The Swedish Experience - Printable Version

The Swedish Experience - Printable Version

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RE: The Swedish Experience - Mick - 06-29-2020

(06-28-2020, 06:58 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: The reason for examining this experience, and the the suggestion of nuance, is simple. It isn't so much that persuasion or force won't work, but that we have run out of authority. The basic anti-authoritarian 'don't-tread-on-me', element in American culture is in full play now. The absence of Presidential leadership doesn't help, but it is also true that it runs very deep in this society. Generally, that's an aspect of the culture to be appreciated. However, no question it is a problem in a pandemic.

So you try to think of some way to finesse this situation. Generally speaking, the slow retreat being undertaken by Newsome and Abbot seems most practical.

I think we're heading for a brief period of increasing anarchic behavior, which is emblematic of the American approach to dealing with COVID-19...stupid behavior with zero care for one's neighbors on the part of at least a large minority of our citizens (Feels like 30% to 40%, depending on where you are). I also think we're likely headed for a totalitarian society within a generation or two. The totalitarians won the COVID-19 argument, at least how to deal with it.

RE: The Swedish Experience - Genuine Realist - 06-29-2020

(06-28-2020, 11:56 PM)akiddoc Wrote: "I don't think the failure to bring the curve down is based on a political statement or a "don't tread on me" attitude. Yes, such people exist. However, the vast majority of the problem is IMHO people who just don't get it or that get it and just don't care."

I think the don't tread on me attitude goes hand in hand with the just don't care attitude. And I think it is often political.

In my small part of the Bay Area, compliance with social distancing and mask wearing is amazingly universal. My wife and I went to the farmer's market in Montclair Village (Oakland) today and I did not see a single person without a mask on. Even the little kids had them on - although most people did not have their kids there. All of the restaurants were allowing one customer at a time to come in and pick up their orders. One restaurant had outdoor tables - very far apart. Same story in Rite Aid - everyone with a mask, everyone keeping their distance. Maybe it's just my neighborhood. I'm not sure. I was sure happy to see that everyone cared about their neighbors.

Universal social distancing in Mountain View is also the norm, in closed settings. (Outdoors is a different thing.) I believe that is likely the case throughout Santa Clara County. And yet the cases continue to rise after the partial reopening. Why?

It certainly isn't due to any affection for Trump of the example he sets. This isn't Trump country, to put it mildly. Open hostility to authority of the 'don't tread on me' type also is not the type of open resistance you encounter around here. Yet I do believe the countercultural anti-authoritarianism that is a fact of life in Silicon Valley is a species of that type.

Possibly the rise is just the mild spike that's inevitable with more social contact. We can hope so. Or possibly the virus is more contagious than anyone guessed, in which case real problems lie ahead.

The main point to me is that returning to ultra lockdown is not socially or politically possible. We are going to have to look for tightened regulations of social distancing among those business enterprises that can be regulated, and continue on that path.

RE: The Swedish Experience - oregontim - 06-29-2020

Thanks Goose. Useful additions here, and I did ask ;)

(06-28-2020, 09:25 PM)Goose Wrote:
(06-28-2020, 08:01 PM)oregontim Wrote: My sense of Canada and Australia is that both have cultures roughly similar to our own regarding independence and anti-authoritarianism (that's not my expertise, so correct me if I'm wrong).
I am pretty sure you are wrong. I spend lots of time in Australia, and I have worked with the Canadian Forces in the past. Certainly in Australia there is a sense of obligation to society and to your fellow Australian that simply does not exist in the USA. ...
From my experience in Canada, it is somewhat similar. ... the sense of "Don't tread on me" isn't really there. There are lots of historical reasons for this, but Canadians basically complain about things a lot and then do as they are told.
However, IMHO that turns out not to be the real issue anyway.

...The vast majority of the problem is IMHO people who just don't get it or that get it and just don't care.
If all the trouble was clustered in "Red States", I would agree it might be political. But that is not the case. We have lots of trouble right here in California...

Yes, better leadership might help this problem a bit, but I think only a bit. Many of the people not following the SIP guidelines would tell you how socially responsible they are one minute and then turn around and do the opposite. Maybe when these people are scared enough that will affect their behavior. Until then, it won't. These people may eventually get with the program, but by then it may be very late in the game.

RE: The Swedish Experience - BostonCard - 06-29-2020

I wonder if a bit of what is going on is just capitulation to what seems like inevitability of the spread. It’s easy to see everything that’s going on around and conclude that if no one else is taking this seriously, why should we do so.

BC

(06-29-2020, 06:16 AM)Mick Wrote:
(06-28-2020, 06:58 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: The reason for examining this experience, and the the suggestion of nuance, is simple. It isn't so much that persuasion or force won't work, but that we have run out of authority. The basic anti-authoritarian 'don't-tread-on-me', element in American culture is in full play now. The absence of Presidential leadership doesn't help, but it is also true that it runs very deep in this society. Generally, that's an aspect of the culture to be appreciated. However, no question it is a problem in a pandemic.

So you try to think of some way to finesse this situation. Generally speaking, the slow retreat being undertaken by Newsome and Abbot seems most practical.

I think we're heading for a brief period of increasing anarchic behavior, which is emblematic of the American approach to dealing with COVID-19...stupid behavior with zero care for one's neighbors on the part of at least a large minority of our citizens (Feels like 30% to 40%, depending on where you are). I also think we're likely headed for a totalitarian society within a generation or two. The totalitarians won the COVID-19 argument, at least how to deal with it.

When Noah Smith wrote this, I thought he was channeling his inner Mick.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-29/coronavirus-brings-american-decline-out-in-the-open

Of course, in 1948, McArthur was already going on about American declineism, though this time really does seem different.

BC

RE: The Swedish Experience - Goose - 06-29-2020

(06-29-2020, 02:32 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I wonder if a bit of what is going on is just capitulation to what seems like inevitability of the spread. It’s easy to see everything that’s going on around and conclude that if no one else is taking this seriously, why should we do so.

BC

Totally agree. That is one of the reasons I have been pounding on San Mateo County to release numbers for their contact tracing. People need to know that somebody IS doing something, it is kind of working, and it will work better if we all "do the right thing". It is easy to rationalize not taking it seriously when others are not. You may full well know you shouldn't do "X", but since it is hopeless anyway, why not? You need to know it is not hopeless.

RE: The Swedish Experience - BostonCard - 07-03-2020

The Swedish prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the failure of their no lockdown strategy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7

With 537 deaths per million people, Sweden’s death rate is approaching Italy’s and Spain’s.

BC

RE: The Swedish Experience - Mick - 07-04-2020

(07-03-2020, 11:06 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The Swedish prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the failure of their no lockdown strategy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7

With 537 deaths per million people, Sweden’s death rate is approaching Italy’s and Spain’s.

BC

We're at 399 deaths per million. How soon before we hit Belgium/UK/Italy/Spain/Sweden's death rates?

RE: The Swedish Experience - BostonCard - 07-04-2020

(07-04-2020, 06:08 AM)Mick Wrote:
(07-03-2020, 11:06 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The Swedish prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the failure of their no lockdown strategy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7

With 537 deaths per million people, Sweden’s death rate is approaching Italy’s and Spain’s.

BC

We're at 399 deaths per million. How soon before we hit Belgium/UK/Italy/Spain/Sweden's death rates?

We are currently averaging about 600 deaths per day (7 day rolling average), so that is about 2 deaths per million per day. At this pace, it will take us about 2 months to reach a cumulative 520 deaths per million, and about 3.5 months to reach 600 deaths per million, which is where Spain is. Belgium is at 843 deaths per million (what the hell happened in Belgium hasn’t been discussed enough), so at the current pace it would take us over 6 months to get there.

Of course, the current death rate will not remain constant. It has been declining (and has continued to do so, albeit at a slower pace, even as the number of cases has increased). If it starts rising again, as new patients succumb to CoVID-19, it will happens faster. If the death rate continues to decline (or this case count starts to decline as individuals and communities shut down again), then it might take longer, or we may never get there. Lastly, while the mortality rate in most of Europe (Outside Sweden) is small enough not to make that much of a difference, there may we’ll be a second spike in Europe, in which case deaths there may well spike again.

BC

RE: The Swedish Experience - oldalum - 07-04-2020

Was Sweden's approach to (try to) protect the vulnerable and let the infection run through everyone else to achieve herd immunity? If so, was the "problem" (in addition to inadequately protecting the most vulnerable) that the people did not cooperate in going about business as usual--they on their own took protective measures so that herd immunity was not obtained? Or was social distancing etc. promoted, in which case I don't understand the approach at all. Or was it half-hearted social distancing? I'm confused, please help?

RE: The Swedish Experience - BostonCard - 07-04-2020

(07-04-2020, 10:50 AM)oldalum Wrote: Was Sweden's approach to (try to) protect the vulnerable and let the infection run through everyone else to achieve herd immunity? If so, was the "problem" (in addition to inadequately protecting the most vulnerable) that the people did not cooperate in going about business as usual--they on their own took protective measures so that herd immunity was not obtained? Or was social distancing etc. promoted, in which case I don't understand the approach at all. Or was it half-hearted social distancing? I'm confused, please help?

Yes, I believe that was their stated goal, though I do think they were expecting some social distancing; just not mandated by the government.

BC

RE: The Swedish Experience - ChicagoCard - 07-05-2020

I thought this recent Politico article on Sweden and its approach was informative and beyond merely superficial. For whatever it's worth:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/03/what-sweden-can-teach-us-about-coronavirus-348462

RE: The Swedish Experience - BostonCard - 07-07-2020

Sweden is now being written as a "cautionary tale".

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

BC

RE: The Swedish Experience - Genuine Realist - 07-08-2020

(07-07-2020, 05:02 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Sweden is now being written as a "cautionary tale".

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

BC

I'm afraid the NYT forfeited objectivity status some time ago.

RE: The Swedish Experience - BostonCard - 07-08-2020

That is a bit of an ad hominem attack on the Times. I mean, earlier I quoted a story where the Swedish Prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the handling of the virus. And I've noted that even as Sweden's neighbors (Denmark, Norway, and Finland) open their borders to each other, they have kept their borders closed to Sweden due to the high ongoing COVID-19 rate. Moreover, their stated goal, to develop herd immunity to the virus, appears not to have been achieved, so the purported benefit of the policy was not achieved.

That's not to sneer at Sweden. The policy seems to have been unorthodox, but, as the Politico article notes, was made with due consideration to risks and benefits and was driven by Sweden's chief epidemiologist. It appears to have been misguided, though as the Politico article makes clear, since the pandemic is by no means over, it is possible that over the long haul (next year), Sweden will have been proven correct, and other countries will face a recrudescence of the pandemic that will leave them in no better position than Sweden. But there is also a possibility that other countries will manage to keep a lid on infections and deaths until a vaccine is widely available, and that when all is said and done, Sweden will be facing a substantially higher toll from COVID-19 than its neighbors. I look forward to revisiting this once the pandemic is over to do an overall analysis of whether Sweden's response was a mistake or not.

BC

RE: The Swedish Experience - teejers1 - 07-08-2020

(07-08-2020, 11:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote: That is a bit of an ad hominem attack on the Times. I mean, earlier I quoted a story where the Swedish Prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the handling of the virus. And I've noted that even as Sweden's neighbors (Denmark, Norway, and Finland) open their borders to each other, they have kept their borders closed to Sweden due to the high ongoing COVID-19 rate. Moreover, their stated goal, to develop herd immunity to the virus, appears not to have been achieved, so the purported benefit of the policy was not achieved.

That's not to sneer at Sweden. The policy seems to have been unorthodox, but, as the Politico article notes, was made with due consideration to risks and benefits and was driven by Sweden's chief epidemiologist. It appears to have been misguided, though as the Politico article makes clear, since the pandemic is by no means over, it is possible that over the long haul (next year), Sweden will have been proven correct, and other countries will face a recrudescence of the pandemic that will leave them in no better position than Sweden. But there is also a possibility that other countries will manage to keep a lid on infections and deaths until a vaccine is widely available, and that when all is said and done, Sweden will be facing a substantially higher toll from COVID-19 than its neighbors. I look forward to revisiting this once the pandemic is over to do an overall analysis of whether Sweden's response was a mistake or not.

BC

Agree that Sweden's response was based on its own priorities and that an evaluation of the success of that versus those pursued in other countries is best analyzed when all is said and done on the virus (including, if ever, a vaccine is widely available). Having said that, I think it's fair to say, as Sweden's own experts have, that they did not handle the elderly population as well as they should/could have. And that population still remains the driver in fatalities in all countries.

RE: The Swedish Experience - BostonCard - 07-08-2020

(07-08-2020, 12:23 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Agree that Sweden's response was based on its own priorities and that an evaluation of the success of that versus those pursued in other countries is best analyzed when all is said and done on the virus (including, if ever, a vaccine is widely available). Having said that, I think it's fair to say, as Sweden's own experts have, that they did not handle the elderly population as well as they should/could have. And that population still remains the driver in fatalities in all countries.

That's a very good point. I think one of the explicit goals of the "Swedish plan" was to insulate high risk populations, especially the elderly, from the pandemic. That seems not to have happened (or not to have been done well). I have seen suggestions made where the population is divided into three groups; a high risk group that remains isolated as much as possible from the general population, a low risk group that more or less maintains business as usual, and a transitional group that comes in contact with the high risk group (for example, caretakers), is tested frequently, and tries to maintain social distance from the low-risk group.

BC