Football Recruiting Class of 2023 - Printable Version
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RE: Class of 2023 - Bruce Wang - 07-23-2022
(07-22-2022, 05:47 PM)Goose Wrote:(07-22-2022, 05:43 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: We often lament that guys leave after 3 years (or sometimes 4 years), instead of staying for 5 like in the olden days. Well, one solution is to recruit players who want to attend a mission before college. Even if Clegg and Lyons end up leaving Stanford after 3 years, they'll still be 23 years old by the time they do so, and they will have played as "grown men," not 18 year-old freshmen. Stanford needs more talent on the field immediately, so I'll be disappointed if it turns out that the two top recruits in the class both are really in the class of '25, but there is a bright side.One problem with players returning from a mission is that they have not played for two years and generally have been unable to work out enough to remain anywhere close to "football shape". While they can hit it hard when they return, rapidly building up strength to play on the OL or DL can be a problem. It just takes some time no matter how much "want to" is present.
One pattern I noticed is that if a young Mormon student athlete choses Stanford, the elders send him to some malnourished third world country. The BYU commits and other VIPs just somehow randomly end up in the first world. Take Mitt Romney as an example, whose father was Chairman of American Motors and Governor of Michigan. Mittens served his mission in Bordeaux, France.
RE: Class of 2023 - msqueri - 07-23-2022
Stanford LDS mission recruits by class in the Harbaugh/Shaw era (certainly possible I'm missing somebody):
2009: Taysom Hill
2010: Dallas Lloyd
2011: None
2012: Brandon Fanaika
2013: Sean Barton
2014: None
2015: Gabe Reid, Houston Heimuli
2016: Simi Fehoko, Tangaloa Kaufusi
2017: Levani Damuni (Sione Lund did not take a mission)
2018: Tanner McKee
2019: None
2020: Scotty Edwards
2021: None
2022: None
Mission destinations: American Samoa (Reid), Australia (Hill), Benin (Barton), Brazil (McKee), Chile (Lloyd), New Zealand (Damuni), South Africa (Edwards), South Korea (Fehoko), Taiwan (Kaufusi), United States (Fanaika, Heimuli)
A majority of them were assigned to so-called first world/global North countries. Barton is the only one who was assigned to a country in the bottom 50 for malnutrition. Reid, McKee, and Lloyd are the only other ones assigned to places even in the bottom 100 for malnutrition, and to put that into perspective Lloyd's location is less plagued by malnutrition than France is. Stanford players have been more likely to be sent to garden spots than to third world countries. I realize the post was cavalier/partially tongue in cheek but it borders on offensive/ugly.
In terms of the issue of using LDS players as a way to get more age without necessarily having as many fifth years, my read of our history with LDS recruits is that they are no more or less effective/reliable than our other recruits. We shouldn't discriminate against them because they do a church mission, nor are they a secret weapon.
RE: Class of 2023 - Phogge - 07-23-2022
It all depends on where in those countries. Haven't been to Benin.
I think that the mission system in the LDS church is a great help to growing up. Almost like National Service which I believe everyone needs and so little do.
RE: Class of 2023 - BostonCard - 07-23-2022
(07-23-2022, 08:57 AM)msqueri Wrote: Stanford LDS mission recruits by class in the Harbaugh/Shaw era (certainly possible I'm missing somebody):
2009: Taysom Hill
2010: Dallas Lloyd
2011: None
2012: Brandon Fanaika
2013: Sean Barton
2014: None
2015: Gabe Reid, Houston Heimuli
2016: Simi Fehoko, Tangaloa Kaufusi
2017: Levani Damuni (Sione Lund did not take a mission)
2018: Tanner McKee
2019: None
2020: Scotty Edwards
2021: None
2022: None
Mission destinations: American Samoa (Reid), Australia (Hill), Benin (Barton), Brazil (McKee), Chile (Lloyd), New Zealand (Damuni), South Africa (Edwards), South Korea (Fehoko), Taiwan (Kaufusi), United States (Fanaika, Heimuli)
A majority of them were assigned to so-called first world/global North countries. Barton is the only one who was assigned to a country in the bottom 50 for malnutrition. Reid, McKee, and Lloyd are the only other ones assigned to places even in the bottom 100 for malnutrition, and to put that into perspective Lloyd's location is less plagued by malnutrition than France is. Stanford players have been more likely to be sent to garden spots than to third world countries. I realize the post was cavalier/partially tongue in cheek but it borders on offensive/ugly.
In terms of the issue of using LDS players as a way to get more age without necessarily having as many fifth years, my read of our history with LDS recruits is that they are no more or less effective/reliable than our other recruits. We shouldn't discriminate against them because they do a church mission, nor are they a secret weapon.
Note that even within a country, there is going to be a wide variety of economic deprivation. Brazil is a middle income country, but there are areas of desperate poverty (favelas in the big cities, underivested rural areas in the north of the country. I believe that McKee posted about his conditions, and the were pretty spartan, and I think there was legitimate concern that he would come back far from a football weight.
That being said, your post is spot on. I think we’ve generally, but not universally, done well with LDS recruits who go on missions. There are a couple of duds, some very solid contributors, and some stars (including, hopefully, McKee).
BC
RE: Class of 2023 - pcgoode - 07-23-2022
Walker Lyons to Stanford. https://n.rivals.com/news/stanford-wins-out-for-four-star-tight-end-walker-lyons
RE: Class of 2023 - SamuelMcF - 07-23-2022
(07-23-2022, 12:41 PM)pcgoode Wrote: Walker Lyons to Stanford. https://n.rivals.com/news/stanford-wins-out-for-four-star-tight-end-walker-lyons
[tweet]https://twitter.com/walkerly0ns/status/1550918682297020416[/tweet]
Love it. 2025 is off to a hell of a start.
RE: Class of 2023 - TrumpCard - 07-23-2022
I would argue that group of LDS missionaries who played at Stanford are above-average. Lloyd, Fanaika, Barton, Reid, Fehoko, Damuni, and McKee all started at least one year. Heimuli was a team captain and got a good number of reps. Only Kaufusi was not a significant contributor. Granted, not all starters are made equally, but that’s still a very good hit rate.
RE: Class of 2023 - murky - 07-23-2022
(07-23-2022, 08:04 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: I would argue that group of LDS missionaries who played at Stanford are above-average. Lloyd, Fanaika, Barton, Reid, Fehoko, Damuni, and McKee all started at least one year. Heimuli was a team captain and got a good number of reps. Only Kaufusi was not a significant contributor. Granted, not all starters are made equally, but that’s still a very good hit rate.
That was my impression too, on seeing the list of names.
RE: Class of 2023 - OutsiderFan - 07-24-2022
Will David Shaw still be the Head Coach when Lyons returns from his mission?
I believe most reading this would say yes, but I also believe most reading this aren't as confident in that yes as they would have been if it was asked two years ago.
RE: Class of 2023 - msqueri - 07-24-2022
(07-23-2022, 09:55 PM)murky Wrote:(07-23-2022, 08:04 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: I would argue that group of LDS missionaries who played at Stanford are above-average. Lloyd, Fanaika, Barton, Reid, Fehoko, Damuni, and McKee all started at least one year. Heimuli was a team captain and got a good number of reps. Only Kaufusi was not a significant contributor. Granted, not all starters are made equally, but that’s still a very good hit rate.
That was my impression too, on seeing the list of names.
Starting one year or getting a good number of reps are not high bars to clear and don't make somebody above-average IMHO, although I agree that the frequency of it happening with LDS missionaries arguably makes LDS missionaries as a group above-average in this respect. I'd want to be comparative about this to make any judgments. My attempt at that:
* Shaw has had 25 of his recruits judged to be superstars, as measured by all-conference recognition, which means that there is about a 20 percent chance of a Shaw recruit becoming a superstar (excluding 2019 and beyond recruits as they still have a chance to make all-conference). Our LDS recruits have definitely been superstars less often than the average as Fehoko is the only one to ever do it for Shaw. If one assumes McKee gets to that level before his Stanford career is done (which, for what it's worth, I'd bet against) and Edwards doesn't, that gets the LDS recruits even with the superstar hit rate generally.
* Looking at it another way, Shaw has had slightly more players make the NFL than reach Pac-12 all-conference level, so if McKee gets to the NFL our LDS recruits are arguably keeping pace with the non-missionaries in this respect but are definitely not ahead of them.
* You are correct that the hit rate on being a starter-level player appears to be pretty good for LDS recruits. Shaw recruits have had about a 60 percent chance of becoming starter-level players and this LDS cohort is at 78 percent.
There are sample size issues for all of these observations that should make us think about this more impressionistically than mathematically. My impression: LDS missionaries perform solidly and may or may not be more reliable than non-missionaries but are certainly not more spectacular. My view is that we get maturity and steadiness from these recruits but it goes too far to say they out-perform their peers.
RE: Class of 2023 - msqueri - 07-24-2022
Four* dimensional analysis on Lyons:
Services: 247 composite #87 (#5 TE), On3 consensus #98 (#5 TE), 247 #102 (#7 TE), On3 #179 (#8 TE), Rivals #77 (#3 TE, 5.9 grade, same grade as Dalton Schultz), ESPN #98 (#5 TE, #1 Y TE)
Offers: Stanford, BYU, USC, Utah, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Auburn, Cal, Colorado, Colorado State, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Louisville, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Nevada, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon State, Penn State, San Jose State, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Washington, Washington State
Production: Maxpreps reports that as a junior against excellent competition (top 20 percent of Shaw recruits), Lyons had 42 catches (third on the team) for 646 yards (second) at a 15.4 yards per catch clip (tops among the top three receivers) with 7 touchdowns (second); on defense he had 0.9 tackles per game, 4 tackles for loss (10th), 1.5 sacks (ninth), 5 hurries (tied for eighth), and one fumble recovered. In the pandemic-shortened sophomore season he had 17 catches for 281 yards (16.5 yards per catch) and 5 touchdowns, all third on his team; he also played defense and had 3.2 tackles per game (tied for 11th), 3.5 tackles for loss (tied for fourth), 2 sacks (tied for second), 13 hurries (team lead), a pass defended, a forced fumble, and a recovered fumble. [When there's a discrepancy I rely on Maxpreps to be able to be comparative but it's worth noting that Lyons himself reports 44 catches for 746 yards and 9 touchdowns as a junior and 3 sacks as a sophomore.] Both years he shared glory with Notre Dame 4-star WR commit Rico Flores. Lyons has been selected for the All-American Bowl and the Polynesian Bowl.
Highlights: The highlights show a mix of him as a route runner split out who is adept at finding spaces in between defenders and as an in-line blocking tight end. There is more as a receiver but a fair amount of blocking for such a good receiving tight end. There is also a smattering of highlights on defense and one punt coverage tackle. To get a glimpse of how Lyons looked on plays on which he wasn't targeted, I homed in on #85 on Rico Flores' highlights but they were Flores highlights rather than Lyons highlights for a reason and I don't have anything really positive or negative to report from that glimpse. The reason Folsom's schedule is considered so strong is that they played two games against De La Salle and two games against Rocklin (in both cases avenging regular season losses in the playoffs) and lost the state championship to Cathedral Catholic. De La Salle and Rocklin were top 30 teams in California and Cathedral Catholic was a top five team. Rocklin bottled Lyons up pretty well in both games, De La Salle did in one game, and Cathedral Catholic completely shut him down in what has to be the worst game of his career (no stats, no individual highlight posted, highlights of the game show a pick six by 3-star LB Victory Johnson on a ball targeted to Lyons, and Johnson's highlights show two other drops by Lyons), but Lyons did go off in the regular season against De La Salle with an 11 catch, 155 yard game (albeit didn't find the end zone in any of the marquee games). The Pittsburgh highlights are the most appealing as they show Lyons comprehensively outshining Washington 4-star WR commit Rashid Williams as both players played both ways and Lyons out-received Williams, did damage intermediate to deep finding soft spots in front of Williams, and sacked Miami whale QB commit Jaden Rashada. One of the De La Salle highlights show Lyons repeatedly victimizing San Jose State LB Damonie Perkins (running through/bullying on an intermediate route in the middle of the field, burning on a stop and go, and several other plays. That highlight also showed a similar running through/bullying on an intermediate route play against Michigan safety and former 4-star recruit Zeke Berry (Berry's own highlights show three passes defended against Lyons, including one where Lyons ran a nice post route deep to beat the nickel and Berry provided excellent safety to help to crunch Lyons as the ball was arriving).
We have a headliner for the class! Lyons will boost class rankings and make the class look better than it is in terms of immediate help as his LDS church mission plans make him a 2025 recruit. What an incredible start to 2025 recruiting with Lyons and Clegg. Lyons is an exclamation point on Stanford's return as a top-notch tight end recruiting program. We've recruited the last couple of years such that on-paper Roush will be able to replace Yurosek and Lyons will be able to replace Roush, but that understates the quality of the room going forward, as Hawkins is a high ceiling overall/very high floor as a blocker and Platt is comparable to Roush and only a tick behind Lyons in what can be expected on paper. Stanford will clearly have one of the best TE rooms in the nation going forward. As for Lyons, it's poignant that Schultz is the only Stanford TE Rivals has ever given the same grade as Lyons (Parkinson and Smith more highly-regarded, everybody else lesser) as the comparisons between their recruiting profiles jump out (essentially identical). Watching the highlights, though, Zach Ertz may be a more obvious comparison. Savvy route running/football intelligence in a big frame with a complete skill set is what jumps out to me about Lyons.
* Recently I've taken to deeper film analysis of recruits, which makes the production sections quite long. I'm experimenting here on a "four dimensional" analysis breaking highlights into their own category but am happy to do whatever folks prefer.
RE: Class of 2023 - BostonCard - 07-24-2022
Thanks Matt. Your analyses (regardless of whether or not you break out the film) are exceedingly useful. I really hope you enjoy doing them and view it as a fun hobby and not an obligation; the last thing I would want is for you to stop because you burn out. Keep them coming!
Ertz is an interesting comparison, and one could do much worse than Ertz. However, one thing Ertz was not especially known for, particularly early in his career, was his inline blocking, which is something that you commented on here. Back in Ertz’ day, the o-line was so dominant that we could get away with having a somewhat well lopsided tight end. Now, I think we will need a tight end capable of blocking well too.
BC
RE: Class of 2023 - msqueri - 07-24-2022
It was an important feature of Ertz' career that he played with Toilolo and vice versa. I'm sure we're hoping Roush and Hawkins can be Ertz/Toilolo for a new generation.
RE: Class of 2023 - BostonCard - 07-24-2022
(07-24-2022, 12:46 PM)msqueri Wrote: It was an important feature of Ertz' career that he played with Toilolo and vice versa. I'm sure we're hoping Roush and Hawkins can be Ertz/Toilolo for a new generation.
Good point about Toilolo. Also, Coby Fleener overlapped with Ertz for a couple of years. That was aN UNBELIEVABLE tight end room.
BC
RE: Class of 2023 - msqueri - 07-24-2022
(07-24-2022, 01:03 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(07-24-2022, 12:46 PM)msqueri Wrote: It was an important feature of Ertz' career that he played with Toilolo and vice versa. I'm sure we're hoping Roush and Hawkins can be Ertz/Toilolo for a new generation.
Good point about Toilolo. Also, Coby Fleener overlapped with Ertz for a couple of years. That was aN UNBELIEVABLE tight end room.
BC
An impressive piece of trivia that makes Ungar/Yurosek, Roush/Hawkins, and Lyons/Platt (though maybe that doesn't count as Lyons is 2025) land a bit differently:
In the last two decades, Stanford has had multiple tight ends in the same class sign with NFL teams five different times (Lorig and Dray in 2005; Ertz, Toilolo, Hewitt, and Najvar in 2009; Hooper and Cotton in 2013, Smith and Harrington in 2016, Parkinson and Fisk in 2017). Cotton, Harrington, and Fisk are pretty fringe, but still....wow. And 2007 had both tight ends, Kiilsgaard (switched immediately to tight end after initially being recruited at quarterback) and Fleener, go pro but one was in baseball.
RE: Class of 2023 - TrumpCard - 07-24-2022
Teriffic news that Lyons is committed. He's got every chance to be in the line of Stanford TEs who make it to the pros.
As a side note, I think Stanford now is pretty likely to end up with a top 25 recruiting class again. That would be the 4th such class in the last 5 years, 8th in the last 10 years, and 12th in the last 15 years. That's an impressive run, especially for a team like Stanford that is facing so many headwinds in the current environment. That said, unless and until Stanford lands the next in the line of 4-star QBs (or at least a solid QB recruit with upside), I don't think it's fully accurate to say that the program is keeping up with its last 15 years of historical talent levels.
RE: Class of 2023 - msqueri - 07-24-2022
(07-24-2022, 02:02 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: Teriffic news that Lyons is committed. He's got every chance to be in the line of Stanford TEs who make it to the pros.
As a side note, I think Stanford now is pretty likely to end up with a top 25 recruiting class again. That would be the 4th such class in the last 5 years, 8th in the last 10 years, and 12th in the last 15 years. That's an impressive run, especially for a team like Stanford that is facing so many headwinds in the current environment. That said, unless and until Stanford lands the next in the line of 4-star QBs (or at least a solid QB recruit with upside), I don't think it's fully accurate to say that the program is keeping up with its last 15 years of historical talent levels.
Stanford being a top 25 class would be an on-paper kind of thing but not in reality. Lyons and Clegg, two of the three marquee players in the class, are 2025 recruits. Our 2023 recruiting class will be worse than the rankings suggest.
I'm not yet at the point of being sure where the 2023 class will rank with the benefit of Lyons and Clegg. For what it's worth, if you assume we close on Evan Link, Leviticus Su'a, Ethan Thomason (another who wouldn't really be part of this class), Gavin Geweniger, Zak Yamauchi, Tre Williams, Brock Fonoimoana (another who wouldn't really be part of this class), Elijah Hughes, Carter Shaw, a 3-star QB (plugging Emory Williams in notionally), and a 3-star DB that would certainly be an optimistic read of the rest of our board. Plugging those names into the 247 class calculator spits out a 226.96 score, which would be the eighth best score of Shaw's 12 recruiting classes. Last year it would have ranked 22nd nationally and the year before 19th.
I would be quite relieved about that but would make the same point as you about QB. And that notional class envisions a very successful end game in terms of closing the remaining recruitments and, again, gives us credit for numerous LDS missionaries, including two of the jewels of the class.
All in all, with Lonergan gone, I think it's safe to say recruiting is not keeping up with the historical talent levels of the last 15 years but it's chugging along at a high enough level not to be disastrous. Indeed, it's an impressive steady state level of recruiting given our lack of football success in recent years.
RE: Class of 2023 - Phogge - 07-24-2022
2025 great but not necessarily for Bobbbb and me. Long in the tooth. LOL.
RE: Class of 2023 - Spiny_Norman - 07-25-2022
Stanford may not get a scholarship QB in this class. But they will have a QB.
[twitter]https://twitter.com/StanfordRivals/status/1551649517988024321[/twitter]
RE: Class of 2023 - TrumpCard - 07-25-2022
Welcome to Stanford, Mr. Weekly! It’s not your fault that you’re coming into an situation where unreasonable expectations are inevitable.
Also, I hope this is not an excuse to forgo recruiting a scholarship QB in this class. Keep working at it until the bell rings on LOI day. And beyond that into transfer season if a high school senior doesn’t commit.