Evidence of spread from sports? - Printable Version
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RE: lex24 - Goose - 11-28-2020
(11-28-2020, 07:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Maybe we will get the pandemic under control without further lockdowns, or maybe we will just give up, but so long as we are trying to limit the spread long enough that we can engage in a large scale vaccination effort, I suggest we prioritize the things that are most important. If you think sports meet that criteria, you are certainly entitled to that opinion, but I suspect a lot of people think it’s misguided.We should just do the full SIP now and be done with it. That is where we are going anyway, probably inexorably at this point. That is what Italy finally had to do in their "red" tier (same as our purple). IMHO, too late for half (or even 15/16) measures.
BC
RE: lex24 - BostonCard - 11-28-2020
(11-28-2020, 09:31 PM)Goose Wrote:(11-28-2020, 07:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Maybe we will get the pandemic under control without further lockdowns, or maybe we will just give up, but so long as we are trying to limit the spread long enough that we can engage in a large scale vaccination effort, I suggest we prioritize the things that are most important. If you think sports meet that criteria, you are certainly entitled to that opinion, but I suspect a lot of people think it’s misguided.We should just do the full SIP now and be done with it. That is where we are going anyway, probably inexorably at this point. That is what Italy finally had to do in their "red" tier (same as our purple). IMHO, too late for half (or even 15/16) measures.
BC
Sadly you are probably right. Unfortunately, we still haven’t seen the effect of the last week of exponential growth, so unless something unexpected happened (which, to be fair, the virus is weird and I wouldn’t claim anything with certainty), case counts will continue climbing. Under the best circumstances, a combination of recognition of the growing risk and restrictions from above will drive R to less than 1 and cases will start declining. Under the worst, a combination of half-measures, pandemic fatigue, and a desire for normalcy will mean case counts will continue to rise even after the current measures are enacted. And then what? Brace for the worst and hope it eventually subsides on its own without overwhelming our healthcare system? Reluctantly enter a renewed lockdown? I do not envy the position our local leaders are in.
I don’t claim that a renewed lockdown is the only option, but I do think that if you are going to implement it, the best time is earlier rather than later, since the longer you wait, the longer it will take for case counts to come down to whatever level is manageable. In the first wave, California (and especially Northern California) acted early and decisively and it probably spared us a NY like outbreak. The desire to avoid a lockdown is perfectly understandable, but probably misguided in the long run.
BC
RE: lex24 - teejers1 - 11-28-2020
(11-28-2020, 05:34 PM)oregontim Wrote: For that matter, if the news is that one tournament spread Covid, to add in that 250 others didn't, that would be agenda driven. And — much worse — boring.
And therein lies the fundamental problem here.
Wow!
RE: lex24 - Mick - 11-29-2020
(11-28-2020, 01:26 PM)Farm93 Wrote:(11-28-2020, 02:29 AM)oregontim Wrote:Drove my car to the store today and I didn't crash, the airbags didn't explode. Why didn't the news cover it. :((11-27-2020, 11:09 AM)lex24 Wrote: One tournament. This is one of the things that drives me crazy. There has been an awful lot of sporting events played and safely. But they find one instance and that gets the publicity. I say that while at the same time believing that these tournaments should not be taking place.
That’s a textbook definition of news. A tournament linked to multiple Covid cases is news. All those other tournaments not linked to Covid cases are not news. Complaining about that is like complaining about media covering the hurricane instead of all those places that had nice weather; or the earthquake instead of all those places that didn’t have a quake.
You are objecting here to the essence of news.
Why are they always covering car crashes and talking about exploding airbags. Geez.
FWIW - I don't really think the sports are the problem. It is everything that goes with playing sports.
Look at club sports going out of state.
Those California club teams playing sports in AZ, for example.
The games are probably fine. However those clubs need families to drive or fly there, then stay in hotels, eat in restaurants and sit on the touchline together for hours with other families from other teams. That's might be good for local businesses beyond the host club, but each of those activities has a risk of COVID spread. Then all of those folks head back home and spread whatever was happening in those AZ communities or the different families of the various club teams back to the nice CA families that didn't put their kids in out-of-state club sports.
The shorthand then would become that the club teams are bringing COVID back to CA. That doesn't necessarily mean it was the games that were the problem.
The child that stayed at home and practiced soccer dribbling by themselves on an empty field, would not be newsworthy. Though if anyone wants to make the lack of COVID by two or three kids dribbling soccer balls in their neighborhood into a story they certainly can launch their own Youtube page and hope for views.
Sounds about right. My kids played in Atlanta, Minneapolis, Austin, Salt Lake City, Phoenix...basically anywhere there was a $100 hotel room during the summer. And the interactions were substantial, generally unsupervised (from an infectious disease point of view) and involved all ages and families.