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MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - Printable Version

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RE: MBB @ UCLA 7pm P12N - GK3 - 01-16-2020

(01-16-2020, 07:15 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Stanford now #11 in Adjusted D efficiency. 

AND... Bryce Wills now at 50% FT for the season!

Is it safe to say Stanford has a Big Three in Da Silva, Terry, and Jones?  It sure does look that way to me. Everything I have ever known about basketball is that if a team has three legit good players, the team is legit good too.

I think you need to give Davis and Wills a little love also.  We would not be where we are now without their defensive efforts.  We definitely have at least a top 3 offensively, but we have more like a top 5 defensively.  Everyone of the three you mention play pretty decent defense while Davis and Wills are pretty much off the chart.  The combination of both is what makes the team what it is at the moment.  It could get better.

RE: MBB @ UCLA 7pm P12N - winflop - 01-16-2020

(01-16-2020, 07:15 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Is it safe to say Stanford has a Big Three in Da Silva, Terry, and Jones?  It sure does look that way to me. Everything I have ever known about basketball is that if a team has three legit good players, the team is legit good too.

Terry, da Silva, and Davis (not Jones)

RE: MBB @ UCLA 7pm P12N - AlbanyCardinal - 01-16-2020

(01-16-2020, 08:00 AM)winflop Wrote:  
(01-16-2020, 07:15 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Is it safe to say Stanford has a Big Three in Da Silva, Terry, and Jones?  It sure does look that way to me. Everything I have ever known about basketball is that if a team has three legit good players, the team is legit good too.

Terry, da Silva, and Davis (not Jones)

Agreed. Davis sometimes carries this team. And even when he's not carrying it, he's fueling the team in ways that don't always show up on the scoreboard. Love his energy and commitment. Sometimes he's still reckless, driving without much of a lane against a taller, thicker defender, lol, but even then he's got chutzpah. This isn't to take anything away from Jones, who's a stud and such a key player for Stanford -- and only a frosh at that.

RE: MBB @ UCLA 7pm P12N - bl82 - 01-16-2020

And yesterday Davis was a warrior and leader, plain and simple. There were several possessions where I wondered if he would be able to drag his beaten up body down the court and/or perhaps take a possession at half speed...then he was hurtling toward the basket, sacrificing his body again, drawing another foul...or beating the man he was guarding to the spot in the floor he wanted to get to.

#warrior

RE: MBB @ UCLA 7pm P12N - AlbanyCardinal - 01-16-2020

(01-16-2020, 10:59 AM)bl82 Wrote:  And yesterday Davis was a warrior and leader, plain and simple.  There were several possessions where I wondered if he would be able to drag his beaten up body down the court and/or perhaps take a possession at half speed...then he was hurtling toward the basket, sacrificing his body again, drawing another foul...or beating the man he was guarding to the spot in the floor he wanted to get to.

#warrior

Absolutely. He's fearless and willing to sacrifice himself for the team, whether that's driving and drawing a foul or taking the charge as a defender. He's been all in since he landed on the Farm, playing wherever he was asked to and giving nothing but heart through two lean years. When I consider all that, but especially his presence on the court, he's one of my all-time favorite Stanford hoops players.

RE: MBB @ UCLA 7pm P12N - SamuelMcF - 01-16-2020

(01-16-2020, 11:13 AM)AlbanyCardinal Wrote:  
(01-16-2020, 10:59 AM)bl82 Wrote:  And yesterday Davis was a warrior and leader, plain and simple.  There were several possessions where I wondered if he would be able to drag his beaten up body down the court and/or perhaps take a possession at half speed...then he was hurtling toward the basket, sacrificing his body again, drawing another foul...or beating the man he was guarding to the spot in the floor he wanted to get to.

#warrior

Absolutely. He's fearless and willing to sacrifice himself for the team, whether that's driving and drawing a foul or taking the charge as a defender. He's been all in since he landed on the Farm, playing wherever he was asked to and giving nothing but heart through two lean years. When I consider all that, but especially his presence on the court, he's one of my all-time favorite Stanford hoops players.

Not to mention during the UW game, he was sick. (Like physically ill.) Gets clocked in the face towards the end of the 1H, and goes to the locker room. Comes back with 12 points and 5 assists in the 2H. Warrior.

RE: MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - Phogge - 01-16-2020

Count me wrong about this squad. They play with much more tenacity than the other Haase teams. Got to block out more on the defensive end. WTH has happened to UCLA?

RE: MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - SamuelMcF - 01-16-2020

(01-16-2020, 11:26 AM)Phogge Wrote:  WTH has happened to UCLA?

The previous coach recruited some good talent and squandered it. The new coach wants to run a defensive-minded system but doesn't have the players for that.

Sound familiar?

RE: MBB @ UCLA 7pm P12N - 76lsjumb - 01-16-2020

(01-16-2020, 11:25 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:  
(01-16-2020, 11:13 AM)AlbanyCardinal Wrote:  
(01-16-2020, 10:59 AM)bl82 Wrote:  And yesterday Davis was a warrior and leader, plain and simple.  There were several possessions where I wondered if he would be able to drag his beaten up body down the court and/or perhaps take a possession at half speed...then he was hurtling toward the basket, sacrificing his body again, drawing another foul...or beating the man he was guarding to the spot in the floor he wanted to get to.

#warrior


Absolutely. He's fearless and willing to sacrifice himself for the team, whether that's driving and drawing a foul or taking the charge as a defender. He's been all in since he landed on the Farm, playing wherever he was asked to and giving nothing but heart through two lean years. When I consider all that, but especially his presence on the court, he's one of my all-time favorite Stanford hoops players.

Not to mention during the UW game, he was sick. (Like physically ill.) Gets clocked in the face towards the end of the 1H, and goes to the locker room. Comes back with 12 points and 5 assists in the 2H. Warrior.

A Warrior?  He's way better than that.  At least this season...

Seriously, though, at least twice a game I find myself thinking, "Well, that's it... there goes the rest of the season" as he lies there for a while and then gets up to hobble back down the floor. and it's not just him.  Spencer Jones pulled up lame late in last night's game and grabbed the back of his left leg.  Hopefully, just a cramp.  Pretty sure Wills is going to kill himself on one of his drives at some point.  And the list goes on...

Unless this team has found a strength/conditioning coach who is apparently unknown to the rest of the Athletic Department, I fear there is a wall ahead that we may be rapidly approaching...

Leftcoast - Leftcoast - 01-16-2020

You know you are reading a Stanford fan board when discussion of a basketball win morphs into a debate on the proper use of regression analysis.

Go nerds!

RE: MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - Canalejas - 01-16-2020

Something about more signal, less noise?

RE: MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - burger - 01-17-2020

I went back to 1990.  It's not a whopping effect, but it seems to be real--bad football years tend to be good basketball years and vice versa.  Why can't we have it all?

[Image: gSOtfDL.png]

RE: MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - BostonCard - 01-17-2020

OK, if we are really going to nerd out (and like Winflop, I also taught introductory stats, though I am not a statistician, and the students were Pharmacy students), one thing that needs to be pointed out is that the observations are not independent, which is one of the requirements for performing an OLS regression.  Basically, there is an internal correlation structure between the datapoints, because consecutive seasons in a given season are more likely to have similar results than seasons with more time between them.  The bottom line is that Harbaugh came to Stanford one year before Dawkins, and the revival of Stanford football (including 10 consecutive bowl games between 2009 and 2018 coincided with the relative decline of basketball with only one NCAA tournament over that time).

This is one of my favorite stats related sites:

https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

BC

RE: MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - burger - 01-17-2020

(01-17-2020, 10:11 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  OK, if we are really going to nerd out (and like Winflop, I also taught introductory stats, though I am not a statistician, and the students were Pharmacy students), one thing that needs to be pointed out is that the observations are not independent, which is one of the requirements for performing an OLS regression.  Basically, there is an internal correlation structure between the datapoints, because consecutive seasons in a given season are more likely to have similar results than seasons with more time between them.  The bottom line is that Harbaugh came to Stanford one year before Dawkins, and the revival of Stanford football (including 10 consecutive bowl games between 2009 and 2018 coincided with the relative decline of basketball with only one NCAA tournament over that time).

This is one of my favorite stats related sites:

https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

BC

If you want to go ahead and do the full analysis that takes temporal autocorrelation and coaching effects into account, be my guest--I'll send you the spreadsheet with the data :)

But I still think that the take-home message remains: since 1990, if we had a good year for football, it was probably a subpar year for basketball and vice versa.  What you're saying just highlights the fact that this graph probably does not have much (any?) future predictive value.

RE: MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - CTcard - 01-17-2020

(01-17-2020, 10:11 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  OK, if we are really going to nerd out


All I can say in my defense for what follows is ... you started it.

Quote:(and like Winflop, I also taught introductory stats, though I am not a statistician, and the students were Pharmacy students),

Unlike you and Winflop, I have never taught introductory stats, but I have taught statistical mechanics and data analysis.

Quote:
one thing that needs to be pointed out is that the observations are not independent, which is one of the requirements for performing an OLS regression. 

Really, whether data points are independent or not is irrelevant for performing a least squares linear fit, at least as done here. The least squares fitting done will tell us the most likely values of the parameters of the line IF there is a linear relationship in the data set. It doesn't really tell you whether there actually is a linear relationship, though goodness of fit parameters certainly weigh in on the matter.

Quote:Basically, there is an internal correlation structure between the datapoints, because consecutive seasons in a given season are more likely to have similar results than seasons with more time between them.  The bottom line is that Harbaugh came to Stanford one year before Dawkins, and the revival of Stanford football (including 10 consecutive bowl games between 2009 and 2018 coincided with the relative decline of basketball with only one NCAA tournament over that time).

BC

The question of interest is independent of whether year to year results are independent in each sport alone. The hypothesis clearly includes the idea that there is a cosmic force that ensures that if we manage to hire a good football coach that makes year on year results good, then we will be forced into a bad basketball coach for a similar period of time. Thus the Harbaugh/Dawkins association you note is part of the theory.

However, the actual data set appears to indicate no real relationship, at least by my eye. The data looks roughly like a cloud. A linear fit will give SOME slope by definition, which happens to be negative in this case.

RE: MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - SamuelMcF - 01-17-2020

Oh no, what have I done...

RE: MBB 74 UCLA 59 --> 15-2 (4-0) - CompSci87 - 01-17-2020

This is a fun conversation!