Trump outperforming in counties with high Covid-19 death rates - Printable Version
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RE: Trump outperforming in counties with high Covid-19 death rates - Leftcoast - 11-05-2020
I suspect 538 and similar will be defend their models and claim almost all of the "missed" states were within their expected polling error. They can also point to the high number of 1st time voters overwhelming their "expected voter" model.
In their more introspective moments they'll need to admit that the last 3-4 times polling significantly missed it was always in one direction. The misses have not been randomly distributed and polls tend to undercount rural, conservative Republicans. Maybe they don't answer the phone, maybe they are hard to find for another reason but they are consistently undercounted. Time to fine-tune the sample method rather than just complain you are being unfairly blamed for your misses.
RE: Trump outperforming in counties with high Covid-19 death rates - BostonCard - 11-05-2020
Polling in 2012 missed in the opposite direction (Obama overperformed his polls). Since it wasn't material to the outcome, nobody cared. Democrats underperformed the polls in both 2004 and 2008, but it was a 1 point miss, and Gore actually did slightly better than his polling in 2000, but it was not enough to win the general.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
It will be interesting to see what the final margins are. Biden is currently leading by 2.7 points, which would be significantly worse than polls, but a lot of the outstanding vote comes from very blue areas. For example, about 26% of the vote has not been reported in California, and that is going about 2:1 for Biden. We will see what things look like when all is said and done.
BC
RE: Trump outperforming in counties with high Covid-19 death rates - Genuine Realist - 11-07-2020
(11-05-2020, 03:24 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Polling in 2012 missed in the opposite direction (Obama overperformed his polls). Since it wasn't material to the outcome, nobody cared. Democrats underperformed the polls in both 2004 and 2008, but it was a 1 point miss, and Gore actually did slightly better than his polling in 2000, but it was not enough to win the general.The polls have too binary a character. I don't think the American people are happy with the descent into rancid ideology, and the election showed it.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
It will be interesting to see what the final margins are. Biden is currently leading by 2.7 points, which would be significantly worse than polls, but a lot of the outstanding vote comes from very blue areas. For example, about 26% of the vote has not been reported in California, and that is going about 2:1 for Biden. We will see what things look like when all is said and done.
BC
This was a really good election from my point of view, almost perfect if one Georgia Senate rate goes GOP. (I regret the loss of John James from Michigan. The nation needs more African-American Republicans, and the guy who won is complete non-entity.
Relative to Covid, I don't expect any magic answers from Biden. I hope the nation doesn't. I do expect a thousand percent uptick in mora; leadership.