Outside Topic Covid-19 considerations - Printable Version
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RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - JJJ - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 01:31 PM)oldalum Wrote:(03-10-2020, 10:40 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Totally agree. As I've gotten older, I've found them less funny, but that's not what they are there for.
Yes. Outside of football games, all they do is play music. And listening to them at basketball games this season, maybe as a result of the music lessons I heard the athletic dept. paid for, they sound better and are playing a much greater variety of music.
Agreed. They do sound better, and they spend an awful lot of time and energy to "bring funk to the funkless." Plus the WBB team for one loves them.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - burger - 03-10-2020
The MAC (mid-american conference) basketball tournament will be the first to be played with no fans. Only families of students + players/staff + officials + media will be allowed in.
https://www.cleveland.com/sports/2020/03/mid-american-conference-tournament-in-cleveland-closed-to-public-ticket-refunds-to-be-issued.html
RE: Covid-19 considerations - qwerty49 - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 04:30 PM)JJJ Wrote: Here's another tracker which was produced at least in part by a Stanford '21 student:
https://www.trackcorona.live/
Looks like a nice site. At first glance it appears the “map” often locates cases in the middle of a country or province by default. I suppose this is because further granularity is not available.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Erika - 03-10-2020
There are some really good articles regarding covid-19 in the WAPO (may be behind a pay wall).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavirus-what-matters-isnt-what-you-can-see-what-you-cant/
From the article on exponential growth:
When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t
"There’s an old brain teaser that goes like this: You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lily pad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on.
Now the teaser. “If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?”
The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you’ll barely know the lily pads are there."
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 03:50 PM)Toroso Wrote: Thank you all for the information; this thread has been really interesting and useful.
I have some questions I hope you can help me understand: how are the lockdowns going to work (particularly in Italy)? How long will they be in place for? 1 month? 2 months? More? What events or information would trigger a return to normal movement? What would prevent a second surge after normalizing movement? Would that just result in more of these cycles, and a long string of cancelled/postponed events? It seems we are some time away from a vaccine or treatment, so I am wondering about the effectiveness and strategy behind these approaches.
Thanks.
Yes, these are all very important questions. The most conservative way to go would be to wait two incubation periods (28 days) after the last patient has cleared the virus (as documented by two negative tests). That was the criteria used for declaring the end of the ebola epidemic:
https://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/declaration-ebola-end/en/
However, Ebola was different for two reasons, the case fatality rate was much higher than for Covid-19 (even if you accept that the current estimates are not accurate, they are nowhere near the estimates for Ebola), and secondly there was not a reservoir of undetected Ebola cases. This made the Ebola epidemic at once easier and harder to control. And I don't think it would be practical to enforce a quarantine that long.
China probably provides a bit of a roadmap for the return to normality, as they are slowly allowing increasing activity as the threat recedes. I do wonder what the chances of a second spike are if they get back too quickly. Widespread surveillance can help, but you need the test kits and the capacity to run them.
One step at a time, though. Let's get on top of the current epidemic first, and then worry about how to get back to normal.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 04:44 PM)Erika Wrote: There are some really good articles regarding covid-19 in the WAPO (may be behind a pay wall).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavirus-what-matters-isnt-what-you-can-see-what-you-cant/
From the article on exponential growth:
When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t
"There’s an old brain teaser that goes like this: You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lily pad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on.
Now the teaser. “If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?”
The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you’ll barely know the lily pads are there."
That's the trouble with tribbles. . . .
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - oldalum - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 04:38 PM)JJJ Wrote: Plus the WBB team for one loves them.
Also, WVB
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-10-2020
This is a tragic story:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/03/10/44-dead-iran-drinking-toxic-alcohol-fake-coronavirus-cure/5009761002/
As bad as the coronavirus story is in Iran, to have an additional 44 people die drinking methanol after being duped into believing its a cure is sad.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - akiddoc - 03-10-2020
Looks like we're doubling cases every 2.5 days. That may escalate as test kits dribble and then flow into commercial labs. Quest Labs and Labcorp now have some kits. NorCal organizations such as Kaiser and Sutter planning to start in automobile testing soon.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 05:06 PM)akiddoc Wrote: Looks like we're doubling cases every 2.5 days. That may escalate as test kits dribble and then flow into commercial labs. Quest Labs and Labcorp now have some kits. NorCal organizations such as Kaiser and Sutter planning to start in automobile testing soon.Akiddoc, when you say "we" are you referring to the centers where you work, to NorCal, or just the U.S. generally? Thanks, and stay safe!
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - WBB fan - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 10:25 AM)teejers1 Wrote:(03-10-2020, 09:45 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(03-10-2020, 09:08 AM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote: Stanford is not sending the band to the Pac 12 men's tournament in Las Vegas. The band was present at the women's tournament.
Every cloud has its silver lining. . . .
Women made the P12 finals.
After Stanford loses to Cal in R1, will you reconsider your position re: band presence?
More generally, I smh at the band-bashing. All they do is support the athletic program - across so many sports - like no other group on campus. Certainly at the hoops games, I say we need more of the LSJUMB, not less.
I really like the Band -- they have so much more personality than most other college bands, a very special and uniquely Stanford part of the athletic picture.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Snorlax94 - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 03:50 PM)Toroso Wrote: Thank you all for the information; this thread has been really interesting and useful.Toroso,
I have some questions I hope you can help me understand: how are the lockdowns going to work (particularly in Italy)? How long will they be in place for? 1 month? 2 months? More? What events or information would trigger a return to normal movement? What would prevent a second surge after normalizing movement? Would that just result in more of these cycles, and a long string of cancelled/postponed events? It seems we are some time away from a vaccine or treatment, so I am wondering about the effectiveness and strategy behind these approaches.
Thanks.
First, if you are in Italy, my heart goes out to you and your entire country and hope things can improve as soon as possible.
I think yours is the question for places like Italy on lock down, and I think it's a side of the equation that I think is under-discussed. I expect flare-ups to recur and recur until there is broad vaccination. One lock down can halt a current conflagration, but I would expect the disease will come back. Widespread testing may help contain each flare-up, but as the virus rages across the world, cities and countries will keep getting re-infected.
I do think lock downs will work, and they worked in China. If the problem is that sick people are going out and infecting other people, and some people are sick and don't know it and go out and infect people, if virtually *everyone* is forced to stay at home for 2-3 weeks except for needed workers, food trips and emergencies, that should tremendously decrease the numbers. Let's say there is a town with 50,000 people, 100 people in hospitals, with 200 people sick with symptoms but undiagnosed (some of whom will self-quarantine, some of whom will not) -- and 1000 people who are infected but without symptoms. Normally, many of those 1,200 people would go to concerts, sports events, weddings and infect more people. If you do not permit any events (and close schools) and force most businesses to shutter, those 1,200 people will not infect others. People will stay in their homes until they are better (usually) and no longer infectious. Let's say 90% of the cases are mild. 2-5 weeks later, 1,080 of those 1,200 people may not longer spread the disease, and the 120 who had severe symptoms should be isolated in hospitals. If people strictly follow the quarantine, with a tiny bit of luck, the numbers should be much, much lower after 2-5 weeks.
My concern is that all you've done is hit a "reset" button. The disease is still around. It is still raging in other countries (all over Europe and probably soon in Eastern Europe in Italy's case). So inevitably, Italy will be reinfected again. But the counts will be reduced for now.
This is why I personally think -- and it seems like *everyone* on the Cardboard will disagree with me -- but this is why I think we should be very prudent about shutting down cities. While I think Italy probably should have shut things down earlier, I don't see that it is justifiable in the Bay Area yet. If cities shut things down too early, eventually, people will become cynical and resist future lock downs and it will be harder to enforce them across the country when they are needed.
Eventually, widespread testing will better contain things. And people everywhere hopefully will use this as an opportunity to permanently improve practices like personal hygiene, sanitation, business procedures, social rules, etc., to reduce this and all future viruses. (For example, people *still* apparently think it's OK to go out in the public when they are coughing uncontrollably and clearly sick. Hopefully, the social rules will change.).
A final personal observation -- the data is very, very scant so far, so the real answer to any of this is I don't know and would change any of my positions as new data emerges. But the tiny bit of information that's been revealed about the spread of the sickness has tended to be by older people. Like the super-super spreader in the South Korean church. Or the assisted living center in Washington. Even with the super-spreading in New York, Governor Cuomo in an interview said there were a few instances where hundreds of people convened "for celebrations," and it is at this celebrations that the virus spread. It sounds like weddings, or religious gatherings, and probably not schools or sports. I am not aware of any data from any super spreading cases where children were spreading the disease, which I find remarkable (to my knowledge, no classroom has ever been traced as a source of major transmission). So personally, I lean that governments should be more pro-active about places where the elderly gather -- senior centers, churches, hospitals, weddings (even in my experience, Stanford athletics events), because from what I have seen thus far, not only are the elderly much more likely to experience complications, they are much more likely to be spreaders (which would make sense, as people who are overwhelmed by sickness are more likely to shed virus everywhere). This may also be what has made things so severe in Italy, due to the demographics in that country.
These are my opinions, and probably a minority viewpoint on this bulletin board, but others will express theirs. I hope others will provide their opinion and respond to Tosoro's question.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Mick - 03-10-2020
I think it's about time that Main Street had a bailout. Wall Street already had theirs.
My suggestion: I would create a low-cost government loan program to individuals. Up to one year deferral to commence repayment for all comers, up to three years deferral to those who lose their jobs because of coronavirus.
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - Spiny_Norman - 03-10-2020
Stanford has told the undergrad students not to come back for the start of spring quarter. In situations where this is not a viable option, students have been directed to appropriate resources to address their individual needs.
https://healthalerts.stanford.edu/2020/03/10/spring-quarter-update/
RE: Covid-19 considerations - JJJ - 03-10-2020
Now I don't know if this belongs here or in the athletics thread, but I received this from Howard Wolf today. Sounds like they are saying "don't come back until we say it's ok."
Dear Stanford Alum,
I am reaching out to share an update on Stanford’s response to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) situation.
University update regarding Spring Quarter
In response to the virus threat and supporting efforts to curtail its transmission, this afternoon the University communicated that undergraduate students should not return to campus for the start of the Spring Quarter. In situations where this is not a viable option, students have been directed to appropriate resources to address their individual needs.
University guidance regarding events
Stanford recently shared guidance designed to limit transmission situations. Stanford Alumni Association is following these guidelines for events on and off campus and we have shared them with our club and chapter leaders. As a result, many events in March and April have been cancelled or postponed. We are closely monitoring the COVID-19 situation and will assess future events as they draw nearer. In the meantime, we will continue to offer online content and plan future events for alumni to connect once this situation is behind us.
This is a rapidly evolving situation and healthalerts.stanford.edu is the best source for tracking updates and accessing Stanford resources related to the virus.
In closing, I send you my best wishes for your health and safety.
Sincerely,
null
Howard E. Wolf, ’80
Vice President for Alumni Affairs, Stanford University
President, Stanford Alumni Association
[url=https://go2.stanford.edu/JS31FR0OhB03TGk0I000000][/url]
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-10-2020
If it were up to me, I'd do some version of the following:
-Rapid funding for deployment of ICU equipment, masks, etc. to all eligible treatment centers.
-0% interest bridge loans to eligible renters and/or landlords.
-Stimulus to businesses with under 20-50 employees to keep employees on payroll even if working reduced time or not at all.
-Tax breaks for companies of all sizes to invest in anything that enhances remote work.
-Suspend accumulation of interest on student loans until fall semester and advance first due date for graduating seniors at least 3-6 months.
-Allow tourist-reliant industries with heavy capital investment (cruise ships, airlines, etc.) to massively advance depreciation schedules for tax purposes, which will help to offset declining revenue. (Although unclear how much this matters after all the corporate tax cuts in 2017...).
-Enhanced loan forgiveness for <10-years-out medical and nursing grads who have capacity to work in intensive care and emergency care units. We will need all hands on deck over the next weeks and months.
-Enhance strategic reserve stockpiles of oil and gas to create artificial demand for AMERICAN oil and shale gas.
I'm sure there's much more but that's off the top of my head.
RE: Stanford Athletics Coronavirus Update March 3rd - chrisk - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 06:26 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Stanford has told the undergrad students not to come back for the start of spring quarter. In situations where this is not a viable option, students have been directed to appropriate resources to address their individual needs.They are allowing students to stay on campus during break and into spring if they meet the criteria. Athletic teams are being evaluated on a case by case basis.
https://healthalerts.stanford.edu/2020/03/10/spring-quarter-update/
Ohio has voided all tickets sold to high school championship tournaments in all sports this month.
Each player and coach will be able to designate a very few family members who will be allowed to attend.
The MAC men’s and women’s BB tournaments being held in Cleveland with similar policies and restrictions.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - JJJ - 03-10-2020
And the letter from MTL that Howard linked:
Spring quarter update
March 10, 2020
To our Stanford community,
As you know, the COVID-19 situation continues to evolve rapidly. We communicated with you last Friday about our plans for the rest of winter quarter, but the beginning of spring quarter also is quickly approaching on March 30. We know that many of you need to make plans for academic coursework and travel. With that in mind we have been working to make additional decisions expeditiously, in order to give you as much advance notice as possible.
At the highest level, we want to maintain spring quarter education and research activities to the greatest extent possible, most especially for students who anticipate receiving their Stanford degree this spring. We also know that epidemiological modeling and the expanding availability of testing suggest that the number of COVID-19 cases will continue to grow, including in the region around us. Based on what we are hearing from public health experts, we can expect that the virus will still pose a major challenge by the time spring quarter begins.
As a result, we are taking these steps:
SPRING QUARTER CLASSES: Stanford will begin the spring quarter on time, but we will use virtual learning, rather than in-person classes, until further notice. This is a continuation of the policy we established for the end of winter quarter.Provost Drell has been in touch with the school deans and the chair of the Faculty Senate as we have deliberated on this decision.
We recognize that this means a significant adjustment for many instructors. We will continue to provide assistance to you as you plan, including through the teachanywhere.stanford.edu website. This path also poses challenges for some courses that cannot reasonably meet virtually (for instance, lab courses or performance-based courses). We are in close touch with school deans who are communicating with departments about these kinds of situations, and we will have more guidance soon. Graduating students are very much on our minds, and we are paying particular attention to the course needs of that group.
UNDERGRADUATE HOUSING: Because undergraduates live on our campus in highly communal dormitories and Row houses, with shared bathrooms and dining facilities, we have concluded that reducing the concentration of people in these spaces is essential to helping reduce the risk of virus spread during this next critical phase of COVID-19’s evolution. As such, we are asking undergraduates to leave campus at the end of the quarter if it is possible for them given their personal circumstances. For students receiving financial aid, assistance to travel home will be available where needed.
To support this effort:
- Undergraduates who have already left, or will be leaving, campus as the winter quarter ends should not plan to return to campus until further notice. You will be able to take your coursework virtually, as described above. Exceptions will be available for students who need to return to campus for unavoidable reasons; we know that some international students and other students may not have viable alternatives to returning to campus. Information on requesting these exceptions will be sent in a subsequent email.
- For undergraduates who are currently on campus and feel they need to remain here through the spring break and the spring quarter, you are welcome to do so. The university will continue to support you through Vaden Health Center and the residences; however, you should know that other university programming will be quite limited. We will be requiring all undergraduates and co-terms residing in undergraduate housing who wish to remain on campus to submit a request through an online web form, which again will be available in a subsequent email. It is important for us to know who remains on campus, in part to provide support to you in the case of illness.
GRADUATE STUDENTS AND POSTDOCS: In contrast with undergraduates, graduate students typically have different and less communal living situations, and of course for many graduate students, Stanford is their year-round home and the home of their families. Many graduate students also have research projects that need their ongoing attention. Therefore, we are not asking graduate students to leave their on-campus housing.
We deeply value the essential role that both graduate students and postdoctoral scholars play in our institution’s academic mission. We will continue providing health guidance that aims to support your personal health and safety. We also understand that you will have questions and concerns about potential disruptions to your academic progress or research projects. We hope to minimize these disruptions, and we pledge to stay in touch with you as we make further decisions based on the best public health guidance.
Vice Provost Stacey Bent shared more on these topics in an email last evening; our professional schools will be releasing additional guidance for their students; and we will continue to update FAQs for researchers on the healthalerts.stanford.edu website.
FACULTY AND STAFF: While we are making these changes regarding in-person classes and undergraduate housing, the university remains open in order to continue fulfilling its mission to the greatest extent possible. We are asking for your help in this effort, and your personal health and safety are critical as we do this.
The single most important thing you can do is stay home if you’re sick. Using good personal hygiene and practicing social distancing in the workplace, including using Zoom in place of large-group meetings, are also important steps you can take to help protect yourself and the larger community. Where these practices are insufficient, telecommuting may be an option for some employees, through individual consultations with their managers about the circumstances involved. There is information on the healthalerts.stanford.edu website about these issues, and more will be added as we work through issues of concern to you.
*Too long to paste the whole thing. Here's the link FYI:
https://healthalerts.stanford.edu/2020/03/10/spring-quarter-update/
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 06:09 PM)Mick Wrote: I think it's about time that Main Street had a bailout. Wall Street already had theirs.
My suggestion: I would create a low-cost government loan program to individuals. Up to one year deferral to commence repayment for all comers, up to three years deferral to those who lose their jobs because of coronavirus.
Kind of with Mick here. For as long as I can remember, public health agencies have been loudly trumpeting the thread of a global infectious pandemic. Companies that were vulnerable to the pandemic should have made contingency plans and/or taken out appropriate insurance for it. Investors and bondholders in such companies should have known the risk and either demanded a risk premium or demanded that company management mitigate the risk. The only thing that gives me pause is that the disruption on employees and, secondarily, the wider economy.
But would it be such a horrible thing if cruise lines were wiped out, and their assets (ships) sold for pennies on the dollar to someone who could resurrect them and run them efficiently, and maybe prepare for the next friggin pandemic?
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 82 Card - 03-10-2020
(03-10-2020, 01:04 PM)82lsju Wrote:Quote:Gov. Cuomo announced plans Tuesday to establish a mile-wide “containment zone” over the next two weeks in the coronavirus hotbed of New Rochelle, home to the most reported cases of the ailment anywhere in the country.
The affected area of the city will include schools, houses of worship and “major gathering places" — all to be closed down from this Wednesday through March 25 as part of the effort to stem the spread of the potentially lethal virus in the city that became the outbreak’s epicenter, the governor said.
“It is a dramatic action, but it is the largest cluster in the country,” the governor said. “This is a matter of life and death."
...
The National Guard was also moved into a Health Department command post in New Rochelle as part of the more-aggressive approach to halting the spread of coronavirus. The troops will help with scrubbing the designated public spaces in the danger zone and with delivering food to local residents once the containment area opens.
...
Cuomo made it clear that the new approach would not block people from moving in and out of the designated area or affect local businesses. The intent is to prevent people gathering in public facilities where the virus might be more easily spread
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-20200310-ik54acdivrhzxjhl3cktb3omx4-story.html?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email
I hope the NY guard does a better job than the guard forces summoned to the California border to ward off the "Caravan." The guard ended up creating conditions that later resulted in significant flooding of structures. A similar approach in New Rochelle could make things worse.