Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - Printable Version
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RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - BostonCard - 01-02-2020
This table shows who has gotten into the playoffs and who has not for each year in its existence:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff#Selections_by_year
A few things we have seen:
* Every undefeated P5 (plus Notre Dame) team has gotten into the playoffs. Such teams are 9 for 9.
* Conference champions that are 12-1 are 12 for 13. The only exception to date was Ohio State, and that was in a year where three teams (Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame) were undefeated, so tOSU was vying with 12-1 Oklahoma for the last spot.
* Conference champions that are 11-1 are one for three; with all P5 conferences having a conference championship, this situation shouldn't happen again. The two that didn't make it were Baylor and TCU in 2014/15, a year where FSU was 13-0, and three P5 conference champion teams were 12-1.
* Non-conference champion teams with one loss are two for five (tOSU in 2016/17 and Alabama in 2017/18 both got in). Interestingly both are non-conference champion teams who didn't make their conference championship (these teams are two for three) rather than teams who lost in their conference championship (Iowa in 2015/16 and Wisconsin in 2017/18). In both cases, these 11-1 teams got in over two two-loss conference champions (Penn State and Oklahoma in 2016/17, Ohio State and USC in 2017/18).
* No team with two losses has ever made the playoffs. Conference champions with two losses who have missed out are oh-for-six, including Stanford in 2015/16.
Things you have not yet seen:
A 1-loss conference champion being left out in favor of a team that did not win its conference.
A 2-loss team being included.
A G5 team being included
Based on the above, you would expect the following priorities:
1. Undefeated P5 (plus Notre Dame) teams
2. 1-loss conference champions (left out only if all conference champions have 1 or 0 losses)
3. 1-loss teams that did not in their conferences (seems more likely to get in if you don't make a conference championship than if you lose in it); has only happened in years where there are three or fewer 1-loss conference champions
4. 2-loss conference champions (has never happened)
BC
RE: lex24 - Farm93 - 01-02-2020
(01-02-2020, 02:11 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Some day this may become a testable hypothesis, though for the reasons you mention, a 2-loss SEC champ (with no other SEC teams having fewer losses) may be rare. I think the specific situation you brought up (Auburn getting in this year after losing to Oregon and another SEC team), though, would be hard to justify given a head-to-head loss versus another team looking to get in.I have no doubt, at all, that Oregon would not get in over a 2 loss SEC winner, especially since the committee head could not lobby or vote for Oregon this year. It probably would be close because Oregon won head-to-head in this scenario. I would bet almost everything I have that a two loss SEC champ, even with a loss to a different Pac-12 team, would get in before a two loss Pac-12 champ.
BC
In many seasons the SEC East team has had 1 or 2 losses, and were big underdogs to Alabama for the SEC CG. And in most seasons, it was a given Alabama was a lock even with a loss in the SEC CG. Therefore SEC champ from the SEC East would then take a slot from Pac-12/Big12 because they would then have an epic and recent quality win against the most powerful dynasty/best coach/best talent Alabama team.
The Pac-12 #1, the Big-12 #1, the SEC #2 (CG loser or division runner-up) and Notre Dame are essentially battling for that 4th slot every year. And since UW's season the Pac-12 has not secured that #4 spot. :(
RE: lex24 - terry - 01-02-2020
Harbaugh is now 0-5 against Ohio State and 1-4 in bowl games. I wonder whether the fans are getting a little restless.
RE: lex24 - CTcard - 01-02-2020
(01-02-2020, 02:11 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(01-02-2020, 01:45 PM)DC 86 Wrote: One year ago (2018-2019) Ohio State was left out of the playoff despite being 12-1 and Big Ten conference champion. In fact their final committee ranking was 6th (behind 11-2 SEC runner up Georgia which was ranked 5th).
Right! Thanks for the correction; I feel silly. They were left out in favor of a 12-0 Notre Dame team.
(01-02-2020, 01:03 PM)Farm93 Wrote: LSU won the SEC West, but imagine they lost a few times. If Auburn won the SEC by going 11-2 with a loss to Oregon and a loss to some SEC school do you really think they would not be in the CFP?
Some day this may become a testable hypothesis,
The "teams get into the playoff because of conference reputation" is certainly overplayed, and probably bunk overall, despite what one may imagine happening in various counter-factual situations.
It's pretty clear that for actually being in the playoff, sorting category 1 is being in a Power 5 conference (or und) and category 2 is number of losses.
Following that is less clear, but strength of schedule starts appearing.
It appears the committee is more willing to give an extra boost to strength of schedule, and actually allow it to overcome number of losses in some cases, for the lower rankings that are not making the playoff.
OSU last year was only a partial exception to the number of losses rule, and rather adds to the case that generic conference reputation doesn't matter much. The Big Ten was/is more highly regarded than the Big 12. They lost out to Oklahoma [rather than undefeated und] largely due to a really bad loss to Purdue and some close wins over poor teams.
Had OSU and Georgia been at 4/5 instead of 5/6 that might have ended up being the first case of a two-loss Power 5 team bumping a one-loss Power 5 team out of the playoff, but since that didn't actually happen it's only a partial exception.
Even 2017, where they let in two SEC conference teams neither of which won the SEC title, wasn't outside of this general ranking rubric. By the fewest losses rule the only other contender was Wisconsin which had a notably soft schedule that year, had also lost their conference championship game, and was only tied in losses with the two SEC teams.
The Pac 12 has never lost a bid to the playoffs because of any kind of lack of reputation, rather it keeps producing champions with multiple losses.
RE: lex24 - BostonCard - 01-02-2020
(01-02-2020, 04:16 PM)CTcard Wrote: Even 2017, where they let in two SEC conference teams neither of which won the SEC title, wasn't outside of this general ranking rubric. By the fewest losses rule the only other contender was Wisconsin which had a notably soft schedule that year, had also lost their conference championship game, and was only tied in losses with the two SEC teams.
Slight correction. I think in 2017, Georgia was the SEC champion at 13-1, having won a rematch with Auburn in the SEC title game. 11-1 Alabama was able to get into the CFP without winning the SEC (or even the SEC West, having also lost head-to-head against Auburn), but it was competing against two 2-loss P5 champions (11-2 Ohio State and 11-2 USC), and a 1-loss non-P5 conference champion (12-1 Wisconsin), as well as a 12-0 G5 team (UCF). So your rule still applies.
BC
RE: lex24 - Farm93 - 01-02-2020
For now the sample size is small so it is not clear what exactly would happen in all scenarios.
However there have been years, like this one, where the PAC-12 champ with 2 losses finished behind non-conference champs from other conferences.
There has also not been a case where the PAC-12 champ, even with the same number of loses, has finished above SEC #1.
That implies the Pac-12 is the last of the Power 5 in this process. Though it is hard to tell because the PAC-12 suffers from greater parity in conference. Ironic that parity is a negative but it is in this process.
The CFP trend hurts USC most with their need for glory seeking recruiting targets, but it is not helping any PAC 12.
Sure hope the CFP expands to 6 with each conference winner getting included before the PAC-12 is seen as the newest member of the Group of 6.
I don’t live in The South but I suspect many there already see the PAC-12 as more like the AAC than the SEC.
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - BostonCard - 01-02-2020
I wouldn't read too much into CFP rankings outside of the top 4.
I agree that most years, a one-loss Pac-12 champion will probably be ranked behind a one-loss SEC champion. It's not clear that would apply to any other conference, though. Although the ACC has always gotten a team in, it has been very top heavy, with either Florida State or Clemson head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, and never finishing with fewer than one loss. Both the Big-12 and Big Ten have had a one-loss conference champion left out (in the case of the Big-12, both Baylor and TCU were left out in 2014/15 behind one loss conference champions from the SEC, Pac-12, and Big Ten, though at the time the Big-12 did not have a conference championship; Ohio State was left out of the 2018/19 conference championship, but that year there were three undefeated teams, and it was passed over by the Big-12 conference champion, Oklahoma). This year would have been an interesting test case had Oregon not lost to ASU; it would have been a tough call between a one-loss Oklahoma and a one-loss Oregon.
The years where a Pac-12 champ fell behind a non-conference champion:
2015/16: 11-2 Stanford was behind 12-1 Iowa; this was later settled on the field
2017/18: 11-2 USC was behind 11-1 Alabama, 12-1 Wisconsin, and 10-3 Auburn, which is the one example of a Pac-12 team with more losses who won their conference being behind a team with fewer losses who didn't win their conference
2018/19: 10-3 Washington (9th in the CFP) was behind a bunch of teams, none with fewer than 2 losses. Of the teams with two losses, Georgia was 11-2 and Michigan was 10-2.
2019/20: 11-2 Oregon was behind 11-2 Georgia
In other conferences:
2016/17: 11-2 Penn State was behind 11-1 Ohio State; 10-2 Oklahoma was behind tOSU and 10-2 Michigan
2017/18: 11-2 Ohio State was behind 11-1 Alabama (as SC was)
2018/19: 12-1 Ohio State was behind 11-2 Georgia (the other example of a conference champion with 1 loss being behind a team with more losses who didn't win their championship)
BC
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - Mick - 01-02-2020
(01-02-2020, 12:49 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(01-02-2020, 11:56 AM)Mick Wrote: SEC is the only conference that is demonstrably better than the Pac-12. They finished 6-2, 75% bowl win rate with two more wins than any other conference.
The Mountain West conference won four bowls against two losses for a 67% win rate. Had a big loss to Washington, none of their other teams were ranked. Some very minor bowls. Notre Dame won, Liberty won for a 67% win rate for the independents. Yeehah.
Big 10, with its slew of six ranked teams was 4-4 and 1-2 against the Pac 12.
ACC was 4-5. Yes, they have Clemson. their other two ranked teams were 1-1.
The rest of the conferences were demonstrably less than the Pac-12. We didn't do all that badly.
A combination of small numbers and the importance of match-ups (for example, because the Pac-12 didn't have a CFP team or two NY6 teams, it was slotted into the normal order of bowls, and wound up in match-ups against teams that were slotted one bowl up from where they would have been), makes this cursory examination rather uninformative.
BC
I was trying to spin as fast and hard as I could. Thank you for taking the tim
RE: lex24 - CTcard - 01-03-2020
(01-02-2020, 04:26 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Slight correction. I think in 2017, Georgia was the SEC champion at 13-1, having won a rematch with Auburn in the SEC title game. 11-1 Alabama was able to get into the CFP without winning the SEC (or even the SEC West, having also lost head-to-head against Auburn), but it was competing against two 2-loss P5 champions (11-2 Ohio State and 11-2 USC), and a 1-loss non-P5 conference champion (12-1 Wisconsin), as well as a 12-0 G5 team (UCF). So your rule still applies.
Thanks for the correction. Was writing too fast and had somehow in my head put the Auburn win over Bama into the SEC championship game.
But, you're also correct that doesn't change the rule.
(01-02-2020, 06:18 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The years where a Pac-12 champ fell behind a non-conference champion:
2015/16: 11-2 Stanford was behind 12-1 Iowa; this was later settled on the field
2017/18: 11-2 USC was behind 11-1 Alabama, 12-1 Wisconsin, and 10-3 Auburn, which is the one example of a Pac-12 team with more fewer losses who won their conference being behind a team with fewer more losses who didn't win their conference
2018/19: 10-3 Washington (9th in the CFP) was behind a bunch of teams, none with fewer more than 2 losses. Of the teams with two losses, Georgia was 11-2 and Michigan was 10-2.
2019/20: 11-2 Oregon was behind 11-2 Georgia
Just fixin a couple of more/less mix ups.
But this does point out that the committee doesn't value conference championships particularly strongly. If there were to be an expanded playoff that would mandate conference champions make the field, that might have a notable change in the makeup far beyond the extra four teams - from time to time a notably weaker team will slip in via a conference championship game upset.
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - BostonCard - 01-03-2020
Likewise, thanks for your corrections...
As I wrote to farm, I don't think the rankings outside of the top 4 are very informative, and while I agree that the committee values (lack of) losses more highly than conference championships, I would be very surprised if the committee ever picked a non-conference champion with more losses above a conference champion with fewer losses, and moderately surprised if the committee picked a non-conference champion over a conference champion with the same number of losses, though I am sure some day an exception will pop up. But based on the evidence so far, I think the general order of operations is:
1 Member of a P5 conference
2 Fewest losses
3 Conference championship
4 Strength of schedule
5 Conference reputation (though this is tough to separate from #4, aside from non-conference games)
BC
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - BostonCard - 01-06-2020
The Pac-12 earned a B- in this grading rubric: https://collegefootballnews.com/2020/01/bowl-performance-grades-for-every-team-conference-how-did-everyone-do/9
UW gets an A, Cal and Oregon get A-, ASU gets a B, everyone else is a C- or worse.
I'm not sure I agree with Oregon's A-. Sure, they won, and it was the Rose Bowl, but they were largely dominated. I certainly didn't get the impression that this was a team that was good enough to make the playoffs but for an untimely loss.
BC
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - Beeg_Dawg - 01-06-2020
(01-06-2020, 02:41 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The Pac-12 earned a B- in this grading rubric: https://collegefootballnews.com/2020/01/bowl-performance-grades-for-every-team-conference-how-did-everyone-do/9
UW gets an A, Cal and Oregon get A-, ASU gets a B, everyone else is a C- or worse.
I'm not sure I agree with Oregon's A-. Sure, they won, and it was the Rose Bowl, but they were largely dominated. I certainly didn't get the impression that this was a team that was good enough to make the playoffs but for an untimely loss.
BC
Based solely on the eyeball test, Oregon would stand a chance against OK. The other 3 CFP teams - not a chance.
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - BostonCard - 01-06-2020
I’m not sure there is another team in football that would stand much of a chance against LSU/Clemson/tOSU, barring some sort of flukish result. LSU had three games all year that were within one score. Clemson had two games all year that were within a score, the inexplicable 1 point win against UNC and the six point win over OSU. Aside from the loss to Clemson, OSU’s closest game was the 11 point win over Penn State.
In my ranking of teams, it’s LSU - gap - Clemson - OSU - chasm - everyone else.
BC
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - ADPinWDC - 01-07-2020
So going into 2020, which Pac12 team could go 12-1 with the Conf Championship in hand and beat an SEC or BigTEN squad in the early OOC schedule as a metric?
Oregon loses Herbert, but has recruited well.
WASH loses Petersen.
UTAH's best shot was 2019; they lose at least 8 starters.
USC desperately needs a Defense.
Is KAL (gulp) a contender in the North?
Perhaps, the favorites for 2020 begin as Oregon vs AZST from the South?
For Bowl placement, how strong will our QB Mills be behind an improved OLine?
No idea how much of the Defense we lose in the portal.
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - Spiny_Norman - 01-07-2020
(01-07-2020, 12:04 PM)ADPinWDC Wrote: So going into 2020, which Pac12 team could go 12-1 with the Conf Championship in hand and beat an SEC or BigTEN squad in the early OOC schedule as a metric?
Oregon loses Herbert, but has recruited well.
WASH loses Petersen.
UTAH's best shot was 2019; they lose at least 8 starters.
USC desperately needs a Defense.
Is KAL (gulp) a contender in the North?
Perhaps, the favorites for 2020 begin as Oregon vs AZST from the South?
For Bowl placement, how strong will our QB Mills be behind an improved OLine?
No idea how much of the Defense we lose in the portal.
We'll get a good idea of national possibilities for the P12 in week 2 next season. Oregon hosts Ohio State in Eugene.
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - Farm93 - 01-07-2020
(01-07-2020, 12:50 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: We'll get a good idea of national possibilities for the P12 in week 2 next season. Oregon hosts Ohio State in Eugene.
And once again the narrative will be that the Pac-12 (not just Oregon) needs to win this game to have any chance of getting into the CFP. tOSU and certainly the BigTen overall, will not face a similar challenge.
If tOSU wins, the Pac-12 conference will likely be out if Oregon ultimately wins the Pac-12.
Even more than last week's Rose Bowl, that game will be massive for the Pac-12. Keeping Oregon in the CFP conversation will help the Pac-12 rep, the Pac-12 ratings, and even the Pac-12's future TV contracts. More importantly, an Oregon win would ding tOSU's chances a touch and would make it very hard for the tOSU to go to the CFP as a two loss champ if the Pac-12 champ has the same or better record.
Sadly, I suspect Oregon will be vulnerable early next year with a new QB and would think tOSU would be a 5-7 point favorite.
Sure wish Oregon could win that game, but I suspect Oregon will be weak early with their new QB and then get stronger later in the season.
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - SamuelMcF - 01-07-2020
Week 1 also features UW-Michigan, USC-Alabama (preemptive RIP), Cal-TCU, and Oregon St-Oklahoma St.
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - BostonCard - 01-07-2020
Some great match-ups
UW/Michigan: gotta believe Michigan will be favored here, but I don't know who everyone is bringing back. That being said, I'm pretty sure UW Eason is going pro so UW should have a new Q, and I think Patterson is out of eligibility. I wonder if one of the two teams will feature KJ Costello at QB.
USC/Alabama: Yeah, RIP SC, though Tua is going pro, so Alabama will have a new QB
Cal/TCU: TCU had a down year and Cal should be on the upswing, so I am guessing Cal should win this rematch of the Cheez Its bowl. Looks like the two teams have been going in opposite directions
OSU/OSU: Oklahoma State should be favored, but Oregon State is better than it has been. Jake Luton finally exhausted eligibility this season (his sixth), so you wonder whether there is a reversion to the mean
Oregon/tOSU: As noted, Oregon has had monster recruiting.... and yet tOSU's has been better the last few years. Plus Justin Fields will be back for tOSU, while Justin Herbert will not be for Oregon.
I'm thinking the Pac-12 will go 1-4 in these high profile non-conference games.
BC
PS, you forgot Stanford/William and Mary
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - SamuelMcF - 01-07-2020
(01-07-2020, 04:38 PM)BostonCard Wrote: PS, you forgot Stanford/William and Mary
Ah yes, a truly marquee OOC matchup on par with heavyweight bouts Arizona-Portland State and ASU-Northern Arizona.
RE: Pac-12 Bowl Game Record in 2019 - BostonCard - 01-07-2020
To be fair, we do have Notre Dame (every year), and next year we will have BYU, who had a downish year this last year (7-6), but is generally a pretty solid team (only one year with fewer than 7 wins in the last decade, mostly between 7 and 10 wins a year).
BC