Stanford Baseball - Printable Version
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RE: Stanford Baseball - BostonCard - 06-12-2021
(06-12-2021, 10:23 AM)Farm93 Wrote:(06-12-2021, 09:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Watching Miss vs. Arizona last night, Roxy Bernstein said the winner of first game in Super Regionals has an 81% chance of going to Omaha.Statistically that is not quite as impressive as it may appear.
Imagine, two teams so even matched that each team has a 50% chance to win the game against their opponent. These two similar teams then play a best of three series. In that scenario, the team that wins the first game has a 75% chance to win the series.
Then I am sure in most cases the better team/better seed/home team is the winner of game one most of the time. So when you add in the possibility that in many cases the winner of the first game is simply better or playing at home moving from 75% to 81% is not that amazing.
FWIW - During the WCWS they went on and on about similar percentages on reaching the championship series for the teams that go 2-0 to get to the semifinals. And then introduced similar percentages when FSU won game #1. The 80% team ultimately lost in all three of those 80/20 chances.
That sounds about right, though. It suggests that the winner of the first game has a 55% chance of winning the second (or, if necessary) the third game. Of course, that 55% is the weighted average of the "better" team winning the first game, which will happen somewhat more than 55% of the time, and the "weaker" team winning the first game, which will happen somewhat less than 45% of the time.
BC
RE: Stanford Baseball - OutsiderFan - 06-12-2021
Of course, the 81% number is based on what has happened in the past. It doesn't predict what is going to happen in the future.
RE: Stanford Baseball - DC 86 - 06-12-2021
(06-12-2021, 11:38 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Of course, the 81% number is based on what has happened in the past. It doesn't predict what is going to happen in the future.
It predicts what is going to happen in the future in aggregate; obviously every individual series has its own characteristics and outcome. In the case of Stanford/Texas Tech I think it's important for us to win today.
RE: Stanford Baseball - BobK - 06-12-2021
Back to Baseball Williams strikes out the side to start the game.
HR Jones. 1-0
RE: Stanford Baseball - BobK - 06-12-2021
Troy 2 run HR. 3-0
RE: Stanford Baseball - JeebsOak - 06-12-2021
Keep it going Card, counting outs now.
RE: Stanford Baseball - Treefence - 06-12-2021
(06-12-2021, 01:20 PM)chrisk Wrote: Esquires on next inning.
How has he been this year as a manager? A couple years ago in the playoffs, I felt like he hurt us with how conservative he was, and how often he'd give up outs, to advance runners, even from 2nd to 3rd. It seemed in the broadcast, they mentioned Stanford had been aggressive this year, but mainly referring to how often they were swinging, instead of waiting on pitches. Is he still the same as he was a couple years ago, or has he gotten more analytically friendly?
RE: Stanford Baseball - JeebsOak - 06-12-2021
Need a ground ball, getting dicey in the fifth.
Umpire letting tech get back in the game I see.
***** you!!!! Alex Williams baby
***** you!!!! Alex Williams baby
RE: Stanford Baseball - BobK - 06-12-2021
Great last three batters by willians. Wow 3-0 bottom of 5
RE: Stanford Baseball - Treefence - 06-12-2021
(06-12-2021, 01:35 PM)BobK Wrote: Great last three batters by willians. Wow 3-0 bottom of 5
Super gritty to get out of that jam, love the emotion, I bet the crowd hates it...
RE: Stanford Baseball - JeebsOak - 06-12-2021
Of course they hate it, reading the message boards all week tech thought they were going to run rule us every game. Bunch of soft boys from California. Reading their message boards right now and you’d think it’s election night and Texas is turning blue.
RE: Stanford Baseball - Canalejas - 06-12-2021
Crazy to think that a decade ago this almost became a conference matchup.
RE: Stanford Baseball - JeebsOak - 06-12-2021
brobdingnagian run for the card 4-0
RE: Stanford Baseball - DC 86 - 06-12-2021
Clutch performances all around thus far: Williams with multiple strikeouts on 3-2 counts and all four Stanford runs scored with two outs.
RE: Stanford Baseball - JeebsOak - 06-12-2021
Regardless of what happens, Alex Williams and Brendan Beck better not have to buy a beer at Dutch goose for the rest of their lives.
RE: Stanford Baseball - BobK - 06-12-2021
Speed kills great score by Stanford
Willians with a great 6th innings
RE: Stanford Baseball - JeebsOak - 06-12-2021
And we are wasting their main pen arm.
RE: Stanford Baseball - Sam Leopold - 06-12-2021
As much as I'd like to stick around, I have plans in downtown Seattle. Close this and punch our ticket to Omaha in my absence....
RE: Stanford Baseball - BobK - 06-12-2021
I was afraid out of the base line on the play at third. Whew.
Now a big hit needed
RE: Stanford Baseball - JeebsOak - 06-12-2021
Brock Jones everyone