I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed!

I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Printable Version

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RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Mick - 11-05-2018

(11-05-2018, 05:18 AM)JPR36 Wrote:
(11-05-2018, 04:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote: Just a few comments on the immediate posts above:

1) I would also like to see Shaw get back to his power-running system, as unsexy as it might be. It worked; and the entire stretch of excellence we have seen from, say, 2009 till today was built on this philosophy. When it worked, it was a thing of beauty.

2) But it isn't working today; and as I noted above, this is a combination of unsuccessful recruiting and deficient player development in key positions. We appear to have the O-line talent on paper (how we were all drooling when Little and Sarrell signed on), but still have a dysfunctional O-line (coaching? player development? toughness?). On the front seven, we appear to be thin on talent and depth, or is this also merely player development and coaching? Whatever the case, it points back to COACHING! No way around this.

3) I accept the explanations that Shaw has been better in odd years and less stellar in even years due to the home-away scheduling of strong opponents (Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame and UCLA all away in even years; in fact, we have 5 out of 9 conference games away in even years and 5 out of 9 conference games at home in odd years, so there is also that handicap in even years). But we also have a strong WSU program and USC away in odd years, so that partially offsets the advantage.

4) Also, there is no denying that we are losing more and more games as the Shaw era progresses. 2015 was a spike against the overall trend, but here is the raw tally of losses since the 2010 season (Harbaugh's last):
2010 1
2011 2
2012 2
2013 3
2014 5
2015 2
2016 3
2017 5
2018 4 and counting

In the four years from 2010 to 2013, we had a total of 8 losses (on average, two per season); in the four years from 2014 to 2017, we accumulated 15 losses (or almost twice as many and nearly 4 per season).

Yes, the conference competition has improved; but it is unlikely that all FBS programs nationwide have improved; and we had some pretty impressive final rankings in the earlier years. 2015, again, is a bit of an outlier in this trend.

2010 #4 Orange Bowl
2011 #7 Fiesta Bowl
2012 #7 Rose Bowl
2013 #11 Rose Bowl
2014 NR Foster Farms Bowl
2015 #3 Rose Bowl
2016 #12 Sun Bowl
2017 #20 Alamo Bowl
2018 NR ????

Many other key stats underscore this trend (points scored vs. points given up, total rushing yards vs. rushing yards given up, etc.). In the years from 2010-2013, we had 4 straight BCS bowls. From 2014-2017, we had one (2015); and 2018 will certainly be a low level bowl.

Whenever these details are highlighted, I hear that we should just remember the Teevens/Harris years and quit griping. Yes, 8-4 and 7-5 are still much preferable to Walt's last season at 1-11. But I believe it would be a mistake to start comparing our current situation with past epic failures; and I sure don't think Shaw is doing this. The numbers don't lie: the program relative to the competition is regressing. This is a shame; and right now, I am not confident that this will be fixed in the near future. Until the root causes are addressed and fixed, I foresee seasons of between 4 and 6 losses in our immediate future (which matches nicely with 2017 and 2018). I sure hope I am wrong; I always love it when Shaw proves me wrong. But this year he proved me wrong in the opposite direction. I predicted 9-3 at the beginning of the season. I was wrong.

I believe things have just gotten a bit too comfortable in the halls of Cardinal football. A bit of regression to the mean is normal; and the sky is certainly not falling, at least not yet. But if Shaw ever wants to sniff a top ten seasonal ranking again, big changes will be necessary, both in the coaching staff and the way we recruit. We will probably end this season unranked for the second time in five years. I hope this is not the new normal.

Yeah, we seem to be regressing back to the days when 7-5 was considered a pretty successful season. As I posted before, the team this year seems to resemble the teams from the bad old days. Good pass, no run, and a mediocre defense. Also, when the game is on the line against a good team, you can expect them to make the plays necessary to win rather than us.
Like you said, I hope this isn't the new norm.

Five losses per year was Tyrone Willingham's average (5.1, to be exact). Just a heads up that Shaw's regression is indeed a decline.

lex24 - lex24 - 11-05-2018

Jessie’s and Joes. They need to recruit some Skov’s, Martinez’s. Gardner’s Anderson’s., Phillip’s, Etc etc etc.

O line needs to get healthy and the depth needs to improve

(11-05-2018, 07:44 AM)ADPinWDC Wrote: Good analysis above about Shaw Era. He has NOT lost to Cal.
If we lose to Cal, is that the swing point for Shaw "SHAKING IT UP"...?
Just "shaking" means little without a direction.
I believe other teams are adapting faster, rather than "sticking to a philosophy".
They have seen Shaw's tendencies and amped up their Defensive gameplans to adapt.
Shaw adapted somewhat this year by letting KJ THROW.
What does Shaw do when Stanford lands in the Vegas Bowl at 7-5? And gets thrashed by Fresno St.
How do conversations shift with recruits when we are not going to the Rose Bowl, and NDAM is in the Playoffs?
"We need to execute better?" Is that the upside?

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - ChicagoCard - 11-05-2018

Quote:What does Shaw do when Stanford lands in the Vegas Bowl at 7-5? And gets thrashed by Fresno St.

This comment helps to refocus my hopes for the next three games and an 8-4 record. Or would that land Stanford in the Vegas Bowl if only one Pac-12 team makes the elite 6 bowls? If the players don't quit on themselves or the coaches, and the team gets healthier, they could be a pretty formidable December-level bowl team.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Phogge - 11-05-2018

One good line from today's TOS Bowlsby/Shaw thread:

"We should have all known we had problems when Shaw turned up for the interview in a turtleneck."

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Austroturf - 11-05-2018

(11-05-2018, 10:37 AM)Phogge Wrote: One good line from today's TOS Bowlsby/Shaw thread:

"We should have all known we had problems when Shaw turned up for the interview in a turtleneck."

Where is this from?

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - cardcrimson - 11-05-2018

(11-05-2018, 11:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-05-2018, 10:37 AM)Phogge Wrote: One good line from today's TOS Bowlsby/Shaw thread:

"We should have all known we had problems when Shaw turned up for the interview in a turtleneck."

Where is this from?

https://247sports.com/college/stanford/Board/105277/Contents/A-twist-of-fate-124235196/#M124295294

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - d4cohn - 11-05-2018

(11-05-2018, 11:36 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(11-05-2018, 11:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-05-2018, 10:37 AM)Phogge Wrote: One good line from today's TOS Bowlsby/Shaw thread:

"We should have all known we had problems when Shaw turned up for the interview in a turtleneck."

Where is this from?

https://247sports.com/college/stanford/Board/105277/Contents/A-twist-of-fate-124235196/#M124295294

The people on that chat saying we are going to go 3-9 next year, or for four straight years. Let me simply say, I will believe it when I see it, and I really don't see it.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Austroturf - 11-05-2018

(11-05-2018, 11:36 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(11-05-2018, 11:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-05-2018, 10:37 AM)Phogge Wrote: One good line from today's TOS Bowlsby/Shaw thread:

"We should have all known we had problems when Shaw turned up for the interview in a turtleneck."

Where is this from?

https://247sports.com/college/stanford/Board/105277/Contents/A-twist-of-fate-124235196/#M124295294

Thanks!

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Phogge - 11-05-2018

(11-05-2018, 11:36 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(11-05-2018, 11:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-05-2018, 10:37 AM)Phogge Wrote: One good line from today's TOS Bowlsby/Shaw thread:

"We should have all known we had problems when Shaw turned up for the interview in a turtleneck."

Where is this from?

Mr.Cohn... FYI, most of the posts over there are tongue in cheek. I would rate The Cardboard a 9 of 10 on the Serious Scale. Thunderdome is about 1.33 on the same scale. Small group of guys who hang at tailgate and get together for lunch. Mostly ex college athletes. Most are bald.

https://247sports.com/college/stanford/Board/105277/Contents/A-twist-of-fate-124235196/#M124295294

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - BostonCard - 11-05-2018

Yup, Shaw's terminal decline is obvious because the last time he won the Pac-12 coach of the year was *checks notes* last year.

I mean, how bad does a coach have to be to only win it in half the years he's been coaching at the school (I think it is a fair bet he doesn't get it this year).

BC

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - qwerty49 - 11-05-2018

Willie Taggart just handed playcalling over to his OC. His team is struggling at 4-5 and plays ND next. But he said it gave him more time to see what was going on with the rest of the team on the sidelines.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25187590/florida-state-coach-willie-taggart-gives-playcall-duties-offensive-coordinator

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - winflop - 11-06-2018

(11-05-2018, 10:35 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote:
Quote:What does Shaw do when Stanford lands in the Vegas Bowl at 7-5? And gets thrashed by Fresno St.

This comment helps to refocus my hopes for the next three games and an 8-4 record. Or would that land Stanford in the Vegas Bowl if only one Pac-12 team makes the elite 6 bowls? If the players don't quit on themselves or the coaches, and the team gets healthier, they could be a pretty formidable December-level bowl team.

Stanford is going to drop in the bowl selection whether it's 7-5 or 8-4 because bowl games can "drop down" to pick any team within one loss of the team with the best conference record (remaining). We don't travel well to non-NY6 bowl games, and bowls are all about $$ - travel and tickets.

Sun Bowl is the best we can hope for. I'll watch on TV no matter where we end up.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Austroturf - 11-06-2018

(11-05-2018, 05:47 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Yup, Shaw's terminal decline is obvious because the last time he won the Pac-12 coach of the year was *checks notes* last year.

I mean, how bad does a coach have to be to only win it in half the years he's been coaching at the school (I think it is a fair bet he doesn't get it this year).

BC

So we have the past record of an undeniably successful coach up against the equally undeniable stats that show a decline in fundamental units of the offense and defense. These are not mutually exclusive. I am no Shaw-basher, but until he has fixed the defects we see on the O-line and D-line, his number of Pac-12 COTY-awards will remain at 4.

As an aside, I was very surprised he won last year. Yes, there was the bad start (1-2) that Shaw was able to convert into a north division title at 9-3 by the end of the season. So that's something. Still, I was surprised they passed on Petersen and Helton. For one, Petersen failed to get the award in the year he won the Pac-12 championship because McIntyre's miracle in Boulder (south division champs) was seen as more impressive (and rightly so). But as a result of Coach Pete's miss in 2016, I thought he would get the nod for 2017 for the team's 10-3 record and New Year's Six Bowl against Penn State. He has built a strong program at Washington and has yet to get the Pac-12 COTY award. Helton won the conference title last year, beating Stanford twice. Why he was snubbed remains a bit of a mystery. I don't know who does the voting and how it transpires; but Shaw's award last year, though very welcome, certainly surprised me.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - cardcrimson - 11-06-2018

(11-06-2018, 08:57 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-05-2018, 05:47 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Yup, Shaw's terminal decline is obvious because the last time he won the Pac-12 coach of the year was *checks notes* last year.

I mean, how bad does a coach have to be to only win it in half the years he's been coaching at the school (I think it is a fair bet he doesn't get it this year).

BC
So we have the past record of an undeniably successful coach up against the equally undeniable stats that show a decline in fundamental units of the offense and defense. These are not mutually exclusive. I am no Shaw-basher, but until he has fixed the defects we see on the O-line and D-line, his number of Pac-12 COTY-awards will remain at 4.

As an aside, I was very surprised he won last year. Yes, there was the bad start (1-2) that Shaw was able to convert into a north division title at 9-3 by the end of the season. So that's something. Still, I was surprised they passed on Petersen and Helton. For one, Petersen failed to get the award in the year he won the Pac-12 championship because McIntyre's miracle in Boulder (south division champs) was seen as more impressive (and rightly so). But as a result of Coach Pete's miss in 2016, I thought he would get the nod for 2017 for the team's 10-3 record and New Year's Six Bowl against Penn State. He has built a strong program at Washington and has yet to get the Pac-12 COTY award. Helton won the conference title last year, beating Stanford twice. Why he was snubbed remains a bit of a mystery. I don't know who does the voting and how it transpires; but Shaw's award last year, though very welcome, certainly surprised me.

Very good points. I heard that the Helton actually won the award, but the Pac-12's general counsel overruled the vote and instead gave it to Shaw.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - george - 11-06-2018

I'm surprised that no one has brought up the obvious -- the awful black trim around the numbers on this year's uniforms. The last time Stanford introduced black outlines on numbers was in the first year of Buddyball. There's no greater indication that we're teetering at the precipice of another dark time in Stanford than this. Forget hiring new coaches, recruiting different players, or meddling with Coach Shaw's personality. If we're serious about winning the Pac-12 next year, ditch the new uniforms!

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Austroturf - 11-06-2018

(11-06-2018, 09:30 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Very good points. I heard that the Helton actually won the award, but the Pac-12's general counsel overruled the vote and instead gave it to Shaw.

Interesting. I had not heard that angle before. I cannot think of anything Helton might have done to deserve the snub, but I also have no insight into the politics of the Pac-12. Helton seemed like a no-brainer after getting to the Rose Bowl in 2016 and winning the Pac-12 in 2017. And Coach Pete is certainly due at some time. Leach was actually co-winner with Shaw in 2015 and will certainly win again this year if he can take the Pac-12; but UW may have other ideas, and then Petersen's hour may have finally arrived.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - qwerty49 - 11-06-2018

(11-06-2018, 11:42 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-06-2018, 09:30 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Very good points. I heard that the Helton actually won the award, but the Pac-12's general counsel overruled the vote and instead gave it to Shaw.

Interesting. I had not heard that angle before. I cannot think of anything Helton might have done to deserve the snub, but I also have no insight into the politics of the Pac-12. Helton seemed like a no-brainer after getting to the Rose Bowl in 2016 and winning the Pac-12 in 2017. And Coach Pete is certainly due at some time. Leach was actually co-winner with Shaw in 2015 and will certainly win again this year if he can take the Pac-12; but UW may have other ideas, and then Petersen's hour may have finally arrived.

He's making a joke (and a pretty good one, I thought). Referring to the replay incident in the Wazzu/$C game.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Austroturf - 11-06-2018

(11-06-2018, 11:48 AM)qwerty49 Wrote:
(11-06-2018, 11:42 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-06-2018, 09:30 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Very good points. I heard that the Helton actually won the award, but the Pac-12's general counsel overruled the vote and instead gave it to Shaw.

Interesting. I had not heard that angle before. I cannot think of anything Helton might have done to deserve the snub, but I also have no insight into the politics of the Pac-12. Helton seemed like a no-brainer after getting to the Rose Bowl in 2016 and winning the Pac-12 in 2017. And Coach Pete is certainly due at some time. Leach was actually co-winner with Shaw in 2015 and will certainly win again this year if he can take the Pac-12; but UW may have other ideas, and then Petersen's hour may have finally arrived.

He's making a joke (and a pretty good one, I thought). Referring to the replay incident in the Wazzu/$C game.

Thanks for the clarification. That went straight over my head. Subtle.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - Phogge - 11-06-2018

It may be time for a Cardboard version of Thunderdome, of course rated G.

RE: I really really really want Coach Shaw to Succeed! - BostonCard - 11-06-2018

(11-06-2018, 02:51 PM)Phogge Wrote: It may be time for a Cardboard version of Thunderdome, of course rated G.

We tried that, but Doc couldn't take it (I say, noting the irony).

BC