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RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 03-04-2024
Trying to wrap my head around the choice of Brandon Staley, ostensibly a defensive guru. He's a Fangio disciple, which speaks well of him, I think.
On the negative side...during his three years with the Chargers, his defenses were ranked #24, #21 and #29 in points allowed and #23, #20 and #28 in yards allowed. The prior three years, Anthony Lynn's Charger defenses were ranked #9, #6 and #10 in yards allowed.
On the positive side, his Rams had the #1 ranked defense when he was their DC in 2020. His Broncos were #12 ranked (improved from #22) the one year he was OLB coach. And when he coached the LB's at Chicago in 2017 and 2018, they improved from #31 ranking to #15 in 2017 and #3 in 2018. Quite the turnaround.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - French Rage - 03-04-2024
(03-04-2024, 08:47 AM)Mick Wrote: Trying to wrap my head around the choice of Brandon Staley, ostensibly a defensive guru. He's a Fangio disciple, which speaks well of him, I think.
On the negative side...during his three years with the Chargers, his defenses were ranked #24, #21 and #29 in points allowed and #23, #20 and #28 in yards allowed. The prior three years, Anthony Lynn's Charger defenses were ranked #9, #6 and #10 in yards allowed.
On the positive side, his Rams had the #1 ranked defense when he was their DC in 2020. His Broncos were #12 ranked (improved from #22) the one year he was OLB coach. And when he coached the LB's at Chicago in 2017 and 2018, they improved from #31 ranking to #15 in 2017 and #3 in 2018. Quite the turnaround.
Someone on KNBR was saying that if you watched Staley's defenses they were quite tactically creative, but he also suffered from a defensive roster in LA that could not make the most of his designs, whereas the 49ers would be able to. Granted, your stats showing the drop in D quality would rebut that, though maybe there was turnover in the roster when he took over the D there. I can't pretend to know.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - BostonCard - 06-04-2024
McCaffrey is getting paid.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40276938/sources-49ers-give-christian-mccaffrey-2-year-38m-extension
New record for a running back. Also, good 40-year decision.
BC
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 06-05-2024
(06-04-2024, 11:19 PM)BostonCard Wrote: McCaffrey is getting paid.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40276938/sources-49ers-give-christian-mccaffrey-2-year-38m-extension
New record for a running back. Also, good 40-year decision.
BC
McCaffrey has a point about running backs being paid relatively poorly. The top free agent RB in March, 2023 was Miles Sanders, who averaged $6.4 million for a four year deal, which would have made him the 40th highest-paid receiver at the time. The 2024 franchise tag for receivers is $21.816 million, tight ends $12.693 million and running backs are the lowest at just $11.951 million (prior to McCaffrey's increase), excluding kicker/punters.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-franchise-tag-values-heres-how-much-it-will-cost-teams-to-use-the-franchise-tag-based-on-position/
RE: 2023 Niners thread - French Rage - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 06:24 AM)Mick Wrote:(06-04-2024, 11:19 PM)BostonCard Wrote: McCaffrey is getting paid.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40276938/sources-49ers-give-christian-mccaffrey-2-year-38m-extension
New record for a running back. Also, good 40-year decision.
BC
McCaffrey has a point about running backs being paid relatively poorly. The top free agent RB in March, 2023 was Miles Sanders, who averaged $6.4 million for a four year deal, which would have made him the 40th highest-paid receiver at the time. The 2024 franchise tag for receivers is $21.816 million, tight ends $12.693 million and running backs are the lowest at just $11.951 million (prior to McCaffrey's increase), excluding kicker/punters.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-franchise-tag-values-heres-how-much-it-will-cost-teams-to-use-the-franchise-tag-based-on-position/
Hasn't it been a thing for a season or two, though, that running backs age poorly now so no team wants to go to deep into an RB contract? They're basically a commodity now that you spend more carefully on.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Giants - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 12:20 PM)French Rage Wrote:(06-05-2024, 06:24 AM)Mick Wrote:(06-04-2024, 11:19 PM)BostonCard Wrote: McCaffrey is getting paid.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40276938/sources-49ers-give-christian-mccaffrey-2-year-38m-extension
New record for a running back. Also, good 40-year decision.
BC
McCaffrey has a point about running backs being paid relatively poorly. The top free agent RB in March, 2023 was Miles Sanders, who averaged $6.4 million for a four year deal, which would have made him the 40th highest-paid receiver at the time. The 2024 franchise tag for receivers is $21.816 million, tight ends $12.693 million and running backs are the lowest at just $11.951 million (prior to McCaffrey's increase), excluding kicker/punters.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-franchise-tag-values-heres-how-much-it-will-cost-teams-to-use-the-franchise-tag-based-on-position/
Hasn't it been a thing for a season or two, though, that running backs age poorly now so no team wants to go to deep into an RB contract? They're basically a commodity now that you spend more carefully on.
Yep. Shanahan (and his Dad, before him) demonstrated through careful identification of late round/free agent RB’s, you can fill your roster with low-cost guys who can play quite effectively.
There is no need to draft RB’s early or pay them a bundle via free agency.
The irony is Shanahan went against this, proven to be successful, line of thinking and struck gold with McCaffrey. One might say that CMC is a true unicorn.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 06-08-2024
Brock Purdy throws a highly catchable ball. The 49ers led the NFL in fewest dropped passes last season. Here's their dropped passes between 2019 and 2023...Purdy > Garoppolo by a significant margin:
2019: 28
2020: 34
2021: 26
2022: 37
2023: 9
Pasportsfan - PAsportsfan - 12-29-2024
(02-22-2024, 09:23 AM)Mick Wrote:(12-17-2023, 10:27 AM)Mick Wrote:(12-06-2023, 06:57 PM)Nan3cy Wrote: I would think a lifetime ban is a bit much, but would be okay with double secret probation.
The other shoe dropped. Not a lifetime ban, but DiSandro has been banned from the Eagles' sideline for the rest of the season.
https://www.whio.com/sports/nfl-bans-eagles/S5WOVZMFDLSBKNV4TT3SOSUC3Y/
Yet a third shoe dropped, based upon Dom DiSandro's 2023 sideline banishment. Apparently Eagles HC Nick Sirianni couldn't take it, needed DiSandro around to sand off Sirianni's rough edges. The Eagles were 10-2 leading into DiSandro's discipline, and went 1-4 with an early playoff exit afterward. Apparently, DiSandro would calm Sirianni, and without DiSandro, Sirianni would tee off on coaches and players, leading to the downward spiral. This according to Derrick Gunn, longtime reporting covering the Eagles. Sirianni agreed.
"DiSandro, nicknamed "Big Dom," controlled Sirianni's emotions on the sideline, and without him, the head coach got into "numerous arguments with players/coaches during games," longtime Philadelphia radio host Derrick Gunn reported Wednesday, citing sources."
Nick Sirianni couldn't handle the loss of a member of his team and that led to the Eagles debacle
Big Dom working hard for Tanner McKee.
https://x.com/IreNFL/status/1873464873507836093
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Giants - 12-30-2024
The good news after tonight’s loss - SF clinched a 4th place finish in the NFC West.
That means next year they will play the Bears, Giants and Browns rather than Dallas, Green Bay and Cincinnati. In addition, the Niners will play the usual suspects in the West, the NFC South and the AFC South.
Overall, this is a very light schedule compared to this year’s grinder.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 12-31-2024
(12-30-2024, 11:08 PM)Giants Wrote: The good news after tonight’s loss - SF clinched a 4th place finish in the NFC West.
That means next year they will play the Bears, Giants and Browns rather than Dallas, Green Bay and Cincinnati. In addition, the Niners will play the usual suspects in the West, the NFC South and the AFC South.
Overall, this is a very light schedule compared to this year’s grinder.
It would be nice if they avoided Thursday and Monday night games, and given this year's record, I doubt they'll be featured outside of Sunday much. Their negative-day rest disparity (cumulative days fewer rest than their opponents) was -21, worst in the NFL this year and third worst since 2005. Over the past two seasons, they had a -41 day rest differential, twice as bad as the next worst rest differential. This season they played eight games with less rest than their opponents. Basically, they were completely screwed by the schedule makers.
From the article below:
"Although the total sample size is understandably limited by the number of games played, a 2018 study on rest disparity published in the Journal of Sports Economics concluded that a team suffering through a single day of rest disparity allows roughly 4.5 more points and is 25 percent less likely to win that game."
49ers' Brutal Schedule: Breaking Down the Unfair Rest Disparity Controversy
Does the terrible schedule contribute to more injuries? Perhaps. The 49ers lost 511 player-games to injury in 2024, about average for the NFL. But the significance of their losses, according to this article, led to 132 lost points, fifth-worst in the NFL:
Which NFL Teams Have Been Most and Least Impacted By Injuries? - Sports Info Solutions
Nine of the 10 teams with the fewest points lost to injury made the playoffs.
The extra six weeks off will do the 49ers a world of reparative good.
Good news: Purdy's injury doesn't appear to be serious. And Pearsall showed that yes, in fact, he can catch a pass. 8 receptions, 141 yards -- Brandon Aiyuk has only had two games that strong in his career. Jennings, 7 catches. Bosa, two sacks. Guerendo caught all four of his targeted passes. The patchwork OL (Zakelj and Heck started) only gave up two sacks. Niners have given up the fewest penalties in the NFL this year, that's a disciplined team.
Bad news: Two items. First, the defense needs help at the margins, pretty much all over. Not sure Sorenson keeps his job, even though the 49ers gave up the 6th fewest yards and 8th fewest yards per play in the NFL this year. DB's gave up 303 yards. LBs outside of Warner are terrible. DL outside of Bosa is terrible. And second, Moody. Wow. Big, busty bust. Currently 34th in FG percentage at 71.9%. Slight optimism: he was 13 of 14 until his high ankle sprain.
49ers I wouldn't be surprised to see gone next year: Not an exhaustive list, but...Moody. Juczsyk. Deebo.
Last interesting bit of trivia...for the past 22 seasons, the 49ers have either reached the NFC championship game or missed the playoffs entirely.
The incredible streak the 49ers extended after being eliminated from the playoffs: It’s been 22 seasons and counting!
lex24 - lex24 - 12-31-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1735660744' Wrote: 1735660744[/url]']
Giants dateline='[url=tel:1735625306' Wrote: 1735625306[/url]']
The good news after tonight’s loss - SF clinched a 4th place finish in the NFC West.
That means next year they will play the Bears, Giants and Browns rather than Dallas, Green Bay and Cincinnati. In addition, the Niners will play the usual suspects in the West, the NFC South and the AFC South.
Overall, this is a very light schedule compared to this year’s grinder.
It would be nice if they avoided Thursday and Monday night games, and given this year's record, I doubt they'll be featured outside of Sunday much. Their negative-day rest disparity (cumulative days fewer rest than their opponents) was -21, worst in the NFL this year and third worst since 2005. Over the past two seasons, they had a -41 day rest differential, twice as bad as the next worst rest differential. This season they played eight games with less rest than their opponents. Basically, they were completely screwed by the schedule makers.
From the article below:
"Although the total sample size is understandably limited by the number of games played, a 2018 study on rest disparity published in the Journal of Sports Economics concluded that a team suffering through a single day of rest disparity allows roughly 4.5 more points and is 25 percent less likely to win that game."
49ers' Brutal Schedule: Breaking Down the Unfair Rest Disparity Controversy
Niners also played teams coming off their bye weeks 4 times both this year and last. No other team did that either year. Not an excuse for an awful season. But a little perplexing.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - ca245 - 12-31-2024
What do people think of Purdy and how the 49ers should handle his contract situation? Until recently I felt it was a no-brainer: give him a big contract, the only issue was how big. But this is three games in a row that he’s thrown a 4th quarter interception and is starting to remind me of what Bill Walsh used to say about Steve Deberg: “He’s just good enough to get you beat.”
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 12-31-2024
(12-31-2024, 09:49 AM)ca245 Wrote: What do people think of Purdy and how the 49ers should handle his contract situation? Until recently I felt it was a no-brainer: give him a big contract, the only issue was how big. But this is three games in a row that he’s thrown a 4th quarter interception and is starting to remind me of what Bill Walsh used to say about Steve Deberg: “He’s just good enough to get you beat.”
5 years, $58 mms. a year. Last night's game was a microcosm of Purdy. He had the maximum 158.3 passer rating in the first half, second half (with two INTs), somewhere in the 70s. He's 14th in passer rating for QBs with at least 2,000 yards. That makes him average with average receivers.
Niners might want to force him to play the last year of his rookie contract. Maybe even franchise tag him.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Giants - 12-31-2024
Five far-too-early predictions….
SF will sign Purdy to a significant extension.
Samuel will be back - the restructure he signed before the 2024 season makes it too difficult to cut him before 2026.
Moody will face competition in the preseason; however, he will be the PK next year.
Hargrave, Ward and Brendel will not be back.
SF will be 12-5 next year.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - BobK - 12-31-2024
The last couple of years have proved Purdy to be and excellent near great QB. He played the last few games behind a makeshift line Show him the money
I love the 49ers going to the Super Bowl
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 12-31-2024
(12-31-2024, 10:13 AM)Giants Wrote: Five far-too-early predictions….
SF will sign Purdy to a significant extension.
Samuel will be back - the restructure he signed before the 2024 season makes it too difficult to cut him before 2026.
Moody will face competition in the preseason; however, he will be the PK next year.
Hargrave, Ward and Brendel will not be back.
SF will be 12-5 next year.
I think Deebo will be back with another restructured contract.
Question mark for me is Trent Williams, and whether he really wants to come back or not.
Also, Sorenson. Does he come back as Defensive Coordinator? And in a completely unrelated question, I'm broadly curious what Robert Saleh will be doing next year. And Jeff Ulbrich. And Brandon Staley.
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 12-31-2024
Below are the three lowest-graded 49ers players on offense for the Lions game.
Austen Pleasants, LT, 54.4, 32 snaps
Deebo Samuel, WR, 54.4, 53 snaps
Jacob Cowing, WR, 54.9, 5 snaps
Below are the three lowest-graded 49ers players on defense for the Lions game.
Sam Okuayinonu, DE, 29.0, 28 snaps
Evan Anderson, DT, 30.2, 31 snaps
Isaac Yiadom, CB, 35.7, 48 snaps
RE: 2023 Niners thread - Mick - 01-19-2025
Niners aren't getting Ulbrich at defensive coordinator, he just took that role with the Falcons.
The 49ers Miss Out on Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich