Stanford Football 2021 Predictions

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RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - OutsiderFan - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 11:01 AM)gailtate Wrote:
(09-12-2021, 12:14 AM)martyup Wrote: Would anyone like to revise their prediction for Stanford wins this season?

I picked 4-8. I saw a lot of promise under the lights in L.A. but I'll stay put until after the UCLA game. And again, it's about staying healthy. McKee goes down and they could flounder to no more than 3 wins, if that.

Wouldn't most teams struggle if they loose their starting QB? We tend to make predictions based on relative health of team assumptions.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - SamuelMcF - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 11:01 AM)gailtate Wrote:
(09-12-2021, 12:14 AM)martyup Wrote: Would anyone like to revise their prediction for Stanford wins this season?

I picked 4-8. I saw a lot of promise under the lights in L.A. but I'll stay put until after the UCLA game. And again, it's about staying healthy. McKee goes down and they could flounder to no more than 3 wins, if that.

Cmon now, that's the case with most teams. The majority will flounder if their starter goes down for extended time. That's a given and not something that should really be "predicted" before the season.

K State's QB went down with a bad injury super early in their game, and the backup is horrible (they beat the FCS team by 8 because of their all-America RB's 3 TDs). A bowl-caliber team that will now be lucky to get to 4 wins until/unless he comes back.

#5 Texas A&M's starting QB also went down very early against Colorado and they only scored 10 points (luckily, their defense is very very good and Colorado's freshman QB is not). An SEC championship-aspiring team predicted to win 9-10 wins faces Arkansas, the Pirate, and Alabama after the poor sophomore backup (who, mind, lost the job to a freshman, and completed 46% against Colorado) is blessed to start his first career game against New Mexico. Dropping 2 is likely enough to keep them out of championship contention by the time the starter returns in mid-late October.

BC's starter ALSO went down very early against UMass - to whom they gave up 28 non-garbage-time points! - and is out for the season. Vegas had their win total at 7, no doubt factoring in the 3 cupcakes they start with (Colgate, UMass, Temple next). Ruh roh.

UCLA's upset of LSU was no doubt helped by LSU's starting QB breaking his arm in August. LSU was 4-for-16 on 3rd down and amassed just 306 total yards against FCS McNeese State last weekend. (They had 379 at UCLA.)

South Carolina's starter was hurt in training camp. They needed to start a grad assistant who still had a year of eligibility (which is CRAZY) and eked by East Carolina by 3 points. He may or may not be back for this weekend against Georgia. It normally shouldn't matter, but JT Daniels - and his backup - are ALSO questionable. How the hell do you predict this before the season?

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - martyup - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 10:43 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 10:19 AM)Papa John Wrote: I predicted 7 wins and will stick with that until I see a more consistent running attack and until I'm confident that our opponents are who we think they are.

All I know is that Stanford is alone in first place in the Pac-12 North for at least three more days and a week longer if WSU loses to USC on Saturday.

Also, why in the world is Oregon playing Stony Brook? Nothing against Stony Brook; it's AAU and all that. But if the Ducks want to play an FCS team, why not someone more local?

Stanford plays Colgate next year. Glass houses.

Ah, the team with bright smiles.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - Stanfordindians1again - 09-15-2021

said 8-4 and sticking with it

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - CTcard - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 10:51 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I had 5 wins, which I thought would most likely come from Vandy, WSU, OSU, Cal, and one other. We now have that one other, even though I thought KSU was more likely than USC, so I have an easier time getting to 5. Given Washington's struggles to date (they are 0-2, scoring a grand total of 17 points against Montana and Michigan combined), I now see a path to six wins, but although I think over 5 wins is more likely than under 5 wins, I think my modal expectation is 5. There is even some further upside; neither ND (narrow wins against Toledo and FSU, who subsequently lost to Jacksonville State) nor Utah (loss to BYU) have impressed, some winning 7 or 8 is no longer as fanciful as it seemed before the season. That being said, Oregon looks to be "all that", and UCLA has finally turned the corner with Kelly, so the ceiling with this team is probably 8 wins.

Just a note about the teams on our schedule, not whether Stanford can or is likely to beat them.

Vandy - just won their first football game since November 2019. That earlier win was vs East Tennessee State, whom they managed to lose to to start out this season. Their latest win was versus a bad Colorado State team, but on the road. They'll likely be a bit optimistic to start.

UCLA - we all know they beat LSU handily. Of course LSU is showing signs of rot. Their other game this year was vs McNeese State where LSU only managed 300 yds of offense. Last year LSU was only 5-5. UCLA's other game was an easy win over Hawaii. UCLA is at least good.

Oregon - a great win over tOSU, and as many have noted it was on the road with a 9 am pacific start time. Impressive.
Strangely, Oregon has been outgained in both wins this year. Their offense struggled a bit versus Fresno, their defense versus tOSU. Of course I fear the real Oregon will be the vs. Fresno defense and the vs tOSU offense.

ASU - a trendy pick for the Pac 12 south during the preseason. That seems to be due to returning players and affection for Herm Edwards more than actual results. So far this year two meaningless wins over Southern Utah and UNLV. This week they go into BYU, which should be the first meaningful test.

WSU - they started off the season with a loss to Utah State, which can't be a good sign but WSU has started seasons with disasters before but ended up okay. They did come back with a win over Portland State - but I wouldn't call it impressive. They barely outgained Portland, and strangely for what we remember of WSU, they outrushed PSU but gained fewer pass yards.

Washington - as already covered, the beginning of their season has been atrocious. I haven't kept up with what is going on there, or their prospects for righting the ship.

Utah - first game vs Weber doesn't tell us anything. Loss vs BYU might, but BYU might also be very good. I'd also expect Utah to be better at righting early season problems than most. TBD.

OSU - lost to Purdue on the road, beat Hawaii at home. Purdue might actually be decent. Another TBD.

cal - 0-2. TCU might be a "good loss", Nevada was not. Offense might be better, defense worse.

und - also heavily discussed here. Not an impressive start, but they did win and I am sure they have plenty of potential NFL players.

As usual, once the season gets going, the schedule doesn't look quite as daunting. It's still ridiculously tough, however.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - BostonCard - 09-15-2021

So if ASU beats BYU, does that mean that ASU is good, or that Utah is bad? Conversely, if BYU wins, does that mean that BYU is just really good, or that ASU and Utah are both not so good?

BC

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - Embo - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 11:41 AM)martyup Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 10:43 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote: Stanford plays Colgate next year. Glass houses.

Ah, the team with bright smiles.

Must avoid an upset. We better brush up about their offensive tendencies.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - gailtate - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 11:15 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 11:01 AM)gailtate Wrote:
(09-12-2021, 12:14 AM)martyup Wrote: Would anyone like to revise their prediction for Stanford wins this season?

I picked 4-8. I saw a lot of promise under the lights in L.A. but I'll stay put until after the UCLA game. And again, it's about staying healthy. McKee goes down and they could flounder to no more than 3 wins, if that.

Wouldn't most teams struggle if they loose their starting QB? We tend to make predictions based on relative health of team assumptions.

Not the teams with depth on both sides. And a stout defense -- which is key. Two particular deficiencies on this team this year. Most quality teams also have a more-than-adequate back-up QB. Not this team. You want to hope McKee's health parallels Hogan's.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - chrisk - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 11:41 AM)martyup Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 10:43 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 10:19 AM)Papa John Wrote: I predicted 7 wins and will stick with that until I see a more consistent running attack and until I'm confident that our opponents are who we think they are.

All I know is that Stanford is alone in first place in the Pac-12 North for at least three more days and a week longer if WSU loses to USC on Saturday.

Also, why in the world is Oregon playing Stony Brook? Nothing against Stony Brook; it's AAU and all that. But if the Ducks want to play an FCS team, why not someone more local?

Stanford plays Colgate next year. Glass houses.

Ah, the team with bright smiles.

Stony Brook beat Colgate 24-3 on the road last week.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - Papa John - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 10:43 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote: <snip>

Stanford plays Colgate next year. Glass houses.

I did not know that, but now that I do I think it's pretty ridiculous. I guess Sac State, UC Davis, Cal Poly SLO and San Diego (University of) weren't available.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - Papa John - 09-15-2021

Speaking of schedules, I took a glance at the first two games scheduled for each FBS opponent *this* year. A lot has been made about Stanford playing 12 regular season Power 5 opponents, but that's not all that separates us from our Power 5 brethren.

Only two other Power 5 teams have played Power 5 opponents *in their first two games*! That would be Iowa, who defeated Indiana and Iowa State--impressive!--and tOSU, who defeated Minnesota but lost to Oregon. However, both schools play Group of 5 opponents this Saturday, so their opening Power 5 streaks will end at 2.

Now granted, a number of Group of 5 teams are very good, e.g. #8 Cincinnati, #16 Coastal Carolina, #23 BYU. And some Power 5 teams are likely very bad, e.g. Vanderbilt. But this is still a pretty remarkable distinction for Stanford, IMO.

So, this year, Stanford will be the only Power 5 team to play all Power 5 opponents in its *first three* games. Stanford will also be the only Power 5 team to play its first three games on the road.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - ADPinWDC - 09-15-2021

Recasting the 2021 Schedule, after U$C...
Until clobbering U$C, bowling was in doubt.
Sept. 4 Kansas State (in TX): LOSS. But, set McKee as Starting QB
Sept. 11 at USC: BIG WIN. T.McKee delivers! Cardinal defense holds -- a boffo 42-28 decking and it wasn't that close.
Sept. 18 at Vanderbilt: WIN. We impose our will against a winless team last season.
Sept. 25 UCLA: TOSSUP -- But lean toword UCLA with DTR at QB; Shaw used to have Bruins on lock.
McKee needs to light it up in home debut. Defense gotta force turnovers.
Oct. 2 Oregon: LOSS. Ducks posted the marquee victory of year so far, thumping #3 OHST there. Very fast on both sides.
Oct. 8 at AZ State: TOSSUP -- Devils potent on both sides of the ball. They have weapons at QB and RB.
Oct. 16 at Washington State: WIN -- Going to Pullman in Oct is way better than in soggy Nov.
Oct. 23 OPEN DATE Could be 5-2 or 3-4 at midway mark

Oct. 30 Washington: WIN -- Huskies are lost and humiliated. We handled em in Seattle last year.
Nov. 5 Utah: WIN -- Big Ute Defense, but BYU showed how to beat em with an active attack and aggressive defense.
Nov. 13 at Oregon State: WIN. -- Up there, hard to predict in Nov. Beavs on a wet track. Ugly. But, our run game works.
Nov. 20 KalSucks: WIN -- refuse to give up the Axe. Kal has issues on Offense, cuz they inhale badly.
Nov. 27 Notre Dame: TOSSUP -- By then, NDAM will know whether they need this game for a Playoff / NY6 spot.
We famously beat the Domers in PA in 2015 and 2017 when they were ranked in Top Ten. No need to concede to NDAM in PA.
WINS: 7 or 8
TOSSUPS: 3
LOSSES: 2 to 4
NET: We go 8-4 or 7-5, maybe 9-3.

If Oregon goes 13-0, then they make the Playoff, freeing up the Rose Bowl spot. Trickle down wealth.
STANFORD BACK TO BOWLING: Alamo, Sun or Holiday.
Even at 6-6, we could make Hawaii Bowl.

And, if we finish at least 7-5 some Bowl speculation
After Week 2:
COTTON Bowl (Playoff), 12/31. BAMA vs OREG.
ROSE, 1/1: UCLA vs OHST
ALAMO, 12/29: AZST vs UTEX
HOLIDAY, 12/28: UTAH vs BCOL
VEGAS, 12/30: U$C vs NORW
SUN, 12/31: STAN vs VATC
HAWAII, 12/24: WASH? vs SDST?
LA CRENSHAW: COLO vs FRST
EAST BAY FLUSH: KAL vs NE Fumble Univ

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - needle - 09-15-2021

VERY FWIW: This attempt at rankings based solely on what teams have accomplished puts Kansas State as the No. 2 team in the nation.

Oregon ranked No. 1, Stanford No. 57 (behind SC, No. 54).

https://spoz851.wixsite.com/powerdigits/currentrankings

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - Papa John - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 05:31 PM)needle Wrote: VERY FWIW: This attempt at rankings based solely on what teams have accomplished puts Kansas State as the No. 2 team in the nation.

Oregon ranked No. 1, Stanford No. 57 (behind SC, No. 54).

https://spoz851.wixsite.com/powerdigits/currentrankings

Interesting. Maybe there just aren't enough data points, but Iowa, as I mentioned above, is the only team to have beaten two Power 5 teams, and they were high quality wins versus Indiana and Iowa State. I have no idea how good or bad Stanford and USC really are, but Iowa should be way higher than #24.

And I'm pretty sure that when all is said and done, UT-San Antonio will not be the ninth-best college football team in America.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - teejers1 - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 05:29 PM)ADPinWDC Wrote: Recasting the 2021 Schedule, after U$C...
Until clobbering U$C, bowling was in doubt.
Sept. 4 Kansas State (in TX): LOSS. But, set McKee as Starting QB
Sept. 11 at USC: BIG WIN. T.McKee delivers! Cardinal defense holds -- a boffo 42-28 decking and it wasn't that close.
Sept. 18 at Vanderbilt: WIN. We impose our will against a winless team last season.
Sept. 25 UCLA: TOSSUP -- But lean toword UCLA with DTR at QB; Shaw used to have Bruins on lock.
McKee needs to light it up in home debut. Defense gotta force turnovers.
Oct. 2 Oregon: LOSS. Ducks posted the marquee victory of year so far, thumping #3 OHST there. Very fast on both sides.
Oct. 8 at AZ State: TOSSUP -- Devils potent on both sides of the ball. They have weapons at QB and RB.
Oct. 16 at Washington State: WIN -- Going to Pullman in Oct is way better than in soggy Nov.
Oct. 23 OPEN DATE Could be 5-2 or 3-4 at midway mark

Oct. 30 Washington: WIN -- Huskies are lost and humiliated. We handled em in Seattle last year.
Nov. 5 Utah: WIN -- Big Ute Defense, but BYU showed how to beat em with an active attack and aggressive defense.
Nov. 13 at Oregon State: WIN. -- Up there, hard to predict in Nov. Beavs on a wet track. Ugly. But, our run game works.
Nov. 20 KalSucks: WIN -- refuse to give up the Axe. Kal has issues on Offense, cuz they inhale badly.
Nov. 27 Notre Dame: TOSSUP -- By then, NDAM will know whether they need this game for a Playoff / NY6 spot.
We famously beat the Domers in PA in 2015 and 2017 when they were ranked in Top Ten. No need to concede to NDAM in PA.
WINS: 7 or 8
TOSSUPS: 3
LOSSES: 2 to 4
NET: We go 8-4 or 7-5, maybe 9-3.

If Oregon goes 13-0, then they make the Playoff, freeing up the Rose Bowl spot. Trickle down wealth.
STANFORD BACK TO BOWLING: Alamo, Sun or Holiday.
Even at 6-6, we could make Hawaii Bowl.

And, if we finish at least 7-5 some Bowl speculation
After Week 2:
COTTON Bowl (Playoff), 12/31. BAMA vs OREG.
ROSE, 1/1: UCLA vs OHST
ALAMO, 12/29: AZST vs UTEX
HOLIDAY, 12/28: UTAH vs BCOL
VEGAS, 12/30: U$C vs NORW
SUN, 12/31: STAN vs VATC
HAWAII, 12/24: WASH? vs SDST?
LA CRENSHAW: COLO vs FRST
EAST BAY FLUSH: KAL vs NE Fumble Univ

The only one that strikes a dissonant chord: Utah.
For some reason, the Utes have ownage on the Cardinal.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - winflop - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 02:43 PM)BostonCard Wrote: So if ASU beats BYU, does that mean that ASU is good, or that Utah is bad? Conversely, if BYU wins, does that mean that BYU is just really good, or that ASU and Utah are both not so good?

BC

This is exactly why I'm not yet getting excited about 1-1 Stanford - in either direction. We just don't know enough yet. The sample size is too small. I think it will take at least a couple more games before we really get an idea about where many teams stand directionally (good, bad, meh).

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - SamuelMcF - 09-15-2021

(09-15-2021, 05:00 PM)Papa John Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 10:43 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote: <snip>

Stanford plays Colgate next year. Glass houses.

I did not know that, but now that I do I think it's pretty ridiculous. I guess Sac State, UC Davis, Cal Poly SLO and San Diego (University of) weren't available.

Stanford plays Sac State in 2023 and Cal Poly in 2024. Lol.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - martyup - 09-16-2021

(09-15-2021, 11:10 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 05:00 PM)Papa John Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 10:43 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote: <snip>

Stanford plays Colgate next year. Glass houses.

I did not know that, but now that I do I think it's pretty ridiculous. I guess Sac State, UC Davis, Cal Poly SLO and San Diego (University of) weren't available.

Stanford plays Sac State in 2023 and Cal Poly in 2024. Lol.

Trap games

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - gailtate - 09-16-2021

(09-16-2021, 07:52 AM)martyup Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 11:10 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 05:00 PM)Papa John Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 10:43 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote: <snip>

Stanford plays Colgate next year. Glass houses.

I did not know that, but now that I do I think it's pretty ridiculous. I guess Sac State, UC Davis, Cal Poly SLO and San Diego (University of) weren't available.

Stanford plays Sac State in 2023 and Cal Poly in 2024. Lol.

Trap games

Playing "down" doesn't work out -- for Stanford in particular. Sparse crowd, no energy save for the visiting fans who do show up, and it's a no-win. Worse, when it's a real loss, it's a stain that remains for years. See UC Davis, '05.

RE: Stanford Football 2021 Predictions - Papa John - 09-16-2021

Spot on, gailtate.