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WVB vs Washington St (WIN 3-1) - Printable Version

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RE: WVB vs Washington - martyup - 11-13-2021

I'm not very learned about volleyball, but I wonder how many of our losses would have been wins if we had just eliminated (or greatly reduced) the service errors.  I've heard that a high number of service errors mean that you are being "aggressive" with your serves and that this will result in service aces and/or prevent your opponent from staying "in system."  But I don't see this happening with our serving.  We have low ace numbers and high service errors.  Am I missing something?

RE: WVB vs Washington - BobK - 11-13-2021

Aggressive serving is so the other team can’t make a good pass. An ace is sometimes just luck at this level.
Hambly’s goal is 90% in against Washington it was 86%. At the games we all p and moan at the service errors and yes we almost always have more errors less aces than the other team

RE: WVB vs Washington - ca245 - 11-13-2021

(11-13-2021, 11:13 AM)BobK Wrote:  Aggressive serving is so the other team can’t make a good pass.  An ace is sometimes just luck at this level. 
Hambly’s goal is 90% in against Washington it was 86%.  At the games we all p and moan at the service errors and yes we almost always have more errors less aces than the other team
Again, I agree. I was more distressed about poor serve receptions than missed serves in the UW. Too many poor serve receptions leading to free balls or easily handled roll shots to the other side. Against a well oiled offensive team like UW, that is like giving a point away.
That said, there is a difference between a serve landing just out of bounds (nice try at an "aggressive serve") and a serve sailing ten feet out of bounds (aw, c'mon). Unfortunately there were a few of the latter in the UW match.

RE: WVB vs Washington - oldalum - 11-13-2021

(11-13-2021, 10:30 AM)BobK Wrote:  While I agree with your post mostly but zero depth with 16 players?  Or zero depth after all the injuries and down to 10 on Thursday?
zero quality depth, for whatever combination of reasons at the time.
I remember Hambly saying at the beginning of the season, when everyone except Francis was healthy, that he likes our talent, he anticipates a lot of improvement over the course of the season, but his one caution was that we were very thin.
We need a substitute OH and our best option is our libero?

RE: WVB vs Washington - M T - 11-13-2021

(11-13-2021, 10:48 AM)martyup Wrote:  I'm not very learned about volleyball, but I wonder how many of our losses would have been wins if we had just eliminated (or greatly reduced) the service errors.  I've heard that a high number of service errors mean that you are being "aggressive" with your serves and that this will result in service aces and/or prevent your opponent from staying "in system."  But I don't see this happening with our serving.  We have low ace numbers and high service errors.  Am I missing something?
The Service Error to Ace ratio seemed high. I decided to work through it.

I just looked at the NCAA stats for Stanford WVB and compiled the service aces and errors for Stanford from 2012-13 to 2015-16 versus 2016-17 to 2021-22 (note that while both are 5 years, Hambly's number of sets is fewer because of COVID and the unfinished year).

StanfordOpponent
Coach/YearsSetsAcesSErrsAces/SErrAces/SetSErrs/Setz=0.4z=0.35AcesSErrsAces/SErrAces/SetSErrs/Setz=0.4z=0.35
Dunning 2012-20165996239820.631.041.64-0.030.105419480.570.901.58-0.090.03
Hambly 2016-202248867012320.541.372.52-0.190.014168880.470.851.82-0.22-0.08
Remember, most of the time, the receiving team wins the point.  Unfortunately, the NCAA stats don't have the data on side outs.  So, all we have is aces.  At about 30% more aces per set in the Hambly years, I suspect Stanford is winning more of its serves.

To be more precise, one should also take the service errors and consider the serving team may have won those points.  The Side-Out percentage is the percentage of service receptions that you win. I'll use something related, but not quite the same.  It is almost, but not quite 1 minus the Side Out percentage.

If Stanford typically wins X% of served points that are played (ignoring aces and service errors), and the opponent typically wins Y% of received points (ignoring A & SE), call Z = X+(1-Y)/2 as the expected number of played serves that Stanford wins.   Then Stanford should expect to win about Z% of each serve.  Let z = Z/100 (ie, the fraction, not the %).   A SE is a sure loss of a point, so it costs about z points over the expected value.   Likewise, an Ace is a sure win of a point, so it adds about 1-z points over the expected value.  So, when you figure in the A and SE, in a match, Stanford would get about  A*(1-z)-SE*z points for the serves that are either aces or service errors.  If that number is 0, then the aces and service errors balance out.

If a team were to win exactly half of its played serves (z=0.5), then it would want to have the same number of aces and service errors.  If a team is getting beat often on its played serves, then more aggressive serving is advantageous.  If z=0.33, then the numbers balance if you have twice as many service errors as aces.

However, there is a second order effect.  If the serves that are played cause the receiving team trouble, it will drive Z up.

Per set, Stanford averages about 4 serves that aren't played.  That means there are roughly 20 Stanford serves that are played.  If harder or riskier serves drive Z up by 1 percentage point (say, from 36% to 37%), that works out to a positive change of 20*0.01 = 0.20 points per set.  Obviously, this delta can't be known from stats.

A typical side out percentage is about 60%, (roughly) corresponding to z=0.4. The NCAA doesn't list the sideout percentage.  I found a site that had the stat for the UW game.  Washington's side out % was 65.5, so Stanford's z was about 0.345 (actually 0.382).  Stanford's side out % was 57.7, so Washington's z was about 0.423 (actually 0.411)

As we fans recognize, the team is serving more aggressively this year.  Before accounting for the second order effect, the aces and service errors are costing Stanford about 0.35 points per set if z=0.4 or 0.15 if z=0.35.  If the coach feels the more aggressive serves causes the team's z to increase a couple of percentage points, then he's going to be fine with it.

RE: WVB vs Washington - oldalum - 11-13-2021

that is really interesting, thanks for taking the time to do that analysis.
Of course Hambly has access to much more detailed stats than we do, I'm sure he's all over this.
As I've wondered before, perhaps the more aggressive serving is a response to poorer serve-receive, digs and passing compared to the previous championship teams (I have no data or expertise to back up this speculation). Plummer was so exceptional at out-of-system kills, I would not be surprised at a drop-off in our out-of-system scoring without her.

RE: WVB vs Washington - martyup - 11-13-2021

MT, thank you for the in-depth analysis.  I got a little lost at the end.  So, is your final conclusion that our service errors are only costing us .35 points per set?  If so, does this mean that the aggressive service strategy might be actually keeping us in games or does it mean that it isn't making much of a difference?

RE: WVB vs Washington - M T - 11-13-2021

(11-13-2021, 02:46 PM)martyup Wrote:  MT, thank you for the in-depth analysis.  I got a little lost at the end.  So, is your final conclusion that our service errors are only costing us .35 points per set?  If so, does this mean that the aggressive service strategy might be actually keeping us in games or does it mean that it isn't making much of a difference?
I'll defer to those that know VB better than I do.

RE: WVB vs Washington - Softball Fan - 11-13-2021

I appreciate and enjoy the conversation about this WVB team even if I might be on a slightly different mindset at the moment about the results of the coaching.  For me, a volleyball junkie, any conversation about WVB on this website is a good conversation.

I want to see what happens next year.  Hopefully next season will make me completely forget about this season.  After tonight there are four more matches, all on the road.  For whatever reason it seems tougher for WVB teams than most other sports to win on the road.  There's a definite chance Stanford will not make the NCAA tournament which would be really disappointing.

Go Card.  Beat the Cougars.

RE: WVB vs Washington - johnbar - 11-13-2021

MT, I appreciate your statistical analysis.
I will want to abosrb it in more detail later.

RE: WVB vs Washington - M T - 11-13-2021

The Washington State game is supposed to be on LiveStream from Stanford.  The PAC-12 network site lists it, but when you click on it, it says "Oklahoma State vs Stanford" and clicking Play doesn't get anything.

Sigh...
 At least the live stats are going.

Ah, now it is working.

RE: WVB vs Washington - BostonCard - 11-13-2021

We take the first set 25-19.

BC

RE: WVB vs Washington - Softball Fan - 11-13-2021

No new thread?  How will anyone know this thread has the WSU match?

For brief periods of time this team can actually look very good.  It's impossible to figure them out.

I'm not getting excited yet.  I keep asking myself when are they going to go into mistake mode.
Second set:  Stanford goes into full mistake mode.

RE: WVB vs Washington St (ON NOW) - martyup - 11-13-2021

I changed the title of the thread so people know there is a match ongoing.

I tuned in and it was 3-3 in the second set.  We promptly gave up 4 in a row to go down 3-7.

RE: WVB vs Washington St (ON NOW) - CompSci87 - 11-13-2021

Miner and Oglivie collide, Miner gets up very slowly and goes to the locker room.  Uggggggh.

RE: WVB vs Washington St (ON NOW) - Softball Fan - 11-13-2021

Miner injured.  This could be a repeat of the football game.

RE: WVB vs Washington St (ON NOW) - CompSci87 - 11-13-2021

Xu is in a boot, Tufuga has already been used as a DS. Tufuga is setting when she's in.

Okay, actually Tufuga had been serving for Cambell (a middle), and now she's staying in, so no Campbell, and a strange rotation.

The team stayed feisty and kept the 2nd set somewhat close, losing 25-20. Miner not back out in the huddle between sets. I assume she won't be back. At least they can have a more normal rotation in set 3.

RE: WVB vs Washington St (ON NOW) - Softball Fan - 11-13-2021

Hambly completed confused about the lineup positions of his team on the court.  First time I've seen that at the DI level.
Second set:  Are miracles possible?  WSU helping out.

RE: WVB vs Washington St (ON NOW) - martyup - 11-13-2021

We lose the second set 20-25.  I hope Miner can come back in the 3rd.

RE: WVB vs Washington St (ON NOW) - 76lsjumb - 11-13-2021

(11-13-2021, 10:06 PM)martyup Wrote:  We lose the second set 20-25.  I hope Miner can come back in the 3rd.

Hasn’t come back out of the locker room