Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4

Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 (/thread-22380.html)

Pages: 1 2

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - teejers1 - 10-05-2021

(10-05-2021, 11:53 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:
(10-05-2021, 11:47 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Think simplest explanation for OSU performance, including QB, against UW is that the Huskies have a very, very good defense.
UW will not be the pushover W for Stanford that some assume.

And the ASU game looks to be the most difficult match up for Stanford the rest of the way (with ND right there, as well). I expect an L for the Cardinal in Tempe on Friday night; but if Stanford pulls out a W, then it will be time to re-evaluate season prospects.

Did anyone expect Washington to be a pushover?
I know I sure didn't, and don't recall anyone claiming they would be.

Thought people penciled UW in the win column after they lost opener at home to Montana and then got blown out by Michigan in Game 2. But maybe I'm mistaken. Anyway, Stanford can win that game, but it won't be easy, as it might be against an overmatched opponent.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - ADPinWDC - 10-05-2021

We don't have any "easy games" on our schedule -- a Top Ten toughest schedule.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - martyup - 10-05-2021

Last night I watched the Pac-12 Football in 60 game between OSU and UW. I was not overly impressed with either of those teams. OSU got an early TD on a short field drive from a UW fumble. They needed to kick a FG to win it with just a few seconds remaining on the clock. Neither QB looked great and both threw interceptions. I'm not sold that OSU is as tough as the pundits are making them out to be. The good Stanford team (ala first Q against Oregon and USC game) should be able to give them a run for their money. The bad Stanford team . . . well.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - CTcard - 10-05-2021

(10-05-2021, 11:47 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Think simplest explanation for OSU performance, including QB, against UW is that the Huskies have a very, very good defense.

That would indeed be simple. It might be true, though mostly UW's schedule has been so soft its hard to tell.

UW gave up 319 pass yds to Cal, 220 yds to Arkansas St., but 48 to Oregon State. The Beavs put up the worst PER of any UW opponent so far.

I'd say the most likely primary explanation is that Nolan had an off day.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - martyup - 10-05-2021

(10-05-2021, 04:28 PM)CTcard Wrote:
(10-05-2021, 11:47 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Think simplest explanation for OSU performance, including QB, against UW is that the Huskies have a very, very good defense.

That would indeed be simple. It might be true, though mostly UW's schedule has been so soft its hard to tell.

UW gave up 319 pass yds to Cal, 220 yds to Arkansas St., but 48 to Oregon State. The Beavs put up the worst PER of any UW opponent so far.

I'd say the most likely primary explanation is that Nolan had an off day.

Nolan wasn't throwing the ball against UW and ended up with only 15 passes against 50 rushing attempts.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - CTcard - 10-05-2021

(10-05-2021, 04:41 PM)martyup Wrote:
(10-05-2021, 04:28 PM)CTcard Wrote:
(10-05-2021, 11:47 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Think simplest explanation for OSU performance, including QB, against UW is that the Huskies have a very, very good defense.

That would indeed be simple. It might be true, though mostly UW's schedule has been so soft its hard to tell.

UW gave up 319 pass yds to Cal, 220 yds to Arkansas St., but 48 to Oregon State. The Beavs put up the worst PER of any UW opponent so far.

I'd say the most likely primary explanation is that Nolan had an off day.

Nolan wasn't throwing the ball against UW and ended up with only 15 passes against 50 rushing attempts.

But his line was 7-15 for 3.2 yds/att no TDs and 1 INT. PER = 60 against a defense mostly trying to stop the run.
That was a bad day.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - BostonCard - 10-05-2021

(10-05-2021, 02:46 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Thought people penciled UW in the win column after they lost opener at home to Montana and then got blown out by Michigan in Game 2. But maybe I'm mistaken. Anyway, Stanford can win that game, but it won't be easy, as it might be against an overmatched opponent.

I don't know that we can pencil in any wins, though if we don't beat WSU and Cal, it is hard to see how we would have any chance at a winning season. Mentally, I put UW into the category of "a team we might be able to get our sixth win against". We got the win against Oregon contrary to expectations, but OSU looks tougher than expected. So I am still at five likely wins, with several other teams possible.

Here are our upcoming opponents in descending probability of a win (based on ESPN's FPI):
Cal (79%)
@WSU (66%)
UW (57%)
Utah (53%)
ND (40%)
@OSU (37%)
ASU (27%)

If you buy those percentages, that gives us two likely-ish wins (>60%), two toss-ups (40 - 60%), and two likely-ish loss (<40%), though I am not sure I buy ND at 40%. There's a path to 7 (maybe 8) wins in there; beyond is looking like drawing an inside straight. There is also a nightmare scenario where we lose 6 out of our last 7 games. I think my previous prediction of 5-7 is now looking a bit pessimistic, but not by much. I wouldn't revise my prediction beyond 6 wins, though there are very broad confidence intervals.

BC

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - CardinalSagehen - 10-05-2021

(10-05-2021, 06:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(10-05-2021, 02:46 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Thought people penciled UW in the win column after they lost opener at home to Montana and then got blown out by Michigan in Game 2. But maybe I'm mistaken. Anyway, Stanford can win that game, but it won't be easy, as it might be against an overmatched opponent.

I don't know that we can pencil in any wins, though if we don't beat WSU and Cal, it is hard to see how we would have any chance at a winning season. Mentally, I put UW into the category of "a team we might be able to get our sixth win against". We got the win against Oregon contrary to expectations, but OSU looks tougher than expected. So I am still at five likely wins, with several other teams possible.

Here are our upcoming opponents in descending probability of a win (based on ESPN's FPI):

Cal (79%)

@WSU (66%)

UW (57%)

Utah (53%)

ND (40%)

@OSU (37%)

ASU (27%)

If you buy those percentages, that gives us two likely-ish wins (>60%), two toss-ups (40 - 60%), and two likely-ish loss (<40%), though I am not sure I buy ND at 40%. There's a path to 7 (maybe 8) wins in there; beyond is looking like drawing an inside straight. There is also a nightmare scenario where we lose 6 out of our last 7 games. I think my previous prediction of 5-7 is now looking a bit pessimistic, but not by much. I wouldn't revise my prediction beyond 6 wins, though there are very broad confidence intervals.

BC

FPI's current prediction for us is 6.7-5.5. (The footnote says W-L "... may not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation." Conference championship game, anyone?) FPI currently gives us an 82% chance of winning 6 games, a 15% chance of winning the North, and a 6% chance of winning the Conference. But FPI currently ranks us 8th in the Pac-12, behind teams like USC, Utah, and UW.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/9

I feel we're being disrespected by FPI, to the extent that an algorithm can be disrespectful. The fact that we have a money QB that is cool in the pocket is an enormous X Factor. Barring injuries in the trenches or to McKee, I see 7-8 wins for us now.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - Papa John - 10-06-2021

(10-05-2021, 05:22 AM)Phogge Wrote: Perhaps but given the choice of Phoenix or Tucson I’d live in Tucson.

Agree, except February through March. Cactus league spring training is a blast. Plus Sedona is a pretty easy day-trip from Phoenix.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - gailtate - 10-06-2021

(10-06-2021, 02:09 PM)Papa John Wrote:
(10-05-2021, 05:22 AM)Phogge Wrote: Perhaps but given the choice of Phoenix or Tucson I’d live in Tucson.

Agree, except February through March. Cactus league spring training is a blast. Plus Sedona is a pretty easy day-trip from Phoenix.

I've spent enough time in both cities to slightly favor Phoenix. Spring Training can't be beat. Still, I would abandon that furnace heat from May through September. Brutal.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - Papa John - 10-06-2021

Couldn't agree more about avoiding the furnace blast. Went to a late June conference with a work buddy in Phoenix a number of years back. We decided we would play tennis outdoors when the temperature dipped below 100. At 11 pm it finally cooled off to 99. Maybe it's because the court was still radiating heat like a Weber grill on high, but we didn't even finish the first set and called it.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - MinnySunDevil - 10-06-2021

(10-05-2021, 08:12 AM)Austroturf Wrote: I also noticed that our former offensive lineman, Henry Hattis, is still on the roster at ASU. It would be nice to have him back. I read an article stating that Hattis chose Stanford over ASU when he graduated from high-school, then decided to give ASU a try after graduating from Stanford. The Covid-shortened season of 2020 gave him a chance to come back for a second "graduate transfer" year. Anyway, it would be valuable to have him in Stanford's current O-line rotation.

As for the enmity between ASU and U of A, I am unfamiliar with the sordid history.

Hattis has been a great addition for ASU. He isn't the best lineman in the world and I don't think he's going to play in the league, but he's slotted in very nicely. He along with a Texas A&M transfer at LT really helped to stabilize an offensive line that was as big of a mess as ASU has ever had in 2019. Unprepared freshmen, including a 17 year old left tackle, were forced to play. Todd Graham in his latter years had just failed to bring in talent at the position. Herm seems to have done a reasonable job getting the position back together and Hattis coming over was a significant part of it. Is he perfect? Is he out there mauling everyone he sees? No, but he's a steady presence that adds a lot of maturity. He's been exactly what a program would hope for in a grad transfer.

I kind of regret, in hindsight, dropping an Arizona dislike bomb on an unrelated forum. Just can't help myself sometimes. Suffice to say the fanbases do not get along, but you're right. There are plenty of lovely people around U of A and Tucson, and the retired community in the area has some wonderful and interesting folks from all over. The big divide is, when you boil it down, the growth of Phoenix. The "little brother" school is becoming the bigger school.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - CardinalSagehen - 10-06-2021

(10-06-2021, 08:58 PM)MinnySunDevil Wrote:
(10-05-2021, 08:12 AM)Austroturf Wrote: As for the enmity between ASU and U of A, I am unfamiliar with the sordid history.

I kind of regret, in hindsight, dropping an Arizona dislike bomb on an unrelated forum. Just can't help myself sometimes. Suffice to say the fanbases do not get along, but you're right. There are plenty of lovely people around U of A and Tucson, and the retired community in the area has some wonderful and interesting folks from all over. The big divide is, when you boil it down, the growth of Phoenix. The "little brother" school is becoming the bigger school.

A few years ago (was it 2019 or 2017?), I happened to be sitting near some ASU parents, fully geared up. On one of their series, the Sun Devils came out in the Wildcat formation, and I commented on it to my son. "That is not the 'Wildcat!'," they interjected. "We call it the 'Sparky,' okay?!" They said it with a smile, though.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - MinnySunDevil - 10-06-2021

(10-06-2021, 09:22 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:
(10-06-2021, 08:58 PM)MinnySunDevil Wrote:
(10-05-2021, 08:12 AM)Austroturf Wrote: As for the enmity between ASU and U of A, I am unfamiliar with the sordid history.

I kind of regret, in hindsight, dropping an Arizona dislike bomb on an unrelated forum. Just can't help myself sometimes. Suffice to say the fanbases do not get along, but you're right. There are plenty of lovely people around U of A and Tucson, and the retired community in the area has some wonderful and interesting folks from all over. The big divide is, when you boil it down, the growth of Phoenix. The "little brother" school is becoming the bigger school.

A few years ago (was it 2019 or 2017?), I happened to be sitting near some ASU parents, fully geared up. On one of their series, the Sun Devils came out in the Wildcat formation, and I commented on it to my son. "That is not the 'Wildcat!'," they interjected. "We call it the 'Sparky,' okay?!" They said it with a smile, though.

With a smile, sure, but they're right. It's some fun petulance, but the formation is most certainly not called the Wildcat in Tempe. It'd be like if you had a Bear or Trojan formation.

Also, your user handle's Carl Sagan vibes gave me a grin. If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch...

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - MinnySunDevil - 10-06-2021

(10-05-2021, 09:04 AM)Mick Wrote: I figured there was quite a rivalry there. I worked for a law firm based in Detroit but with a very significant Phoenix office. The ASU law school is very strong, we had a lot of ASU grads, and the founding partner of the Phoenix office was very tied in with the ASU law school.

The law school has made some great strides over the last few decades. I knew some very sharp people that went straight from undergrad to the law school. ASU fans and alums kind of expect to hear academic smack talk, so it's nice to hear that from an outside source.

There's always a huffy moment where I/we want to start making corrections. The old Ned Flanders joke isn't wrong in terms of undergraduate admission standards, but there are some strong points. By design, it really can't be selective for general admission anyway. It is, by my understanding, the only 4 year university in the entire Phoenix area aside from For Profits and a few tiny religious schools. 5 million people, 1 school. Graduate level is a different story.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - Phogge - 10-06-2021

Actually I prefer Flag and Bisbee.

And the only real Sparky was the elf who had a radio show with Big John but only Bobbbb and maybe Giants remember him.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - MinnySunDevil - 10-06-2021

(10-06-2021, 10:58 PM)Phogge Wrote: Actually I prefer Flag and Bisbee.

And the only real Sparky was the elf who had a radio show with Big John but only Bobbbb and maybe Giants remember him.

Flagstaff is pretty cool. Skiing in AZ is kind of a trip. Never spent any time in Bisbee. I think my father threatened my mother with buying a small ranch in the area once, presumably as an excuse to get goats and a donkey, but that was about it.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - Austroturf - 10-07-2021

Quote:MinnySunDevil Wrote:
I kind of regret, in hindsight, dropping an Arizona dislike bomb on an unrelated forum. Just can't help myself sometimes. Suffice to say the fanbases do not get along, but you're right. There are plenty of lovely people around U of A and Tucson, and the retired community in the area has some wonderful and interesting folks from all over. The big divide is, when you boil it down, the growth of Phoenix. The "little brother" school is becoming the bigger school.

Yes, this is what I also noticed. Tucson is more laid back, though still sizable for a college town (over 500k, with Pima County over 1M). Tempe, right next to Phoenix, simply exudes more dynamism; and the population of young people is exploding, which also explains some of the recent bluing of the state. It is rather surprising that ASU is the only 4-year state university in the Phoenix area.

RE: Pac-12 Power Ratings after Week 5: Stanford at #3 or #4 - CTcard - 10-07-2021

(10-06-2021, 08:58 PM)MinnySunDevil Wrote: The "little brother" school is becoming the bigger school.

I think that bridge was crossed some time ago.

ASU claims 65,000 undergrads, another 50K+ online students, and 25K graduate students.
UA claims around 36,000 undergrads and 10K graduate students.