Following the Science - Printable Version

Following the Science - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: Following the Science (/thread-20960.html)

Pages: 1 2

RE: Following the Science - Mick - 11-29-2020

(11-28-2020, 10:23 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Also, in general, it's a lot better to focus on freeing yourself from your own illusions than concentrate too much on someone else's.

There's an idea for some tech entrepreneur. Create a site which invites visitors to anonymously opine as to another individual's shortcomings, illusions, misdeeds, etc.

RE: Following the Science - JustAnotherFan - 11-29-2020

Just saw this today and thought it was relevant to some of the people who want to give credit to the Republican Party for not being filled with a bunch of people holding onto the illusion that Trump somehow didn't get trounced in the election:

"As of Nov. 19, 62% of Trump voters did not accept the results showing that Biden won, despite there being no evidence of widespread illegal voting or fraud. And 38% said they would support Trump refusing to give up power and remain in the White House — something that Republicans and Democrats alike have warned is dangerous for American democracy." https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-2024-most-republican-voters-want-to-see-donald-trump-run-for-president-again-2020-11-24

How does this play out for the future? I don't know. Trump's coup aspirations were dashed by Republicans who weren't willing to take over capitol buildings. But do they place blame on Biden for the Covid-19 death wave that is about to come down on America, and then take credit for the end of the pandemic because, "see, after Biden stole the election it magically went away," knowing that people are not going to be able to distinguish December 2020 with December 2021? Meanwhile, they'll continue to try to convince Americans that they are worse off under Biden than they were under Trump by pushing fantastic tales of full employment and a government that left them alone, whereas those dastardly leftists ruined cities by revolting against cops killing people in the streets. I don't think the Republican party base becomes more grounded over the next four years. I think it continues to be a sh__show.

RE: Following the Science - Goose - 11-29-2020

(11-28-2020, 09:04 AM)DocSavage87 Wrote:
(11-27-2020, 09:14 PM)Goose Wrote:

As you probably have already noted, I do believe that MOST Trump voters believe that the election was honest. The polls from Nov 7 to Nov 17 were taken before the court rulings and state election certifications etc. ... Yes, I believe that right now most (not all) Trump supporters believe the election was fair and that number is growing with each passing day.

So there was a poll a few weeks ago that you now dismiss and claim that not only have the numbers flipped in terms of the % of his supporters who believe him, but you believe they believe him less every day. I think you are simply postulating based on how you feel and not what we see. You can claim Twitter, Fox, OAN, Newsmax, etc, are all not representative. That's your opinion. I think you are wrong. You have no data to back you up. I at least have some data that show recently, I was most certainly correct. And that's before the echo chamber has plenty of chance to reinforce the lies.

OK, Take a look at
https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/

I think it illustrates my point. This poll is dated November 23. In this poll, 62% of Republicans say the 2020 election was not free and fair. This is lower than the polls from previous weeks, as I anticipated. So there is some data to back up the idea the Republicans are slowly adjusting to reality.
More importantly, we know that the Trumpustani tend to answer the polls based on how it will be perceived, not necessarily as they really believe. We know this because Trump did much better that the polls predicted in the election. Consider that Trump has yet to concede and has claimed he will prove massive fraud. Elections are also emotional things. If a Trump supporter tells a pollster he agrees that the election was free and fair, he is a "traitor" in his own eyes. He isn't going to do that, even if he believes it is so. Quoting from the same poll:

Quote:18 percent of Republican voters say Trump should concede the election right away, 46 percent say he should concede eventually if he is unable to back up his claims of widespread fraud and 28 percent say he should not concede no matter what.

That 28% is the "real" number of "die hard" Trump supporters. The rest already have gotten over it or are getting over it. Probably some of the 28% will too after the Electoral College meets etc. The reason why concession statements are important is the candidate is telling his supporters that it is alright to accept the fact that they have lost. The fact Trump hasn't issued one is a real problem. It is also probable he never will do so. It is making it lots harder for people to "stand down". Eventually, the vast majority will anyway, but it will take a while. Just another demonstration of who Trump is, unfortunately. Note also that on November 19, the similar number in another poll was 38%.

The last "take away" from the poll is IMHO very telling:

Quote:Overall trust in elections has plummeted among Republicans: Prior to the election, 66 percent of GOP voters said they had at least some trust in the U.S. election system. In the latest poll, that dropped to 37 percent. Democratic trust, meanwhile, jumped from 63 percent to 80 percent.

The side that won has a vested emotional interest in the elections being fair. Their good result is valid only if that is the case. Therefore, the poll numbers rise 17% among them. OTOH, the side that lost really doesn't like the result, and has an emotional interest in the idea "we were robbed". Therefore the poll numbers drop 29%. Really no new data regarding election fairness, only who won. Similar to the number of "Old Blues" that are probably saying today there was no holding on the interception and the refs are incompetent. Same dynamic. I expect in four years the numbers will be back pretty much to where they were before this election. If you want to worry about something, worry about the fact that before the election 34% of the Republicans and 37% of the Democrats DIDN'T have some trust in the election results. Seems alarmingly high to me. Also, I wonder if the 37 vs 34 is "hysteresis" from the 2016 election (and it will be reversed in 2024) or is it something else.

RE: Following the Science - oldalum - 11-29-2020

(11-29-2020, 11:53 AM)Goose Wrote: we know that the Trumpustani tend to answer the polls based on how it will be perceived, not necessarily as they really believe. We know this because Trump did much better that the polls predicted in the election.

My take on the early polling postmortems is that this was not an important factor this time (not even clear it was important in 2016, maybe just a pop explanation); the bigger (and more troubling for the future of polling) problem is that more people, especially Trump supporters, did not answer the phone when pollsters call, and the adjustments made to the pollsters' models based on 2016 did not adequately anticipate or compensate for this. More definitive analysis should be forthcoming in the next few months. See., e.g.:

NY Times polling expert on what went wrong (again)

Also the Nov 10 NY Times "Daily" podcast with this same expert, which I found informative.

RE: Following the Science - oregontim - 11-29-2020

(11-28-2020, 10:23 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Also, in general, it's a lot better to focus on freeing yourself from your own illusions than concentrate too much on someone else's.

That's really well said. +1 for that sentence.

RE: Following the Science - DocSavage87 - 11-29-2020

(11-29-2020, 11:53 AM)Goose Wrote:
(11-28-2020, 09:04 AM)DocSavage87 Wrote:
(11-27-2020, 09:14 PM)Goose Wrote:
As you probably have already noted, I do believe that MOST Trump voters believe that the election was honest. The polls from Nov 7 to Nov 17 were taken before the court rulings and state election certifications etc. ... Yes, I believe that right now most (not all) Trump supporters believe the election was fair and that number is growing with each passing day.

So there was a poll a few weeks ago that you now dismiss and claim that not only have the numbers flipped in terms of the % of his supporters who believe him, but you believe they believe him less every day. I think you are simply postulating based on how you feel and not what we see. You can claim Twitter, Fox, OAN, Newsmax, etc, are all not representative. That's your opinion. I think you are wrong. You have no data to back you up. I at least have some data that show recently, I was most certainly correct. And that's before the echo chamber has plenty of chance to reinforce the lies.

OK, Take a look at
https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/

I think it illustrates my point.

I think it illustrates the mental gymnastics and selective data interpretation people do to support their own conclusions.

First, the one thing we know about the polls are that they fail to capture some % of Trump supporters because they simply don't want anything to do with them. These supporters are more likely QAnon / deep state believers who hang on Trump's every word and are fact-free. So the polls are likely overestimating the "reasonable" Trump supporters.

Second, you selectively posted portions from the poll and not the damning last line of their first conclusion:

Quote:Sixty-three percent of Republicans say the 2020 election was not free and fair: 40 percent of Republicans say it “definitely” was not free and fair, and another 23 percent say it “probably” was not. That’s nearly twice the share of Republicans who said the race would not be free and fair just before the election.

Despite the fact that we had record turnout and Trump's own government is saying this was the most secure election we've ever had, Trump already losing dozen of court cases, and even Fox calling into question the fraud "evidence", twice the Republicans think it's corrupt compared to pre-election sentiment.

Third, this is yet more data refuting your main point that "I believe that right now most (not all) Trump supporters believe the election was fair."

Fourth, you now assume that because "46 percent say he should concede eventually if he is unable to back up his claims of widespread fraud", this means the majority will somehow accept the election was fair. I think it's extremely naive to think "unable to back up his claims" means to them what it means to rational people. After all, even years after Obama released his birth certificate up to 1/3 of Americans thought he still wasn't born in the US. The Trump supporters in that category may very well want to sound reasonable, but when able to talk a good conspiracy theory why their "evidence" of fraud wasn't accepted by MSM and the deep state, they will stick with the Trump narrative.

Finally, the whole point of the election fraud discussion is how Trump supporters and therefore a decent % of the US will take Trump's word over cold facts. Tens of millions of Americans and therefore the lifestyle of their dependents will accept Trump's narratives on COVID-19 and mitigation factors. The election fraud polls strengthen that argument.

(11-29-2020, 11:53 AM)Goose Wrote: The last "take away" from the poll is IMHO very telling:

Quote:Overall trust in elections has plummeted among Republicans: Prior to the election, 66 percent of GOP voters said they had at least some trust in the U.S. election system. In the latest poll, that dropped to 37 percent. Democratic trust, meanwhile, jumped from 63 percent to 80 percent.
The side that won has a vested emotional interest in the elections being fair. Their good result is valid only if that is the case. Therefore, the poll numbers rise 17% among them. OTOH, the side that lost really doesn't like the result, and has an emotional interest in the idea "we were robbed". Therefore the poll numbers drop 29%.

Your interpretation of this data is interesting and I think really shows your bias. Every bit of evidence we have is that the elections were run well, had record turnout despite this pandemic, and that there's no evidence of widespread fraud. Despite this, the most influential and powerful person in our country, POTUS, enabled by very high ranking officials, did his best Putin and mercilessly attacked the counting of votes and tried to persuade GOP election officials to not do their duty by law. Despite this incredible stress test, we may get through it with the actual winner being inaugurated. That's a big win for the resiliency of the election system that has nothing to do with "vested emotional interest". It follows the facts that outright efforts to tamper with the election seems to have failed. However, many could say that we came close save for a relatively small number of people who did the right thing regardless of the cost to their family and future.

RE: Following the Science - DocSavage87 - 11-29-2020

(11-29-2020, 12:32 PM)oregontim Wrote:
(11-28-2020, 10:23 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Also, in general, it's a lot better to focus on freeing yourself from your own illusions than concentrate too much on someone else's.

That's really well said. +1 for that sentence.

I found it to be incredibly hypocritical coming from Genuine Fantasist.

RE: Following the Science - oregontim - 11-29-2020

(11-29-2020, 01:12 PM)DocSavage87 Wrote:
(11-29-2020, 12:32 PM)oregontim Wrote:
(11-28-2020, 10:23 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Also, in general, it's a lot better to focus on freeing yourself from your own illusions than concentrate too much on someone else's.

That's really well said. +1 for that sentence.

I found it to be incredibly hypocritical coming from Genuine Fantasist.

Come on there Doc, you add a lot of good posts here. Just sayin' so we keep all this civil. Besides which, I'd guess from your posts that you agree with the sentiment expressed, even if you generally disagree with its author. Art from artist, and all that? Maybe delete this one? Be more Doc less Savage?

RE: Following the Science - DocSavage87 - 11-29-2020

(11-29-2020, 04:09 PM)oregontim Wrote:
(11-29-2020, 01:12 PM)DocSavage87 Wrote:
(11-29-2020, 12:32 PM)oregontim Wrote:
(11-28-2020, 10:23 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: Also, in general, it's a lot better to focus on freeing yourself from your own illusions than concentrate too much on someone else's.

That's really well said. +1 for that sentence.

I found it to be incredibly hypocritical coming from Genuine Fantasist.

Come on there Doc, you add a lot of good posts here. Just sayin' so we keep all this civil. Besides which, I'd guess from your posts that you agree with the sentiment expressed, even if you generally disagree with its author. Art from artist, and all that? Maybe delete this one? Be more Doc less Savage?

Not sure where I crossed the line of civility as opposed to being truthful. He takes a pen name "Genuine Realist" which I suppose means that those who don't agree with his views aren't grounded in the real world? Then he spouts all kinds of stuff that is verifiably incorrect, yet does his best virtue signaling by saying "it's a lot better to focus on freeing yourself from your own illusions" and certainly doesn't seem directed at himself. He's saying others have illusions and should be listening to him, the Genuine Realist. I wouldn't have even commented because I have him on ignore, but the forum is broken so quotes and even the thread review when doing replies show everyone's comments.