A 6-win team? - Printable Version

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RE: A 6-win team? - cardcrimson - 04-15-2021

(04-15-2021, 02:25 PM)Papa John Wrote:  Ask and ye shall receive, gailtate (from sports-reference.com)!

Past 25 seasons: 120 wins, 93 losses, 0 ties; winning pct = 56.3
Past 50 seasons: 215 wins, 184 losses, 4 ties; winning pct = 53.8

I counted a tie as 1/2 win.

Might be more interesting to look at decades since 1920:
1920s: 30-10-4; 72.7%
1930s: 28-24-6; 53.4%
1940s (no football 1943-45): 26-21-1; 55.2%
1950s: 29-31-4; 48.4%
1960s: 21-33-2; 39.3%
1970s: 46-22-2; 67.1%
1980s: 30-47-2; 39.2%
1990s: 42-38-0; 52.5%
2000s: 33-51-0; 39.3%
2010s: 66-25-0; 72.5%

Maybe it's because my freshman year at Stanford was 1980, but I still consider this the golden age of Stanford football in spite of the disaster of 2019.

Those appear to be conference records (only 8 or 9 games a season)

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RE: A 6-win team? - Papa John - 04-15-2021

Thanks cardcrimson! Right, I went with conference records because that seemed to be the best way to compare across seasons/decades and conference rankings are based on conference records. 

I'll let someone else figure out the overall records.

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RE: A 6-win team? - BostonCard - 04-15-2021

The 25-year overall record is similar to the 25-year conference record; see my post above yours.  The 50-year overall record record might be a bit better.

BC

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RE: A 6-win team? - CompSci87 - 04-15-2021

But of course we "belong" at whatever our best all time record was, or actually a bit better. Whoever was coach that year demonstrated it is possible, so it should be the minimum every year.

;-)

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RE: A 6-win team? - JohnR34231 - 04-16-2021

(04-15-2021, 06:52 PM)CompSci87 Wrote:  But of course we "belong" at whatever our best all time record was, or actually a bit better. Whoever was coach that year demonstrated it is possible, so it should be the minimum every year.

;-)

And of course any coach who can't accomplish that is incompetent and should be immediately dismissed. :)

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RE: A 6-win team? - winflop - 04-16-2021

(04-16-2021, 06:56 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:  

(04-15-2021, 06:52 PM)CompSci87 Wrote:  But of course we "belong" at whatever our best all time record was, or actually a bit better. Whoever was coach that year demonstrated it is possible, so it should be the minimum every year.

;-)

And of course any coach who can't accomplish that is incompetent and should be immediately dismissed. :)

Stanford's conference winning percentage in the last decade (2010-2019):
2010 - 89% above average
2011 - 89% above average
2012 - 89% above average
2013 - 78% above average
2014 - 55% below average
2015 - 89% above average
2016 - 67% below average
2017 - 78% above average
2018 - 66% below average
2019 - 33% below average

Three of the last four seasons have been below average (72.5%). This isn't about one season, it's about a troubling trend that is highly likely to persist into this year. I'd argue that the Golden Age was in the last decade, but it didn't last the entire decade.

The problem with playing that well over several seasons (2010-2015) sets an expectation level that it will continue. Right or wrong, that has been the bar. Whether you include the 2020 season or not, there's no doubt that there has been a substantial decline since our last Rose Bowl appearance.

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RE: A 6-win team? - martyup - 04-16-2021

(04-14-2021, 06:06 PM)gailtate Wrote:  Six wins assumes a clean bill of health for the entire roster, a stellar performance for a first-year QB and all cylinders firing on offense. PLUS an overachieving defense and good fortune at every turn. More realistic: 4-8. Stanford's elite status in football began and ended with the advent of Andrew Luck and the exit of Christian McCaffrey. A good run, yes, but a unique one in the modern history of Cardinal football. Stanford is back where it belongs. Deal with it.

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RE: A 6-win team? - lex24 - 04-16-2021

(04-14-2021, 06:06 PM)gailtate Wrote:  Six wins assumes a clean bill of health for the entire roster, a stellar performance for a first-year QB and all cylinders firing on offense. PLUS an overachieving defense and good fortune at every turn. More realistic: 4-8. Stanford's elite status in football began and ended with the advent of Andrew Luck and the exit of Christian McCaffrey. A good run, yes, but a unique one in the modern history of Cardinal football. Stanford is back where it belongs. Deal with it.

I think Stanford’s elite status began with a change in mentality and a commitment  to power football. That plus building a strong defense.  Complimentary football.  Run the ball and stop the run. Win up front.  They won 2 league championships after Luck.  And the mentality and philosophy was in place when they won the third with McCaffrey. Just look at the stats from 11-17. Compare to their record The better they ran (and the higher percentage of run vs pass) the better they did.  

I don’t know if they can get back to that formula.  To me it begins with a dominant o-line and defense.  The former is more easily acheived, recruiting wise, than the latter.

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RE: A 6-win team? - BostonCard - 04-16-2021

(04-16-2021, 07:08 AM)winflop Wrote:  The problem with playing that well over several seasons (2010-2015) sets an expectation level that it will continue. Right or wrong, that has been the bar. Whether you include the 2020 season or not, there's no doubt that there has been a substantial decline since our last Rose Bowl appearance.

Well, short of a national championship, there's not much room to go up from the Rose Bowl.

Like, if the women's basketball team gets to the Final Four next year and loses in the national semifinals, and the following year fails to make the final four, you could argue that it points to a "troubling trend"

BC

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RE: A 6-win team? - PVTree - 04-16-2021

To me, each sport has different yardsticks in order to be considered a successful season. If football ends up in the top 25, it was a good season. 

In WBB, a S16 is the minimum for it not to be considered a disappointing season. This year's team, it was raised to E8. 

MBB, currently, an NCAA bid is a successful season. No postseason of any kind is a disappointing season.

WVB, anything short of a E8 is a disappointing season.

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RE: A 6-win team? - martyup - 04-16-2021

"Winning less frequently makes the wins more enjoyable and the losses less traumatic."

  -- Random Stanford Fan

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As we saw with our WBB team, it is very stressful when you are expected to win.  Even though Stanford hadn't won a NC in almost 3 decades, the expectations this season were high.  It was fun and very satisfying in the end.

But, can you imagine being an Alabama football fan or a UCONN WBB fan?  Every season they are expected to win and they go bat guano crazy when they don't.  Personally, I can live with Stanford football only winning the Pac-12 three times a decade.

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RE: A 6-win team? - Papa John - 04-16-2021

(04-16-2021, 07:08 AM)winflop Wrote:  <snip>
Three of the last four seasons have been below average (72.5%). This isn't about one season, it's about a troubling trend that is highly likely to persist into this year. I'd argue that the Golden Age was in the last decade, but it didn't last the entire decade.

The problem with playing that well over several seasons (2010-2015) sets an expectation level that it will continue. Right or wrong, that has been the bar. Whether you include the 2020 season or not, there's no doubt that there has been a substantial decline since our last Rose Bowl appearance.

Stanford was 4-2 in 2020, which is obviously a decline over 8-1, but very good historically speaking. I don't expect Stanford to go to Rose Bowls 3 out of every 4 years or NY 6 bowls 5 out of every 6 years. It was never my expectation that such success would be sustainable, was it really yours?

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RE: A 6-win team? - winflop - 04-17-2021

(04-16-2021, 10:37 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(04-16-2021, 07:08 AM)winflop Wrote:  The problem with playing that well over several seasons (2010-2015) sets an expectation level that it will continue. Right or wrong, that has been the bar. Whether you include the 2020 season or not, there's no doubt that there has been a substantial decline since our last Rose Bowl appearance.

Well, short of a national championship, there's not much room to go up from the Rose Bowl.

Like, if the women's basketball team gets to the Final Four next year and loses in the national semifinals, and the following year fails to make the final four, you could argue that it points to a "troubling trend"

BC

That's not the bar BC and I think a bit disingenuous. This isn't a sample size of one compared to one other season. It's comparing the last four seasons to the average winning percentage across ten seasons. 7-2 or better was above average, 6-3 or worse was below average. Six seasons were above average, four seasons were below average with three of them occurring in the last four. That's not one season that doesn't match up to the previous one.

If you can't see that the program has fallen off since the 2015 season I can't help you.

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(04-16-2021, 03:21 PM)Papa John Wrote:  

(04-16-2021, 07:08 AM)winflop Wrote:  <snip>
Three of the last four seasons have been below average (72.5%). This isn't about one season, it's about a troubling trend that is highly likely to persist into this year. I'd argue that the Golden Age was in the last decade, but it didn't last the entire decade.

The problem with playing that well over several seasons (2010-2015) sets an expectation level that it will continue. Right or wrong, that has been the bar. Whether you include the 2020 season or not, there's no doubt that there has been a substantial decline since our last Rose Bowl appearance.

Stanford was 4-2 in 2020, which is obviously a decline over 8-1, but very good historically speaking. I don't expect Stanford to go to Rose Bowls 3 out of every 4 years or NY 6 bowls 5 out of every 6 years. It was never my expectation that such success would be sustainable, was it really yours?

I'm completely throwing out 2020.

No it wasn't. My expectations were that the team would contend for a division title more often than not, would win at least 7 conference games more often than not, and would go to an NY6 bowl game every few years. The first two have happened only once in the last four seasons and we haven't been close on the third one. I have no expectations that any of them will happen this year either given the roster turnover and decline in roster depth

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