Bowl Projections - Printable Version
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RE: Bowl Projections - terry - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 02:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote: My understanding of the Foster Farms disappointment was that the bowl organizers expected a bump in attendance because Stanford was so close. But it was Christmas break, so all the students were gone, and the fan-base was not bunched within convenient driving distance as with more local universities.
Also, it was really, really cold on the day of the Foster Farms Bowl. If any local fans were on the fence about going to the game, the weather may have kept them home.
CardinalSagehen - CardinalSagehen - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 02:38 PM)terry Wrote:(11-26-2018, 02:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote: My understanding of the Foster Farms disappointment was that the bowl organizers expected a bump in attendance because Stanford was so close. But it was Christmas break, so all the students were gone, and the fan-base was not bunched within convenient driving distance as with more local universities.
Also, it was really, really cold on the day of the Foster Farms Bowl. If any local fans were on the fence about going to the game, the weather may have kept them home.
Yep, it was very cold, windy and rainy in the Bay Area in 2014. There was even some hail, if I recall correctly. I was planning to pick up tickets on Stubhub, but I bailed when I saw the weather report.
It now looks like 6 out 7 pundits are projecting Oregon in the Holiday (not us), and the 7th has Utah (on the assumption that Wazzu doesn't make the NY6 and heads to the Alamo). See https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/index.ssf/2018/11/bowl_projections_for_oregon_du.html. Among these 7 projections, we are slated for the Redbox Bowl in 4 and the Vegas Bowl in 3. Presumably, the 4 that have us in the Redbox are predicting a win @ Cal and the other 3 are predicting a loss.
If the pundits have it right, no Bowl with any choice in the matter will opt for a small fan base over a large one, regardless of conference or head-to-head records. The discussion of Oregon's prior appearances in the Holiday and our lack thereof is practically moot - their appearances were in 2000, 2005 and 2008. I think the only history that matters is whether you've been there in the last year or two.
After seeing the game times, I've stopped caring about the Holiday Bowl. The Redbox's 12 noon kickoff on NYE is more appealing than the Holiday's 4pm kickoff. And I'm most likely to attend the Redbox.
But first, BEAT CAL!
RE: Bowl Projections - BostonCard - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 02:35 PM)2006alum Wrote: Thus, I would put forward that the better measure is what we have now versus what we had prior to his negotiation of the conference's media and bowl packages. On that metric, the PAC-12 is in much better shape, especially since the product on both the football field and the basketball court has dropped off significantly over the last few seasons. There's a reason why the university presidents are quite happy with him.
That's not quite the right metric either, as it has ignored secular trends going on in college football since 2009 when Scott took over. The real question is how much more Scott would have been able to negotiate over a "replacement commissioner", which is not entirely clear. I agree that a lot of the criticism of Scott is overwrought, but I could have negotiated a better package now than what we had back before Scott took over.
With the value of sports product decelerating and perhaps even reversing, the real value of a commissioner will become apparent. It's easy to make money when the pie is enlarging; we'll see what happens when the pie is stable or shrinking.
BC
RE: Bowl Projections - CTcard - 11-26-2018
(11-26-2018, 02:01 PM)winflop Wrote: If you're right that other conferences pick the teams rather than the bowls, that's yet another reason to fire Larry Scott!!
It's from 2015 but here's an article on the selection process that makes it clear that it is the bowl game's choice https://www.cougcenter.com/wsu-cougars-football/2015/11/16/9748014/pac-12-bowl-selection-process-tie-ins
Another 2016 article refers to the bowl selecting teams https://watchstadium.com/news/pac-12-bowl-tie-ins-selection-process-11-01-2016/
As I said, I think you are correct, but neither of those sources is particularly authoritative.
You did get me reading a lot more about the situation.
2006alum Wrote:Assuming this disparity is true, is the reason why the Big Ten and the SEC got to pick their bowl order and we don't because we have a conference commissioner who negotiates weakly, or because he has a conference product that leaves him with a weaker hand to negotiate?
I don't think it is either - though I don't really know.
I think that in each case the situation is what the university presidents/ADs wanted.
The Pac 12 schools were happy to keep the conference out as a middle-man, but backed that up with the no-more-than-one-loss-differential rule. The SEC and Big Ten simply made fewer rules but used the conference office as the arbiter of disputes.
The Big 12 seems to follow roughly the Pac 12 scenario.
The ACC is complicated. A first tier is strictly by conference finish (though I don't know how they determine who is #2).
The next tier has the schools, conference, and bowls getting together to slot teams by "consensus".
A final tier has bowls picking out of whomever is left.
RE: Bowl Projections - ChicagoCard - 11-28-2018
With WSU at #13 in the latest CFP rankings, the only obvious scenario where they move up without being caught by others is if Memphis were to upset UCF and Oklahoma were to beat Texas. Short of that, unlikely, Stanford gets bumped down a notch in the bowl pecking order and it's even likelier they face Utah St or Fresno St. Or am I wrong. I was hoping they'd face a Big-10 or ACC opponent in the Holiday, Redbox or Sun...
RE: Bowl Projections - CrazedZooChimp - 11-28-2018
My vague memory is that there are only a portion of the bowls that can deviate from the exact order (maybe to Sun), but the lower ones have to follow the order. I also remember that exceptions are allowed in cases where a team was just recently in a Bowl (ie. we probably won't go to the Sun again, we were just there in 2016).
I think the plusses we have compared to Oregon would be that they have been to the Holiday (although not recently), and that Oregon's season is as much or more disappointing than ours. Remember, they were thinking they had a shot to win the conference too, and were at one point ranked as high as 12.
(11-26-2018, 02:27 AM)Austroturf Wrote: My understanding of the Foster Farms disappointment was that the bowl organizers expected a bump in attendance because Stanford was so close. But it was Christmas break, so all the students were gone, and the fan-base was not bunched within convenient driving distance as with more local universities. So there was no bump, and Maryland fans actually outnumbered the Stanford fans. But, yes, as can be seen, the attendance numbers have flagged regardless of the participants. If there was any other beef, I am unaware of the causes.
Hmm, that's not how I remember it. I remember there being basically zero Maryland fans at that game, and part of the problem with the game being that Maryland was a bad 7-5 who seemed pretty outmatched by us...
RE: Bowl Projections - BostonCard - 11-28-2018
Also, not that it matters formally, but we did beat Oregon head-to-head.
BC
RE: Bowl Projections - ChicagoCard - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 09:41 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: With WSU at #13 in the latest CFP rankings, the only obvious scenario where they move up without being caught by others is if Memphis were to upset UCF and Oklahoma were to beat Texas. Short of that, unlikely, Stanford gets bumped down a notch in the bowl pecking order and it's even likelier they face Utah St or Fresno St. Or am I wrong. I was hoping they'd face a Big-10 or ACC opponent in the Holiday, Redbox or Sun...
Commenting on my own post, apparently Memphis and UCF already played this year to a 31-30 win for UCF. And now UCF is without their star QB. For whatever that's worth. UCF is currently #8 in the CFP standings, Texas #14 (WSU #13).
CardinalSagehen - CardinalSagehen - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 11:02 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote:(11-28-2018, 09:41 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: With WSU at #13 in the latest CFP rankings, the only obvious scenario where they move up without being caught by others is if Memphis were to upset UCF and Oklahoma were to beat Texas. Short of that, unlikely, Stanford gets bumped down a notch in the bowl pecking order and it's even likelier they face Utah St or Fresno St. Or am I wrong. I was hoping they'd face a Big-10 or ACC opponent in the Holiday, Redbox or Sun...
Commenting on my own post, apparently Memphis and UCF already played this year to a 31-30 win for UCF. And now UCF is without their star QB. For whatever that's worth. UCF is currently #8 in the CFP standings, Texas #14 (WSU #13).
A few responses:
1) I don't think the UCF/Memphis game matters. The highest-ranked team from the Group of 5 conferences is guaranteed a spot in the NY6. So it's either UCF or the Mountain West champ (Boise or Fresno).
2) Oklahoma/Texas may be irrelevant, too. If Oklahoma wins, they're likely to stay ahead of OSU, and Texas will replace them in the Sugar Bowl as the next-best team from the Big 12. If Texas wins, then they'll go to the Sugar, but Oklahoma will probably keep another spot in the NY6.
3) You are right that Wazzu seems to be out of the picture for the NY6 now, regardless of the outcomes of this weekend's games. However, I don't think this has much bearing on our bowl destination.
The main thing that Wazzu's ranking does to us is practically guarantee that we are NOT going to the Holiday Bowl. The Alamo will now take Wazzu, and the Holiday will take Utah (or possibly Oregon if Utah gets creamed in the CCG). Exactly none of the 7 bowl projections that I saw had us going to the Holiday before the latest rankings, and now they certainly won't because Utah is in the mix. So it would be a big surprise if the Holiday took us.
However, we are still a good bet for the Redbox (vs. Iowa or Wisconsin) if we beat Cal, because the Redbox will probably prefer us over Oregon and/or they will play nicely with the Sun Bowl, which had us just two years ago. And if we lose to Cal, ironically, we would face a better and higher-ranked opponent in Boise St. or Fresno St. in the Las Vegas Bowl. But I'm pulling for the Redbox, obviously.
I always wanted us to get to Levi's Stadium this year, but not exactly in this way...
RE: CardinalSagehen - ChicagoCard - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 11:38 AM)CardinalSagehen Wrote: 1) I don't think the UCF/Memphis game matters. The highest-ranked team from the Group of 5 conferences is guaranteed a spot in the NY6. So it's either UCF or the Mountain West champ (Boise or Fresno).
Thanks, great point. A loss to Cal would be bad enough, but if it also were to mean having to play a good Mountain West team in a bowl game then that'd be another loss. Better to get healthy somewhat and play Stanford's best game of the year in the Redbox vs Iowa or Wiscy. If they were to go to the sun, who would be the likely opponent? I've seen Duke mentioned.
RE: CardinalSagehen - CrazedZooChimp - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 11:45 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote:(11-28-2018, 11:38 AM)CardinalSagehen Wrote: 1) I don't think the UCF/Memphis game matters. The highest-ranked team from the Group of 5 conferences is guaranteed a spot in the NY6. So it's either UCF or the Mountain West champ (Boise or Fresno).
Thanks, great point. A loss to Cal would be bad enough, but if it also were to mean having to play a good Mountain West team in a bowl game then that'd be another loss. Better to get healthy somewhat and play Stanford's best game of the year in the Redbox vs Iowa or Wiscy. If they were to go to the sun, who would be the likely opponent? I've seen Duke mentioned.
Don't know who is most likely, but most recent ESPN predictions have Virginia, and CBS predictions have BC.
RE: Bowl Projections - Spiny_Norman - 11-28-2018
Another factor to consider - timing.
Las Vegas Bowl is December 15. Only 2 weeks after the final game of the season. At the end of Finals Week.
Redbox Bowl and Sun Bowl are December 31. The team would have to practice through Xmas, but at least the players would get some time to rest and heal and recharge their batteries before playing one more game.
RE: Bowl Projections - OutsiderFan - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 12:28 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Another factor to consider - timing.
Las Vegas Bowl is December 15. Only 2 weeks after the final game of the season. At the end of Finals Week.
Redbox Bowl and Sun Bowl are December 31. The team would have to practice through Xmas, but at least the players would get some time to rest and heal and recharge their batteries before playing one more game.
I don't know why all the pessimism with WSU. They are #13, and likely to move up into the Top 12 in the final rankings after UCF loses to Memphis and/or Texas loses to Oklahoma.
Stanford is a pretty compelling team to have in your bowl game, much more so than Utah. I wouldn't be so sure Oregon fans are going to travel to the Holiday Bowl like Stanford fans who have never been there would.
RE: CardinalSagehen - BostonCard - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 11:38 AM)CardinalSagehen Wrote: A few responses:
2) Oklahoma/Texas may be irrelevant, too. If Oklahoma wins, they're likely to stay ahead of OSU, and Texas will replace them in the Sugar Bowl as the next-best team from the Big 12. If Texas wins, then they'll go to the Sugar, but Oklahoma will probably keep another spot in the NY6.
A narrow Oklahoma win over Texas, coupled with a dominant win by (the) Ohio State might be enough to allow the committee to leapfrog tOSU over OU, with Texas falling back.
Remember, the Big12 has been screwed before by the committee at the last minute.
BC
RE: Bowl Projections - CTcard - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 02:19 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I don't know why all the pessimism with WSU. They are #13, and likely to move up into the Top 12 in the final rankings after UCF loses to Memphis and/or Texas loses to Oklahoma.
Two problems with your scenario.
1. Texas is already behind WSU at #14. Texas losing will not help WSU move up.
2. One group of 5 team is guaranteed to be in one of the NY 6 bowls, so even if UCF loses and no group of 5 team is above WSU, some group of 5 team still gets in over WSU.
WSU looks to be in a tight spot. They might move up over UW if Utah beats UW, putting Utah in the Rose Bowl and WSU in another NY6. The committee might reconsider their ranking of three loss Penn State, LSU, or Florida versus two loss WSU, but that seems unlikely.
RE: Bowl Projections - qwerty49 - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 02:19 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(11-28-2018, 12:28 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Another factor to consider - timing.
Las Vegas Bowl is December 15. Only 2 weeks after the final game of the season. At the end of Finals Week.
Redbox Bowl and Sun Bowl are December 31. The team would have to practice through Xmas, but at least the players would get some time to rest and heal and recharge their batteries before playing one more game.
I don't know why all the pessimism with WSU. They are #13, and likely to move up into the Top 12 in the final rankings after UCF loses to Memphis and/or Texas loses to Oklahoma.
Stanford is a pretty compelling team to have in your bowl game, much more so than Utah. I wouldn't be so sure Oregon fans are going to travel to the Holiday Bowl like Stanford fans who have never been there would.
On one hand, most Stanford fans would readily travel to San Diego.
OTOH the Holiday Bowl decided to have the game on NYE. One day earlier would have made a big difference IMHO.
RE: Bowl Projections - oldalum - 11-28-2018
(11-26-2018, 02:38 PM)terry Wrote: Also, it was really, really cold on the day of the Foster Farms Bowl.And it was even colder at the game itself. A very strong wind made sitting in the seats impossible to do for long stretches of time; we were armed with snow clothes and blankets and we had to retreat out of the wind periodically to warm up. I won't do that again.
CardinalSagehen - CardinalSagehen - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 04:06 PM)CTcard Wrote:(11-28-2018, 02:19 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I don't know why all the pessimism with WSU. They are #13, and likely to move up into the Top 12 in the final rankings after UCF loses to Memphis and/or Texas loses to Oklahoma.
Two problems with your scenario.
1. Texas is already behind WSU at #14. Texas losing will not help WSU move up.
2. One group of 5 team is guaranteed to be in one of the NY 6 bowls, so even if UCF loses and no group of 5 team is above WSU, some group of 5 team still gets in over WSU.
WSU looks to be in a tight spot. They might move up over UW if Utah beats UW, putting Utah in the Rose Bowl and WSU in another NY6. The committee might reconsider their ranking of three loss Penn State, LSU, or Florida versus two loss WSU, but that seems unlikely.
Totally agree with you, CT. Another way to state it is that there are 12 spots in the CFP/NY6, Wazzu is #13, and there's no potential for them to pass anyone unless the committee rethinks its assessment of inactive teams including LSU, Florida and Penn State (which it will not do). None of the active teams ahead of Wazzu would fall below them with a loss (Oklahoma, Clemson, OSU, Georgia, Alabama), except UW and UCF, neither of which helps them.
In addition, Wazzu's non-conference schedule was crap - Wyoming, San Jose St. and Eastern Washington (FCS). And Pac-12 perception is justifiably down.
RE: Bowl Projections - chrisk - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 04:19 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:(11-28-2018, 02:19 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(11-28-2018, 12:28 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Another factor to consider - timing.
Las Vegas Bowl is December 15. Only 2 weeks after the final game of the season. At the end of Finals Week.
Redbox Bowl and Sun Bowl are December 31. The team would have to practice through Xmas, but at least the players would get some time to rest and heal and recharge their batteries before playing one more game.
I don't know why all the pessimism with WSU. They are #13, and likely to move up into the Top 12 in the final rankings after UCF loses to Memphis and/or Texas loses to Oklahoma.
Stanford is a pretty compelling team to have in your bowl game, much more so than Utah. I wouldn't be so sure Oregon fans are going to travel to the Holiday Bowl like Stanford fans who have never been there would.
On one hand, most Stanford fans would readily to travel to San Diego.
OTOH the Holiday Bowl decided to have the game on NYE. One day earlier would have made a big difference IMHO.
The schedule is different this year because Christmas is on a Tuesday and the semi-final games are on the 29th. That pushes several bowl games to the 31st that would not otherwise be there. People complained when the semi-finals were on the 31st; now they have switched to the 29th, people whose teams are shifted to the 31st complain.
RE: Bowl Projections - terry - 11-28-2018
(11-28-2018, 04:50 PM)oldalum Wrote:(11-26-2018, 02:38 PM)terry Wrote: Also, it was really, really cold on the day of the Foster Farms Bowl.And it was even colder at the game itself. A very strong wind made sitting in the seats impossible to do for long stretches of time; we were armed with snow clothes and blankets and we had to retreat out of the wind periodically to warm up. I won't do that again.
Yep. It was like going to a game in Green Bay or Buffalo.