WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - Printable Version

WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - Printable Version

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RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - jonnyss - 03-10-2021

(03-10-2021, 06:14 PM)81alum Wrote:
(03-10-2021, 04:26 PM)Griffins78 Wrote: I don't think any of those teams are better than last year's Oregon Ducks and Paige Bueckers is not as good as Sabrina Ionescu.
Well....that may be true, but then again, we did not do well against last year's Oregon Ducks. Not at all well.

i think/hope anna can defend bueckers more easily than ionescu. ionescu is bigger and stronger than bueckers, who seems to me more like aari mcdonald. also, anna is better this year. hopefully we'll get to find out in the championship game.

defending both bueckers and fudd next year - without anna - may be hard.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - 81alum - 03-10-2021

I agree that I would like to avoid playing Dijonai. She is Baylor's 2nd leading scorer this year at 13 ppg even though she doesn't start--won 6th player and "newcomer of the year" awards from her league. And something would just not be right to play against her. I have always been grateful that we avoided playing against Lili Thompson.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - BosCard - 03-10-2021

(03-10-2021, 08:08 PM)jonnyss Wrote:
(03-10-2021, 06:14 PM)81alum Wrote:
(03-10-2021, 04:26 PM)Griffins78 Wrote: I don't think any of those teams are better than last year's Oregon Ducks and Paige Bueckers is not as good as Sabrina Ionescu.
Well....that may be true, but then again, we did not do well against last year's Oregon Ducks. Not at all well.

i think/hope anna can defend bueckers more easily than ionescu. ionescu is bigger and stronger than bueckers, who seems to me more like aari mcdonald. also, anna is better this year. hopefully we'll get to find out in the championship game.

defending both bueckers and fudd next year - without anna - may be hard.

Yes will be hard for any team to stop that combo. But luckily we have 2 Hulls to try and do so if we play them next year.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - chimera - 03-10-2021

(03-10-2021, 03:24 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: Chimera, based on that analysis, looking at other teams, here are what challenges they may present (I haven't really watched their games so I am not sure how their forwards/centers score, whether back to the basket post ups or drives to the rim):

N.C. State (Their center and leading scorer is Elissa Cunane, who is 6'5" and is averaging 16.8 ppg on 57%, and their next two leading scorers Brown-Turner and Jones are each hitting at least 38% from 3-point range and they have 2 other players who play notable minutes who are also hitting 34% or better from long range)

Texas A&M (Their center is Ciera Johnson, who is 6'4" and their fourth leading scorer (though their top five scorers' averages are within 3 points of each other) at 12.3 ppg and 54%, Destiny Pitts is their most prolific 3-point shooter at 47% and has attempted 40 more long range shots than the next player; they have one more shooter hitting 44% of her 3-point shots and another one at 32%)

Louisville (They have two forwards 6'3" and 6'5" who are both shooting 59% from the floor and averaging 10.7 ppg and 8.3 ppg respectively; arguably their best 3 players (and leading scorers) are three guards: Dana Evans, Kianna Smith (Cal transfer) and freshman Hailey Van Lith and they all shoot 35% or better from long range)

Baylor (Their main center is Queen Egbo at 6'3" averaging 11.3 ppg at a 51% clip, they have a taller center in freshman Hannah Gusters who's 6'5", she's played in every game but averaging only 11 mins/game, so she's like Belibi or Prechtel coming in off the bench but playing decent minutes. Gusters is averaging 6 ppg, but at a very efficient 66% rate. Their best players are NaLyssa Smith, a 6'2" forward who draws a lot of fouls (127 FT attempts) and Carrington, who comes off the bench but is often one of their leading scorers. DiJonai also takes the most 3-point shots on their team (40 more than the next closest) and nails 32% of them. Their best 3-point shooters Moon Ursin and Sarah Andrews are making them at a 35% rate)

UConn (Olivia Nelson-Ododa is 6'5" averaging 12.5 ppg and shooting 58% and Aaliyah Edwards at 6'3" is even more efficient, a Hebard-like 68% from the floor, but Paige Bueckers is their primary scorer. As a freshman, she's already averaging 19.7 ppg and hitting 54% of her shots, including 47% from long range, but Christyn Williams, Evina Westbrook and Nika Muhl all can't be left alone beyond the arc either, all of them with a 31% or better conversion rate from 3-point land)

Maryland (The Terrapins don't seem to have a true center like other teams; their tallest players are 6'3". I don't think the strategy of doubling up on someone and leaving someone else more open will work with them however, as they have six players who average double digits in scoring. Their best long-range shooter demands attention - Katie Benzan, she's hitting 52% of her 3-pointers. Two of their other starters also are prolific three pointer shooters, Diamond Miller and Chloe Bibby, both of whom are shooting 34% from long range. Their Achilles heel is that their defense is weaker than the other contenders; they might score a lot, but they can also give up a lot of points too. They've surrendered 80 or more points in 8 of their games including in their 2 losses)

South Carolina (Their center is Aliyah Boston, who is 6'5", averaging 13 ppg on 49% shooting; she also has 70 blocks on the season. Henderson and Cooke are their main 3 pointer shooters (43% and 37% respectively), but Beal also makes 30% of hers)

Interesting stuff, thx for putting that together. I am now scared of all those teams. OK, not so much, but they do seem impressive offensively. I haven't seen much of any of them and nothing of a few of them, so I don't know what to think except that the job the coaches do in scouting and prepping the team might be key. Teams don't know each other as well this year, don't have common opponents where it may be easier to evaluate an opponent since you have a team you know as a metric. If scouting is a wee bit harder than usual and our coaches outdo the other team, that is a definite edge. I am just going to wait for the bracket, not think too much about who I'd least want to play, and see what happens.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - magnus - 03-11-2021

(03-10-2021, 03:24 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: Chimera, based on that analysis, looking at other teams, here are what challenges they may present (I haven't really watched their games so I am not sure how their forwards/centers score, whether back to the basket post ups or drives to the rim):

N.C. State (Their center and leading scorer is Elissa Cunane, who is 6'5" and is averaging 16.8 ppg on 57%, and their next two leading scorers Brown-Turner and Jones are each hitting at least 38% from 3-point range and they have 2 other players who play notable minutes who are also hitting 34% or better from long range)

Texas A&M (Their center is Ciera Johnson, who is 6'4" and their fourth leading scorer (though their top five scorers' averages are within 3 points of each other) at 12.3 ppg and 54%, Destiny Pitts is their most prolific 3-point shooter at 47% and has attempted 40 more long range shots than the next player; they have one more shooter hitting 44% of her 3-point shots and another one at 32%)

Louisville (They have two forwards 6'3" and 6'5" who are both shooting 59% from the floor and averaging 10.7 ppg and 8.3 ppg respectively; arguably their best 3 players (and leading scorers) are three guards: Dana Evans, Kianna Smith (Cal transfer) and freshman Hailey Van Lith and they all shoot 35% or better from long range)

Baylor (Their main center is Queen Egbo at 6'3" averaging 11.3 ppg at a 51% clip, they have a taller center in freshman Hannah Gusters who's 6'5", she's played in every game but averaging only 11 mins/game, so she's like Belibi or Prechtel coming in off the bench but playing decent minutes. Gusters is averaging 6 ppg, but at a very efficient 66% rate. Their best players are NaLyssa Smith, a 6'2" forward who draws a lot of fouls (127 FT attempts) and Carrington, who comes off the bench but is often one of their leading scorers. DiJonai also takes the most 3-point shots on their team (40 more than the next closest) and nails 32% of them. Their best 3-point shooters Moon Ursin and Sarah Andrews are making them at a 35% rate)

UConn (Olivia Nelson-Ododa is 6'5" averaging 12.5 ppg and shooting 58% and Aaliyah Edwards at 6'3" is even more efficient, a Hebard-like 68% from the floor, but Paige Bueckers is their primary scorer. As a freshman, she's already averaging 19.7 ppg and hitting 54% of her shots, including 47% from long range, but Christyn Williams, Evina Westbrook and Nika Muhl all can't be left alone beyond the arc either, all of them with a 31% or better conversion rate from 3-point land)

Maryland (The Terrapins don't seem to have a true center like other teams; their tallest players are 6'3". I don't think the strategy of doubling up on someone and leaving someone else more open will work with them however, as they have six players who average double digits in scoring. Their best long-range shooter demands attention - Katie Benzan, she's hitting 52% of her 3-pointers. Two of their other starters also are prolific three pointer shooters, Diamond Miller and Chloe Bibby, both of whom are shooting 34% from long range. Their Achilles heel is that their defense is weaker than the other contenders; they might score a lot, but they can also give up a lot of points too. They've surrendered 80 or more points in 8 of their games including in their 2 losses)

South Carolina (Their center is Aliyah Boston, who is 6'5", averaging 13 ppg on 49% shooting; she also has 70 blocks on the season. Henderson and Cooke are their main 3 pointer shooters (43% and 37% respectively), but Beal also makes 30% of hers)

What would the scouting report be on our team?

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - SControl - 03-11-2021

(03-09-2021, 09:09 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote: I didn't have too much time today, but I created a table with the most obvious stats for the 7 teams 81alum mentioned and I included our figures for comparison (the stats are through March 8th and the rankings are in parentheses):

According to 81alum's second point, if we prefer to play a team with an elite offense and an average defense, Maryland would actually be a team we want in our bracket rather than one to avoid. The Terrapins have a top shelf offense, 1st in points per game and top 5 in FG% and 3P%, but their defense is noticeably worse than the other teams in the table.

Statistically, UConn and Baylor are the teams we should avoid, since they look good on both offense and defense.

However, this is only a quantitative analysis and doesn't provide any context behind the numbers.

Great thread, 81alum, and very insightful contributions, TheFarm07!

Since I watch a good amount of college WBB, here are a couple of thoughts on the team as well as possible (top) opponents:

Stanford

The 2 week+ break before the start of the tournament will be a bigger advantage than we may initially think. Not only does the team get to rest, but with final regular season games and conference tournaments coming after our final contest, our team has a chance to scout the competition and most importantly, allow our lead magician to do what she does best.
We are a solid 7-9 deep (Williams, Wilson, Jones, Le.Hull, Brink, La.Hull, Jump, Prechtel/Belibi) with potential for more.
Tournament Kiana seems to have awakened. Could not be more excited to lean on her and Anna's senior leadership, in Kiana's hometown.
If teams are scouting our weaknesses, I would have to +1 a few notes about Brink being foul-prone as well as the challenges of Prechtel and Belibi, depending on the match ups. With the Bostons, Cunanes, bigs from Louisville, UConn, & Baylor out there, our defense will have to find a way to limit the posts of other top teams while finding ways to avoid scoring droughts.
Hate to play devils advocate, but am I the only one a little concerned about Haley's shooting? She is 1-9 (11%) from 3pt for the season, and as of late has seemed to have slow starts/become hesitant to shoot a jumper. I have no doubt that teams will look to expose this and I would hate to see a perfect storm of a bad shooting night and multiple early fouls from Brink against a physical team.

Competition
If the current Bracketology seedings stand and this magic season goes as planned with Stanford as the overall #1 seed, we are projected to meet with Kentucky in the S16, Louisville in the E8, either S.Carolina/NC State in the F4, and UConn/Baylor/Texas A&M or Maryland for the title.

Kentucky: This would be a good test but they are heavily reliant on their superstar Rhyne Howard (20.7ppg). However, they are battle tested coming from the SEC.
Louisville: Not sure I'd go as far to say that I would much rather play them vs Georgia, who is peaking at the right time and still gives me nightmares after what happened in 2013. Louisville actually scares me. They looked really, really good early on, and despite dropping their two games vs NC State, they are capable of taking down any team in the tournament. They have a lot of offensive weapons at the guard position, play pesky, physical defense, and Walz is known to come up with schemes during big games (they beat Oregon last season after limiting Ionescu to 6-20 shooting and 1-9 from 3pt; beat UConn as recent as early 2019; and had the goliath-slaying win vs Baylor in 2012).
South Carolina: similar to us, they are another talent-rich team who have been exposed to more competition having played NC State, UConn, and multiple formidable opponents in the deep SEC. Boston is POY-caliber, and they have all the pieces to win it all this season. They are a somewhat young core (start 3 sophs, and a new starter in Henderson) and if it's a shoot out with multiple fouls being called, I like our chances. They only shoot 33% from beyond the arc and really only have two notable long range shooters (Cooke and Henderson). Staley is one of the best coaches in the game, and although I would rather play NC State, I'd love to see Tara go head to head with a healthy and just as talented team to get some payback after 2016.
NC State: 6-5 Cunane is the real deal, and the Wolfpack practically start 3 seniors and 1 grad-transfer. I think a combo of Brink, Prechtel, and Belibi can slow down their bigs and help us get back to the championship game.
Texas A&M: very good team, despite the loss in the SEC finals. They have a legendary coach, play very disciplined, team ball (now that Carter has moved on), and play above their rankings entering the tournament as a #1 seed despite being #13 in the preseason. Another scrappy, proven team coming from the SEC.
Maryland: Despite losing most of their scoring from last season, Brenda Frese has answered any doubts. They are a high-octane bunch, scoring 90+ ppg, shooting almost 50%, and rank in the top 10 in scoring margin. I believe their super stud freshmen, Angel Reese, is also back from injury.
Baylor: technically the reigning champs. Mulkey knows how to win and beat anyone including any of the top teams out there. However, I question their squad with no dominant post as they have had in the last decade or so. However they make up this up with the ultra athleticism of Smith (6-2), Richard (6-2), and Carrington (5-11). As projected, I would love to see them meet UConn in the E8.
Last, but certainly not least, UConn: yeah they haven't gotten past the F4 since Stewart (finally) graduated in 2016 but as always, they have Geno, multiple #1 ranked players coming out of HS (Bueckers, Williams, and technically Westbrook since the actual top ranked player graduated early last season), and an embarrassment of HS AAs/top international talent. They have been cursed in the F4 round but are are 11-0 going into the final game. The aforementioned Bueckers is another generational talent in the making, but Williams/Westbrook are streaky shooters, Nelson-Ododa always seems to fade against top competition, and turnovers seem to be a thing with the recent Husky squads. The rest of their freshmen class are probably playing better than Oregon's top ranked rookie class coming out of HS. They play fast, uber-efficient, high IQ offense and have defense specialists in Griffin. Despite all of this, this is probably our best chance to snag a championship away from Geno, since they have another #1 player in Azzi (Fudd) coming in next season to team up with PB.

Seems to be shaping up to be a highly anticipated big dance this season with many contenders that have the chance to get crowned on April 4. As TV has expressed on multiple occasions, I really want to see this team go all the way and have all their hard work and sacrifice pay off with #3 for the program. Let the games begin and GO CARDs!!!

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - qwerty49 - 03-11-2021

(03-11-2021, 01:13 AM)magnus Wrote: What would the scouting report be on our team?

I would guess the scouting report on us reflects the main “worries” we’ve articulated here, ie

On offense, work the ball into the post, and also drive on Brink whenever possible to try to get her in foul trouble. Once she goes to the bench, continue pounding the paint as the other Stanford posts are not as aggressive. Slow the game down so that Stanford’s depth will not be a big factor.

On D, start off in a zone and test Stanford’s outside shooting. Collapse on Jones to try to force turnovers. Double Williams just enough to force Wilson and the Hulls to take most of the threes.

I don’t think it’s any secret that Brink in foul trouble or our outside shooting being off would make it a tough time for us. But at the same time, I’m sure Tara knows this and will prepare accordingly. There’s probably a bit of “I know that you know that I know, etc” going on.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - magnus - 03-11-2021

Sorry, qwerty, i shouldn't have said scouting report, I meant TheFarm07's table summary/breakdown that he did for potential opponents but applied to us.

I do agree with your post though. Take away Brink and our inside game becomes nondescript.
If our outside shooting also goes cold, we'll be in trouble... unless our defense can generate enough turns/fast breaks to weather any cold shooting stretches.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - WBB fan - 03-11-2021

(03-10-2021, 07:55 PM)mbdude Wrote: Maryland is on FS1 at 8am pst tomorrow (Thursday) big 10 tomorrow

Just checked -- game is not on FS1, but if you have Comcast, you can see it on FS2, which is channel 410 (not HD)

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - Erika - 03-11-2021

(03-11-2021, 08:58 AM)WBB fan Wrote:
(03-10-2021, 07:55 PM)mbdude Wrote: Maryland is on FS1 at 8am pst tomorrow (Thursday) big 10 tomorrow

Just checked -- game is not on FS1, but if you have Comcast, you can see it on FS2, which is channel 410 (not HD)

Thanks good game! 47-48 MD late in the 3rd.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - WBB fan - 03-11-2021

(03-11-2021, 10:08 AM)Erika Wrote:
(03-11-2021, 08:58 AM)WBB fan Wrote:
(03-10-2021, 07:55 PM)mbdude Wrote: Maryland is on FS1 at 8am pst tomorrow (Thursday) big 10 tomorrow

Just checked -- game is not on FS1, but if you have Comcast, you can see it on FS2, which is channel 410 (not HD)

Thanks good game! 47-48 MD late in the 3rd.

Final -- 83-73 Maryland. Nebraska made a competitive game of it until late in the 4th quarter, but then just couldn't hold on.

RE: WBB: Stanford in the NCAAs - Baez87 - 03-11-2021

(03-11-2021, 11:32 AM)WBB fan Wrote:
(03-11-2021, 10:08 AM)Erika Wrote:
(03-11-2021, 08:58 AM)WBB fan Wrote:
(03-10-2021, 07:55 PM)mbdude Wrote: Maryland is on FS1 at 8am pst tomorrow (Thursday) big 10 tomorrow

Just checked -- game is not on FS1, but if you have Comcast, you can see it on FS2, which is channel 410 (not HD)

Thanks good game! 47-48 MD late in the 3rd.

Final -- 83-73 Maryland. Nebraska made a competitive game of it until late in the 4th quarter, but then just couldn't hold on.

True to form, Maryland gives up over 70 points to an unranked team; and the score wasn’t decided until the final minutes (the 10 point differential resulted from desperation fouling by Nebraska).