Jack West to start vs KSU - Printable Version

Jack West to start vs KSU - Printable Version

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RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - BostonCard - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 11:03 AM)Phogge Wrote: McKee is four years out of high school. If he’s not ready to start now will he ever be? Shaw put his eggs in one basket and is now living with it good or bad. I think he should actively look for a transfer QB for 2022 (and convince Admissions to accede). And get off the ball on recruiting two QB’s for 2023.

Two of those years he was in a mission in Brazil(?) not exactly learning football. In 2019 he was a redshirt. Last year there was a pandemic, with limited practices and games. Yes, he is four years out of high school, but effectively he is a year and a half into the program. Of course in plenty of other places, that is enough, so it's not meant to excuse the coaching staff; it's just you don't need to pick the phrasing that makes it sound the worst.

BC

(09-03-2021, 11:19 AM)lex24 Wrote: No clue how West will do. But I do think he’s been wrongly labeled as below average based primarily if not exclusively on one start he made two years ago. At a time he was not ready.

It's not just the UCLA game (or even the Oregon game last year). By his senior year in high school, he had fallen off the elite QB trajectory. Those close to the program had been saying for years that he wasn't at the same level as many of our other QB's. I hope the proverbial light bulb has finally gone off and that he has gotten better, but after several years in the program, I don't think expectations have been high for him.

BC

lex24 - lex24 - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 01:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(09-03-2021, 11:03 AM)Phogge Wrote: McKee is four years out of high school. If he’s not ready to start now will he ever be? Shaw put his eggs in one basket and is now living with it good or bad. I think he should actively look for a transfer QB for 2022 (and convince Admissions to accede). And get off the ball on recruiting two QB’s for 2023.

Two of those years he was in a mission in Brazil(?) not exactly learning football. In 2019 he was a redshirt. Last year there was a pandemic, with limited practices and games. Yes, he is four years out of high school, but effectively he is a year and a half into the program. Of course in plenty of other places, that is enough, so it's not meant to excuse the coaching staff; it's just you don't need to pick the phrasing that makes it sound the worst.

BC

(09-03-2021, 11:19 AM)lex24 Wrote: No clue how West will do. But I do think he’s been wrongly labeled as below average based primarily if not exclusively on one start he made two years ago. At a time he was not ready.

It's not just the UCLA game (or even the Oregon game last year). By his senior year in high school, he had fallen off the elite QB trajectory. Those close to the program had been saying for years that he wasn't at the same level as many of our other QB's. I hope the proverbial light bulb has finally gone off and that he has gotten better, but after several years in the program, I don't think expectations have been high for him.

BC

Well, we will see soon. Some are ready immediately, some develop later, some never develop. Hoping West fits door No 2

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - mutoo1 - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 12:09 PM)winflop Wrote:
(09-03-2021, 11:19 AM)lex24 Wrote: No clue how West will do. But I do think he’s been wrongly labeled as below average based primarily if not exclusively on one start he made two years ago. At a time he was not ready.

Not just one game. West was an unimpressive 13/19 for 154 with 0 TD/0 INT against Oregon last year. You can argue all you want about how he was thrown into that situation last minute. As the backup QB you need to be prepared to be the guy at a moment's notice.

I think it's hard to argue that based on his two starts, West is anything better than mediocre, and that's not good enough. So let's hope he's significantly improved.

not sure why winflop thinks 13/19 for 154 w/ 0 TD/0 INT = "unimpressive" given the circumstances. easy to argue otherwise.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Softball Fan - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 11:03 AM)Phogge Wrote: I think he should actively look for a transfer QB for 2022 (and convince Admissions to accede).

Does Shaw/AD have that kind of influence over Admissions. As someone who values Stanford's academic standards, I would be disappointed a varsity coach has the power to lower admissions requirements. Although I guess legacy applicants and applicants from wealthy donors get special consideration so maybe it's not really out of line.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Langdude - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 01:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote: In 2019 he was a redshirt.

In 2019 he was in Brazil. Last year was his first in the program, which bolsters your point.

-m.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Austroturf - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 09:53 AM)jonnyss Wrote: in the past, david shaw has often started the more experienced qb, who "knows the playbook better," until we lose a few games. will this year be different?

This is also my suspicion. Shaw is giving West the nod because he has started a couple of games already. Further, I suspect Shaw will run and run the ball in the early stages, so if our O-Line isn't opening holes for Jones and Peat, we will find ourselves with maybe a FG to our credit by mid 2nd quarter. Of course, the O-Line appears to be one of the better units on the team, so maybe the run-heavy offense at the beginning of the game will work, and Shaw can start opening the playbook up after a couple of scores when K-State starts selling out to stop the run. This would be great, but I just don't believe it will happen. My prediction is we rally too late and lose this one. And I also predicted West would start (50-50 bet, but I just knew Shaw would not throw McKee into the breach of the first game). Maybe West has improved, and I will be eating crow by the end of the game. I would be fine with that, but I am not betting the farm on it.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Papa John - 09-03-2021

According to his Twitter account, McKee arrived at Stanford on July 1, 2020. As has been repeatedly mentioned by some of us, he didn't play football in 2018 and 2019, unless it was the Brazilian version that some of us call soccer. He was a highly sought-after recruit in 2018. 247sports had him as the #3 pro-style passer in the class--behind Trevor Lawrence and JT Daniels--and the #46 player overall. He had dozens of offers including Alabama, Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Florida State and UCLA.

Barring injury he'll be starting for Stanford when the coaches decide he's ready. Since he's already listed as OR with Jack West for the first game, then maybe that will happen sooner rather than later.

By comparison, in 2008 Andrew Luck was the #3 pro-style passer--behind Dayne Crist and Blaine Gabbert--and the #42 player overall.
In 2017, Davis Mills was the #1 pro-style passer--ahead of Hunter Thompson and Jake Fromm--and the #15 player overall.

Keller Chryst, KJ Costello were also the #3 passers in their classes. No other recruit in the Shawbaugh era was in the top 8, unless I missed someone.

Is Tanner McKee the next Andrew Luck? Highly doubtful, but I would be perfectly happy if his performance is along the lines of Mills, Costello or, obviously, Hogan.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Austroturf - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 01:47 PM)Langdude Wrote:
(09-03-2021, 01:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote: In 2019 he was a redshirt.

In 2019 he was in Brazil. Last year was his first in the program, which bolsters your point.

-m.

Exactly. McKee's only season to date was the abbreviated Corona season (so six games). In terms of eligibility, he is technically a redshirt freshman (and an academic sophomore). That said, if he is good, we should use him sooner rather than later. His Mormon cohort, Simi Fehoko, produced one good season for the Cardinal (2020), then split for the NFL after what was technically his redshirt sophomore season (in 2018, he only played four games and caught one pass for 6 yards, so he entered 2019 as a redshirt freshman). The two-year Mormon mission makes it possible for athletes to leave earlier if they feel their draft stock is up simply because they are older. If McKee is the real deal, play him now, because if he is the real deal, he will be gone after the 2022 season. That's two seasons. We got 3 1/2 seasons out of Hogan and 3 out of Luck. Since those seasons (2009-2015), productivity from our highly-touted QBs has tanked (Burns/Chryst 2016, Chryst/Costello 2017, Costello 2018, Mills/Costello 2019, Mills 2020). Some of this is beyond the coaching staff's control. But the motto needs to be: play the best talents early and often.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - teejers1 - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 01:43 PM)paloalto Wrote:
(09-03-2021, 11:03 AM)Phogge Wrote: I think he should actively look for a transfer QB for 2022 (and convince Admissions to accede).

Does Shaw/AD have that kind of influence over Admissions. As someone who values Stanford's academic standards, I would be disappointed a varsity coach has the power to lower admissions requirements. Although I guess legacy applicants and applicants from wealthy donors get special consideration so maybe it's not really out of line.

Historically, Admissions eases up on Admissions when the program is seen as faltering/flailing. I think that's why we've seen some "pleasant surprises" in admits in most recent recruiting cycle (if I'm interpreting posts on other site correctly). You left out many attributes from candidates that get "special consideration" - if by special you mean breaks from academic and testing numbers.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Papa John - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 02:44 PM)Austroturf Wrote: <snip>
Since those seasons (2009-2015), productivity from our highly-touted QBs has tanked (Burns/Chryst 2016, Chryst/Costello 2017, Costello 2018, Mills/Costello 2019, Mills 2020). Some of this is beyond the coaching staff's control. But the motto needs to be: play the best talents early and often.

I don't think QB productivity tanked after 2015. There are lots of measures for that, but here's the scoop using ESPN's quarterback ratings:

2009 Luck: 143.5
2010 Luck: 170.2
2011 Luck: 169.7
Luck overall: 162.8

2012 Nunes: 119.6

2012 Hogan: 147.9
2013 Hogan: 151.5
2014 Hogan: 145.8
2015 Hogan: 171.0
Hogan overall: 154.6

2016 Burns: 121.2
2016 Chryst: 133.8
2017 Chryst: 123.1
2017 Costello: 139.5
2018 Costello: 155.0
2019 Costello: 121.6
2019 Mills: 144.8
2020 Mills: 139.9

KJ Costello had the best QBR in the Pac-12 in 2018, Davis Mills was 4th in the god-awful 2019 and 3rd in the Covid-awful 2020. I would say that the QB play has been pretty good since the UCLA game in 2017.

Now if you had written that the defense has pretty much tanked in the last few years, I'd agree.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Goose - 09-03-2021

I believe Shaw may be starting West at least partially as a reward for being a "good soldier". It may be that McKee will be playing lots, if not most of the game anyway, but West may get the start as a reward. It also is probable Shaw wants to minimize mistakes early until he sees what his running game will actually bring. From what I have heard, West is pretty good with throws in the short to medium range, but just doesn't have the arm to throw deep. Depending on the game plan, that may be fine, especially with Wilson out.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Austroturf - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 03:19 PM)Papa John Wrote:
(09-03-2021, 02:44 PM)Austroturf Wrote: <snip>
Since those seasons (2009-2015), productivity from our highly-touted QBs has tanked (Burns/Chryst 2016, Chryst/Costello 2017, Costello 2018, Mills/Costello 2019, Mills 2020). Some of this is beyond the coaching staff's control. But the motto needs to be: play the best talents early and often.

I don't think QB productivity tanked after 2015. There are lots of measures for that, but here's the scoop using ESPN's quarterback ratings:

2009 Luck: 143.5
2010 Luck: 170.2
2011 Luck: 169.7
Luck overall: 162.8

2012 Nunes: 119.6

2012 Hogan: 147.9
2013 Hogan: 151.5
2014 Hogan: 145.8
2015 Hogan: 171.0
Hogan overall: 154.6

2016 Burns: 121.2
2016 Chryst: 133.8
2017 Chryst: 123.1
2017 Costello: 139.5
2018 Costello: 155.0
2019 Costello: 121.6
2019 Mills: 144.8
2020 Mills: 139.9

KJ Costello had the best QBR in the Pac-12 in 2018, Davis Mills was 4th in the god-awful 2019 and 3rd in the Covid-awful 2020. I would say that the QB play has been pretty good since the UCLA game in 2017.

Now if you had written that the defense has pretty much tanked in the last few years, I'd agree.

Defense definitely tanked, as well. QBR is only one measure. Sustained position performance is another. Can we consider the Stanford tenure of Ryan Burns a success? Hardly. The highly-touted Keller Chryst from nearby Paly high? Nope. Costello is the closest we have gotten to a QB who, for at least one season (2018), lived up to his billing. Mills was a highly-talented QB who had a solid 4-1 run in 2020. Yes, that is more or less the entire Stanford story of the 5-Star #1-rated recruit whose contribution we were all anxiously anticipating. It was a Corona-abbreviated blip. Yes, Mills set a school passing record in a bad loss to WSU in 2019; but that was a 4-8 season and nothing to remember. If McKee is good, give him the reins and let him work for at least two seasons before the siren call of the NFL lures him away. Clemson, a football factory, got at least three seasons out of Trevor Lawrence. Stanford should do better with its talent. We got 13 games from Mills as a starter. Now he is with the Houston Texans. Injuries were definitely a factor in his limited playing time, but Clemson got 40 games out of Lawrence. QBR does not reveal any of this. Our best years go back to two QBs who played for 6 1/2 years total; and, yes, they had the help of better defensive units, as well.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Papa John - 09-03-2021

I don't think we're that far apart, Austroturf. There was definitely a dropoff in productivity with Burn and Chryst, and also with the others if you include longevity.

But I say if McKee is that good, give him the reins when he is ready. He's had 1/2 season with the team. Even Andrew Luck had a full season with the program before Jim Harbaugh started him over Tavita Pritchard. Plus Andrew Luck went straight from high school to college.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Phogge - 09-03-2021

Everybody else is reaping the benefits of transferring (restocking a position or positions) or blasted by good players transferring. Sometimes both. If Stanford sits idle it further gives fodder to those who believe that the program is in trouble. If McKee and West stumble what's left are guys with no college experience and by definition in Shaw's dictionary are not capable of playing due to his gigantic syllabus.

So if you don't accept transfer QB's then recruit better and perhaps just one time take two guys if you can get them. Holy moly to make it in post Stanford life you have to compete in whatever you do. Why not learn it in the QB Room?

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Brickcity - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 04:27 PM)Phogge Wrote: Everybody else is reaping the benefits of transferring (restocking a position or positions) or blasted by good players transferring. Sometimes both. If Stanford sits idle it further gives fodder to those who believe that the program is in trouble. If McKee and West stumble what's left are guys with no college experience and by definition in Shaw's dictionary are not capable of playing due to his gigantic syllabus.

So if you don't accept transfer QB's then recruit better and perhaps just one time take two guys if you can get them. Holy moly to make it in post Stanford life you have to compete in whatever you do. Why not learn it in the QB Room?

Bingo! Shaw seems to have whiffed big time on his decision to give West a scholarship. But, had he offered a guy between West and McKee - who would now be a redshirt sophomore and presumably more comfortable with the offense than McKee - Shaw would have a third option to go with as starter.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - BostonCard - 09-03-2021

Indeed, we are continuing to re-learn the lesson that recruiting gap = bad.

BC

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Row80Critic - 09-03-2021

Shaw is extraordinarily predictable. West was going to 'start' unless he broke his arm in practice. Nunes, Burns, West, probably others I'm forgetting. I hope he surprises us all.

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - BostonCard - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 05:44 PM)Row80Critic Wrote: Shaw is extraordinarily predictable. West was going to 'start' unless he broke his arm in practice. Nunes, Burns, West, probably others I'm forgetting. I hope he surprises us all.

Chryst, when Costello was probably ready.

BC

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - Snorlax94 - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 05:44 PM)Row80Critic Wrote: Shaw is extraordinarily predictable. West was going to 'start' unless he broke his arm in practice. Nunes, Burns, West, probably others I'm forgetting. I hope he surprises us all.

Yes, agree, don’t see why anyone is surprised. It was going to be West.

Maybe Shaw feels that KState game is winnable with the more experienced game manager, and why risk the game?

We won with Ryan Burns last time.

Then we will see.

And I don’t see why everyone is bemoaning the number of qbs to choose from. With Patu and Isaiah Sanders, don’t we have 4 quarterbacks?

RE: Jack West to start vs KSU - CTcard - 09-03-2021

(09-03-2021, 01:42 PM)mutoo1 Wrote:
(09-03-2021, 12:09 PM)winflop Wrote:
(09-03-2021, 11:19 AM)lex24 Wrote: No clue how West will do. But I do think he’s been wrongly labeled as below average based primarily if not exclusively on one start he made two years ago. At a time he was not ready.

Not just one game. West was an unimpressive 13/19 for 154 with 0 TD/0 INT against Oregon last year. You can argue all you want about how he was thrown into that situation last minute. As the backup QB you need to be prepared to be the guy at a moment's notice.

I think it's hard to argue that based on his two starts, West is anything better than mediocre, and that's not good enough. So let's hope he's significantly improved.

not sure why winflop thinks 13/19 for 154 w/ 0 TD/0 INT = "unimpressive" given the circumstances. easy to argue otherwise.

The game that West started last year, vs Oregon, in some ways was the most productive game of the year for the offense between the 20s. Stanford averaged 7.25 yds per play, tops on the year. That was also, by far, the most yds/play that Oregon gave up on the year.
Of course there was the red zone. This was the game where four times Stanford drives stalled deep, leading to four missed field goals.

Overall, West was pretty decent in that game, though the red zone failures were on him as much as anyone.