Miracle, or disaster? - Printable Version
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RE: Miracle, or disaster? - M T - 08-01-2020
(07-31-2020, 07:17 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The thing to watch for is deaths reported. If we see deaths continue climbing, and we see a death rate higher than the number of cases reported over the last two weeks, in a few weeks, we'll know for certain that the reason case numbers dropped this week was because testing capacity was overwhelmed, not because there were fewer cases.
I think 2 weeks may be too little, but maybe I'll undertake this in a couple of weeks. Something like the ratio of cases in the period 2-4 weeks back per deaths in the current week. It would be interesting to see this for different states, and different larger entities (Houston, NYC, etc.).
It might be good to tie it into testing numbers at the time of the tests. Perhaps sort by that ratio and show the tests in the time period per 100K.
RE: Miracle, or disaster? - BostonCard - 08-01-2020
(07-31-2020, 07:17 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The thing to watch for is deaths reported. If we see deaths continue climbing, and we see a death rate higher than the number of cases reported over the last two weeks, in a few weeks, we'll know for certain that the reason case numbers dropped this week was because testing capacity was overwhelmed, not because there were fewer cases.
Actually, deaths could increase even if the number of cases flatten or even decline. Early in the "second wave" (forget the semantic question of whether we are in a second wave or still the first wave), a lot of the people getting infected were young, and their mortality rate was low. However, as the wave has progressed, while the rate of infection has declined, if the young people are bringing the infection home to their parents and older relatives, the average age of infected people can go up, and the mortality might rise even as infections decline.
BC