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RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-14-2020

https://youtu.be/BYTFk34nhoI

EVERYONE NEEDS TO WATCH THIS VIDEO. IT IS A BREAKDOWN FROM THE UK SCIENTIFIC AND MEDICAL LEADERSHIP AND WILL MAKE CLEAR JUST HOW SERIOUS THIS SITUATION IS. THE UNITED STATES MAY BE MOBILIZING BUT U.S. FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE NOT BEEN THIS TRANSPARENT WITH US. IT IS CLEAR WE ARE WAY UNDERESTIMATING THE EMERGENCY BECAUSE WE JUST CANT IMAGINE THE  REALITY HITTING US. WE AREN’T PREPARED EMOTIONALLY TO ACCEPT IT BUT IT IS HAPPENING.

We, self-included, have thought this week, let’s just shut everything down for a few weeks and re-assess, maybe our efforts to stop spread will have worked, and we can start getting back to normal. 

Watching this makes it abundantly clear every country but a handful have totally failed to do it and all those that did are going to experience what China did, but worse, because most can’t lock everyone inside their homes. We simply must do all we can to mirror China’s lockdown, which lasted about 2 months. So maybe absent total China lockdown we have to keep all activities closed for 3 months to flatten the curve?

The information in this video makes clear the worst of this is going to be in June, a full THREE MONTHS away, so our social distancing measures will need to go on that long. This means the NBA and NHL seasons will likely be canceled and maybe even MLB. UEFA and F1 could be as well, among others. Schools will not open until Fall, and the economy is going to be crushed, particularly the non-drive thru restaurant, travel and entertainment businesses, but retail as well, because if you are staying home most of the time, no need to buy clothes. If not entertaining, no need to buy furniture and trinkets to impress people.

We are passed the point of testing everyone, so the U.S. response around testing is quintessential closing the barn door after the horse is out. We now assume everyone has the virus and act accordingly. Being afraid of others is a good survival instinct we should all let kick in.

New York City should be on absolute lock down right now. They should close Penn and Grand Central. It is going to be apocalyptic there in a couple weeks. No place in the world I would less want to be.


RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-14-2020

This could be coming to a store near you:

Someone have an app to sign up for a shopping time at your grocery store of choice?  We simply can't allow people to go whenever. It will especially be horrible right when stores open in morning if we don't do something to manage.  Need some sort of crowd control.  Sign-up to shop, select time, go to store, get confirmed at door with ID or ticket code. Have 15 minutes to shop.

Most people are working from home, so going at hours you wouldn't ordinarily go shouldn't be a problem.  Either this or you could just wait in line for blocks and spend hours shopping to achieve social distancing...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JoshPade/status/1238469385024610306[/tweet]


RE: Covid-19 considerations - fullmetal - 03-14-2020

OF, believe it or not, the video didn't tell me anything new.  It's been a depressing last couple of days reading through the news and coming to the same conclusions.  Am I prepared to see reports of 1 million Americans dead over the next 12-18 months?  ...

The video didn't explicitly address one issue: reinfection.  There have been reports of people falling ill again (or testing positive) after appearing to recover (or testing negative).  This is not easily explained and could lead to real problems (more transmission) if recovered patients act with a false sense of immunity.  However, the analysis in the video could silently account for this given their projection of a summer peak.  

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-13/china-japan-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive

A tweet I read from an Italian used this phrase to describe govt efforts to limit contagion: "it is like war."  Well, it *is* a war of sorts; wars are large-scale efforts won by armies that work in sync.

We're about to see who's a team player and who's not.


RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-14-2020

In case anyone is interested in learning what all is contained in H.R. 6201 (the Families First Coronavirus Response Act), the "sweeping" bi-partisan bill passed by the House with the White House's support, you can see the bill here. Here's a Washington Post overview of the major provisions:

Quote:The agreement reached Friday is primarily aimed at expanding the safety net to cope with the potentially catastrophic economic impact of the coronavirus. In addition to ensuring free coronavirus testing, the plan would dramatically increase several benefits, particularly family medical leave and paid sick leave, while also bolstering unemployment insurance; spending on health insurance for the poor; and food programs for children and the elderly.

One of the biggest changes is a new paid sick leave guarantee for those impacted by the coronavirus, and reaching agreement on this issue was one of the final sticking points to a deal. Under the agreement, employers would be required to provide 14 days of paid sick leave at “not less” than two-thirds their regular rate. They would qualify for the benefit if they are sick and have to be quarantined or treated for coronavirus, or if they have to leave their jobs to take care of a family member who has coronavirus. Workers would also be eligible for paid sick leave if they have to stay home because they have a child whose school or childcare facility has closed due to the coronavirus.

The agreement also dramatically expands the existing paid family medical and leave program from its current form. Under existing law, employers are required to give “job protected” medical leave for up to 12 weeks — meaning workers cannot be fired — without additional pay. Under the Pelosi-Mnuchin plan, workers taking paid medical leave would also be paid at two-thirds of their typical rate of pay for the 12 weeks. This benefit, which applies to companies with fewer than 500 employees, would be available for a year for people affected by the coronavirus.

Congressional aides raised concerns that pushing these new benefits onto employers might bankrupt many businesses already trying to contend with the financial blow from coronavirus. Instead, the legislation gives employers a tax credit equal to 100 percent of paid sick leave wage benefits they have paid out. The plan also beefs up unemployment insurance by giving states additional funding to disburse should there be a significant rise in the ranks of the uninsured.

Additionally, the plan seeks to address fears that coronavirus could force many Americans to go without adequate food. The agreement provides $500 million to the women, infants, and children nutrition program; nullifies existing work requirements on the food stamp program; and provides $100 million in food grants to U.S. territories such as Puerto Rico and the Northern Mariana Islands. It provides additional funding to nutritional assistance programs for children and the elderly.

A controversial provision in the bill as originally introduced by House Democrats would have increased the percentage of Medicaid spending borne by the federal government by eight percentage points through Sept. 30, 2021. That would be a welcome relief to states, which could see an influx of Medicaid enrollees in a time of economic crisis. But the price tag for the federal government could have been vast — stretching easily into the tens of billions of dollars. Over the course of negotiations that 8 percentage point increase was reduced to 6.2 percentage points.



Stanford COVID-19 update - winflop - 03-14-2020

I am writing to share some further changes we need to make in our university operations as a result of further developments regarding the spread of COVID-19. Included are significant changes for our undergraduates who currently remain on campus, most of whom now will not be able to stay on campus for spring break and spring quarter.

I know how very difficult and deeply disappointing these steps will be for many students. We profoundly regret having to arrive at this place, which will mean further disruption for you. We are taking these new actions to support your health and safety, and to align our operations with quickly changing developments.

To bring you up to date:
We had hoped our intermediate steps would be sufficient, but it is clear that we need to take a next wave of actions to help slow the spread of COVID-19 in our community. These are very difficult actions to take, but we are asking individuals to make deep sacrifices for the good of those in our community who are most vulnerable to the threat of infection.

FINAL EXAMS: The provost is asking instructors to make winter quarter final exams optional for undergraduate students.
If a student chooses not to take a final exam, their grade should be calculated on work they have done in the course to date. It will be important for instructors to provide students with clear information about the choice that should be made, the deadline by which they have to choose, and how the final grade will be calculated if they choose not to take the exam. This guidance applies only to undergraduate students.

UNDERGRADUATE DINING BEGINNING SATURDAY: Due to the new county restrictions, beginning Saturday we will need to move to significantly modified meal service for undergraduates who are on campus. All students who are on a meal plan will need to come to their own dining hall. There, they will be given pre-filled to-go containers and bottled or canned drinks. Students will then need to leave the dining hall and eat outdoors, in their dorm room or elsewhere. There will be limitations on the numbers of students allowed in the serving area at any one time.

Graduate students who are on a meal plan will go through the same process, but we are strongly encouraging graduate students to prepare their own meals, in their own kitchens, to support social distancing. We do not expect changes to graduate housing availability.

SPRING UNDERGRADUATE HOUSING: For spring break and spring quarter, we will only be able to provide on-campus undergraduate housing and dining for a very limited number of students – those who have no other option than to be here. We will be prioritizing international students who cannot go home; students who have known severe health or safety risks; and students who are homeless. We are also planning to allow a small number of our residential staff who do not meet the previous criteria to remain on campus.

Using these criteria, we are currently evaluating the requests students submitted and expect to inform you by email by noon Saturday to confirm your on-campus housing.

Please know that for those who remain on campus, there will be a number of actions taken to further reduce the risk of infection spread. For example, there will be no programming for students, including no social events or parties; dining options will be limited; you may be asked to change residences; gyms and recreational centers will be closed; and students staying will be expected to remain on campus and not bring guests from off-campus.

If you are NOT in one of the above prioritized categories, we unfortunately need you to make plans to leave the campus as soon as possible but at the latest by Wednesday, March 18, at 5 p.m.  We encourage you to make your plans quickly, as the external environment is changing quickly and we do not know if or when additional restrictions may be imposed. Financial support is available through the Financial Aid Office for both travel and living expenses for students receiving financial aid. We will schedule a time later in the spring when you can come back to retrieve your belongings, if in-person classes do not resume during spring quarter.

REMOTE WORK: While we do not mandate telecommuting, we do want to increase the number of employees who are working remotely to the greatest extent possible, while doing so in a way that still supports the necessary operations of the university.

This also applies to graduate students and postdoctoral scholars in the research environment. We expect to provide further guidance on steps to be taken in the research environment in coming days.

Decisions about who can telecommute should be made in consultation with each Dean, Vice Provost, or Vice President (or their delegate) at the school or unit level. If an employee has been permitted to telecommute and chooses to work on campus instead, either intermittently or daily, that is currently acceptable.

UNIVERSITY EVENTS: Following today’s county directive, Stanford is now prohibiting gatherings of 35 people or more. However, if a group feels that their gathering of over 35 people is essential, it will require registration and approval by Stanford Environmental Health & Safety. There is a link on Stanford’s Health Alerts website to initiate an inquiry.

I recognize, deeply, the anxiety and uncertainty that this entire situation is creating for the members of our community. I greatly appreciate your understanding, your care for others, and your willingness to navigate these many disruptions to protect the health and safety of our community.

Sincerely,

Marc Tessier-Lavigne
President



RE: Stanford COVID-19 update - OutsiderFan - 03-14-2020

What happens with International students who can't go home due to travel bans?


RE: Covid-19 considerations - stupac2 - 03-14-2020

Quote:But the price tag for the federal government could have been vast — stretching easily into the tens of billions of dollars. Over the course of negotiations that 8 percentage point increase was reduced to 6.2 percentage points.


At what point do these people realize that interest rates are basically zero and it's going to take trillions of dollars to keep the economy afloat if we actually have to isolate to the same extent as China? Tens of billions is a drop in the bucket compared to what we'll need to stay anywhere close to the same level. Hopefully at some point they realize this, because we could easily be looking at something far worse than 2008-2009. Shutting down for months would rival the great depression!


RE: Covid-19 considerations - burger - 03-14-2020

(03-14-2020, 07:05 AM)stupac2 Wrote:  
Quote:But the price tag for the federal government could have been vast — stretching easily into the tens of billions of dollars. Over the course of negotiations that 8 percentage point increase was reduced to 6.2 percentage points.


At what point do these people realize that interest rates are basically zero and it's going to take trillions of dollars to keep the economy afloat if we actually have to isolate to the same extent as China? Tens of billions is a drop in the bucket compared to what we'll need to stay anywhere close to the same level. Hopefully at some point they realize this, because we could easily be looking at something far worse than 2008-2009. Shutting down for months would rival the great depression!

I agree.  This bill is an okay start, but it's like 5% of what's needed.  Unemployment insurance is not going to help business owners who go bankrupt or contractors or people who don't have jobs now.  What Congress needs to do is start sending checks to every American, or pretty soon large numbers of people won't even be able to afford food.  The job losses are already starting.  And some people are going to have to miss work or even quit to take care of kids who are out of school now (day care will soon become a thing of the past, also).  Before long lots of non-essential businesses will be shutting down either by fiat, like italy, or because people stop going out and spending money.  Unemployment is going to skyrocket. 

Yeah, we could come up with a byzantine means tested program so that we don't send checks to the rich, but there is no time for that now.  They can always claw back excess payments with targeted taxes later on.  Just start sending out the checks.


RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-14-2020

(03-14-2020, 01:15 AM)akiddoc Wrote:  Corona viruses gain entry to lung tissue by bonding to ACE-2 receptors. There are several drugs known to increase the production of ACE-2 receptors throughout the body, including ACE inhibitors, Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers (ARB'S), and Ibuprofen. The theory is that this allows an increase in the ability of Covid-19 to enter lung cells and leads to more likelihood of overwhelming infection. Nothing is yet proven. It's a theory. It is a concern, though.

I am also on an ARB. It is a cause for concern for me as well. I'm letting my physician and his consultants hash it out for the moment. 

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8.pdf

Thanks! Ibuprofen too? Looks like Tylenol just in case. My Kaiser doc hadn't heard of the concern regarding ACE inhibitors, didn't seem too interested. Switched to a calcium channel blocker for the near term just in case.


RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-14-2020

Folks, I don't necessarily disagree with your critiques, but remember that this is likely the first of several large federal interventions - the first and most important thing was to get bipartisan agreement on free testing and treatment and to provide incentives and support for families to stay home when sick or caring for sick individuals. Businesses won't be able to restart unless and until the number of sick comes down and employees are free to work, and Americans feeling free enough to go out and spend.

Also, there's a brobdingnagian, brobdingnagian difference between 200k deaths and 1.7m deaths (from the estimates in the source BC provided yesterday) in terms of the impact to businesses, etc. The variation among those figures will also dictate whether we are closing schools and businesses for 4-6 weeks or 4-6 months, which in turn will necessitate a very different federal legislative response. I suspect Congress may want to see how this unfolds before directing broader, long-term relief. 

Also, remember that in this highly partisan era, every additional provision you add to a bill increases the likelihood of someone saying no and becoming a vetogate. I'm thankful that cooler heads prevailed and something got passed as a first step. 

(And note that the Senate inexplicably decided to take the weekend off, so even this won't get passed until Monday, assuming 60+ agree to it without much reconciliation needed.)


RE: Stanford COVID-19 update - 2006alum - 03-14-2020

(03-14-2020, 06:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  What happens with International students who can't go home due to travel bans?

From the update winflop quoted above:

Quote:SPRING UNDERGRADUATE HOUSING: For spring break and spring quarter, we will only be able to provide on-campus undergraduate housing and dining for a very limited number of students – those who have no other option than to be here. We will be prioritizing international students who cannot go home; students who have known severe health or safety risks; and students who are homeless. We are also planning to allow a small number of our residential staff who do not meet the previous criteria to remain on campus.



RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-14-2020

Things can't be too bad in NYC as DeBlasio is intent to keep schools open:

https://abc7ny.com/education/covid-19-mayor-de-blasio-doubles-down-on-keeping-nyc-schools-open/6009426/


RE: Stanford COVID-19 update - winflop - 03-14-2020

We are deciding whether our son will even enroll at Santa Clara for Spring Quarter. I'm thinking it's highly likely that the entire quarter at many schools will be done online, and sorry but at the prices they're charging that's just not worth it. And they sure as heck should not be charging room & board...


RE: Covid-19 considerations - GoodGrief - 03-14-2020

(03-14-2020, 01:15 AM)akiddoc Wrote:  Corona viruses gain entry to lung tissue by bonding to ACE-2 receptors. There are several drugs known to increase the production of ACE-2 receptors throughout the body, including ACE inhibitors, Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers (ARB'S), and Ibuprofen. The theory is that this allows an increase in the ability of Covid-19 to enter lung cells and leads to more likelihood of overwhelming infection. Nothing is yet proven. It's a theory. It is a concern, though.

I am also on an ARB. It is a cause for concern for me as well. I'm letting my physician and his consultants hash it out for the moment. 

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8.pdf

Akiddoc (and Burger and the others who weighted in), thank you so much for your explanation. I just spoke with my mother's doctor and was able to be semi-coherent because of your explanation (otherwise, I would have said "somethingsomething coronavirus somethingsomething Ace Inhibitor ARB something")  My mother's doctor switched her off her Losartan ARB and put her on Hydralazine instead for now.


RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-14-2020

(03-14-2020, 08:33 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Things can't be too bad in NYC as DeBlasio is intent to keep schools open:

https://abc7ny.com/education/covid-19-mayor-de-blasio-doubles-down-on-keeping-nyc-schools-open/6009426/

I have no words for how reckless and stupid NYC's Mayor is being. I understand he's concerned about kids getting meals, but there are other ways to make that happen. Every other school district in the country has figured out a way.

One complicating matter is a lot of times in disasters restaurant owners come to the aid of communities of people who need food, but now the restaurants themselves are sending out pleas to customers to continue coming in, so they can keep their staffs.  Little do they know it's going to eventually get to the point nobody is even allowed at restaurants. OMG is this getting very scary very fast.


RE: Covid-19 considerations - rudruff - 03-14-2020

Long term closing of schools and day care isn't going to work because too many people can't stay home for that long. Not to mention people have different incentives to stay home. A couple that can both work from home are much more able to shoulder that burden than a single police officer or firefighter/nurse family. 

You also haven't dealt with the economic incentive people have to share the expense of daycare across multiple families. I work in day-care and this week has been non-stop calls of "we must close" to tear filled "you can't close" calls from parents. The "can't close" people are just going to call the laid-off day care workers and arrange "playdates" for groups of kids a couple of weeks in. If their choice is that or lose their job/house/business they are going to do it.


RE: Covid-19 considerations - cardcrimson - 03-14-2020

A very interesting take from Newt Gingrich, who happens to be living in Rome.

https://www.newsweek.com/newt-gingrich-i-am-italy-amid-coronavirus-crisis-america-must-act-now-act-big-opinion-1492270


RE: Covid-19 considerations - JJJ - 03-14-2020

(03-14-2020, 08:52 AM)GoodGrief Wrote:  
(03-14-2020, 01:15 AM)akiddoc Wrote:  Corona viruses gain entry to lung tissue by bonding to ACE-2 receptors. There are several drugs known to increase the production of ACE-2 receptors throughout the body, including ACE inhibitors, Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers (ARB'S), and Ibuprofen. The theory is that this allows an increase in the ability of Covid-19 to enter lung cells and leads to more likelihood of overwhelming infection. Nothing is yet proven. It's a theory. It is a concern, though.

I am also on an ARB. It is a cause for concern for me as well. I'm letting my physician and his consultants hash it out for the moment. 

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8.pdf

Akiddoc (and Burger and the others who weighted in), thank you so much for your explanation. I just spoke with my mother's doctor and was able to be semi-coherent because of your explanation (otherwise, I would have said "somethingsomething coronavirus somethingsomething Ace Inhibitor ARB something")  My mother's doctor switched her off her Losartan ARB and put her on Hydralazine instead for now.
Please keep us posted on what you have hashed out. Thanks


RE: Stanford COVID-19 update - Spiny_Norman - 03-14-2020

(03-14-2020, 08:49 AM)winflop Wrote:  We are deciding whether our son will even enroll at Santa Clara for Spring Quarter. I'm thinking it's highly likely that the entire quarter at many schools will be done online, and sorry but at the prices they're charging that's just not worth it. And they sure as heck should not be charging room & board...

I wonder if some percentage of Stanford undergrads will just stop out.


RE: Covid-19 considerations - M T - 03-14-2020

On the Cardboard, we've discussed these two letters that suggest investigating whether any correlation exists between using ACE inhibitors (ACEI,  including drugs that typically end in "pril") or ARB drugs (typically ending in "artan")
  COVID-19 and the cardiovascular system
  Re: Preventing a covid-19 pandemic: ACE inhibitors as a potential risk factor for fatal Covid-19
As I understand these, they point out theoretical reasons there might be a relation between COVID-19 infection/outcomes and ACEI and ARB usage.  Neither had any supporting data that I noticed.

[added 3/15] The Council on Hypertension of the European Society of Cardiology highlights the lack of any evidence supporting harmful effect of ACE-I and ARB in the context of the pandemic COVID-19 outbreak. The Council on Hypertension strongly recommend that physicians and patients should continue treatment with their usual anti-hypertensive therapy...

ACE inhibitors and ARBs are often prescribed to reduce hypertension.  ARBs are used for diabetic patients.

For the TL;DR crowd [Image: blinking12.gif] Of the 4 hardest hit countries, the highest CFR corresponds to high use of ACE Inhibitors; the lowest CFR corresponds to lowest use of ACE Inhibitors.  No obvious correlation for ARB.  Small sample, weak data, unreviewed


I expect that any of the 4 worst-hit countries could supply data as to outcomes of patients that take particular medications.  I might speculate the fact that this hasn't been done might indicate that there is no correlation.

Since we don't have that information, I looked for whatever information I had access to. I took the 4 worst-hit countries and looked at published information for their drugs of choice for hypertension.

Here, CFR (case fatality rate) indicates deaths/confirmed cases including active cases (ie, an underestimate of CFR).  Data from WHO sitrep for 13-Mar.

For Iran, the only data I found was for a sample (n=300) from a few villages in one region.  Apparently Iran has had a recent push to get hypertension patients registered in an online database.  That data may be available but I didn't see it.

Please remember that this is not medical advice.  Talk to your doctor to determine what is best for you.  I am not a physician, nor a medical researcher, nor a statistician.  This data has not been reviewed or validated by anyone in that field.   There may be errors (let me know!).

The numbers in the ACEI column indicates the percentage of hypertension drug usage in that country that are ACE Inhibitors.  The numbers in the ARB column indicate the percentage for ARBs for that purpose.  If the source indicated a combination of drugs are used, then if one of them is either of these classes, then I added it in.  

CountryCases 13-MarCFR 13-Mar65+CFR%/65+%ACEIARB
China809913.9%11.3%34.5%9.0%21.7%
Italy151136.7%22.3%30.0%49.5%38.8%
Iran100754.3%6.0%71.7%(6%)(4%)
Korea79790.8%15.9%5.0%1.9%43.3%

[added 3/15] The demographics of each country is different. Since the death rate appears to be sensitive to age, I have added a column to try to help account for the demographics.
The "CFR%/65+%" column is the ratio of the CFR and the country's 65+ population. If the CFR were 5% and 10% of the population was 65+, then that column would show 50%.

ACE Inhibitor & ARB usage:

China:
2017 data for hypertension prescriptions in China indicates 9% of hypertension prescriptions are for ACEI and 21.7% for ARB, 9.3% Beta blockers, 45.7% for calcium channel blockers, 4.5% diuretics, 5.1% traditional compound, 4.7% fixed dose compound, 0.35 centrally active drugs.

In Italy, ACEI has the highest use.
  2016 study:  (initial treatment) ACEI 38.1%, beta blocker alone 14.2%, ARB alone 32.8%, ACEI+diuretic 11.4%, calcium channel blocker alone 10.0%, fixed dose ARB+diuretic 6.0%,

In Iran, I didn't find data on drugs used generally.  Here are Iranian recommendations regarding hypertension.
  I did find this article giving hypertension drug use in some villages in one small region(n=300): 60% beta blockers, 25% calcium channel blocker, 6% ACEI, 4% ARB, 5% diuretic.
  2002 study.
  A 2019 news article indicated about 22% have hypertension.  Of those, only 60% are aware of it.  Of those, only half receive medication.  Another article..

KoreaARB became the most widely used drug in 2016 (43.3%),  calcium channel blockers (42.8%).  Beta blockers 7.3%, diuretics 4.3%, ACEI 1.9% Others 0.3%   
(40% prescribed 1 class of meds, 42% 2 classes, 18% 3+ classes)