Women's Tennis 2024 - Printable Version

Women's Tennis 2024 - Printable Version

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RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - Sakibomb25 - 01-19-2024

(01-19-2024, 01:12 PM)ColoradoTree Wrote: And unsurprisingly, we saw some lineup adjustments on the way to a 7-0 win.

* The senior class cracked the lineup, with Houghton rolling easily at the #6 spot in singles and teaming up with Geller for a win on Court 3 of doubles.
* Blake and Hui took the day off, and Yepifanova vaulted Ma to play 1, keeping Ma at 2, sliding Blokhina up to 3 and Xu to 4, Eleana Yu made her dual season debut at 5, and Houghton played 6.
* So based on that, we can determine that after our top 3 in whatever order, the pecking order is basically Blokhina > Hui > Xu > Yu > Houghton, and presumably Geller after that, followed by Okpara and Sun.
* With Blake and Hui out, Ma/Yepifanova slid up to the #1 doubles line, and Blokhina partnered with Xu on Court 2, leaving room for the senior duo on Court 3.
* Not much to say when Stanford dominates a team they're expected to dominate. But it can be hard to keep your foot on the gas against an overmatched opponent, and for the most part, we didn't do that. Ma, Yu, and Houghton only lost one game apiece, and Xu lost just two, while Yepifanova had a solid, but competitive, win, dropping six games in her two sets.
* But a win that dominant also makes it stand out where we struggled, and that leads us to Blokhina, who actually lost her second set (and by a lopsided 6-2 scoreline, too) before coming back and dominating the third set match tiebreaker, 10-3. Hard to know what was going on there without watching the match, but while it's not a great sign that she was pushed to a third by a lesser player, anytime you struggle and manage to come away with a win has some benefits.
* Not sure what the thinking behind Yepifanova vaulting Ma is, but if you think Ma is better against Texas A&M, why change your mind against UC Davis? Maybe it's just a reminder that nobody's lineup position is sacred, or it could be a reaction to how Ma fell to pieces in her third set against A&M, while Yepifanova fought hard in hers. As I've said many times, I think Ma is the superior player, but it's not a of immense proportions margin, and she's much more prone to mental lapses--sometimes she just droops and you can tell she's already beaten--than Yepifanova does. Long term, we're a better team if Ma is tough mentally and playing higher than Yepifanova. But sometimes that seems to be a big if.

Are you surprised that Yu is sitting? I know you were really high on her so I thought she would at least be higher than Xu... Is there much be can take away from this (i.e., Yu and Hui won't be as high impact as we had hoped as the juniors leave the program in two years)?

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-22-2024

No matches this past weekend, and next up is ITA Kick-Off Weekend on January 26-27 here at Taube. We play Colorado first on Friday the 26th at 2:00pm, and assuming we don't have a letdown of catastrophic proportions, we'll then play the winner of Maryland and UNLV for the right to head to National Indoors. None of the other three teams is ranked, as we only have a Top 25 poll for the first part of the season before we have enough data points for the algorithm to spit out a top 50 and 75, but at the end of last season, Maryland was #52, UNLV was #58, and Colorado was #61.

Now, tennis can be weird, and upsets can and do happen. But upsets on this scale really don't. There's just too great a talent gap, and plus, it's on our home courts.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-22-2024

Sakibomb, as for Yu sitting, it's hard to say what it means, especially since it's still pretty early. It's useful to remember that Valencia Xu was a top 10 recruit (and often top 5) recruit in what was a ridiculous year for American girls, with Ma, Yepifanova, Sarah Hamner (South Carolina), Mary Stoiana (A&M), Kylie Collins (Texas, LSU), and others. It was an absurd year. And now Xu has two years of college tennis and physical development under her belt, so it's not a shock for Xu to have held onto a lineup spot.

College tennis is certainly an adjustment, and some folks adapt to it better and more quickly than others. That Yu is currently our #7 doesn't mean that she's a bust, of course. This lineup we have is so, so strong. Ma and Yepifanova are as strong a 1-2 punch as we've had in many years, and Blake has developed into an incredibly solid 3. There's just not much of a chance to displace these folks, you know? As it is, Yu is higher than Houghton and Geller (themselves very highly touted recruits), as well as Sun and Okpara. If you think about next year's roster, it looks like this:

1. Ma (Sr.)
2. Yepifanova (Sr.)
3. Blokhina (Jr.)
4. Hui (So.)
5. Xu (Sr.)
6. Yu (So.)

Playing on Court 6 in that lineup shouldn't mean you've disappointed. (Of course, that means incoming frosh Glozman, who is also outstanding, would be on the bench, which might not be super realistic.) What happens the following year, though, will be interesting, and I would expect to see some reshuffling and no guarantee that Blokhina stays ahead of Hui, Yu, and Glozman.

As to whether I'm surprised? I suppose I am a bit. But it speaks well of Xu that she's responded to the challenge of potentially being the odd woman out and kept a spot. I figured it would be Hui, Yu, and Xu in some order, but it's always hard to predict how specific players do when matched up against others. Maybe Yu might be better against certain competition but she hasn't done as well against Hui and Xu internally, and that's the end of it as far as Lele's concerned. In other words, sure, I'm a little surprised, but I'm not shocked, and I have everlasting faith in Lele.

In any event, we have really enviable depth. We have a #7 that most teams would kill to play in their top 6--and probably pretty high in their top 6. And I don't think that spells doom once our current junior class graduates, either. Melissa Lord and Caroline Lampl started out at 5 and 6, but ended up as dominant mainstays near the top of our lineup. And if, say, Glozman and someone who comes in after her both end up vaulting Yu in that Spring 2026 lineup, then it'll probably mean Yu will be dominant on a lower court, and we'll still be an excellent team.

Man, that sure was a long way of saying "too early to call."

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - terry - 01-22-2024

Thanks for the analysis!

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - Jamesy - 01-22-2024

(01-22-2024, 11:52 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Sakibomb, as for Yu sitting, it's hard to say what it means, especially since it's still pretty early. It's useful to remember that Valencia Xu was a top 10 recruit (and often top 5) recruit in what was a ridiculous year for American girls, with Ma, Yepifanova, Sarah Hamner (South Carolina), Mary Stoiana (A&M), Kylie Collins (Texas, LSU), and others. It was an absurd year. And now Xu has two years of college tennis and physical development under her belt, so it's not a shock for Xu to have held onto a lineup spot.

College tennis is certainly an adjustment, and some folks adapt to it better and more quickly than others. That Yu is currently our #7 doesn't mean that she's a bust, of course. This lineup we have is so, so strong. Ma and Yepifanova are as strong a 1-2 punch as we've had in many years, and Blake has developed into an incredibly solid 3. There's just not much of a chance to displace these folks, you know? As it is, Yu is higher than Houghton and Geller (themselves very highly touted recruits), as well as Sun and Okpara. If you think about next year's roster, it looks like this:

1. Ma (Sr.)
2. Yepifanova (Sr.)
3. Blokhina (Jr.)
4. Hui (So.)
5. Xu (Sr.)
6. Yu (So.)

Playing on Court 6 in that lineup shouldn't mean you've disappointed. (Of course, that means incoming frosh Glozman, who is also outstanding, would be on the bench, which might not be super realistic.) What happens the following year, though, will be interesting, and I would expect to see some reshuffling and no guarantee that Blokhina stays ahead of Hui, Yu, and Glozman.

As to whether I'm surprised? I suppose I am a bit. But it speaks well of Xu that she's responded to the challenge of potentially being the odd woman out and kept a spot. I figured it would be Hui, Yu, and Xu in some order, but it's always hard to predict how specific players do when matched up against others. Maybe Yu might be better against certain competition but she hasn't done as well against Hui and Xu internally, and that's the end of it as far as Lele's concerned. In other words, sure, I'm a little surprised, but I'm not shocked, and I have everlasting faith in Lele.

In any event, we have really enviable depth. We have a #7 that most teams would kill to play in their top 6--and probably pretty high in their top 6. And I don't think that spells doom once our current junior class graduates, either. Melissa Lord and Caroline Lampl started out at 5 and 6, but ended up as dominant mainstays near the top of our lineup. And if, say, Glozman and someone who comes in after her both end up vaulting Yu in that Spring 2026 lineup, then it'll probably mean Yu will be dominant on a lower court, and we'll still be an excellent team.

Man, that sure was a long way of saying "too early to call."

Thanks for the analysis. I see our most likely path to wins against top teams would be to sweep the bottom courts and win the doubles point. I think that's where we separate ourselves the most though UNC is also very deep.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - Sakibomb25 - 01-22-2024

(01-22-2024, 11:52 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: Sakibomb, as for Yu sitting, it's hard to say what it means, especially since it's still pretty early. It's useful to remember that Valencia Xu was a top 10 recruit (and often top 5) recruit in what was a ridiculous year for American girls, with Ma, Yepifanova, Sarah Hamner (South Carolina), Mary Stoiana (A&M), Kylie Collins (Texas, LSU), and others. It was an absurd year. And now Xu has two years of college tennis and physical development under her belt, so it's not a shock for Xu to have held onto a lineup spot.

College tennis is certainly an adjustment, and some folks adapt to it better and more quickly than others. That Yu is currently our #7 doesn't mean that she's a bust, of course. This lineup we have is so, so strong. Ma and Yepifanova are as strong a 1-2 punch as we've had in many years, and Blake has developed into an incredibly solid 3. There's just not much of a chance to displace these folks, you know? As it is, Yu is higher than Houghton and Geller (themselves very highly touted recruits), as well as Sun and Okpara. If you think about next year's roster, it looks like this:

1. Ma (Sr.)
2. Yepifanova (Sr.)
3. Blokhina (Jr.)
4. Hui (So.)
5. Xu (Sr.)
6. Yu (So.)

Playing on Court 6 in that lineup shouldn't mean you've disappointed. (Of course, that means incoming frosh Glozman, who is also outstanding, would be on the bench, which might not be super realistic.) What happens the following year, though, will be interesting, and I would expect to see some reshuffling and no guarantee that Blokhina stays ahead of Hui, Yu, and Glozman.

As to whether I'm surprised? I suppose I am a bit. But it speaks well of Xu that she's responded to the challenge of potentially being the odd woman out and kept a spot. I figured it would be Hui, Yu, and Xu in some order, but it's always hard to predict how specific players do when matched up against others. Maybe Yu might be better against certain competition but she hasn't done as well against Hui and Xu internally, and that's the end of it as far as Lele's concerned. In other words, sure, I'm a little surprised, but I'm not shocked, and I have everlasting faith in Lele.

In any event, we have really enviable depth. We have a #7 that most teams would kill to play in their top 6--and probably pretty high in their top 6. And I don't think that spells doom once our current junior class graduates, either. Melissa Lord and Caroline Lampl started out at 5 and 6, but ended up as dominant mainstays near the top of our lineup. And if, say, Glozman and someone who comes in after her both end up vaulting Yu in that Spring 2026 lineup, then it'll probably mean Yu will be dominant on a lower court, and we'll still be an excellent team.

Man, that sure was a long way of saying "too early to call."

No it all makes sense. Plus, it reminds me of Theresa Logar and Anne Yelsey. Logar's freshman and sophomore year she played at the No. 5 and 4 spot and Yelsey didn't even crack the singles line-up her first year and then played mainly at the 4 spot the reset of her Cardinal career. But they were both highly ranked coming in.

I guess I just worry that in many of the high-profile sports, if you don't play your freshman year, you transfer. And I think Yu will be a good player for us down the line... just not this year because of all the depth. Same worry goes with Glozman.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - oldalum - 01-22-2024

(01-22-2024, 05:45 PM)Sakibomb25 Wrote: I guess I just worry that in many of the high-profile sports, if you don't play your freshman year, you transfer.

One way tennis might be somewhat different from other sports in college is that your improvement depends to a greater extent on the quality of your teammates who you are hitting against every day in practice--which is an incentive to stay, get better, and replace the graduating seniors.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-23-2024

(01-22-2024, 09:22 PM)oldalum Wrote:
(01-22-2024, 05:45 PM)Sakibomb25 Wrote: I guess I just worry that in many of the high-profile sports, if you don't play your freshman year, you transfer.
One way tennis might be somewhat different from other sports in college is that your improvement depends to a greater extent on the quality of your teammates who you are hitting against every day in practice--which is an incentive to stay, get better, and replace the graduating seniors.

I think that's right, and Stanford is a pretty special program in this sport, so a lot of the normal rules for dissatisfied freshmen transferring out don't really apply to this particular program.

For Yu, she knows that she's going to have every opportunity to climb the lineup, and she may end up vaulting Xu as the season goes on. And she knows that one of the six ahead of her will be gone next year and three others will be gone season after next. So, the opportunities are there.

Of course, most of our incoming freshmen have it in the back of their heads that they might be able to make it on the pro tour, and the internal competition here is a great gut check. If you can't crack this lineup as a freshman, then that's a pretty good sign that you're not ready yet.

So then the question is, what's going to get you ready? The internal competition, and eventually match play here? Or going to a lesser program, getting lesser coaching, and playing higher in the lineup?

And that's purely from an athletic standpoint. Our women's tennis players seem to have the 40-year decision pretty firmly in mind, and they're usually a pretty academically accomplished group, so they're unlikely to want to make a move.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-24-2024

With no tennis for a couple more days, here's a quick look at the current Top 25 from the rankings that just dropped today. Stanford is still at #2, but it might be a useful exercise to get a sense of the relative strength of the conferences, including our outgoing home, our new one next year, and what might have been in the Big Ten:

1. UNC
2. Stanford
3. Oklahoma State
4. Georgia
5. Michigan
6. Pepperdine
7. N.C. State
8. Florida
9. Texas A&M
10. Texas
11. UVA
12. UCLA
13. Ohio State
14. Auburn
15. Duke
16. Oklahoma
17. Tennessee
18. USC
19. Cal
20. San Diego
21. Miami
22. Washington
23. UCF
24. Wisconsin
25. Vanderbilt

In terms of current conference alignment, that's 6 in the SEC, 5 in the Pac-12, 5 in the ACC, 4 in the Big 12, 3 in the Big Ten, and 2 in the WCC. Fast forward to next year, and it turns into 8 in the SEC (adding Texas and Oklahoma), 7 in the ACC (adding Stanford and Cal), 6 in the Big Ten, just 2 in the Big 12, and 2 in the WCC. Just three major tennis conferences left, and frankly, the Big Ten could've barely been considered a major tennis conference before the infusion of two perennially solid programs in USC/UCLA, plus a third decent one in UW.

The Pac-12 teams leaving for the Big 12, by contrast, are mostly lesser tennis programs. ASU is the cream of that crop, and they've got potential to join Oklahoma State as the class of what is now basically a mid-major tennis league. I think that at this point, Oklahoma State has enough cachet as a program that it will remain relevant nationally even with the two tentpole programs of the Big 12 leaving, because the coach there is well known and should continue to bring in players who want him to help develop them. UCF should be good because of the practice facilities and USTA relationship. And Arizona should really be a much better program than it has been, but the college decision for top prospects is heavily influenced by coaching, and the Wildcats' head coach isn't quite as established, so we'll see if they can grow to what they really should be.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-26-2024

ITA Kick-Off Weekend starts today! We play Colorado at 2pm after Maryland and UNLV play at 11am, and assuming a pit hasn't opened and swallowed Taube whole, we'll play the Maryland/UNLV winner tomorrow at 2pm.

First up, the Buffs (1-0, 0-0 Pac-12). They were pretty middling last year, finishing 13-13 with a 2-8 conference record. But in that are some glimmers of hope for how they could potentially pull something off. CU's #4 (Ana El Sayed) beat Blokhina last year to keep Stanford's final score to 6-1, but that comes with a big grain of salt, as Blokhina retired due to injury. They lost just 4-3 to Cal after getting singles wins on Courts 1 (Balzert over Giavara), 4 (El Sayed over Viller Moeller), and 6 (Hayes over Brown), while they were on the wrong side of a 7-5 third-set scoreline on Court 3 that would've swung it the other way. They beat WSU 5-2 despite losing doubles, getting wins on 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6. And they upset a ranked UW team 4-3 behind three-set wins from Balzert on 1, Stanojevic on 3, El Sayed on 4, and Tokac on 5. But Balzert is gone now.

They are 1-0 after a 7-0 thrashing of UC Riverside that saw El Sayed at the top of the lineup, but, um, UC Riverside is woeful (they were 2-16 last year, and their two wins came against, I kid you not, "Westmont" and "Hope International," which the Internet tells me are technically real schools but you can't believe everything you read).

(I may live in Colorado, but I'm no Buffs fan--I used to be mildly pleased when they'd do well in a particular sport because it made people I like happy, but after they destroyed the hope of the rest of the then-Pac-10 staying together, I'm happy to root against them like the villains they are. Not entirely fair to the women's tennis program, I recognize, but who says sports fandom is rational?)

Anyway, the Buffs are not a credible threat here, absent something catastrophic happening, so hopefully it's a nice tune-up that doesn't tax our players too much.

Looking ahead to Maryland and UNLV, both teams should present more of a challenge. Maryland went 17-9 last year, 5-6 in the Big Ten, but were ranked #52 at the end of the season and weren't really that close to the bubble of making the tournament, but that margins at that point are fine and a couple matches going the other way could've turned it for them. UNLV was 19-4 and 8-2 in the Mountain West on the road to winning that championship and punching a ticket to NCAAs, but they ran into then-#24 USC in the first round, who won 4-0 behind doubles and three lopsided singles matches at Courts 1 (Sieg over Helgesson), 2 (Cayetano over Kovacs), and 4 (Cheong over Hu), while Snow Han was a game away from clinching herself on Court 3 over Salsa Aher. To UNLV's credit, they were about to force third sets on 5 (Coco Zhao) and 6 (Aura Fang). Maryland is 2-0 on the year with victories over Georgetown and GW, while this will be UNLV's first match of the year.

How to watch: https://gostanford.com/sports/2022/3/17/womens-tennis-live-video-stats

Sometimes Kick-Off Weekend brings greater challenges, but at last spring's draft (https://slam.tennis/ita/draft/2024/ncaaw), you can see that teams tried hard to avoid coming here. We were the last team to catch a #2 seed and the last to catch a #3 seed, suggesting teams didn't want to come out west for nothing. (As a reminder, for the Kick-Off Weekend draft, the fifteen host teams are selected by season-ending ranking order, and then one by one, the teams next up in the rankings get to pick where they go. So, you can see that the tennis world felt like they stood a better chance of picking off #8 Iowa State, #10 Ohio State, and #14 Tennessee than against teams like us, UNC, Georgia, and A&M. Lots of factors at play for where teams decide to go, and certainly travel is one of them (e.g., after the potentially winnable regions were all booked up, #40 Charlotte probably sighed and figured staying close to home in Chapel Hill was a better overall decision than heading across the country).

As a reminder, by winning two matches at Kick-Off Weekend, teams book a spot at the National Team Indoor Championship, or Indoor Nationals, which this year is hosted by UW on February 9-12, so the Huskies are automatically in the field while the other fifteen teams have to win their way there.

I usually like to look at Pac-12 prospects this weekend for two reasons--(1) a rising tide lifts all boats, as I want the Pac-12 teams to do well against national competition so our wins over--or losses to--them make us look better; and (2) a vague sense of conference pride. With the latter reason falling by the wayside, I suppose we're left with the former.

* Oregon is the 4th seed at UNC. They'll get absolutely smoked, and they'll probably be the underdog against the Charlotte-Kentucky loser.
* Arizona is the 3rd seed at the UGA region, playing South Carolina in the first round. Arizona has a shot at an upset over South Carolina, but not over UGA.
* Utah is the 4th seed at Michigan. They'll lose handily.
* UCLA is the 2nd seed at Ames, IA, with a first round match against Oklahoma State (who was ranked #19 at the end of last year but is ranked #3 right now after beating the two best teams in the Big Ten in Michigan and Ohio State to start the year). They could absolutely win, and if so, they'd be favored over Iowa State in the final, but the Pokes are a tough, tough test.
* ASU is the 3rd seed in Columbus, OH, playing Kansas first. Toss-up of a match, and they'd have a decent chance at an upset in the next match if they can pull it off.
* Cal is the 2nd seed at Oklahoma, playing Illinois first. A good test and should be an even match, but unclear if Cal has the horsepower to beat Oklahoma and book a spot at Indoor Nationals.
* USC is the 3rd seed in Knoxville and will have a tough time against #21 Miami to start things off, and #17 Tennessee will presumably be waiting in the wings, but USC probably has the best path to Indoor Nationals for a Pac-12 team other than Stanford and hosts UW.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-26-2024

While the match hasn't started yet, the lineups have been posted on the live scoring page, and they show the same lineup as we used in the first two matches of the year:

1. Blake v. Aya El Sayed
2. Ma v. Elys Ventura
3. Yepifanova vs. Mila Stanojevic
4. Blokhina vs. Pia Rebec
5. Hui vs. Carri Hays
6. Xu vs. Ellen Puzak

Also the same doubles lineup: Blake/Blokhina on Court 1, Ma/Yepifanova on Court 2, and Hui/Xu on court 3.

FYI, the winner gets Maryland, who dropped the doubles point to UNLV but then rattled off four uncompetitive straight-set wins to clinch the match.

As a reminder, here's how we did against the Buffs in the regular season last year:

* We took the doubles point behind straightforward wins from Blake/Blokina at 1 (over Balzert/El Sayed) and Ma/Xu at 3 (over Puzak/Tokac), while Choy/Yepifanova lost 6-3 to Stanojevic/Ventura on 2.
* We won all the singles matches in straight sets except for the Blokhina retirement as noted previously (though since that was to El Sayed, who's now playing #1, that could have been one of the tougher matches of the day anyway).
* Ventura plays Ma today; she lost to Yepifanova last year 6-2, 6-3
* Stanojevic plays Yepifanova today; she lost to Blake last year, 6-3, 6-0
* Hayes plays Hui today; she lost to Choy last year, 6-1, 6-3.

Curious to see how the match goes on Court 1, but there shouldn't be much suspense elsewhere.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - magnus - 01-26-2024

Down 0-1 dropping the doubles pt 2-0.

Currently at #1, we're down 0-2.

Fortunately, the other singles matches are up.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-26-2024

Goodness, what an embarrassment (as to doubles). But yes, we're cruising elsewhere.

Colorado 1, Stanford 0

1. Blake trails 3-6, 0-1
2. Ma leads 6-3, 0-0
3. Yepifanova leads 6-2, 2-1
4. Blokhina leads 6-0, 5-2
5. Hui leads 6-1, 3-2
6. Xu leads 6-1, 3-1

Stanford 3, Colorado 1
1. Blake trails 3-6, 1-2
2. Ma leads 6-3, 3-0
3. Yepifanova leads 6-2, 3-4
4. Blokhina wins 6-0, 6-2
5. Hui wins 6-1, 6-3
6. Xu wins 6-1, 6-1

Full credit to the back half of the lineup, who were expected to dominate and did so, resoundingly.

* Blake broke to get back on serve in the second set
* Ma now leads 4-0 in her second
* Yepifanova is on serve at 4-4 in the second.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-26-2024

And Ma clinches the 4-1 win with a 6-3, 6-1 win of her own as the two remaining matches are abandoned.

Yepifanova was up 6-5 (still on serve) in her second set, and Blake was about to serve, down 3-4.

So, we fell flat in doubles on Courts 2 and 3 with 6-2 and 6-3 losses, while Blake/Blokhina led when the doubles point was clinched. But then we got four pretty lopsided singles wins, Blake faced some adversity but was battling, and Yepifanova was struggling to finish off a weaker player. I'm not thrilled, mind you, but if you're going to have some hiccups, at least they happened when we still won.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - terry - 01-26-2024

Thanks for the report!

It's no surprise that Stanford dominated at #4, #5, and #6. That's where our superior depth should show up against most opponents. And a nice job by Ma at #2.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-29-2024

Stanford brought a better level of intensity against Maryland than against Colorado, and they won handily.

In doubles, our bottom two courts bounced back from disappointment against Colorado with dominating wins--6-0 from Ma/Yepifanova on 2 and 6-1 from Hui/Xu on 3. Blake/Blokhina led 4-3 when the doubles point was clinched.

Needing just three singles wins, Stanford got them in a hurry. Stanford won five of six first sets, the only exception being Blake at 1, whose place atop the lineup remains difficult to justify by results and form. But Yepifanova booked the first win, 6-1, 6-0, Hui was next with a 6-3, 6-2 win of her own, and Blokhina clinched with a matching 6-3, 6-2 scoreline soon after. Xu was one game away from clinching the match herself, leading 6-2, 5-2, but Blokhina won that race. Ma had won her first set 6-2 but was tied 3-3 in the second when the match was abandoned, while Blake was tied 2-2 in the second after dropping the first 7-5.

So, a great effort all around, including dominance from line 3-6 in singles, as our depth was just too much for Maryland and we book our place at ITA Indoor Nationals starting on February 9. I think Ma probably would've been fine, but who knows about Blake--she's played four dual matches now, all on Court 1, and while she won a tight one over USD's De Las Heras, she got crushed by A&M's Stoiana and she was losing to unranked players from CU and Maryland when the match got clinched.

I've got lots of confidence in this team overall, to be clear. And Blake over the past few season on Court 3 has given me every reason to believe in her. But Blake at 1? She hasn't demonstrated yet that she belongs there. It's not clear she has the extra gear that Ma and Yepifanova have shown the ability to reach when playing other elite players nationally.

It's early. We're 5-0. I should relax. And I recognize the value that sticking Blake at 1 theoretically brings in terms of making wins on 2 and 3 that much more likely. (But like I've said before, Ma/Yepifanova in some order at 1-2 and then Blake at 3 was also a pretty great combination last year, so I'm not sure that this makes us more likely to win.) But Blake can't keep putting up results like this and expect to keep that top spot.

Anyway, looking around to the rest of the results nationally, Stanford will be joined at National Indoors by #1 UNC, #3 Oklahoma State, #4 Georgia, #5 Michigan, #6 Pepperdine, #7 N.C. State, #8 Florida, #9 Texas A&M, #10 Texas, #11 UVA, #13 Ohio State, #14 Auburn, #18 USC, and #19 Cal. Lots of chalk.

But the few upsets came at the hands of the Pac-12:

* Cal took out Oklahoma 4-3 in Norman, so that's a great result for the Bears. Cal took doubles and then split four lopsided singles matches, with Viller Moeller and Ivanov getting crushed on 2 and 3 while Wiersholm and Mushika won on 4 and 5. It came down to a couple of three-setters, with Alsola losing hers on Court 1 while Lan Mi, a transfer from Cornell, clinched it for Cal on Court 6.

* USC beat #21 Miami and #17 Tennessee, and in Knoxville, no less, by matching 4-2 scorelines to advance. After dropping doubles to the Vols, Cayetano evened it up with a win on Court 4 for the only straight-sets result of the match, with all five other singles matches going the distance. International freshman Immi Haddad wpn hers for a 2-1 USC lead, Cheong lost hers to let it get back to 2-2, and Piper put USC one win away with a win on 5, and Charney clinched it with a win on Court 2. Snow Han's match on 1 was tied 5-5 in the third when the match was abandoned.

* UCLA didn't advance, but they did push #3 Oklahoma State to the limit, losing 4-3. And they certainly had their chances, as Oklahoma State needed to win 3 three-setters to pull it off, and they did so by 6-4, 6-4, and 7-6 scorelines in those final frames.

* Looking around the rest of the conference-for-now: Arizona got crushed by South Carolina but then whooped USF; Arizona State beat Kansas but got blanked by Ohio State; Utah lost to Michigan and Purdue; and Oregon lost to UNC and Charlotte.

* But the performances from USC, Cal, and UCLA suggest that we'll have a legitimate title race, which is good for Stanford's hopes for hosting a super regional and for their national title hopes--you need to be pushed in the regular season, and the Pac-12 hasn't always provided that. Sure, it makes winning the conference less likely, but that makes it more fun. FYI, we get USC and UCLA at home at the end of March, and we finish the regular season at Cal on April 19.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 01-29-2024

Looking ahead to National Indoors, the top 8 teams by ITA ranking are the seeded teams, while the remaining 8 teams are unseeded and are drawn randomly against the seeded teams, though I believe they take steps to ensure that there are not intra-conference matchups in the first round. So, with the understanding that this could shift somewhat, the seeded teams should look like this:

(1) UNC
(2) Stanford
(3) Oklahoma State
(4) Georgia
(5) Michigan
(6) Pepperdine
(7) N.C. State
(8) Florida

That leaves an "unseeded" pool of #9 A&M, #10 Texas, #11 UVA, #13 Ohio State, #14 Auburn, #18 USC, and #19 Cal, plus host #22 Washington. We won't play USC, Cal, or UW for sure in the first round, and I think--but I'm not sure--that they try and avoid other regular-season rematches in the first round, too, so that might mean we don't face Texas or A&M in that first match. That leaves the likeliest opponents for the first match as UVA, Ohio State, or Auburn--all excellent teams, but also teams where we should have a slight edge. If chalk holds, it would be a rematch in last year's NCAA semifinal in the second round with now-#7 N.C. State (who is 5-0 but who hasn't really been tested yet), and then a semifinal against #3 Oklahoma State, with #1 UNC looming. Sometimes you get some wonky results at Kick-Off Weekend, and there are some teams that are lucky to be there and don't really belong. But this field is all wheat, no chaff (with the possible exception of #22 UW, who hasn't played anyone yet, and who struggled to beat a Memphis team that didn't finish last year ranked in the top 75). So, it's a great opportunity to get a sense of where we stand with the rest of the nation's best at this early point in the season.

I have no idea what will happen, but we can expectation-set a little. An appearance in the final confirms what we currently think--we're absolutely in the mix for a national title, even if UNC is the favorite. And frankly, losing in a competitive semifinal to the #3 team doesn't really change that calculus for me. But losing earlier than that suggests we've still got some work to do, and probably on the mental toughness/finishing matches front. I think we're the 2nd-best team in the country, but I don't know that we are. And if we have a relatively disappointing showing at National Indoors, it doesn't mean that the season is lost, for a few reasons:

(1) Recall that we are an outdoor team, while other teams primarily play indoors or play in relatively equal amounts at their indoor and outdoor facilities, so we're not entirely in our element here. (2) We tend to do worse at this particular tournament than we do at NCAAs, in part due to it being indoors, and in part to the fact that we seem to improve over the course of the season more than other teams do. We often have work to do at this point in the season. (3) We last won this tournament in 2011, and we have won four NCAA titles since that time. (4) Our National Indoors win in 2011 didn't mean we were the best, as we didn't follow it up with a NCAA title. That said, the three previous times we won this tournament, we followed it up with the NCAA team title (our ridiculous run in '04, '05, and '06).

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-01-2024

The ITA rankings dropped yesterday, and while Stanford is still #2 as expected and the top, there are a few shifts elsewhere, mostly favoring the Pac-12:

1. UNC
2. Stanford
3. OK State
4. Georgia
5. Michigan
6. Pepperdine
7. N.C. State
8. Florida
9. Texas A&M
10. Texas
11. UVA
12. Ohio State (+1 spot)
13. UCLA (+5)
14. Auburn
15. Cal (+4)
16. USC (+2)
17. Duke (-2)
18. Oklahoma (-2)
19. Tennessee (-2)
20. San Diego
21. Washington (+1)
22. Vanderbilt (+3)
23. Georgia Tech (up from NR)
24. Arizona State (up from NR)
25. Wisconsin (-1)

So, for the purposes of National Indoors, it'll be 15 of the top 16 teams that qualified, with #13 UCLA the odd one out, and #21 UW being there as host. The seeded teams won't change, though, as the top 8 here are unchanged from last week.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-02-2024

As a reminder, final season rankings are computer-generated, and they're based on total rankings points. It can get complicated, but it boils down to this: wins get you points and losses lose you points, but wins over good teams get you lots of points, and losses to good teams only lose you a little, so as to reward teams who challenge themselves with tough schedules. So, a hard schedule is valuable, and how you do against the top teams will tend to decide your postseason seeding fate. (Here's a quick explainer from the ITA website if you're interested: https://wearecollegetennis.com/ita-rankings/rankings-explained/) And it only counts your ten best wins. With these new rankings in mind, here's a summary of how we've done against those teams, and seeing what our ten best wins might look like as the season progresses.

As of right now, we're 5-0, but only two of those wins really give us any juice--the away win at San Diego and the neutral site win over A&M. We've got three other wins that technically count, but the goal is to push out less valuable wins from the ranking formula and replace them with better wins. And Indoor Nationals is prime hunting ground to get some valuable wins.

* W @ #20 San Diego
* W vs. #9 Texas A&M**
* Indoor Nationals Match 1
* Indoor Nationals Match 2
* Indoor Nationals Match 3
* Possible fourth match if we make the final
* Feb. 23 vs. #10 Texas
* Mar. 8 @ #24 Arizona State
* Mar. 29 vs. #13 UCLA
* Mar. 30 vs. #16 USC
* Apr. 5 vs. #6 Pepperdine
* Apr. 14 @ #21 UW
* Apr. 19 @ #15 Cal

Then it's the Pac-12 tournament, where if we win, it should mean two more wins among that group of UCLA/USC/UW/Cal/ASU--in other words, wins in the teens but probably not not top ten wins. So, it makes it all the more important to have a good showing at Indoor Nationals and handle business at home vs. Texas and Pepperdine to maximize rankings opportunities. But even if we drop 2-3 matches from the list above, we should hopefully still be able to bank 10 ranked wins, which should hopefully keep us in the top 8 for postseason hosting purposes.

** You don't get a bonus for neutral site wins, and the points you get reflect the current ranking of the other team, not their ranking when you played them. So, while A&M was #2 when we beat them, they're #9 now, so the points we get for that win are the points for beating the #9 team. So, since we already have wins over San Diego and A&M, we want those wins to count for more as the season goes on, so we want them to win as much as possible from here on out. And really, we want every team on our schedule to do as well as possible throughout the year, so our wins over them count for more, and our losses to them hurt us less.

RE: Women's Tennis: Spring Season Around the Corner! - ColoradoTree - 02-07-2024

The draws for National Indoors are out, and the ITA seeded the teams differently from the rankings, so the bracket is a little wonky compared to my expectations going in, but it's not far off--it just stinks for us more than anyone else.

Here's the link to the page that has the bracket, live streaming links, and live stats for the matches: https://wearecollegetennis.com/championships/ita-d1-womens-indoor-champs/

So, the rankings mostly match the seedings with a few exceptions: #8 Florida doesn't get a seed, and we drew the short straw in getting them in the first round. #4 Georgia slid down to the 7th seed, which means that if seeds hold, we'd get them in the quarterfinals. The teams sliding up are Michigan (ranked 5th, seeded 4th), Pepperdine (ranked 6th, seeded 5th), and Texas (ranked 10th, seeded 6th). Besides Georgia, the other team sliding down in the seeding is N.C. State (ranked 7th, seeded 8th).

So, we should have drawn someone ranked 9th-15th, but instead, as the #2 seed, we play the #8 team, the toughest matchup (by ranking) of any seeded team. And in the second round, we should be in line to play the #7 team, but instead we get #4. Here's the path if we keep winning:

1st round: #8 Florida
QF: #4 Georgia
SF: #3 Oklahoma State
F: #1 UNC

A bonkers path. And yeah, mildly hosed. But then again, the whole point of this tournament is to play the absolute top teams so you either get valuable wins or your losses barely count against you. And, uh, we got that! So, uh, yay?

Anyway, we play Florida Friday at 9:00am, and if we win, we play the Georgia-Ohio State winner at 12:00pm on Saturday. I'll dig into Florida a little more and post some thoughts sometime before the match.