Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials

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RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - ColoradoTree - 06-17-2021

Well, uh, we’ve had an upset. Simone Manuel only swam the 9th-fastest time in the semis of the 100 free, so she will not be defending her Olympic Gold in that race. Just stunning.

Which, in turn, is a blow to American prospects at the Olympics. Without her in top form, we’re unlikely to medal in that race.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - akiddoc - 06-17-2021

(06-17-2021, 06:04 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Well, uh, we’ve had an upset. Simone Manuel only swam the 9th-fastest time in the semis of the 100 free, so she will not be defending her Olympic Gold in that race. Just stunning.

Which, in turn, is a blow to American prospects at the Olympics. Without her in top form, we’re unlikely to medal in that race.

Had to take three weeks off from training in April. Reason not given. Slight injury or Covid I assume.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - ColoradoTree - 06-17-2021

At least the 200 fly went according to expectations, with Flickinger winning and Smith finishing second--that's a second individual event for the incoming freshman! She's likely to add a third, and she'll have her share of medley relays, too.

Also, gotta love Greg Meehan wearing all Stanford gear as he coaches the women's national team. Never ever stop recruiting, my man.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - mbdude - 06-18-2021

(06-17-2021, 07:16 PM)akiddoc Wrote:
(06-17-2021, 06:04 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Well, uh, we’ve had an upset. Simone Manuel only swam the 9th-fastest time in the semis of the 100 free, so she will not be defending her Olympic Gold in that race. Just stunning.

Which, in turn, is a blow to American prospects at the Olympics. Without her in top form, we’re unlikely to medal in that race.

Had to take three weeks off from training in April. Reason not given. Slight injury or Covid I assume.

Simone Manuel misses Olympic Trials final, details overtraining syndrome, depression (yahoo.com)

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - ColoradoTree - 06-18-2021

Ugh, that sounds awful. I hope she can take a well-deserved break soon.

The 100 free now looms as an event that could keep Brooke Forde out of the Olympics. Here are the 8 finalists and their qualification status

T1. Olivia Smoliga
T1. Natalie Hinds
3. Abbey Weitzeil
4. Catie Deloof
5. Linnea Mack
6. Allison Schmitt (2nd in 200 free)
7. Kate Douglass (2nd in 200 IM)
8. Erika Brown

Let's say the top 6 go in order here, but the 50 free still ends up Manuel in first and Curzan in second. Forde would be the 26th and last swimmer on the team, saved by Schmitt being 6th here because she's already qualified elsewhere. But if, say, Curzan finishes third and it's two swimmers making it in the 50 who didn't otherwise qualify, Forde would be on the outside looking in.

Forde really wants Schmitt and Douglass in the top 6 in tonight's 100 free final.

**

Other relevant action in this morning's prelims:

* 800 freestyle: Ledecky is fastest in the prelims (no semis, just straight from this morning's heats to tomorrow's final), which is no surprise. But Leah Smith failed to make the final in something of a shock--she's been the closest to Ledecky at the 400/800 for years, and she will now not be going to the Olympics after just missing out in the 200 free (by two spots) and the 400 free (by one spot). That is actually good news for Forde, as the 2nd- and 3rd-fastest swimmers are likely to qualify elsewhere (Bella Sims was 5th in the 200 free and Erica Sullivan was second in the 1500 free). But the rest of the swimmers in the final won't qualify elsewhere, so if one of them goes slightly faster tomorrow night, she'd be back where she was at the start of the day--very much on the bubble.

* 200 back: Incoming freshman Regan Smith holds the world record, so she's the favorite, and she came through with the top time. The semis are tonight, with Phoebe Bacon and Rhyan White (2nd in 100 back) the 2nd and 3rd seeds after this morning's heats. Interestingly, Kathleen Baker qualified for tonight's semis in 11th place, and she had the second-fastest time coming in. Could've been intentional to avoid overtaxing herself, like many elite swimmers have done before her (I remember Phelps and Lochte barely qualifying for the semis in some of their events an Olympics or two ago, and many were breathless with concern that they might be injured, but they came out and crushed those events in the end. Sometimes it is indeed a sign that something is off, like Manuel's prelim swims, but sometimes it's just strategy.) She left it a little close, though. Another .34 seconds slower and she wouldn't have advanced. Forde is rooting for White to take second behind Smith.

**

As a reminder, tonight on the women's side we have the 200 back semis and finals in the 200 breaststroke and the 100 free. While Forde will understandably be cheering on Stanford teammate Allie Raab in the 200 breaststroke, Raab isn't expected to be in the top two, and Lilly King being in the top two is what will help her the most. (It's awesome that Raab even made the final--she was 25th on the psych sheet coming in, but she made the final by going a full two seconds faster than she ever has. The problem is that 2:26.68 is the fastest she's gone, and the top few swimmers should be in the 2:21s or lower tonight.)

Sakibomb25 - Sakibomb25 - 06-18-2021

Baker had a broken foot… she injured herself back in May. That’s why she hasn’t been swimming to her usual standards.

I am surprised many of the veterans haven’t been swimming well. Not sure what’s going on this Olympic cycle (or maybe COVID has affected athletes in ways we never could have imagined).

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - M T - 06-18-2021

(06-18-2021, 10:15 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Ugh, that sounds awful. I hope she can take a well-deserved break soon.

I hope Simone Manuel qualifies in the 50 Free and can't take a break for 6 weeks or so.

Being out 3 weeks in April would be a bigger effect on the longer races, but shouldn't be too bad an effect on a 100 and less on a 50. However, she complains about not having speed.

"Overtraining syndrome" sounds like a diagnosis one gets when they can't find a physical problem, so the best guess is something that can't be tested. I'm not saying she doesn't have a physical problem. We've all heard of people that go through diagnosis after diagnosis as they search to find a doctor that can figure it out. (And I'm not suggesting that the doctors are not good, just that the human body sometimes manifests symptoms in unexpected ways. I don't know if she had COVID, but it has been blamed for a number of strange symptoms.)

From the article, and from her facial reaction to not making the 100 final, it seems she still wants to swim & do well. I wish her well and hope that she is able to come back in 3 years for 2024.

RE: Sakibomb25 - ColoradoTree - 06-18-2021

(06-18-2021, 10:20 AM)Sakibomb25 Wrote: Baker had a broken foot… she injured herself back in May. That’s why she hasn’t been swimming to her usual standards.

I am surprised many of the veterans haven’t been swimming well. Not sure what’s going on this Olympic cycle (or maybe COVID has affected athletes in ways we never could have imagined).

Oh shoot, that's right--I remember the announcers mentioning that earlier in Trials and just spaced it.

Not sure about why some veterans have fallen off a bit, but the extra year does seem to have shaken things up in terms of youngsters challenging for spots. A year ago, Regan Smith is obviously still there in the backstroke events, but does she qualify in the 200 fly? Does Huske win the 100 fly and does Curzan finish second? Does Manuel perfectly hit her taper and not run into overtraining issues that could be related to extending the training cycle a year? Any Olympic team is a snapshot in time, and there are absolutely some people who would have been Olympians last year but now may never be.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - teejers1 - 06-18-2021

(06-18-2021, 11:26 AM)M T Wrote:
(06-18-2021, 10:15 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Ugh, that sounds awful. I hope she can take a well-deserved break soon.

I hope Simone Manuel qualifies in the 50 Free and can't take a break for 6 weeks or so.

Being out 3 weeks in April would be a bigger effect on the longer races, but shouldn't be too bad an effect on a 100 and less on a 50. However, she complains about not having speed.

"Overtraining syndrome" sounds like a diagnosis one gets when they can't find a physical problem, so the best guess is something that can't be tested. I'm not saying she doesn't have a physical problem. We've all heard of people that go through diagnosis after diagnosis as they search to find a doctor that can figure it out. (And I'm not suggesting that the doctors are not good, just that the human body sometimes manifests symptoms in unexpected ways. I don't know if she had COVID, but it has been blamed for a number of strange symptoms.)

From the article, and from her facial reaction to not making the 100 final, it seems she still wants to swim & do well. I wish her well and hope that she is able to come back in 3 years for 2024.

Covid . . . again? C'mon now.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - DC 86 - 06-19-2021

(06-18-2021, 11:26 AM)M T Wrote: I hope Simone Manuel qualifies in the 50 Free and can't take a break for 6 weeks or so.

Being out 3 weeks in April would be a bigger effect on the longer races, but shouldn't be too bad an effect on a 100 and less on a 50. However, she complains about not having speed.

She swam the second fastest qualifying time (24.56) in the 50 Free heats this morning, so that is encouraging.

Torri Huske had the third fastest qualifying time.

Sakibomb25 - Sakibomb25 - 06-19-2021

(06-18-2021, 02:00 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(06-18-2021, 11:26 AM)M T Wrote:
(06-18-2021, 10:15 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Ugh, that sounds awful. I hope she can take a well-deserved break soon.

I hope Simone Manuel qualifies in the 50 Free and can't take a break for 6 weeks or so.

Being out 3 weeks in April would be a bigger effect on the longer races, but shouldn't be too bad an effect on a 100 and less on a 50. However, she complains about not having speed.

"Overtraining syndrome" sounds like a diagnosis one gets when they can't find a physical problem, so the best guess is something that can't be tested. I'm not saying she doesn't have a physical problem. We've all heard of people that go through diagnosis after diagnosis as they search to find a doctor that can figure it out. (And I'm not suggesting that the doctors are not good, just that the human body sometimes manifests symptoms in unexpected ways. I don't know if she had COVID, but it has been blamed for a number of strange symptoms.)

From the article, and from her facial reaction to not making the 100 final, it seems she still wants to swim & do well. I wish her well and hope that she is able to come back in 3 years for 2024.
Covid . . . again? C'mon now.

I am not sure why you find this so hard to believe. Yes, some athletes are performing well… but a lot of people expected to do well have done terribly. Look at Leah Smith. Look at Nathan Adrian. And while she did qualify for four events, the times for Katie Ledecky be have been rather pedestrian. The ability to train has definitely hit the athletes harder than you or I could ever have imagined. Not to mention, the times are not as fast as you would imagine them to be at this juncture.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - akiddoc - 06-19-2021

Manuel to the finals #3 time. Huske #2.

Regan Smith the world record holder does not make the team in the 200 back. I blame it on swimming in the 200 fly, which is an exhausting race.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - ColoradoTree - 06-19-2021

So, last night the 200 breaststroke went according to form, with King finishing second, so that kept Forde on track.

In the 100 free, it went like this:

1. Weitzeil
2. Brown
3. Smoliga
4. Hinds
5. Deloof
6. Schmitt
7. Douglass
8. Mack

Forde wanted both Schmitt and Douglass in the top 6 to feel a bit safer, but she only got one, so the stress ramped up for tonight.

Had Bella Sims or Erica Sullivan finished second to Ledecky in tonight's 800 free (which was hardly a stretch, given they'd qualified second and third, respectively), that would've locked in Forde's spot on the team, but it wasn't to be.

Regan Smith's shock failure to qualify in the 200 back (an event in which she holds the world record) was bad news for American medal hopes in Tokyo, but it had the same effect on Forde's chances of qualifying as the expected Smith-Bacon finish would have, since White was already on the roster. But if Smith could've held on and it was Smith-White or at least White-Smith? That would've locked Forde into the team.

So, with one final left, here's what it means:

The math is pretty simple now. 24 swimmers have locked up spots, and there's just the 50 free to go. Of the eight swimmers in tomorrow night's 50 free final, five have already qualified for the Olympics. If just one of those five makes the top two, then Forde is in as the 26th and last swimmer. But if the top two in the 50 free are both new qualifiers, then Forde is out.

Here are the 8 qualifiers for the 50 free final, in seed (not lane) order, with already-qualified swimmers in italics and their pre-Trials seed in parentheses:

1. Abbey Weitzeil (4)
2. Torri Huske (3)
3. Simone Manuel (1)
4. Linnea Mack (11)
5. Erika Brown (6)
6. Gretchen Walsh (7)
7. Kate Douglass (5)
8. Catie Deloof (8)

If just one of the top two seeds ends up in the top two, she's good. And she's still ok if Manuel is in the top two, as long as Mack or Walsh doesn't join her. A Manuel-Huske finish would have extra Cardinal flavor, with a former and a future Cardinal joining forces to make sure a current one gets on there. It's as simple as that from a Stanford perspective, really. Huske being top two means Forde makes it. Manuel missing the top two also likely means Forde is in.

Man alive, just imagine Forde's mindset tomorrow. Sitting in the stands, knowing your Olympic fate depends on a few hundredths of a second one way or the other. The difference between the fastest swimmer in the semis and 9th place was just under five tenths of a second. 2nd through 4th were within 9 hundredths, 6th through 8th within 4 hundredths. Claire Curzan, the 2nd fastest 50 free swimmer coming in, was .08 out of a spot in the final. It's an absurd race, all over in under 25 seconds. And her Olympic dreams hang in the balance. All the while replaying the 200 free final, knowing that if you'd gone 9 hundredths faster in that race, you'd already be locked into the team. I don't know if I could watch.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - DC 86 - 06-19-2021

Thanks, ColoradoTree.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - DC 86 - 06-20-2021

Simone Manuel wins the 50 Free

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - BobK - 06-20-2021

Wow awesome. What a termendous athlete and person

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - DC 86 - 06-20-2021

And Brooke Forde gets the last spot on the team.

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - BobK - 06-20-2021

https://www.omegatiming.com/File/00011500030201EB04FFFFFFFFFFFF01.pdf

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - BostonCard - 06-20-2021

Proud papa:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ByPatForde/status/1406783507247026177?s=20[/tweet]

BC

RE: Swimming and Diving Olympic Trials - BobK - 06-20-2021

https://twitter.com/stanfordwswim/status/1406802219417018370?s=21