Outside Topic Baseball HOF ballot - Printable Version
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RE: Langdude - Mick - 01-22-2020
(01-22-2020, 10:58 AM)Langdude Wrote: I’m disappointed Walker made the Hall. He was very good, that’s all. Not very good away from Coors. He should be in a Rockies wing, perhaps. And he knew he had limitations; I remember how he would take days off when team was facing Big Unit. Tony Gwynn, also a lefty, used to love the challenge of facing the best.
-m.
He was a Coors creation, no doubt. His OPS would be fourth all-time just based on Coors productivity. Away from Coors, he's about #120 at .865. So think Josh Hamilton, Jose Canseco, Danny Tartabull, John Olerud, Norm Cash, David Wright. Not Hall of Famers.
RE: Baseball HOF ballot - BostonCard - 01-22-2020
Any player on Baseball's ineligible list shall not be an eligible candidate.
So Rose would have to be taken off the list or the rules for inclusion in the hall would have to be changed.
BC
RE: Baseball HOF ballot - CTcard - 01-22-2020
(01-22-2020, 10:51 AM)Mick Wrote: BTW, there are guys who were eligible and on the HoF ballot who were under indictment for killing people. Apparently, no problem there.
Well, apparently it kept them from actually getting in (at least by the way you worded this). That's approximately equal to the roids guys, at least so far.
RE: Langdude - DC 86 - 01-22-2020
(01-22-2020, 01:33 PM)Mick Wrote: He was a Coors creation, no doubt. His OPS would be fourth all-time just based on Coors productivity. Away from Coors, he's about #120 at .865. So think Josh Hamilton, Jose Canseco, Danny Tartabull, John Olerud, Norm Cash, David Wright. Not Hall of Famers.
Some other players whose overall OPS was slightly lower than Walker's road OPS (between .840 and .865): Cap Anson, Carl Yastrzemski, Reggie Jackson, Tony Gwynn, Eddie Collins, Al Kaline, George Brett, Honus Wagner and Wade Boggs.
So cherry picking works both ways.
More relevant is that OPS+ normalizes for park effects and league-wide run environments, and Larry Walker's OPS+ (141) ranks 43rd in MLB history among players with over 7,000 plate appearances. His OPS+ (which effectively strips out his Coors advantage) is higher than any post-WW II Hall of Fame right fielder except for Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson.
No doubt that Walker's home/road splits were extreme, but virtually every player puts up bigger numbers at home than on the road. In fact, since 1908 there have been 415 players with more than 3,500 road plate appearances. Walker's .865 OPS ranks 55th, ahead of hitters including Ken Griffey Jr., Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Will Clark, Sammy Sosa and Robinson Cano. Ken Griffey Jr.''s road slash stats are 278/370/495 (his 860 OPS is five points lower than Walker's). So you could group Kid Griffey with Tartabull et al if you wish.
Finally, Walker was an outstanding fielder and outstanding baserunner, one of the only players in MLB history who ranks in the top 100 in batting WAR, fielding WAR and base running WAR. He was far more than a one dimensional hitter, rather a genuine five tool player. Looking exclusively at his hitting (even though it was outstanding) is unfair given the other facets of his game, which were similarly strong.
The only fair issue with regard to his HoF candidacy is related to his longevity. He only played 1,988 games in his career. But his ability and performance is unquestionable and far from a Coors field illusion.
lex24 - lex24 - 01-23-2020
(01-22-2020, 11:02 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-22-2020, 01:33 PM)Mick Wrote: He was a Coors creation, no doubt. His OPS would be fourth all-time just based on Coors productivity. Away from Coors, he's about #120 at .865. So think Josh Hamilton, Jose Canseco, Danny Tartabull, John Olerud, Norm Cash, David Wright. Not Hall of Famers.
Some other players whose overall OPS was slightly lower than Walker's road OPS (between .840 and .865): Cap Anson, Carl Yastrzemski, Reggie Jackson, Tony Gwynn, Eddie Collins, Al Kaline, George Brett, Honus Wagner and Wade Boggs.
So cherry picking works both ways.
More relevant is that OPS+ normalizes for park effects and league-wide run environments, and Larry Walker's OPS+ (141) ranks 43rd in MLB history among players with over 7,000 plate appearances. His OPS+ (which effectively strips out his Coors advantage) is higher than any post-WW II Hall of Fame right fielder except for Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson.
No doubt that Walker's home/road splits were extreme, but virtually every player puts up bigger numbers at home than on the road. In fact, since 1908 there have been 415 players with more than 3,500 road plate appearances. Walker's .865 OPS ranks 55th, ahead of hitters including Ken Griffey Jr., Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Will Clark, Sammy Sosa and Robinson Cano. Ken Griffey Jr.''s road slash stats are 278/370/495 (his 860 OPS is five points lower than Walker's). So you could group Kid Griffey with Tartabull et al if you wish.
Finally, Walker was an outstanding fielder and outstanding baserunner, one of the only players in MLB history who ranks in the top 100 in batting WAR, fielding WAR and base running WAR. He was far more than a one dimensional hitter, rather a genuine five tool player. Looking exclusively at his hitting (even though it was outstanding) is unfair given the other facets of his game, which were similarly strong.
The only fair issue with regard to his HoF candidacy is related to his longevity. He only played 1,988 games in his career. But his ability and performance is unquestionable and far from a Coors field illusion.
Mathematicians rule the roost. Let me ask you a simple question- did you ever consider Walker “elite”. Very good, yes. Elite, no.
Question two - who would you rather see strolling to the plate with the bases loaded two outs in the ninth and your team up a run - Walker or Gary Sheffield? (And sorry, no way I’m going to consider a Walker in the same realm as Griffey Jr.)
Moving forward if the whole issue is WAR, OPS, OPS+ and a bunch of other mathematical equations, who needs people to decide? Set up the parameters and let the computer do your work.
You know who should be in the HOF, but isn’t (and may not make it)? Omar Vizquel. Why? Because he was one of the most brilliant defensive players that has ever played the game. A true artist. But I guess his WAR isn’t high enough.
I’ll give you another. Buster Posey. And that is if he retired now. Why? ROY. MVP. Best catcher of his generation. Face of a franchise for a team that won 3 WS. First NL catcher to win Batting Title since Ernie Lombardi. Best hitter and middle of order guy as a catcher on a three WS winner. Multi time Silver Slugger winner. Gold Glover. Career ave over .300. Yeah, his offensive numbers suffered after he was hurt and worn down. But he did plenty to earn his place. I suspect the mathematicians will disagree.
There is still, hopefully, a place for the eyes in baseball. But it’s bevoming less and less the case. Too bad.
RE: lex24 - cardcrimson - 01-23-2020
Didn't even remember that Larry Walker played for the Rockies. Barely thought of him as a player at all, so was surprised that he was elected. Actually thought he may have been on the old timers ballot, if there is one.
Posey should be a lock. Lex, you missed his pitch calling skills as well.
(01-23-2020, 08:21 AM)lex24 Wrote:(01-22-2020, 11:02 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-22-2020, 01:33 PM)Mick Wrote: He was a Coors creation, no doubt. His OPS would be fourth all-time just based on Coors productivity. Away from Coors, he's about #120 at .865. So think Josh Hamilton, Jose Canseco, Danny Tartabull, John Olerud, Norm Cash, David Wright. Not Hall of Famers.
Some other players whose overall OPS was slightly lower than Walker's road OPS (between .840 and .865): Cap Anson, Carl Yastrzemski, Reggie Jackson, Tony Gwynn, Eddie Collins, Al Kaline, George Brett, Honus Wagner and Wade Boggs.
So cherry picking works both ways.
More relevant is that OPS+ normalizes for park effects and league-wide run environments, and Larry Walker's OPS+ (141) ranks 43rd in MLB history among players with over 7,000 plate appearances. His OPS+ (which effectively strips out his Coors advantage) is higher than any post-WW II Hall of Fame right fielder except for Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson.
No doubt that Walker's home/road splits were extreme, but virtually every player puts up bigger numbers at home than on the road. In fact, since 1908 there have been 415 players with more than 3,500 road plate appearances. Walker's .865 OPS ranks 55th, ahead of hitters including Ken Griffey Jr., Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Will Clark, Sammy Sosa and Robinson Cano. Ken Griffey Jr.''s road slash stats are 278/370/495 (his 860 OPS is five points lower than Walker's). So you could group Kid Griffey with Tartabull et al if you wish.
Finally, Walker was an outstanding fielder and outstanding baserunner, one of the only players in MLB history who ranks in the top 100 in batting WAR, fielding WAR and base running WAR. He was far more than a one dimensional hitter, rather a genuine five tool player. Looking exclusively at his hitting (even though it was outstanding) is unfair given the other facets of his game, which were similarly strong.
The only fair issue with regard to his HoF candidacy is related to his longevity. He only played 1,988 games in his career. But his ability and performance is unquestionable and far from a Coors field illusion.
Mathematicians rule the roost. Let me ask you a simple question- did you ever consider Walker “elite”. Very good, yes. Elite, no.
Question two - who would you rather see strolling to the plate with the bases loaded two outs in the ninth and your team up a run - Walker or Gary Sheffield? (And sorry, no way I’m going to consider a Walker in the same realm as Griffey Jr.)
Moving forward if the whole issue is WAR, OPS, OPS+ and a bunch of other mathematical equations, who needs people to decide? Set up the parameters and let the computer do your work.
You know who should be in the HOF, but isn’t (and may not make it)? Omar Vizquel. Why? Because he was one of the most brilliant defensive players that has ever played the game. A true artist. But I guess his WAR isn’t high enough.
I’ll give you another. Buster Posey. And that is if he retired now. Why? ROY. MVP. Best catcher of his generation. Face of a franchise for a team that won 3 WS. First NL catcher to win Batting Title since Ernie Lombardi. Best hitter and middle of order guy as a catcher on a three WS winner. Multi time Silver Slugger winner. Gold Glover. Career ave over .300. Yeah, his offensive numbers suffered after he was hurt and worn down. But he did plenty to earn his place. I suspect the mathematicians will disagree.
There is still, hopefully, a place for the eyes in baseball. But it’s bevoming less and less the case. Too bad.
RE: Baseball HOF ballot - BostonCard - 01-23-2020
From the link I posted earlier, a prediction that Vizquel will get in (eventually):
Quote:
- What about Omar Vizquel? The man who played the most games at shortstop and won 11 Gold Gloves could be the anti-PED vote. He debuted at 37% in 2018, received 42.8% last year and is currently polling at 48%. He's the rare player who actually fares just as well on the private ballots. In other words, the older voters like him, while the younger breed of pro-analytics writers are not as much in favor due to a 45.6 career WAR that is low for a modern Hall of Famer. Although Vizquel's election either via the BBWAA or veterans committee is inevitable, I think he has to wait a bit longer.
And I do think it is fine that not all deserving players make it in on the first ballot. I do hope that Vizquel makes it in eventually, but I’m ok with it not being this year or next.
BC
RE: Baseball HOF ballot - Langdude - 01-23-2020
I think Vizquel will eventually make it, either on the writers' ballots or through the vets' committee.
-m.
RE: Baseball HOF ballot - Phogge - 01-23-2020
Television news was ruined by the original analytics man Casey Davidson of the CBS pencil pushers in 1974. Farhan and his nerd brethren are ruining baseball.
Bunting, hit and run, pitchouts and managers actually running games are passé. Now a game of walks, strikeouts, home runs and managers rubbing coconut oil on their Johnsons. Their is no strategy quessing watching at home or in the park. Just sit back and watch your heroes swing hard and fan. Boring.
RE: lex24 - teejers1 - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 08:40 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Posey should be a lock. Lex, you missed his pitch calling skills as well.
. . .
I’ll give you another. Buster Posey. And that is if he retired now. Why? ROY. MVP. Best catcher of his generation. Face of a franchise for a team that won 3 WS. First NL catcher to win Batting Title since Ernie Lombardi. Best hitter and middle of order guy as a catcher on a three WS winner. Multi time Silver Slugger winner. Gold Glover. Career ave over .300. Yeah, his offensive numbers suffered after he was hurt and worn down. But he did plenty to earn his place. I suspect the mathematicians will disagree.
Lifelong Giants fan, and I don't think Posey is a Hall of Famer. None of the Giants from that 3-WS-rings run is, with possible exception of Bumgarner (but I fear his numbers will take a beating in AZ, diminishing his chances). [Timmy would have been the obvious choice, but his longevity coefficient is disqualifying]. Posey has been diminishing for years and was never a great or feared hitter. Good with pitchers? Sure. Good defensively? Yes. But lots of catchers are great defensively.
P.S. Agree totally on scenario of "who would you rather have batting in clutch situation, Sheff or Walker." Walker not Hall-worthy, either.
RE: lex24 - Mick - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 08:21 AM)lex24 Wrote: Question two - who would you rather see strolling to the plate with the bases loaded two outs in the ninth and your team up a run - Walker or Gary Sheffield? (And sorry, no way I’m going to consider a Walker in the same realm as Griffey Jr.)
With two outs and runners in scoring position, here are the splits for all three batters, plus Griffey Sr., Buster and Willie Mays, just for fun:
Gary Sheffield .263/.424/.497/.921
Larry Walker .272/.426/.439/.865
Ken Griffey Jr. .261/.417.498/.917
Ken Griffey Sr. .243/.343/.352/.706
Buster Posey .268/.399/.384/.783
Willie Mays .298/.428/.552/.979
Mays' numbers really pop off the page. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Mays had over his career: 997 at bats, 294 hits and 229 walks with just 154 strikeouts. 62 home runs, 50 doubles, 10 triples. 449 RBI, and not incidentally, scored 518 runs. Also stole 53 bases and was caught 8 times. BTW, 100 of those 229 walks -- with runners in scoring position -- were intentional.
There's your hall of famer, right there.
(01-23-2020, 03:28 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(01-23-2020, 08:40 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Posey should be a lock. Lex, you missed his pitch calling skills as well.
. . .
I’ll give you another. Buster Posey. And that is if he retired now. Why? ROY. MVP. Best catcher of his generation. Face of a franchise for a team that won 3 WS. First NL catcher to win Batting Title since Ernie Lombardi. Best hitter and middle of order guy as a catcher on a three WS winner. Multi time Silver Slugger winner. Gold Glover. Career ave over .300. Yeah, his offensive numbers suffered after he was hurt and worn down. But he did plenty to earn his place. I suspect the mathematicians will disagree.
Lifelong Giants fan, and I don't think Posey is a Hall of Famer. None of the Giants from that 3-WS-rings run is, with possible exception of Bumgarner (but I fear his numbers will take a beating in AZ, diminishing his chances). [Timmy would have been the obvious choice, but his longevity coefficient is disqualifying]. Posey has been diminishing for years and was never a great or feared hitter. Good with pitchers? Sure. Good defensively? Yes. But lots of catchers are great defensively.
P.S. Agree totally on scenario of "who would you rather have batting in clutch situation, Sheff or Walker." Walker not Hall-worthy, either.
(01-22-2020, 11:02 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-22-2020, 01:33 PM)Mick Wrote: He was a Coors creation, no doubt. His OPS would be fourth all-time just based on Coors productivity. Away from Coors, he's about #120 at .865. So think Josh Hamilton, Jose Canseco, Danny Tartabull, John Olerud, Norm Cash, David Wright. Not Hall of Famers.
Some other players whose overall OPS was slightly lower than Walker's road OPS (between .840 and .865): Cap Anson, Carl Yastrzemski, Reggie Jackson, Tony Gwynn, Eddie Collins, Al Kaline, George Brett, Honus Wagner and Wade Boggs.
So cherry picking works both ways.
Yes, cherry picking works both ways. Except the players I selected weren't cherry picked. I picked them because they were recent power hitters, like Walker. Of the nine you cherry-picked, none had profiles similar to Walker.
Three (Wagner, Collins, and Anson) played during the dead ball era. Another (Jackson) was the strikeout king. Lots of power and homers, Mr. October, but literally the career leader in strikeouts, which held down his OPS. Yastrzemski's power fell off dramatically after age 31...his OPS surpassed .800 only four times in the last 14 years of his career. He led the league in 35 categories by age 30, after age 30 just two. His HoF years were his first decade. Boggs, similar story with less power. Hall of Fame credentials were in the first 40% of his career when he led the league 24 separate times, including five batting crowns, and six OBP seasons. After age 31, he led the league in intentional base on balls three times. George Brett, similar story. Gwynn was a low-power hitter who led the league eight times in batting average, why he's in the HoF. Of the players you suggest, Al Kaline was closest in profile to the players I suggested. He did his hitting in an era when there was very little hitting, so he deserved the HoF. He lead the league in batting, hits, doubles, OBP and OPS one time each.
My point is that if you remove Coors Field stats, Walker's statistics are very similar to Canseco, Olerud, Cash, Hamilton and Tartabull, at a minimum. They were power hitters from close to the same time period. Walker gets the HoF, the others don't. Maybe if they'd played in Coors Field, they would have made the HoF.
RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 03:52 PM)Mick Wrote: Yes, cherry picking works both ways. Except the players I selected weren't cherry picked. I picked them because they were recent power hitters, like Walker. Of the nine you cherry-picked, none had profiles similar to Walker.
Three (Wagner, Collins, and Anson) played during the dead ball era. Another (Jackson) was the strikeout king. Lots of power and homers, Mr. October, but literally the career leader in strikeouts, which held down his OPS. Yastrzemski's power fell off dramatically after age 31...his OPS surpassed .800 only four times in the last 14 years of his career. He led the league in 35 categories by age 30, after age 30 just two. His HoF years were his first decade. Boggs, similar story with less power. Hall of Fame credentials were in the first 40% of his career when he led the league 24 separate times, including five batting crowns, and six OBP seasons. After age 31, he led the league in intentional base on balls three times. George Brett, similar story. Gwynn was a low-power hitter who led the league eight times in batting average, why he's in the HoF. Of the players you suggest, Al Kaline was closest in profile to the players I suggested. He did his hitting in an era when there was very little hitting, so he deserved the HoF. He lead the league in batting, hits, doubles, OBP and OPS one time each.
My point is that if you remove Coors Field stats, Walker's statistics are very similar to Canseco, Olerud, Cash, Hamilton and Tartabull, at a minimum. They were power hitters from close to the same time period. Walker gets the HoF, the others don't. Maybe if they'd played in Coors Field, they would have made the HoF.
Olerud was not a power hitter (career high of 24) and Cash's career ended in 1974, 15 years before Walker's began, in addition to being a one dimensional first baseman, unlike Walker who was a multidimensional outfielder. As I hope you know, Walker was not merely a "slugger" (such as Tartabull), he was a seven time gold glove winner with one of the best throwing arms in baseball as well as a tremendous baserunner. He actually was similar in profile to Canseco and Hamilton, who were hall of fame talents who didn't care for their talent properly.
I guess I don't understand the excuses as to why Walker's non-Coors hitting statistics being better than Brett, Gwynn, Reggie, Griffey Jr. and Boggs are invalidated by being different types of players, or because they fell off in the second half of their careers. The good news is that modern general managers such as Farhan objectively analyze the game along the lines that I have instead of trying to craft narratives to fit their preconceptions.
RE: lex24 - Mick - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 04:58 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-23-2020, 03:52 PM)Mick Wrote: Yes, cherry picking works both ways. Except the players I selected weren't cherry picked. I picked them because they were recent power hitters, like Walker. Of the nine you cherry-picked, none had profiles similar to Walker.
Three (Wagner, Collins, and Anson) played during the dead ball era. Another (Jackson) was the strikeout king. Lots of power and homers, Mr. October, but literally the career leader in strikeouts, which held down his OPS. Yastrzemski's power fell off dramatically after age 31...his OPS surpassed .800 only four times in the last 14 years of his career. He led the league in 35 categories by age 30, after age 30 just two. His HoF years were his first decade. Boggs, similar story with less power. Hall of Fame credentials were in the first 40% of his career when he led the league 24 separate times, including five batting crowns, and six OBP seasons. After age 31, he led the league in intentional base on balls three times. George Brett, similar story. Gwynn was a low-power hitter who led the league eight times in batting average, why he's in the HoF. Of the players you suggest, Al Kaline was closest in profile to the players I suggested. He did his hitting in an era when there was very little hitting, so he deserved the HoF. He lead the league in batting, hits, doubles, OBP and OPS one time each.
My point is that if you remove Coors Field stats, Walker's statistics are very similar to Canseco, Olerud, Cash, Hamilton and Tartabull, at a minimum. They were power hitters from close to the same time period. Walker gets the HoF, the others don't. Maybe if they'd played in Coors Field, they would have made the HoF.
Olerud was not a power hitter (career high of 24) and Cash's career ended in 1974, 15 years before Walker's began, in addition to being a one dimensional first baseman, unlike Walker who was a multidimensional outfielder. As I hope you know, Walker was not merely a "slugger" (such as Tartabull), he was a seven time gold glove winner with one of the best throwing arms in baseball as well as a tremendous baserunner. He actually was similar in profile to Canseco and Hamilton, who were hall of fame talents who didn't care for their talent properly.
I guess I don't understand the excuses as to why Walker's non-Coors hitting statistics being better than Brett, Gwynn, Reggie, Griffey Jr. and Boggs are invalidated by being different types of players, or because they fell off in the second half of their careers. The good news is that modern general managers such as Farhan objectively analyze the game along the lines that I have instead of trying to craft narratives to fit their preconceptions.
Cash played in a era when hitting for power and average were quite rare. So thank you for making my point for me. He hit about the same number of home runs that Walker did when Walker spent half his career with a live ball in the hitter-friendliest park there is.
Olerud had three gold gloves and my entire point was that once Walker was away from Coors field, his power profile looks a lot more like Olerud's based on OPS. IN fact, they're almost identical (.863 to .865).
The OPS figures of Brett, Gwynn, Jackson, Griffey and Boggs are not valid comparisons because they're not similar kinds of hitters as to Walker. And Canseco's SB numbers were similar to Walker's. Canseco's OPS, again, was virtually identical to Walker's (.867 to .865). Hence the comparison
Hamilton, Walker and Cash had five all star appearances each. Canseco had six. My original point was that Walker benefited immensely from hitting at Coors Field. None of these other players had that advantage. So Walker's in the HoF, and the rest of them, with virtually identical OPS, are not. I wonder if they played at Coors, would they be in the HoF? Olerud hit .393 at Coors, with a 1.083 OPS. The others never hit at Coors.
RE: lex24 - cardcrimson - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 04:58 PM)DC 86 Wrote: The good news is that modern general managers such as Farhan objectively analyze the game along the lines that I have instead of trying to craft narratives to fit their preconceptions.
Wow. Just wow.
RE: lex24 - Mick - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 05:15 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(01-23-2020, 04:58 PM)DC 86 Wrote: The good news is that modern general managers such as Farhan objectively analyze the game along the lines that I have instead of trying to craft narratives to fit their preconceptions.
Wow. Just wow.
Here's the regular season record of Farhan's Oakland and Dodger teams since he's been in senior management:
2013 96-66
2014 88-74
2015 92 -70
2016 91-71
2017 104-58
2018 91-71
Must be a coincidence.
RE: lex24 - cardcrimson - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 05:34 PM)Mick Wrote:(01-23-2020, 05:15 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(01-23-2020, 04:58 PM)DC 86 Wrote: The good news is that modern general managers such as Farhan objectively analyze the game along the lines that I have instead of trying to craft narratives to fit their preconceptions.
Wow. Just wow.
Here's the regular season record of Farhan's Oakland and Dodger teams since he's been in senior management:
2013 96-66
2014 88-74
2015 92 -70
2016 91-71
2017 104-58
2018 91-71
Must be a coincidence.
My comment wasn't regarding Farhan, rather to the poster that likened himself and his analysis to Farhan and other "modern" general managers.
As for Farhan, I hope he has success with the Giants. That said, all those analyses haven't got the A's a championship, and all the analyses and all that cash haven't earned one for the Dodgers, either.
I heard an interesting interview with Kyle Shanahan this week. He was asked which stats he thought important to judge a quarterback. He responded that he didn't really look at stats, he'd rather judge by what he sees on the field. When pressed he said, well wins and probably 3rd down conversions. Interesting perspective, and somewhat refreshing.
lex24 - lex24 - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 03:52 PM)Mick Wrote:(01-23-2020, 08:21 AM)lex24 Wrote: Question two - who would you rather see strolling to the plate with the bases loaded two outs in the ninth and your team up a run - Walker or Gary Sheffield? (And sorry, no way I’m going to consider a Walker in the same realm as Griffey Jr.)
With two outs and runners in scoring position, here are the splits for all three batters, plus Griffey Sr., Buster and Willie Mays, just for fun:
Gary Sheffield .263/.424/.497/.921
Larry Walker .272/.426/.439/.865
Ken Griffey Jr. .261/.417.498/.917
Ken Griffey Sr. .243/.343/.352/.706
Buster Posey .268/.399/.384/.783
Willie Mays .298/.428/.552/.979
Mays' numbers really pop off the page. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Mays had over his career: 997 at bats, 294 hits and 229 walks with just 154 strikeouts. 62 home runs, 50 doubles, 10 triples. 449 RBI, and not incidentally, scored 518 runs. Also stole 53 bases and was caught 8 times. BTW, 100 of those 229 walks -- with runners in scoring position -- were intentional.
There's your hall of famer, right there.
(01-23-2020, 03:28 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(01-23-2020, 08:40 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Posey should be a lock. Lex, you missed his pitch calling skills as well.
. . .
I’ll give you another. Buster Posey. And that is if he retired now. Why? ROY. MVP. Best catcher of his generation. Face of a franchise for a team that won 3 WS. First NL catcher to win Batting Title since Ernie Lombardi. Best hitter and middle of order guy as a catcher on a three WS winner. Multi time Silver Slugger winner. Gold Glover. Career ave over .300. Yeah, his offensive numbers suffered after he was hurt and worn down. But he did plenty to earn his place. I suspect the mathematicians will disagree.
Lifelong Giants fan, and I don't think Posey is a Hall of Famer. None of the Giants from that 3-WS-rings run is, with possible exception of Bumgarner (but I fear his numbers will take a beating in AZ, diminishing his chances). [Timmy would have been the obvious choice, but his longevity coefficient is disqualifying]. Posey has been diminishing for years and was never a great or feared hitter. Good with pitchers? Sure. Good defensively? Yes. But lots of catchers are great defensively.
P.S. Agree totally on scenario of "who would you rather have batting in clutch situation, Sheff or Walker." Walker not Hall-worthy, either.
(01-22-2020, 11:02 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(01-22-2020, 01:33 PM)Mick Wrote: He was a Coors creation, no doubt. His OPS would be fourth all-time just based on Coors productivity. Away from Coors, he's about #120 at .865. So think Josh Hamilton, Jose Canseco, Danny Tartabull, John Olerud, Norm Cash, David Wright. Not Hall of Famers.
Some other players whose overall OPS was slightly lower than Walker's road OPS (between .840 and .865): Cap Anson, Carl Yastrzemski, Reggie Jackson, Tony Gwynn, Eddie Collins, Al Kaline, George Brett, Honus Wagner and Wade Boggs.
So cherry picking works both ways.
Yes, cherry picking works both ways. Except the players I selected weren't cherry picked. I picked them because they were recent power hitters, like Walker. Of the nine you cherry-picked, none had profiles similar to Walker.
Three (Wagner, Collins, and Anson) played during the dead ball era. Another (Jackson) was the strikeout king. Lots of power and homers, Mr. October, but literally the career leader in strikeouts, which held down his OPS. Yastrzemski's power fell off dramatically after age 31...his OPS surpassed .800 only four times in the last 14 years of his career. He led the league in 35 categories by age 30, after age 30 just two. His HoF years were his first decade. Boggs, similar story with less power. Hall of Fame credentials were in the first 40% of his career when he led the league 24 separate times, including five batting crowns, and six OBP seasons. After age 31, he led the league in intentional base on balls three times. George Brett, similar story. Gwynn was a low-power hitter who led the league eight times in batting average, why he's in the HoF. Of the players you suggest, Al Kaline was closest in profile to the players I suggested. He did his hitting in an era when there was very little hitting, so he deserved the HoF. He lead the league in batting, hits, doubles, OBP and OPS one time each.
My point is that if you remove Coors Field stats, Walker's statistics are very similar to Canseco, Olerud, Cash, Hamilton and Tartabull, at a minimum. They were power hitters from close to the same time period. Walker gets the HoF, the others don't. Maybe if they'd played in Coors Field, they would have made the HoF.
Posey was both a great and a feared hitter. As evidenced by his leading the league (as a catcher, first in NL since Ernie Lombardi) in hitting and winning an MVP award in ‘12. He was never a great HR hitter. Power alley guy with the ability to go the other way. He was also generally the one guy in that lineup that opposing managers didn’t want to let beat them. Catching every inning of every playoff game, coupled with a medical staff that let him play with a hip injury far too long robbed him of his lower body. He still hit for a relatively high average in 18 with nothing but his friggin hands. He couldn’t turn on the ball. If you were watching then, you saw it. They should have shut him down around June 1 and let him get the very serious hip surgery he had around November. Might have given him a shot to actually be ready for ‘19. The guy is one tough dude. Stayed behind the plate when he could have moved to first base (and put up much better numbers. The injury in 2011 was damn near career ending. At one time he was hitting around.360 when he played first. Part of that was he usually did that against lefties. And he killed lefties at one time. I realize it’s now fashionable to denigrate him. Cause it’s always what have you done for me lately. But next to Willie Mays and Barry Bonds he’s the most important Giant in SF baseball history. He has 3 rings to prove it.
I’m betting on him (literally) to rebound next year.
Numbers from ‘10-17.
‘10. 305/357/505/862
‘11. Hurt
‘12. .336/.408/549/957
‘13. 294/371/450/821
14. 311/364/490/854
15. 318/379/470/849
16. 288/362/434/796
17. 320/400/462/861
Pretty flipping good numbers for a catcher. One might even say great. Right?
lex24 - lex24 - 01-23-2020
From the Athletic: “In 1963, in a move that almost nobody noticed, the baseball rules committee redefined the strike zone... so that it went “from the batter’s knees to the top of his shoulders.” This rule unintentionally both raised the strike zone (the rule had been to the armpit) and lowered the strike zone (the rule had been the top of the knee and now it was just the knee).
The rules committee had no idea that they had just ushered in a second dead-ball era.”
Add higher mounds as well. Through ‘68 when it became ridiculous and they lowered the mound to give hitters a chance. Not sure when they went back to the armpit. But I’d love to see the “launch angle gurus” teach how to hit a fastball at the armpit much less the shoulder. Hell today the strike zone is from the belt buckle to just below the knee with a little bit of extra width. Just drop the bat head and let her fly.
RE: lex24 - teejers1 - 01-24-2020
(01-23-2020, 10:57 PM)lex24 Wrote: Posey was both a great and a feared hitter. As evidenced by his leading the league (as a catcher, first in NL since Ernie Lombardi) in hitting and winning an MVP award in ‘12. He was never a great HR hitter. Power alley guy with the ability to go the other way. He was also generally the one guy in that lineup that opposing managers didn’t want to let beat them. Catching every inning of every playoff game, coupled with a medical staff that let him play with a hip injury far too long robbed him of his lower body. He still hit for a relatively high average in 18 with nothing but his friggin hands. He couldn’t turn on the ball. If you were watching then, you saw it. They should have shut him down around June 1 and let him get the very serious hip surgery he had around November. Might have given him a shot to actually be ready for ‘19. The guy is one tough dude. Stayed behind the plate when he could have moved to first base (and put up much better numbers. The injury in 2011 was damn near career ending. At one time he was hitting around.360 when he played first. Part of that was he usually did that against lefties. And he killed lefties at one time. I realize it’s now fashionable to denigrate him. Cause it’s always what have you done for me lately. But next to Willie Mays and Barry Bonds he’s the most important Giant in SF baseball history. He has 3 rings to prove it.
I’m betting on him (literally) to rebound next year.
Numbers from ‘10-17.
‘10. 305/357/505/862
‘11. Hurt
‘12. .336/.408/549/957
‘13. 294/371/450/821
14. 311/364/490/854
15. 318/379/470/849
16. 288/362/434/796
17. 320/400/462/861
Pretty flipping good numbers for a catcher. One might even say great. Right?
Buster should be renamed "slappy" as he is now just a slap singles hitter. Saying Buster has no power is being generous.
The only difference between Buster and your more typical slap-singles hitter is that the prototype usually has some speed. How many DPs has Buster hit into in his career? Those might be HoF numbers . . .
Don't take the above as too critical. Buster has had a good career and has been a great Giant (probably Top 25 in my lifetime). But he's just not a Hall of Famer . . . no shame in that.
And I also agree that the injury he suffered was brutal and a gratuitous shot by a 'roided out player just trying to stick in the Bigs (okay, I have no clue whether that's true, but it's my story and I'm sticking with it!). Without that injury, I have no doubt Buster's numbers would look a lot better, including his power numbers.
RE: lex24 - Mick - 01-24-2020
(01-23-2020, 06:02 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: I heard an interesting interview with Kyle Shanahan this week. He was asked which stats he thought important to judge a quarterback. He responded that he didn't really look at stats, he'd rather judge by what he sees on the field. When pressed he said, well wins and probably 3rd down conversions. Interesting perspective, and somewhat refreshing.
Sounds good to me. There was a poster here on the boards -- can't recall whom -- who held that "wins" was not a useful metric for pitchers.
Oh.