Commentary on the Surge of Infections - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: Commentary on the Surge of Infections (/thread-19971.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: Commentary on the Surge of Infections (/thread-19971.html)
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - burger - 07-01-2020
Here's yet another article with health officials saying that the protests did not cause an increase in infections. This one's from NYC: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-protests.html
Money quote:
Quote:“We’ve been looking very closely at the number of positive cases every day to see if there is an uptick in the context of the protests,” Ted Long, executive director of the city’s contact tracing program, said. “We have not seen that.”
Several of you have come to the opposite conclusion despite there being little or no data to support your beliefs. Maybe you should be reexamining your beliefs instead of accusing others of cherry picking or whatever.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - oldalum - 07-01-2020
In an effort to remain evidence-based, is there any evidence of significant transmission of Covid-19 infections in a large outdoor gathering of any kind anywhere?
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - burger - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 11:18 AM)oldalum Wrote: In an effort to remain evidence-based, is there any evidence of significant transmission of Covid-19 infections in a large outdoor gathering of any kind anywhere?
A soccer match in Italy has been discussed a lot: https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/coronavirus-how-a-champions-league-match-contributed-to-italys-covid-19-outbreak/ But I couldn't find any good evidence that the fans had many cases. And that article raises the possibility that get-togethers after the match were the problem. A bunch of the soccer players ended up infected--that's not too surprising given how close soccer players get to one another during matches. Or maybe they just partied a lot after the match, too?
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - lex24 - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 11:16 AM)burger Wrote: Here's yet another article with health officials saying that the protests did not cause an increase in infections. This one's from NYC: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-protests.html
Money quote:
Quote:“We’ve been looking very closely at the number of positive cases every day to see if there is an uptick in the context of the protests,” Ted Long, executive director of the city’s contact tracing program, said. “We have not seen that.”
Several of you have come to the opposite conclusion despite there being little or no data to support your beliefs. Maybe you should be reexamining your beliefs instead of accusing others of cherry picking or whatever.
There is little to no data period on the impact. Again, it is simply common sense to suggest it played some part. Not a brobdingnagian one. But some.
Otherwise - play ball. Just have all fans wear masks.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - Genuine Realist - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 11:40 AM)burger Wrote:I would think that the primary effect might have been in undercutting the importance of continued social distancing (which was definitely secondary in the media coverage).(07-01-2020, 11:18 AM)oldalum Wrote: In an effort to remain evidence-based, is there any evidence of significant transmission of Covid-19 infections in a large outdoor gathering of any kind anywhere?
A soccer match in Italy has been discussed a lot: https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/coronavirus-how-a-champions-league-match-contributed-to-italys-covid-19-outbreak/ But I couldn't find any good evidence that the fans had many cases. And that article raises the possibility that get-togethers after the match were the problem. A bunch of the soccer players ended up infected--that's not too surprising given how close soccer players get to one another during matches. Or maybe they just partied a lot after the match, too?
The other factoids in the article shouldn't be ignored. Whatever is happening is happening to the younger population, which is good in so far as it goes in that the cases tend to be less serious.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - BostonCard - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 12:09 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: I would think that the primary effect might have been in undercutting the importance of continued social distancing (which was definitely secondary in the media coverage).
The other factoids in the article shouldn't be ignored. Whatever is happening is happening to the younger population, which is good in so far as it goes in that the cases tend to be less serious.
This seems plausible but hard to measure and hard to disentangle from other factors that also likely contributed to people de-emphasizing social distancing. But yes, it certainly could be.
BC
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - oregontim - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 10:37 AM)lex24 Wrote: And frankly, any study on this, imo, is likely to be skewed by politics. Either way.Yes of course and we can't get around it, with this and a lot of the information we get. The tribal wars of disinformation and lies are more responsible for our unruly noncompliance with pandemic than anything related to "don't tread on me" national character. I say it that way to avoid taking sides, but in doing so, I also plead guilty to false equivalence. IMO.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - ChicagoCard - 07-01-2020
Things can really devolve quickly on here. The best science should win the day but the person who argued that there was an offset with the protesters in having suppressed others from going out doesn't seem to me to be strengthening his or her argument. That was what I was referring to with cherry picking and I think it still stands.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - BostonCard - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 01:06 PM)ChicagoCard Wrote: Things can really devolve quickly on here. The best science should win the day but the person who argued that there was an offset with the protesters in having suppressed others from going out doesn't seem to me to be strengthening his or her argument. That was what I was referring to with cherry picking and I think it still stands.
I mean, the argument was based on an NBER paper with actual data from 315 of the largest US cities. And I said that I wasn’t sure I bought it. And I meant that genuinely. While the mechanism they ascribe seems plausible, I’m not yet convinced that the effect on non-protest goers is as large as they find. But I thought it was at least an interesting theory. I will post if I see a paper that shows that the protests were a risk factor (and I welcome anyone who finds one to do so). I would hope that if contact tracing did find a cluster related to the protests that it would be reported. Whether you support the protests or not, I’d rather future decisions be informed by data, and not priors.
BC
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - ChicagoCard - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 01:38 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I mean, the argument was based on an NBER paper with actual data from 315 of the largest US cities. And I said that I wasn’t sure I bought it. And I meant that genuinely. While the mechanism they ascribe seems plausible, I’m not yet convinced that the effect on non-protest goers is as large as they find. But I thought it was at least an interesting theory. I will post if I see a paper that shows that the protests were a risk factor (and I welcome anyone who finds one to do so). I would hope that if contact tracing did find a cluster related to the protests that it would be reported. Whether you support the protests or not, I’d rather future decisions be informed by data, and not priors.
BC
Oh I know, I remember your saying that. Looking forward to any further info you end up sharing.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - teejers1 - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 01:06 PM)ChicagoCard Wrote: Things can really devolve quickly on here. The best science should win the day but the person who argued that there was an offset with the protesters in having suppressed others from going out doesn't seem to me to be strengthening his or her argument. That was what I was referring to with cherry picking and I think it still stands.
In this largely echo-chamber board, I'd be pleased if folks' positions on policies responding to Covid were held irrespective of the WH occupant. Now, maybe that's the case; however, so many folks here are so virulently anti-Trump that it's hard to fully credit their "we need to lock down everything; stopping spread and saving lives, no matter the cost, is paramount; etc." because everyone knows the virtue of a cratered economy for purposes of the November elections. Fortunately, come November, we'll get to test this out and see if folks' views on pandemic responses remain consistent with President Biden. [And it's also fortunate that there will be a change at 1600 Pennsylvania; because if not, I seriously would have been concerned about the well-being of many posters on this site].
I can say without reservation that my views have not altered since the outbreak began (nor do I expect them to change), in terms of what should drive policy: hospital capacity. And that information should be 'front and center' on every story about surges here, and an uptick in cases there; indeed, it should be trumpeted on a daily basis in every county in the country. And there should be full transparency about what exactly is driving any capacity issues - seen or anticipated - including the percentage of Covid patients occupying regular beds, ICU beds, using ventilators, etc. That way you can see trends; tie them with positive testing fluctuations; and make sound policies based on data.
And LTCF data should also be reported and incorporated into the capacity data for obvious reasons, including that outbreaks there are like "shooting fish in a barrel," so to speak, and thus they are not representative of society at large.
I know I'm in the minority here, but I'm not THAT concerned about an increase in reported cases, per se. That is going to happen with relaxation of SiP and with increased testing. Certainly, fewer cases is better all things being equal. Where increased cases really raise concerns is when it is accompanied by the hospital capacity issues highlighted above. And I get that there is a time-lag, but that's why it's so important to be tracking this stuff up front, from the outset. I just am not sure we're seeing that clearly, even here in SCC where the dashboard is (or at least was) good on reporting capacity.
BTW, vis a vis protesters and Covid, I've never been convinced about outdoor transmission generally; thus, I just put protests in the bucket with all other outdoor activities - not a brobdingnagian deal. Are there certain circumstances where outdoor activities provide sufficient risk that it demands regulation? Yeah, I suppose, but it's hard to tick those off right now. Nor surprisingly, I find Newsom's "re-shutdown of the beaches" directive a mistake (and I hope it wasn't driven by some personal need to "show people who is in charge").
Lastly, the "valiant effort" to keep politics off the Covid board is somewhat amusing to behold. Every poster's position here is informed by their life experiences and situations, and way more often than not, that dictates their "views on the science" of the pandemic (and their politics. I suspect most folks have been able to keep their jobs, or otherwise are not concerned about how a tanking economy affects their personal finances and the health and well being of their families. That's great - everyone should be so fortunate. But that is not the case, particularly outside this board . . . which is why I think we tend to have an echo chamber effect in here when it comes to the best policies to follow.
Lastly, lastly . . . it appears that certain posters scan the Internet for instances of people not complying with smart distancing policies (including using masks) and use that as an indictment of Americans at large. The video of the guy at the Walmart (or some store) bullying his way past the greeter is the most recent example. The take of the poster was, IIRC, "this guy represents America and why we have failed in dealing with the pandemic." That's certainly one take. But I was struck by (well, after thinking what a douchebag the guy was) (a) the fact that everyone else in the clip was wearing a mask, (b) that the guy filming the incident managed to keep good humor about him while telling the guy he has to wear a mask like everyone else, and © the fact that the greeter was tenacious enough to stick with the violator and halt his progress into the store (he is the one to be commended here). Are all Americans following smart distancing policies? No. But the overwhelming majority are, even in the clips used to denigrate Americans as an outlaw bunch.
P.S. Goose, keep up the good fight on test and track/trace. You're right about its importance and need for boots on the ground (especially in absence of use of phone apps). I fear the horse has left the proverbial barn, but as BC has noted; every little bit of containment helps, so counties should not just throw in the towel.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - Goose - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 02:31 PM)teejers1 Wrote: P.S. Goose, keep up the good fight on test and track/trace. You're right about its importance and need for boots on the ground (especially in absence of use of phone apps). I fear the horse has left the proverbial barn, but as BC has noted; every little bit of containment helps, so counties should not just throw in the towel.
Thanks Teejers1, I will do so. It appears I am now persona non grata to San Mateo County Health. They didn't answer my last email strongly urging they post some data in order to encourage people to believe that all was not lost, that containment is possible, and SMC is doing it. I am going to wait until the end of the week to see if they do anything. Then it is emails to the Board of Supervisors. I really do hope that the horse hasn't left the barn, because if it has, I see no way the populace will continue to cooperate even to the extent they have. Staying shutdown until we have a vaccine just isn't in the cards, so we really need track and trace to work.
I must say that I don't believe the vast majority of the population is still complying with social distancing and masks. I think most of the people are doing it some of the time. I see this in my neighborhood clearly, where people who used to wear masks all the time pull them down the minute they exit the grocery store. They are still within a few feet of other people doing the same. Is this by itself a "big deal"? Probably not, but it all adds up. I had one lady tell me she was too tired to wear a mask today. I have tons or "stories", some of which are alarming, but suffice it to say that in my part of the Bay Area compliance is without question deteriorating. I think many people see the case count going up, assume continued increase is inevitable (and that our politicians at the County and State level are clueless) and therefore no point in trying very hard.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - M T - 07-01-2020
A T-shirt that might make heads turn & maybe think:
I can not know if
I Have COVID-19
I'm wearing my mask for your benefit.
Wear Your Mask.
6' now, or maybe 6' forever
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - 76lsjumb - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 05:09 PM)M T Wrote: A T-shirt that might make heads turn & maybe think:
I can not know ifI Have COVID-19
I'm wearing my mask for your benefit.Wear Your Mask.
6' now, or maybe 6' forever
Clever. The only problems seem to be that the small print is false -- get a test and you CAN know if you have COVID-19 -- and the large print is potentially misleading -- since everything seems to say that the primary reason for wearing a mask is to protect others from you, not you from others -- and might get you harassed, if not reported, for failing to follow health guidelines mandating that, if you have COVID-19, you should not be out and about in a t-shirt. And, of course, for those who have poor vision, they would likely need to get within 6' to read the small print.
Other than that, seems okay.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - lex24 - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 02:31 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(07-01-2020, 01:06 PM)ChicagoCard Wrote: Things can really devolve quickly on here. The best science should win the day but the person who argued that there was an offset with the protesters in having suppressed others from going out doesn't seem to me to be strengthening his or her argument. That was what I was referring to with cherry picking and I think it still stands.
In this largely echo-chamber board, I'd be pleased if folks' positions on policies responding to Covid were held irrespective of the WH occupant. Now, maybe that's the case; however, so many folks here are so virulently anti-Trump that it's hard to fully credit their "we need to lock down everything; stopping spread and saving lives, no matter the cost, is paramount; etc." because everyone knows the virtue of a cratered economy for purposes of the November elections. Fortunately, come November, we'll get to test this out and see if folks' views on pandemic responses remain consistent with President Biden. [And it's also fortunate that there will be a change at 1600 Pennsylvania; because if not, I seriously would have been concerned about the well-being of many posters on this site].
I can say without reservation that my views have not altered since the outbreak began (nor do I expect them to change), in terms of what should drive policy: hospital capacity. And that information should be 'front and center' on every story about surges here, and an uptick in cases there; indeed, it should be trumpeted on a daily basis in every county in the country. And there should be full transparency about what exactly is driving any capacity issues - seen or anticipated - including the percentage of Covid patients occupying regular beds, ICU beds, using ventilators, etc. That way you can see trends; tie them with positive testing fluctuations; and make sound policies based on data.
And LTCF data should also be reported and incorporated into the capacity data for obvious reasons, including that outbreaks there are like "shooting fish in a barrel," so to speak, and thus they are not representative of society at large.
I know I'm in the minority here, but I'm not THAT concerned about an increase in reported cases, per se. That is going to happen with relaxation of SiP and with increased testing. Certainly, fewer cases is better all things being equal. Where increased cases really raise concerns is when it is accompanied by the hospital capacity issues highlighted above. And I get that there is a time-lag, but that's why it's so important to be tracking this stuff up front, from the outset. I just am not sure we're seeing that clearly, even here in SCC where the dashboard is (or at least was) good on reporting capacity.
BTW, vis a vis protesters and Covid, I've never been convinced about outdoor transmission generally; thus, I just put protests in the bucket with all other outdoor activities - not a of immense proportions deal. Are there certain circumstances where outdoor activities provide sufficient risk that it demands regulation? Yeah, I suppose, but it's hard to tick those off right now. Nor surprisingly, I find Newsom's "re-shutdown of the beaches" directive a mistake (and I hope it wasn't driven by some personal need to "show people who is in charge").
Lastly, the "valiant effort" to keep politics off the Covid board is somewhat amusing to behold. Every poster's position here is informed by their life experiences and situations, and way more often than not, that dictates their "views on the science" of the pandemic (and their politics. I suspect most folks have been able to keep their jobs, or otherwise are not concerned about how a tanking economy affects their personal finances and the health and well being of their families. That's great - everyone should be so fortunate. But that is not the case, particularly outside this board . . . which is why I think we tend to have an echo chamber effect in here when it comes to the best policies to follow.
Lastly, lastly . . . it appears that certain posters scan the Internet for instances of people not complying with smart distancing policies (including using masks) and use that as an indictment of Americans at large. The video of the guy at the Walmart (or some store) bullying his way past the greeter is the most recent example. The take of the poster was, IIRC, "this guy represents America and why we have failed in dealing with the pandemic." That's certainly one take. But I was struck by (well, after thinking what a douchebag the guy was) (a) the fact that everyone else in the clip was wearing a mask, (b) that the guy filming the incident managed to keep good humor about him while telling the guy he has to wear a mask like everyone else, and © the fact that the greeter was tenacious enough to stick with the violator and halt his progress into the store (he is the one to be commended here). Are all Americans following smart distancing policies? No. But the overwhelming majority are, even in the clips used to denigrate Americans as an outlaw bunch.
P.S. Goose, keep up the good fight on test and track/trace. You're right about its importance and need for boots on the ground (especially in absence of use of phone apps). I fear the horse has left the proverbial barn, but as BC has noted; every little bit of containment helps, so counties should not just throw in the towel.
Nice post, Teejers. One add - what social media and the Internet does is take every instance of wrongdoing on a whole host of issues and blow it up to make it seem as if that’s the norm. Which is one of the major things I think dividing this country. Just my take.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - oldalum - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 02:31 PM)teejers1 Wrote: so many folks here are so virulently anti-Trump that it's hard to fully credit their "we need to lock down everything; stopping spread and saving lives, no matter the cost, is paramount; etc." because everyone knows the virtue of a cratered economy for purposes of the November elections.Probably the opposite: Trump's best scenario for re-election would have been a full-fledged nationwide locally-imposed major prolonged lockdown that would have greatly vanquished the infection and put the economy in full-fledged meltdown, because then he would not be held responsible for mismanaging the pandemic and according to polls he is still considered better than Biden at managing the economy--which would be his campaign focus.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - Mick - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 05:09 PM)M T Wrote: A T-shirt that might make heads turn & maybe think:
I can not know ifI Have COVID-19
I'm wearing my mask for your benefit.Wear Your Mask.
6' now, or maybe 6' forever
![[Image: 61wnaRc-4IL._SL1462_.jpg]](https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61wnaRc-4IL._SL1462_.jpg)
![[Image: 61nCajGTtBL._AC_UX385_.jpg]](https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61nCajGTtBL._AC_UX385_.jpg)
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - Farm93 - 07-01-2020
(07-01-2020, 04:21 PM)Goose Wrote:Let's remember. The SF Bay Area is looking amazing on COVID containment on a relative basis.(07-01-2020, 02:31 PM)teejers1 Wrote: P.S. Goose, keep up the good fight on test and track/trace. You're right about its importance and need for boots on the ground (especially in absence of use of phone apps). I fear the horse has left the proverbial barn, but as BC has noted; every little bit of containment helps, so counties should not just throw in the towel.
Thanks Teejers1, I will do so. It appears I am now persona non grata to San Mateo County Health. They didn't answer my last email strongly urging they post some data in order to encourage people to believe that all was not lost, that containment is possible, and SMC is doing it. I am going to wait until the end of the week to see if they do anything. Then it is emails to the Board of Supervisors. I really do hope that the horse hasn't left the barn, because if it has, I see no way the populace will continue to cooperate even to the extent they have. Staying shutdown until we have a vaccine just isn't in the cards, so we really need track and trace to work.
I must say that I don't believe the vast majority of the population is still complying with social distancing and masks. I think most of the people are doing it some of the time. I see this in my neighborhood clearly, where people who used to wear masks all the time pull them down the minute they exit the grocery store. They are still within a few feet of other people doing the same. Is this by itself a "big deal"? Probably not, but it all adds up. I had one lady tell me she was too tired to wear a mask today. I have tons or "stories", some of which are alarming, but suffice it to say that in my part of the Bay Area compliance is without question deteriorating. I think many people see the case count going up, assume continued increase is inevitable (and that our politicians at the County and State level are clueless) and therefore no point in trying very hard.
If you think the items you are noting are representative of the problems in the USA, I would submit you have a sampling problem.
In many places in the USA people are eating indoors in booths mere feet apart.
People roam the streets and stores convinced that masks are not needed and in some way infringe on their constitutional rights.
If we got to a place where everyone was wearing a mask indoors that would be a great start.
If we got to a place where everyone was wearing masks in parking lots and urban city streets that would be awesome.
If the USA was where the SF Bay Area is today, we would probably knock away 60% or more of our daily death count.
The goals have to appeal to the masses. We need baby steps or else the 30-45% that believe this is unnecessary hype will just refuse to comply. And if 30-45% of the USA is not following along, we are toast.
Baby step #1 - Get POTUS to please tell everyone to wear a mask when in public spaces. Best would be for him to tweet a picture with wearing a mask.
Baby step #2 - Have CDC request that every governor require masks when in public spaces and recommend that the mandate include increasing fines for repeat offenders.
Everything else sounds great, but with 30+% of the population rejecting orders at the onset COVID will continue to prevail.
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - chrisk - 07-01-2020
As diagnosed cases surged to a new record of more than 50K on July 1, it appears that Republican politicians have generally flipped to strongly supporting the wearing of masks. In a FOX interview today, enen the President gave a lukewarm endorsement of mask wearing and even claimed that he has been seen wearing a mask.
Despite the doom and gloom of the moment, I got some renewed inspiration by rereading this mid-May NY Times article about the triumph of science over politics in Taiwan.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/world/asia/taiwan-vice-president-coronavirus.html
RE: Commentary on the Surge of Infections - Hurlburt88 - 07-02-2020
I like how this particular model has now incorporated potential impact of masks
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america