Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2022 thread

Outside Topic Giants/Niners 2022 thread - Printable Version

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RE: lex24 - Mick - 01-03-2022

(01-03-2022, 11:34 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-03-2022, 09:57 PM)lex24 Wrote:
(01-03-2022, 05:12 PM)DC 86 Wrote:
(01-03-2022, 02:12 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Niners are 5.5 point underdogs, and New Orleans is a 4.5 point favorite.

Historically, that translates to a 31% chance of winning for the Niners and a 67% chance of winning for New Orleans. Thus, the chance of a Niner win or a New Orleans tie or loss is 60%. So a bit better than your subjective feeling.

BC

The 49ers not making the playoffs requires both the Rams winning (69% chance) and Saints winning (67% chance).

So isn't the likelihood of the 49ers making the playoffs [1 - (0.69 x 0.67)] which equals 53.77% ?

Way too advanced math for me…..

Really impressive calculations and analysis from a Stanford board. Nerd Nation? What a hoot!

Interesting that the 49ers have just a 31% chance of beating an opponent that they beat 31-10 earlier in the season and the Saints are favored over a team to whom they lost 27-25 earlier in the season.

lex24 - lex24 - 01-05-2022

Hard to see Niners be acting Rams right now.

RE: lex24 - cardcrimson - 01-05-2022

(01-05-2022, 06:31 PM)lex24 Wrote: Hard to see Niners be acting Rams right now.

beating?

RE: lex24 - Phogge - 01-05-2022

(01-05-2022, 06:58 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-05-2022, 06:31 PM)lex24 Wrote: Hard to see Niners be acting Rams right now.

beating?

If they be acting Rams they would need costumes. Is an acting Ram like an acting Mayor or Guv?

lex24 - lex24 - 01-06-2022

(01-05-2022, 07:26 PM)Phogge Wrote:
(01-05-2022, 06:58 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-05-2022, 06:31 PM)lex24 Wrote: Hard to see Niners be acting Rams right now.

beating?

If they be acting Rams they would need costumes. Is an acting Ram like an acting Mayor or Guv?

Wow. Don’t know how autocorrect turns beating into “be acting.” Course, I should read what I post….

RE: lex24 - cardcrimson - 01-06-2022

(01-06-2022, 12:51 AM)lex24 Wrote:
(01-05-2022, 07:26 PM)Phogge Wrote:
(01-05-2022, 06:58 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-05-2022, 06:31 PM)lex24 Wrote: Hard to see Niners be acting Rams right now.

beating?

If they be acting Rams they would need costumes. Is an acting Ram like an acting Mayor or Guv?

Course, I should read what I post….

Why? Very few others do. . . . ;-)

lex24 - lex24 - 01-06-2022

(01-06-2022, 09:49 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-06-2022, 12:51 AM)lex24 Wrote:
(01-05-2022, 07:26 PM)Phogge Wrote:
(01-05-2022, 06:58 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(01-05-2022, 06:31 PM)lex24 Wrote: Hard to see Niners be acting Rams right now.

beating?

If they be acting Rams they would need costumes. Is an acting Ram like an acting Mayor or Guv?

Course, I should read what I post….

Why? Very few others do. . . . ;-)

You are welcome. I teed that one up perfectly…..:)

lex24 - lex24 - 01-07-2022

Bowden in the Athletic asked fans to submit possible trades. Mine was:

Duggar, Hjelle, Gregory Santos and Hunter Bishop for Ketel Marte and Bumgarner.

Probably not enough to get Marte. Who is dynamic and would be everyday CF (only issue is his remaining healthy). But Duggars bat probably plays a little better in Arizona, Hjelle is a potential back end starter Bishop a decent prospect.Santos to me would be the most difficult to trade. Big time stuff.

Adding Bumgarner is essentially taking on his contract. A plus for Arizona. But something the Giants can easily do. He had a very strange year. At times very good at times horrid. Staff might help him and pitching at Oracle would help a bit. At least you get a back end left handed starter that can give you innings. Maybe he pitches more consistently.

Marte is under a very team friendly contract for three years.

In any event, it wont happen. But I’d love to somehow get Marte.

RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 01-07-2022

(01-07-2022, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Bowden in the Athletic asked fans to submit possible trades. Mine was:

Duggar, Hjelle, Gregory Santos and Hunter Bishop for Ketel Marte and Bumgarner.

Probably not enough to get Marte. Who is dynamic and would be everyday CF (only issue is his remaining healthy). But Duggars bat probably plays a little better in Arizona, Hjelle is a potential back end starter Bishop a decent prospect.Santos to me would be the most difficult to trade. Big time stuff.

Adding Bumgarner is essentially taking on his contract. A plus for Arizona. But something the Giants can easily do. He had a very strange year. At times very good at times horrid. Staff might help him and pitching at Oracle would help a bit. At least you get a back end left handed starter that can give you innings. Maybe he pitches more consistently.

Marte is under a very team friendly contract for three years.

In any event, it wont happen. But I’d love to somehow get Marte.

Ketel Marte would be a great addition to the Giants (or any MLB team), I think mlb.com or someone ranked him as the game's top trade asset given his ability, age, versatility and contract (one year left with two years of team options, totaling only $30 million if both options are exercised).

There are a lot of interested teams and I think it will be extremely hard for SF to get him. Arizona turned down a number of strong offers at the trade deadline last year and is only moving him for a major package.

But specifically, the Giants' problem is that in addition to highly rated prospects (which SF has) the Diamondbacks want young, starting caliber, cost controlled players (which SF doesn't have).

SF's only projected starting position player under the age of 30 is indeed Duggar (but he's 28, only one month younger than Marte). Arizona is looking for players who will be hitting their peak when their rebuild comes together, meaning players who are 23-25 now. In three years when the Diamondbacks might again be contenders Duggar will be 31. Literally the only SF player who absolutely fits the profile and who would interest Arizona would be Logan Webb, but surely that's a nonstarter for SF.

One final note: Marte has become a great hitter but he's a terrible defensive centerfielder. His best position by far is second base, so if somehow SF were to acquire him I think that would where he would play most of the time.

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 01-07-2022

Garrapolo for Mike Trout.

lex24 - lex24 - 01-07-2022

(01-07-2022, 05:27 PM)Phogge Wrote: Garrapolo for Mike Trout.

Or Tim Salmon. Too bad Mike Bass never played for the Angels….

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - Phogge - 01-08-2022

Yeah but Dick Bass did play for the Rams.

RE: lex24 - Giants - 01-08-2022

(01-07-2022, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Bowden in the Athletic asked fans to submit possible trades. Mine was:

Duggar, Hjelle, Gregory Santos and Hunter Bishop for Ketel Marte and Bumgarner.

Probably not enough to get Marte. Who is dynamic and would be everyday CF (only issue is his remaining healthy). But Duggars bat probably plays a little better in Arizona, Hjelle is a potential back end starter Bishop a decent prospect.Santos to me would be the most difficult to trade. Big time stuff.

Adding Bumgarner is essentially taking on his contract. A plus for Arizona. But something the Giants can easily do. He had a very strange year. At times very good at times horrid. Staff might help him and pitching at Oracle would help a bit. At least you get a back end left handed starter that can give you innings. Maybe he pitches more consistently.

Marte is under a very team friendly contract for three years.

In any event, it wont happen. But I’d love to somehow get Marte.

I would not consider trading Santos or Bishop for Marte. Both of them have the potential to become significant contributors at the major league level. Heck, the thought of dealing Bishop prompted the migraine of Reynolds for McCutchen to recur. Hjelle is a back of the rotation prospect. I would deal him but only as part of a package that would bring a solid right handed power hitting LF.

If I am Zaidi and AZ offered the trade you suggested, I would politely say, no thank you…..

lex24 - lex24 - 01-08-2022

(01-08-2022, 12:09 PM)Giants Wrote:
(01-07-2022, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Bowden in the Athletic asked fans to submit possible trades. Mine was:

Duggar, Hjelle, Gregory Santos and Hunter Bishop for Ketel Marte and Bumgarner.

Probably not enough to get Marte. Who is dynamic and would be everyday CF (only issue is his remaining healthy). But Duggars bat probably plays a little better in Arizona, Hjelle is a potential back end starter Bishop a decent prospect.Santos to me would be the most difficult to trade. Big time stuff.

Adding Bumgarner is essentially taking on his contract. A plus for Arizona. But something the Giants can easily do. He had a very strange year. At times very good at times horrid. Staff might help him and pitching at Oracle would help a bit. At least you get a back end left handed starter that can give you innings. Maybe he pitches more consistently.

Marte is under a very team friendly contract for three years.

In any event, it wont happen. But I’d love to somehow get Marte.

I would not consider trading Santos or Bishop for Marte. Both of them have the potential to become significant contributors at the major league level. Heck, the thought of dealing Bishop prompted the migraine of Reynolds for McCutchen to recur. Hjelle is a back of the rotation prospect. I would deal him but only as part of a package that would bring a solid right handed power hitting LF.

If I am Zaidi and AZ offered the trade you suggested, I would politely say, no thank you…..

Have to be willing to trade prospects. History shows most won’t make it. I’d agree with you if Marte was in his 30’s. (As McCutchen was) But he’s 28. Under 3 years of team control. At a bargain price. Frankly, I dont think AZ would consider the deal.

If they did, I’d jump on it. Maybe one of the prospects becomes a major league contributor. We know Ketel Marte is already an all star caliber player.

The Giants building depth in their farm system should allow them to make deals. That is one of the reasons to build depth. Obviously they aren’t going to trade their very top prospects unless they get a ridiculously ginormous return. But the mid level prospects should be on the table. (According th Melissa Lockhart who covers the farm system for The Athletic - Bishop is #9, Hjelle #15 and Castro #29.) That is one of the ways the Dodgers built their roster. With Zaidi being involved .

RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 01-08-2022

(01-08-2022, 12:09 PM)Giants Wrote: I would not consider trading Santos or Bishop for Marte. Both of them have the potential to become significant contributors at the major league level. Heck, the thought of dealing Bishop prompted the migraine of Reynolds for McCutchen to recur. Hjelle is a back of the rotation prospect. I would deal him but only as part of a package that would bring a solid right handed power hitting LF.

If I am Zaidi and AZ offered the trade you suggested, I would politely say, no thank you…..

No worries then because there is zero chance that Arizona would propose or accept such a weak package. If Arizona was inclined to accept a prospects-only package then you're looking along the lines of at least three of SF's top ten prospects (including at least one in the top five) as well as additional compensation of some sort. According to mlb.com Bishop is the Giants #6 prospect and Santos is #24.

Every trade proposal that has been reported has included at least one (and usually two) young, cost controlled starting position player/s or starting pitcher/s and multiple top-ten prospects. It would be professional malpractice for Zaidi to turn down an offer centered around Bishop and Santos.

lex24 - lex24 - 01-08-2022

(01-08-2022, 01:14 PM)DC 86 Wrote:
(01-08-2022, 12:09 PM)Giants Wrote: I would not consider trading Santos or Bishop for Marte. Both of them have the potential to become significant contributors at the major league level. Heck, the thought of dealing Bishop prompted the migraine of Reynolds for McCutchen to recur. Hjelle is a back of the rotation prospect. I would deal him but only as part of a package that would bring a solid right handed power hitting LF.

If I am Zaidi and AZ offered the trade you suggested, I would politely say, no thank you…..

No worries then because there is zero chance that Arizona would propose or accept such a weak package. If Arizona was inclined to accept a prospects-only package then you're looking along the lines of at least three of SF's top ten prospects (including at least one in the top five) as well as additional compensation of some sort. According to mlb.com Bishop is the Giants #6 prospect and Santos is #24.

Every trade proposal that has been reported has included at least one (and usually two) young, cost controlled starting position player/s or starting pitcher/s and multiple top-ten prospects. It would be professional malpractice for Zaidi to turn down an offer centered around Bishop and Santos.

Agree it’s not enough. As I said initially. I do think taking on Bumgarner’s salary would be another plus for AZ. But Marte is in high demand. So they will get a stronger package than my hypothetical.

Giants don’t have the young cost controlled starters to dangle. Maybe Wade, but he’s 28. And I suspect there are questions as to whether he can repeat what he did last year.

RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 01-08-2022

(01-08-2022, 01:21 PM)lex24 Wrote: I do think taking on Bumgarner’s salary would be another plus for AZ. But Marte is in high demand. So they will get a stronger package than my hypothetical.

Giants don’t have the young cost controlled starters to dangle. Maybe Wade., but he’s 28. But I suspect there are questions as to whether he can repeat what he did last year.

Right, that's why I said "additional compensation", such as your example of taking on Bumgarner's salary. [They could also trade CBT picks or international bonus pool money.] You're right that SF should be using its financial muscle to obtain talent by taking on bad contracts, unfortunately in this case Bumgarner is the only Diamondback making over $10 mm/year. Although the funny thing is that while Bumgarner is overpaid ($20 million AAV on the remaining three years of his contract) in this overheated starting pitcher market it's far from being all dead money. The Dodgers recently signed Andrew Heaney for $8.5 million. So taking on Bumgarner's contract does have significant value (perhaps $30 million+ net vs market) but a starter who gives you 150 innings with a 4.50 ERA is far from useless in today's world.

The Giants just don't match up well with Arizona from a trade perspective. Bart is the prospect closest to being a legitimate MLB starter but catcher is one of Arizona's stronger positions. The Giants don't have any starting pitcher prospects who are close to the majors. If the Giants proposed an all-prospects package it would presumably have to include multiple players along the likes of Matos, Ramos, and Kyle Harrison.

Taking on Bumgarner's contract is something the Giants can do which someone like the Marlins aren't going to do, so 100% agreement that that is the something that SF should include in any opening proposal.

RE: lex24 - Giants - 01-08-2022

(01-08-2022, 01:03 PM)lex24 Wrote:
(01-08-2022, 12:09 PM)Giants Wrote:
(01-07-2022, 08:10 AM)lex24 Wrote: Bowden in the Athletic asked fans to submit possible trades. Mine was:

Duggar, Hjelle, Gregory Santos and Hunter Bishop for Ketel Marte and Bumgarner.

Probably not enough to get Marte. Who is dynamic and would be everyday CF (only issue is his remaining healthy). But Duggars bat probably plays a little better in Arizona, Hjelle is a potential back end starter Bishop a decent prospect.Santos to me would be the most difficult to trade. Big time stuff.

Adding Bumgarner is essentially taking on his contract. A plus for Arizona. But something the Giants can easily do. He had a very strange year. At times very good at times horrid. Staff might help him and pitching at Oracle would help a bit. At least you get a back end left handed starter that can give you innings. Maybe he pitches more consistently.

Marte is under a very team friendly contract for three years.

In any event, it wont happen. But I’d love to somehow get Marte.

I would not consider trading Santos or Bishop for Marte. Both of them have the potential to become significant contributors at the major league level. Heck, the thought of dealing Bishop prompted the migraine of Reynolds for McCutchen to recur. Hjelle is a back of the rotation prospect. I would deal him but only as part of a package that would bring a solid right handed power hitting LF.

If I am Zaidi and AZ offered the trade you suggested, I would politely say, no thank you…..

Have to be willing to trade prospects. History shows most won’t make it. I’d agree with you if Marte was in his 30’s. (As McCutchen was) But he’s 28. Under 3 years of team control. At a bargain price. Frankly, I dont think AZ would consider the deal.

If they did, I’d jump on it. Maybe one of the prospects becomes a major league contributor. We know Ketel Marte is already an all star caliber player.

The Giants building depth in their farm system should allow them to make deals. That is one of the reasons to build depth. Obviously they aren’t going to trade their very top prospects unless they get a ridiculously ginormous return. But the mid level prospects should be on the table. (According th Melissa Lockhart who covers the farm system for The Athletic - Bishop is #9, Hjelle #15 and Castro #29.) That is one of the ways the Dodgers built their roster. With Zaidi being involved .

Lockhart is my primary source for information regarding the farm system. Her reporting is very thorough. That is why I have Bishop in the “untouchable unless absolutely overwhelmed by an offer” category.

I do expect SF to secure a back end starter and a power hitting LF* once baseball resumes.

* I am assuming that Bryant will not return

RE: Giants/Niners 2021 thread - BobK - 01-08-2022

One of my favorite fan trades. Giants fan says trade Mike Sadak for Ricky Henderson. Or some other back up catcher.

RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 01-08-2022

(01-08-2022, 02:46 PM)Giants Wrote: Lockhart is my primary source for information regarding the farm system. Her reporting is very thorough. That is why I have Bishop in the “untouchable unless absolutely overwhelmed by an offer” category.

So if she ranks Bishop #9 that means that SF has at least nine minor league players considered "untouchable unless absolutely overwhelmed by an offer" ?