47 million unemployed says the Fed - Printable Version
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RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - BostonCard - 04-02-2020
Worth noting that today 6.6 million people filed first time unemployment.
The Dow was up 469 points.
BC
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - fullmetal - 04-02-2020
The breakdown of medical services begins.
https://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-ambulance-service-stretched-heart-attack-sufferers-left-home-2020-4
These deaths won't be counted against Covid-19, but they should be counted as part of the preventable toll.
Let's not forget that many young people are suffering from Covid-19 as well, and some have died. I read that a 6-week old infant passed away yesterday.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 2006alum - 04-03-2020
(04-02-2020, 01:49 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: If I was singularly in charge, I would immediately institute massive taxation and wealth redistribution.
It is utterly insane and stupid to send countries into perilous debt when corporations and individuals are sitting on billions if not trillions of dollars when millions upon millions are going to be suffering with nothing, many of whom did what they were suppose to do, get good grades, earn degrees, and find employment.
We play this game of Monopoly for our lives, but unlike the game that ends and starts anew, we never start over. This is why sports is so compelling. Every year it's a new season. You don't win your league, by 10 games, buy off the commissioner, and write the rules so you get the top 2 draft picks, and start next season with your 10 game lead. But we do this with our economic system.
You can't have 1% of the population to control 50% of the world's wealth, allow such a minority to rig the system we live in to keep the 99% of the population in servitude to them, then watch it blow up and ruin the lives of most people, and there not be immense consequences.
You may get your wish - it looks like Pelosi is not going to drop pushing for another stimulus package ASAP. Totally bizarre that McConnell is slow rolling her because it seems beyond obvious. I assume the White House will intervene soon because this is very on brand for Trump and seems like an obvious winner for all:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1246071638237601792?s=20[/tweet]
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - BostonCard - 04-03-2020
Unemployment numbers today:
https://www.ft.com/content/6f5f2306-7531-4a88-a12c-2a662184cbb3
701,000 jobs lost, unemployment rate up to 4.4%
This number reflects data from March 12, and in the last two weeks, we have since had 10 million file unemployment claims. As it is, it is about as bad as the job losses we saw at the peak of the great recession. The April unemployment report will be ghastly.
BC
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 2006alum - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 08:46 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Unemployment numbers today:Perhaps T.S. Eliot was right - April really is the cruelest month.
https://www.ft.com/content/6f5f2306-7531-4a88-a12c-2a662184cbb3
701,000 jobs lost, unemployment rate up to 4.4%
This number reflects data from March 12, and in the last two weeks, we have since had 10 million file unemployment claims. As it is, it is about as bad as the job losses we saw at the peak of the great recession. The April unemployment report will be ghastly.
BC
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - burger - 04-03-2020
This article is estimating that the current unemployment rate is 13%, which would be the highest since the great depression. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html
Will surely be higher by next week, and then the following week, and then the week after that...
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - Mick - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 10:01 AM)burger Wrote: This article is estimating that the current unemployment rate is 13%, which would be the highest since the great depression. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-rate-great-depression.html
Will surely be higher by next week, and then the following week, and then the week after that...
The article is trying to get at the true unemployment rate. It didn't include undocumented immigrants who lost their work, "discouraged" workers which recently have been about 1.4 million and a few other categories.
Average weekly RIF is 225k. Two weeks ago, 3.307 million. Last week, 6.648 million. So the two week total is 9.955 million. Reports are released at 8:30 am Eastern for the morbidly curious.
6,991 American coronavirus deaths (worldometer) as of 5:24 EST on 4/3. 9.955 million unemployed in the last two weeks. 1,423 lost jobs per death. Be curious to watch that ratio over time.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - BostonCard - 04-03-2020
1320 of those deaths just in the last 24 hours, and still rising.
BC
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - Farm93 - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 04:56 PM)BostonCard Wrote: 1320 of those deaths just in the last 24 hours, and still rising.President Trump's preferred governors are having some problems now. The rate of the increases in Georgia, Florida and Louisiana are breathtaking. They all started stay-at-home programs so late, and many still permit church gatherings as an exemption. That's crazy. You'd think they never heard about South Korea's Patient #31.
BC
The rest of the world must marvel at how stubborn the USA is on this outbreak.
Ugh...
I was proud in March to live in CA when Governor Newsom took the initiative and implemented stay-at-home steps first.
Now in April, I get the sense that CA might just be the place to be in the USA as CA seems closest to flattening the curve.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - cardcrimson - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 08:37 PM)Farm93 Wrote:(04-03-2020, 04:56 PM)BostonCard Wrote:President Trump's preferred governors are having some problems now. The rate of the increases in Georgia, Florida and Louisiana are breathtaking. They all started stay-at-home programs so late, and many still permit church gatherings as an exemption. That's crazy. You'd think they never heard about South Korea's Patient #31.
Um. Louisiana's governor is a democrat. . . .
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - magnus - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 08:37 PM)Farm93 Wrote: I was proud in March to live in CA when Governor Newsom took the initiative and implemented stay-at-home steps first.Please correct me if I'm wrong, but i got the feeling that while the Bay Area is doing better than expected, SoCal is rising at a bad pace?
Now in April, I get the sense that CA might just be the place to be in the USA as CA seems closest to flattening the curve.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - Goose - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 08:56 PM)magnus Wrote:(04-03-2020, 08:37 PM)Farm93 Wrote: I was proud in March to live in CA when Governor Newsom took the initiative and implemented stay-at-home steps first.Please correct me if I'm wrong, but i got the feeling that while the Bay Area is doing better than expected, SoCal is rising at a bad pace?
Now in April, I get the sense that CA might just be the place to be in the USA as CA seems closest to flattening the curve.
Things are made more difficult to interpret by the fact Los Angeles County has such a large population. Their absolute number of cases is higher, but the number of cases per 100,000 population is 45.2 while Santa Clara County's is 56.9 (a bit worse). However, as I read it, the trend in Santa Clara County is flat, while it is still rising in LA County.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - BostonCard - 04-03-2020
There have been governors on the ball from both parties (Newsome in California, DeWine in Ohio) and governors who were too resitant to shut things down from both parties (Cuomo was a bit late to the party, I'm afraid, and Deblasio was a nightmare in New York; DeSantis in Florida is the poster boy on the Republican side).
BC
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - Farm93 - 04-04-2020
(04-03-2020, 08:46 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:Sorry....didn't want to drive into specifics for each thought for fear of making it too long.(04-03-2020, 08:37 PM)Farm93 Wrote:(04-03-2020, 04:56 PM)BostonCard Wrote:President Trump's preferred governors are having some problems now. The rate of the increases in Georgia, Florida and Louisiana are breathtaking. They all started stay-at-home programs so late, and many still permit church gatherings as an exemption. That's crazy. You'd think they never heard about South Korea's Patient #31.
Um. Louisiana's governor is a democrat. . . .
History will not view Trump's red state governors fondly. Their loyalty to his stunningly inconsistent talking points will hurt them once Trump is out of office, if not sooner. The idea that we still have 5 governors yet to issue stay-at-home orders is hard to believe. I am not sure if they really believe Trump's assessment of the situation, or if they correctly understand that their citizens will be richly rewarded with masks, ventilators and key industry aid if they stay on message and avoid the stay-at-home orders.
The southern (and red) states as a group are very late to the crisis' urgency. Georgia, Florida, Louisiana and others have new case rates that match CA now despite much smaller populations. In so many state the citizens are treating stay-at-home as some form of holiday with a naive belief that it will all be over in a few days. I guess I understand how that can happen as POTUS and his friends are still the chance for easy miracles to make this better.
The insistence by many governors across the USA to carve out so many exceptions to orders as essential is crazy. Those exceptions will kill thousands, perhaps tens of thousands. We don't even need to use the USA experience. South Korea had everything under control after 30 positive cases. However, the 31st patient declined to be tested and then went off to South Korea's version of a mega church. In just two weekends that single individual managed to spread the virus to thousands of fellow worshipers, and killing many of those people. Everyone needs to worship from home. Those megachurches usually have the ability to broadcast beyond the walls of their structure. Use that now.
Even today POTUS implies the economy will bounce right back in 2-3 weeks, coincidentally right after NYC hits its apex. The apex for NYC likely represents our peak ventilator need, but that is just a noteworthy battle in this Coronavirus war. The Coronavirus War will be with us for 12-18 months with all citizens making several sacrifices during the duration of the war, not just the next 2 weeks. Just wish POTUS would do a bit more to prepare the nation for that war rather than focus on the daily messaging often aimed to boost the stock market that day.
All of that noted, the SF Bay Area has, once again, become a shining beacon for all that is possible in the USA. By all accounts the SF Bay Area should be overwhelmed with community spread given how many people have strong professional ties with China and international travel. Keep doing all you are doing as everyone that stays at home is saving lives. Lives in CA. Lives in the SF Bay Area. Maybe even lives in your own family.
FWIW - As an Orange County resident I can assure you that our shutdown efforts are not as strong as in the SF Bay Area. Loads of people doing loads of unessential things every day. I think "we" are doing better than other places in the USA, but nothing close to the SF Bay Area's commitment level.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - oldalum - 04-04-2020
As I just posted in another thread, over the past 5 days SCC has averaged 60 new cases/day. For the 5 days before that, the average was 78/day. Not proof it's declining, but sure doesn't seem to be increasing.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - Mick - 04-09-2020
(03-31-2020, 08:38 AM)82lsju Wrote:Quote:The world’s largest economy will shrink an annualized 34% in the second quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of 24%, economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. Unemployment will soar to 15% by mid-year, up from a previous forecast of 9%, they wrote.
https://fortune.com/2020/03/31/goldman-sachs-prediction-gdp-contraction-q2/
their previous forecast was on 20 Mar 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/goldman-sees-an-unprecedented-stop-of-economic-activity-with-2nd-quarter-gdp-contracting-by-24percent.html
![[Image: 106453972-158471963668320200320_goldman_...=630&h=354]](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106453972-158471963668320200320_goldman_forecast.png?v=1584719850&w=630&h=354)
There is no way whatsoever that we will have positive economic growth in Q3 or Q4. Not a prayer.
(04-01-2020, 11:01 AM)2006alum Wrote: Here's a new depressing new estimate:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1245406152793501697?s=20[/tweet]
It's April 9 and we're at 16,780,000 unemployed in just three weeks. if the depressing estimate is 20 million unemployed by July, how are we going to keep it below 20 million when no one can go to work except the essential workers?
(04-02-2020, 06:42 AM)2006alum Wrote:(04-02-2020, 06:13 AM)Mick Wrote:Mick, whether or not any one of us on this board "live[s] like the 51% of America who live paycheck to paycheck," it's probably safe to assume we all have friends and family who do, since, as you say, it's half the country. So nothing you are saying is something you are uniquely positioned to have awareness of vis-a-vis the rest of us.(04-01-2020, 05:57 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Interesting lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic:
Basically, states that had stricter social distancing policies had the highest growth in manufacturing activity.
BC
Agreed, it's interesting. Unfortunately, China does our manufacturing now. Perhaps they will be the beneficiary of post-pandemic success. Manufacturing is only 8.8% of our GDP at present.
(04-01-2020, 04:48 PM)2006alum Wrote: This is a false dichotomy. If we did nothing to slow the virus, our healthcare system would be completely overrun, and with it, our economy, but with no easy path back because we'd have no healthcare system.
Also a false dichotomy. I didn't say "Do nothing." Obviously we need to take reasonable steps to avoid the coronavirus.
What I'm trying to say is that this isn't about Wall Street, like I've seen a few posters mention on this site. This is about Main Street. America is in the process of voluntarily eliminating an enormous portion of its economy, up to 67 million jobs, according to the St. Louis Fed governor.
In an average week, pre-pandemic, about 225k jobless claims were filed. This week, 3.5 million people filed for unemployment (Edit: the revised initial claim is 6.6 million, see link below). 3.3 million filed for unemployment the week before. BofA's senior economist says it will be 5.5 million next week. That's not Wall Street, that's ten million people out of a job on Main Street. 10 million in two weeks. There are 155.76 million employed in America. By fall, that number will be under 100 million people.
I realize most people on this board don't live like the 51% of America who live paycheck to paycheck, or the 40% of America that can't afford an unforeseen $400 expense. All I'm saying is that it didn't have to be that way. We didn't have to kill the next generation.
See you at the riots in September...
However, for all you are saying "it didn't have to be this way," I've yet to hear from you a clear, concrete, and detailed proposal for what way it could/should have been instead. That's what I don't get. Tell me precisely what you think we should have done instead.
The only countries to have avoided pretty severe lockdowns are South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong (and possibly Sweden -- jury is still out). Those countries have done widespread testing, fever checks to enter just about anywhere public establishment, insanely effective social contact tracing, and mandatory and widespread isolation for even those potentially exposed to someone who was diagnosed.
And if that's what you think we should be doing instead, I'm surprised you aren't joining the chorus of the rest of us who have been practically screaming at the ineptitude of our country's leadership, for failing to roll out tests, then for lying that "anyone who wants a test can get tested," and now for dismissing the importance of testing altogether. Six weeks ago the leader of our country said that it was "just 15 cases and they'll go away any day now." That statement reflected the honest thinking of our nation's leader about how important it was to be prepared for this.
I would think you'd have lamented, repeatedly, as several others of us have, how one of the most important interim measures will be developing and deploying a rapid antibody test so that we can at least determine who has (potential short-term) immunity to resume normal activities.
And I would have thought you'd be apoplectic that the Trump Administration shipped 18 tons of PPE to China in mid-February because apparently our country's leadership didn't anticipate any possibility we'd need it here in the United States. Without effective PPE, our frontline medical providers will be sitting ducks, and with them anyone who needs to use the hospital for any reason.
So I guess, tl;dr, tell me what you think we should be doing instead that isn't what I've just outlined, and what many of us have been crying out about over the past month?
Apparently I've failed the anti-Trump loyalty oath. I don't make a very good Fascist, true.
FYI, I think the administration has done a poor job. I just don't feel the need to include it in every post like you and burger.
(04-02-2020, 04:43 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Worth noting that today 6.6 million people filed first time unemployment.
The Dow was up 469 points.
BC
Also worth noting that last week's unemployment was revised upward by 219k. Now at 16,780,000 first time unemployment claims in three weeks.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - chrisk - 04-09-2020
The objective of the PPP plan is to have workers continue as employees (funded by the government) so the reported unemployment rate could reach 15-20% but still not reflect the true extent of workers who are not being effectively utilized.
The GS growth estimates for Q3 and Q4 reflect quarter-on-quarter growth, not year-on-year, so it is not unreasonable to expect that Q3 would be better than Q2, an Q4 to be better than Q3, although it is not a slam dunk.
RE: 47 million unemployed says the Fed - 2006alum - 04-09-2020
Since the slant of this board seems to be more Main Street than Wall Street-oriented, I thought some of you might get a kick out of this short interview on CNBC. I, for one, found it hilarious and so on point:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1248398068464025606?s=20[/tweet]
Incidentally, survey data suggests that (a) job losses and reductions are much more widespread than reported in official unemployment numbers, and (b) (surprise surprise) younger workers have been hit much harder:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1248362072750071809?s=20[/tweet]