Stanford Baseball - Printable Version
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RE: Stanford Baseball - Papa John - 06-15-2021
I agree, BobK, although Esquer went with Williams first in the Stanford regional, I'm guessing because he presumed that game 2 vs the winner of #2 UCI/#3 Nevada (and it was very likely going to be UCI) posed more of a threat than #4 NDSU. If Stanford beat NDSU--which it did--then Beck the ace faces UCI--which he did and won. If Stanford had lost to NDSU, then Esquer would have Beck starting in an elimination game.
He may feel the same way here. Stanford's second game in the CWS will be versus either Arizona or Vanderbilt, and he might want Beck versus either opponent.
Not what I would choose to do, as my strategy is to do everything you can to win the game that you are playing today and worry about tomorrow when it comes. But then again, I'm a scorekeeper, not a manager.
RE: Stanford Baseball - magnus - 06-15-2021
(06-15-2021, 09:31 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: If we win the first two games, it would be Beck on the 19th, Williams on the 21st, and then Beck again on the 25th, with Williams available for the "if necessary" game. Pretty ideal. But if we lose one of the first two, we're playing on the 23rd, so that would be either Beck on 4 days' rest or a third starter
Technically, I believe you mean 3 days' rest? Pitch, rest, rest, rest, pitch.
RE: Stanford Baseball - ColoradoTree - 06-15-2021
(06-15-2021, 11:52 AM)magnus Wrote:(06-15-2021, 09:31 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: If we win the first two games, it would be Beck on the 19th, Williams on the 21st, and then Beck again on the 25th, with Williams available for the "if necessary" game. Pretty ideal. But if we lose one of the first two, we're playing on the 23rd, so that would be either Beck on 4 days' rest or a third starter
Technically, I believe you mean 3 days' rest? Pitch, rest, rest, rest, pitch.
Yep, you're right. So, 3 days' rest in that situation, and 5 days' rest for our Game 1 starter if we win the first two, with our Game 2 starter on 4 days' rest for the winner-take-all game to get out of that half of the bracket. In that situation, presumably you limit his innings, get a few innings out of Grech, and hope you can piece together the rest of the game.
RE: Stanford Baseball - BostonCard - 06-15-2021
(06-15-2021, 11:20 AM)Papa John Wrote: I agree, BobK, although Esquer went with Williams first in the Stanford regional, I'm guessing because he presumed that game 2 vs the winner of #2 UCI/#3 Nevada (and it was very likely going to be UCI) posed more of a threat than #4 NDSU. If Stanford beat NDSU--which it did--then Beck the ace faces UCI--which he did and won. If Stanford had lost to NDSU, then Esquer would have Beck starting in an elimination game.
He may feel the same way here. Stanford's second game in the CWS will be versus either Arizona or Vanderbilt, and he might want Beck versus either opponent.
Not what I would choose to do, as my strategy is to do everything you can to win the game that you are playing today and worry about tomorrow when it comes. But then again, I'm a scorekeeper, not a manager.
I think the gap between the 4th seeded regional team and the second or third is much larger than the gap between any two CWS participants (even if one of them was not a regional seed). Thus, it makes more sense not to get too cute with the rotation.
BC
RE: Stanford Baseball - ColoradoTree - 06-15-2021
Of course, the CWS finals, if you make it there, are June 28, 29, and 30--so if Beck pitches the 25th and Williams the 26th, how many innings can they realistically give you in the finals?
You obviously can't do anything other than take it one game at a time and just try to survive, but the way the schedule sets up will have the effect of deemphasizing your top two starters for the CWS finals. Maybe you can ride your top two to get there, but you're going to have to use every arm you have in the finals.
Anyway, I realize that's the dilemma college baseball coaches always face, and it certainly rewards deeper teams, which is totally fine. Here's hoping for massive early leads!
RE: Stanford Baseball - ca245 - 06-15-2021
This Beck/Williams discussion reminds me why I find baseball more interesting than softball. In baseball you need a much more complete pitching staff, with multiple quality starters and relievers. In softball, you can rely very much on a single ace like UCLA's Rachel Garcia: not only is she more likely to pitch a CG (7 inning games) than a baseball starter (Williams' CG last weekend being the exception and not the rule), but she can pitch again the next day. In baseball, you won't see the ace pitcher more than once in a three game series.
As an aside, can someone knowledgeable in biomechanics explain why the underhand pitching motion in softball lets the pitcher pitch so often without ruining her arm, while a baseball starting pitcher usually needs 4+ days rest between starts?
RE: Stanford Baseball - BobK - 06-15-2021
There is very little pressure on your shoulder throwing underhand
It’s a natural motion
RE: Stanford Baseball - magnus - 06-15-2021
(06-15-2021, 01:39 PM)BobK Wrote: There is very little pressure on your shoulder throwing underhand
It’s a natural motion
The underhand part seems natural, but the windup always seems so violent.
RE: Stanford Baseball - CTcard - 06-15-2021
(06-15-2021, 11:20 AM)Papa John Wrote: I agree, BobK, although Esquer went with Williams first in the Stanford regional, I'm guessing because he presumed that game 2 vs the winner of #2 UCI/#3 Nevada (and it was very likely going to be UCI) posed more of a threat than #4 NDSU. If Stanford beat NDSU--which it did--then Beck the ace faces UCI--which he did and won. If Stanford had lost to NDSU, then Esquer would have Beck starting in an elimination game.
He may feel the same way here. Stanford's second game in the CWS will be versus either Arizona or Vanderbilt, and he might want Beck versus either opponent.
Not what I would choose to do, as my strategy is to do everything you can to win the game that you are playing today and worry about tomorrow when it comes. But then again, I'm a scorekeeper, not a manager.
For those who've followed Stanford baseball closely over the years, it was a surprise that Stanford started Williams over Beck in game 1 of the regionals. Generally, Stanford has been simply straight forward in their tournament pitching, sticking to the season rotation order.
For that matter, it was a surprise to Beck. He was interviewed during the broadcast of game 2 of the series versus OSU. He was asked if Esquer might hold him back for the second game of the regionals. He replied that while he'd do whatever Esquer asked of him, he expected to be game 1 starter because holding back the ace has never been Stanford's way.
I suspect that at this point, where all the opponents are very good, Stanford will return to its normal rotation. That also fits with the super regional order, keeping Beck's and William's rest the usual 6 days. [EDIT - actually 7 days as the super regional started on a Friday, the CWS on Saturday.]
As others have noted, if one can win the first two games, you can go back to starter #1 for the first semifinal game. But the lack of rest before the championship series means that would eliminate your ace for at least the start of that series.
I suspect that the approach next week will be to do whatever possible to win the game at hand, and pray the bats win any game once the pitching gets in trouble.
One other facet of the CWS. The new stadium in Omaha is far more pitcher friendly than Rosenblatt was. I think 2019 was the most homeruns since the new stadium debuted in 2011. There were 22 homeruns in 15 games, or a little under 1.5 per game. By contrast, Stanford all alone hit 7 homeruns in 2 games in Lubbock. The two teams averaged 4.5 per game.
RE: Stanford Baseball - Stanford2020 - 06-15-2021
I do think the key to continuing to advance for Stanford is going to be riding Beck and Williams as far as they'll take us. We need, more than most teams coming to Omaha, to win these first two games if we want a good shot at making the best-of-three.
The eight pitcher piecemeal worked to sneak past UC Irvine in the third Regional game, but getting cute like that is much less likely to work in Omaha. If we are forced into a spot where we need to play an elimination game with neither Beck or Williams available, we are going to be in trouble. On the other hand, if we can stay ahead of our rotation, we will be in good shape.
tldr, just keep winning.
RE: Stanford Baseball - Papa John - 06-15-2021
Unless a game is a blowout, besides Beck and Williams I think we'll see Grech, Palisch, Pancer, O'Rourke and Dixon--maybe Weiermiller--though not necessarily in that order. I would love to include Quinn Matthews and Drew Dowd, but they both struggled against Irvine in the Stanford regional.
Are two starters and five relievers enough pitching for sustained success in the CWS format? I can't wait to find out.
RE: Stanford Baseball - BostonCard - 06-15-2021
NCAA had a good preview of the CWS. Not much I didn’t learn from CTCard above (Vanderbilt has great pitching, Arizona has a great offense, Texas is maybe the team to beat).
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2021-06-15/2021-mens-college-world-series-schedules-previews-omaha
BC
RE: Stanford Baseball - CTcard - 06-15-2021
(06-15-2021, 01:39 PM)BobK Wrote: There is very little pressure on your shoulder throwing underhand
It’s a natural motion
And FAR less pressure on your elbow.
RE: Stanford Baseball - CTcard - 06-15-2021
(06-15-2021, 03:49 PM)Papa John Wrote: Unless a game is a blowout, besides Beck and Williams I think we'll see Grech, Palisch, Pancer, O'Rourke and Dixon--maybe Weiermiller--though not necessarily in that order. I would love to include Quinn Matthews and Drew Dowd, but they both struggled against Irvine in the Stanford regional.
Are two starters and five relievers enough pitching for sustained success in the CWS format? I can't wait to find out.
I think we'll see Quinn Mathews a significant amount, perhaps a start. Dowd likely to appear as well.
They are perhaps the most live arms we have (outside of Beck, maybe Williams). Both get into trouble when the lose the strike zone.
Mathews had extended stints in both of the latter two games vs UCI, so I think Esquer trusts him - or at least thinks he is one of the better options available. He was a weekend starter all year. He did skip a start vs OSU on the Grech experiment but was the first guy in when Williams got lit up in game 3.
Dowd has still been making appearances as well. He had stints in the final game vs UCI, vs North Dakota State, and the final series vs OSU. He is tied for second on the team in strike outs per inning pitched after Beck, tied with Williams. Again the live arm.
RE: Stanford Baseball - BobK - 06-15-2021
Actually Many softball pitchers have a natural screwball. I never taught it so don’t know what it does to ones elbow.
RE: Stanford Baseball - CardinalSagehen - 06-15-2021
(06-15-2021, 05:06 PM)CTcard Wrote:(06-15-2021, 01:39 PM)BobK Wrote: There is very little pressure on your shoulder throwing underhand
It’s a natural motion
And FAR less pressure on your elbow.
I think many are familiar with the stories of Jenny Finch and other great softball pitchers befuddling all-stars like Barry Bonds and ARod with softball pitches. In those matchups, the pitcher used a softball (larger and slower than a baseball) but pitched from a softball mound (closer). The time it took for the pitches to reach home plate was similar to a high-end fastball from 90 feet. But the MLB players had no chance even to make contact, because they had no experience reading and reacting to those pitches.
I wonder if anyone's ever tried letting a softball pitcher use a baseball from 90 feet. How fast can she throw it, can she control it, and can baseball hitters track it? Of course, with some practice, I'm sure the hitters could mash it, or else we'd see more Dan Quisenberry's in MLB. But I'm thinking about this as an unexpected novelty - a scenario where a woman softball pitcher would be brought in as a surprise to the other team and it would only have to work once or twice.
I know nothing about softball. I assume this experiment doesn't work from 90 feet with a baseball, but not sure. Just for fun, anyone know?
RE: Stanford Baseball - BobK - 06-15-2021
Why 90 feet?
RE: Stanford Baseball - ca245 - 06-15-2021
Our hunter-gatherer ancestors having been throwing stones and spears overhand when hunting for a couple of hundred thousand years. It's surprising that, with all that time, Mother Nature couldn't figure a way to evolve shoulders and arms where throwing overhand is "natural." :)
RE: Stanford Baseball - Papa John - 06-15-2021
I hear what you're saying about Mathews and Dowd, CTCard, but...
Mathews has 30 BBs in 60 innings and a 6.15 ERA.
Dowd has 20 BBs in 37 1/3 innings and a 6.99 ERA.
Maybe we see them in a blowout? I would put them in the same grouping as Weiermiller, although Weiermiller, now a senior, pitched really well in 2019 and we are all hoping to see him replicate that success. Dowd is a frosh and Mathews is a sophomore.
Whoever is on the mound for Stanford will get my full support. I love this team for its unrelenting resilience.
RE: Stanford Baseball - Ballbuster - 06-15-2021
(06-15-2021, 08:41 PM)Papa John Wrote: I hear what you're saying about Mathews and Dowd, CTCard, but...
Mathews has 30 BBs in 60 innings and a 6.15 ERA.
Dowd has 20 BBs in 37 1/3 innings and a 6.99 ERA.
Maybe we see them in a blowout? I would put them in the same grouping as Weiermiller, although Weiermiller, now a senior, pitched really well in 2019 and we are all hoping to see him replicate that success. Dowd is a frosh and Mathews is a sophomore.
Whoever is on the mound for Stanford will get my full support. I love this team for its unrelenting resilience.
Who knows who they will pitch, NC State has gone with their starting 9 all year. Their bench is very limited, one bench player has more than 10 AB's. This lineup did not light up the scoreboard either. NCST and I would have to assume that it was their number one pitcher gave up 7 ER and only lasted 3 innings in that 21 - 2 blowout against Arkansas. TD Ameritrade will not play like Arkansas or R.I.P stadium in Texas. So their line up who did rely on the homerun is going to be different for NC State. Stanford can hit the ball in the gaps, and different players have contributed. Martinez can hopefully come of and put a ball in play. I have to assume that is why he has been out, since he fell into a slump at the wrong time.
If Stanford can win the first and get by Vandy, they may have a shot. Pitching is what it is, so whatever Esquer's decision, it is because he is working with what he has!