" would see that as reasonably well educated non-college athletes.

Remember in the USA, a group of Wisconsin justices declared a Governor's order was not allowed and hours later a hundred people crowded into a bar to celebrate.  In FL some idiot decided to film a wannabe rapper video, and almost a thousand people came to the scene to be part of the festivities. In GA, people dashed to salons to get their nails done even while the Atlanta mayor begged citizens to wait.

Those crazies just risked everything for a few hours of fun or rather trivial services.

Is it that hard to imagine others would risk quite a bit less (given their age and access to healthcare) for a competitive advantage?

Remember athletes as a group will have some that...
Inject steroids without supervision, take growth hormone sometimes for animal use, dabble in EPO, inject pain killers to postpone needed surgeries, and deny concussions to finish out a game. That's just to name a few risky behaviors some pursue for a competitive edge.

FWIW - I just don't see how D1 athletes given their exposure to buses, airplanes, hotels, media types, trainers and fans, not to mention their fellow students on campus, will avoid getting this virus before a vaccine is available.

I am not trying to say all would do it, rather I am trying to note that there will be some that will see a very significant silver lining in testing positive today, like those 5 Bama players. And unlike steroids or EPO or amphetamines having antibodies would not include the risk of suspension during the season. However, those not having the antibodies might be banned from playing if they test positive for the virus during the season.

I would bet most football coaches would rather have 30 players test positive in June than have 30 players test positive in October. Just a hunch.
And one that in other places in the world sports leaders proposed. Do you really believe not a single coach or player has thought about this upside too?

https://motorsports.nbcsports.com/2020/03/30/red-bulls-marko-says-he-proposed-formula-one-coronavirus-camp/

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - OutsiderFan - 06-07-2020

This cavalier attitude about positive virus tests in athletes is going to beg some existential questions raised by what is reported here.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/

How much do we value the health of minorities who will get really sick, versus the majority who won’t. What will society give up to protect the most vulnerable among us?

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - 82lsju - 06-07-2020

well in another sport (F1) that has always had the best interests of the its owners (not its participants) in mind they considered a "coronavirus camp"

Quote:F1's season has been indefinitely suspended by the global pandemic. Marko, who runs the famous Red Bull programme which brought the likes of Sebastian Vettel, Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen into F1, said this period of inactivity was the perfect time for the company's drivers to contract the virus to ensure they would not fall ill later in the year.

"The idea was to organise a camp where we could bridge this mentally and physically somewhat dead time," Marko told Austrian TV station ORF. "And that would be the ideal time for the infection to come.

"These are all strong young men in really good health. That way they would be prepared whenever the action starts. And you can be ready for what will probably be a very tough championship once it starts."

He added: "Let's put it this way: it has not been well received."

https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/28969754/red-bull-advisor-considered-camp-infect-drivers-coronavirus

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - OutsiderFan - 06-07-2020

F1 is back on July 5th. It's got probably the biggest challenge of any sport since it has to travel from country to country and F1 teams are pretty damn big. They can do their distancing at the track, but the hotels and planes will be risky.

I'm assuming college campuses and their sports have a high chance of having bad outcomes, for reasons discussed here already.

The NBA has the best chance of avoiding problems with its bubble plan, but even that isn't full proof, because you only need one infection in the bubble and it could be a problem.

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - Farm93 - 06-07-2020

(06-07-2020, 10:16 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: F1 is back on July 5th. It's got probably the biggest challenge of any sport since it has to travel from country to country and F1 teams are pretty damn big. They can do their distancing at the track, but the hotels and planes will be risky.

I'm assuming college campuses and their sports have a high chance of having bad outcomes, for reasons discussed here already.

The NBA has the best chance of avoiding problems with its bubble plan, but even that isn't full proof, because you only need one infection in the bubble and it could be a problem.

The rate of active COVID cases in those coming back voluntarily suggests this whole hybrid model will not work. It is not going to work for the athletes, the sports or the universities. :(

A few campuses opened up last week and already several universities report several athletes have tested positive. And presumably all of these athletes are in rather good physical health and returned to campus ASAP to start rigorous training.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/us/universities-athletic-programs-coronavirus/index.html

Imagine what will happen in August/September when students from all over the world, some in less than great shape, report to campus because classes are about to start and if they do not show up they may not be allowed to enroll.
How many of them (all schools not just Stanford) will get tested as often as these first few D1 athletes?

If I was a coach, I would stress to all of my athletes that we really want them back on campus ASAP to get tested, and if applicable treatment. I would anticipate that this whole testing and isolation program won't work and the team will lose July to positive COVID tests. For a coach that's a relatively viable option.

Maybe a coach is willing to risk his/her health to work with athletes outdoors or in a massive indoor arena, especially given their healthy compensation is tied to winning.

Would a college professor want to take on a similar risk to teach undergrads, especially if they are working on multi-million research projects?

If a relatively small pool of athletes is producing dozens of cases what will happen in August? How many cases would a school need to see before they have to just shut everything down? How many positive cases would need to be floating around a college at the start of a term before parents, or the students themselves, decide to opt out?

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - magnus - 06-12-2020

6 University of Houston athletes tested positive prompting the school to shut down workouts.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/29304189/university-houston-suspends-workouts-six-student-athletes-test-positive

Of note, students were not tested upon return unless they had symptoms.

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - OutsiderFan - 06-13-2020

(06-12-2020, 10:18 PM)magnus Wrote: 6 University of Houston athletes tested positive prompting the school to shut down workouts.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/29304189/university-houston-suspends-workouts-six-student-athletes-test-positive

Of note, students were not tested upon return unless they had symptoms.

Harris County, TX (Houston) is on verge of disaster so not surprising. In a month, I don’t think there will be very much optimism about playing sports.

RE: Five Alabama players test positive - fullmetal - 06-14-2020

Hospitals in my neck of the woods are reporting marked increases in covid admissions over the last couple of days. It's a long way til August.