Suicide wave coming? - Printable Version
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RE: Suicide wave coming? - BostonCard - 04-09-2020
First time unemployment claims were "down" to 6.6 million. That puts the cumulative three week job losses at around 16 million or about 10% of the work force. The Dow Jones is up 450 points. Go figure.
BC
RE: Suicide wave coming? - cardcrimson - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 09:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: First time unemployment claims were "down" to 6.6 million. That puts the cumulative three week job losses at around 16 million or about 10% of the work force. The Dow Jones is up 450 points. Go figure.
BC
Better than I expected/feared. A lot of small businesses are holding on to employees to qualify for the PPP loan forgiveness. That should hold, IF we figure out how to effectively reopen the economy.
RE: Suicide wave coming? - oldalum - 04-09-2020
WSJ reports that almost 1/3 of renters in the U.S. did not pay their April rent.
RE: Suicide wave coming? - burger - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 09:52 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(04-09-2020, 09:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: First time unemployment claims were "down" to 6.6 million. That puts the cumulative three week job losses at around 16 million or about 10% of the work force. The Dow Jones is up 450 points. Go figure.
BC
Better than I expected/feared. A lot of small businesses are holding on to employees to qualify for the PPP loan forgiveness. That should hold, IF we figure out how to effectively reopen the economy.
Except for all the businesses that can't get loans because of the disastrous rollout by the administration: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-small-business-loan-programs-big-problems-explained.html
RE: Suicide wave coming? - Scooter_Stepford - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 10:12 AM)burger Wrote:(04-09-2020, 09:52 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(04-09-2020, 09:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: First time unemployment claims were "down" to 6.6 million. That puts the cumulative three week job losses at around 16 million or about 10% of the work force. The Dow Jones is up 450 points. Go figure.
BC
Better than I expected/feared. A lot of small businesses are holding on to employees to qualify for the PPP loan forgiveness. That should hold, IF we figure out how to effectively reopen the economy.
Except for all the businesses that can't get loans because of the disastrous rollout by the administration: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-small-business-loan-programs-big-problems-explained.html
Burger:
Does your background include any experience implementing large software projects integrating thousands of firms and servicing hundreds of thousands of end users?
Were you able to complete such in a week, without issues?
RE: Suicide wave coming? - burger - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 11:52 AM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote: Burger:
Does your background include any experience implementing large software projects integrating thousands of firms and servicing hundreds of thousands of end users?
Were you able to complete such in a week, without issues?
Search for some articles on how effective the rollout of business loans was in Germany, etc. I guess they have magic project-administration powers or something that could not possibly be replicated in the US.
RE: Suicide wave coming? - oldalum - 04-09-2020
"I know nah-tink" [to be read in the accent of Sergeant Shultz] about this subject, but maybe the Germans don't have to worry as much about fraud and abuse as we do? Of course, just sending $1200 electronically into the bank accounts of people the IRS already knows the account numbers for and whether they qualify for it is taking a few weeks.
RE: Suicide wave coming? - Scooter_Stepford - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 12:21 PM)burger Wrote:(04-09-2020, 11:52 AM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote: Burger:
Does your background include any experience implementing large software projects integrating thousands of firms and servicing hundreds of thousands of end users?
Were you able to complete such in a week, without issues?
Search for some articles on how effective the rollout of business loans was in Germany, etc. I guess they have magic project-administration powers or something that could not possibly be replicated in the US.
Thanks for not answering the questions. I take it that you have zero experience, and therefore zero context, on which to base your comments. But I’m sure it felt great to write “disastrous rollout by the administration.”
A quick view of several articles re: German rollout (from Bloomberg, FT, Reuters) paint a somewhat different picture than you’re presenting. Lots of “the German plan will”, not “the German plan does”. Quotes by businesses concerned they will be left out. Comments that money will not be available in days, but in weeks or months.
Sounds familiar, and to be expected, frankly.
The Swiss, on the other hand, appear to be off to a good start.
RE: Suicide wave coming? - burger - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 12:59 PM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote:(04-09-2020, 12:21 PM)burger Wrote:Thanks for not answering the questions. I take it that you have zero experience, and therefore zero context, on which to base your comments. But I’m sure it felt great to write “disastrous rollout by the administration.”(04-09-2020, 11:52 AM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote: Burger:
Does your background include any experience implementing large software projects integrating thousands of firms and servicing hundreds of thousands of end users?
Were you able to complete such in a week, without issues?
Search for some articles on how effective the rollout of business loans was in Germany, etc. I guess they have magic project-administration powers or something that could not possibly be replicated in the US.
A quick view of several articles re: German rollout (from Bloomberg, FT, Reuters) paint a somewhat different picture than you’re presenting. Lots of “the German plan will”, not “the German plan does”. Quotes by businesses concerned they will be left out. Comments that money will not be available in days, but in weeks or months.
Sounds familiar, and to be expected, frankly.
The Swiss, on the other hand, appear to be off to a good start.
You're right--it wasn't Germany, it was Switzerland that I was thinking of. Germany just passed their program a few days ago.
So let's emulate Switzerland instead: https://www.ft.com/content/9ab135d3-f85e-4ca8-9bb4-0e487e134b10
Maybe I should have used the word "unravels" instead of "disastrous" like the New York Times did two hours ago: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/smallbusiness/small-business-disaster-loans-coronavirus.html
RE: Suicide wave coming? - BostonCard - 04-09-2020
For better or for worse, the US doesn't tend to have as much of a dirigiste relationship between business and government. I think that probably serves us well in most circumstances, and can be overcome, but it does mean that it is probably harder to implement government programs through private companies.
Ironically, (again, for better or for worse), Trump has changed that and probably has a more French-like attitude towards the relationship between the state and business.
BC
RE: Suicide wave coming? - oldalum - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 02:03 PM)BostonCard Wrote: dirigisteOk, this is the second time I've had to look up a word on this board today. The other was "knock on" which I learned is derived from rugby--who knew? (don't answer that!). Reading this board is definitely a learning experience, which is mainly why I do it. Thanks to all you literate and learned posters!
RE: Suicide wave coming? - Scooter_Stepford - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 01:11 PM)burger Wrote:(04-09-2020, 12:59 PM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote:(04-09-2020, 12:21 PM)burger Wrote:Thanks for not answering the questions. I take it that you have zero experience, and therefore zero context, on which to base your comments. But I’m sure it felt great to write “disastrous rollout by the administration.”(04-09-2020, 11:52 AM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote: Burger:
Does your background include any experience implementing large software projects integrating thousands of firms and servicing hundreds of thousands of end users?
Were you able to complete such in a week, without issues?
Search for some articles on how effective the rollout of business loans was in Germany, etc. I guess they have magic project-administration powers or something that could not possibly be replicated in the US.
A quick view of several articles re: German rollout (from Bloomberg, FT, Reuters) paint a somewhat different picture than you’re presenting. Lots of “the German plan will”, not “the German plan does”. Quotes by businesses concerned they will be left out. Comments that money will not be available in days, but in weeks or months.
Sounds familiar, and to be expected, frankly.
The Swiss, on the other hand, appear to be off to a good start.
You're right--it wasn't Germany, it was Switzerland that I was thinking of. Germany just passed their program a few days ago.
So let's emulate Switzerland instead: https://www.ft.com/content/9ab135d3-f85e-4ca8-9bb4-0e487e134b10
Maybe I should have used the word "unravels" instead of "disastrous" like the New York Times did two hours ago: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/smallbusiness/small-business-disaster-loans-coronavirus.html
You certainly know that the NYT article is about a different program than the NYmag article discussed.
Right?
Look, your view on the fecklessness of the administration comes through loud and clear. And repeatedly. Many times it is on point; your link to the ABC News piece—if proven true—is all you need. However, your zeal to play gotcha on any and everything diminishes your legitimate perspective, at least IMO. You probably don’t care, which is fine.
In this case, you jumped on something you know little about and took it to an absurd conclusion. A little common sense and experience would lead one to conclude that designing, engineering, and implementing a complex program with thousands of disparate intermediaries, many times that number of final customers, and with $350 billion on the line will, unfortunately, take some time to get right. For it to be where it is today-warts and all-is actually an extraordinary achievement. Of course, that doesn’t pay the bills.
And just so you know, my wife is a successful small business owner whose future and those of her nine employees depends on receiving funding through PPP. Our family has a strong interest that this get done right, and quickly.
RE: Suicide wave coming? - JustAnotherFan - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 09:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: First time unemployment claims were "down" to 6.6 million. That puts the cumulative three week job losses at around 16 million or about 10% of the work force. The Dow Jones is up 450 points. Go figure.
BC
Dow Jones is not a measure of economic health. It is a measure of the perception of future corporate wealth. Destroying small businesses allows for larger corporations to consolidate assets and power.
RE: Suicide wave coming? - burger - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 04:11 PM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote: You certainly know that the NYT article is about a different program than the NYmag article discussed.
Right?
Look, your view on the fecklessness of the administration comes through loud and clear. And repeatedly. Many times it is on point; your link to the ABC News piece—if proven true—is all you need. However, your zeal to play gotcha on any and everything diminishes your legitimate perspective, at least IMO. You probably don’t care, which is fine.
In this case, you jumped on something you know little about and took it to an absurd conclusion. A little common sense and experience would lead one to conclude that designing, engineering, and implementing a complex program with thousands of disparate intermediaries, many times that number of final customers, and with $350 billion on the line will, unfortunately, take some time to get right. For it to be where it is today-warts and all-is actually an extraordinary achievement. Of course, that doesn’t pay the bills.
And just so you know, my wife is a successful small business owner whose future and those of her nine employees depends on receiving funding through PPP. Our family has a strong interest that this get done right, and quickly.
Good catch on the NYT article and my mistake. Keeping up with all the minutiae of everything is a full-time job, and I already have another. This is the article I should've linked to: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/business/coronavirus-ppp-small-business-aid.html
Accepting all of these delays as a given is silly. Shortly after an emergency was declared, EPA went ahead and suspended basically all regulations: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/489753-epa-suspends-enforcement-of-environmental-laws-amid-coronavirus
SBA, meanwhile, is insisting that everyone's papers have to be in order before money goes out. It's pretty clear that the Trump administration is more motivated to help polluters pollute than it is to help working people make a living. If Trump had made getting money out to businesses and workers priority number one, it would have happened. But it wasn't.
And even if these screw ups are just run-of-the-mill screw-ups, it's still on Trump. He's been in office over 3 years. His people run every department and office. If he didn't put the right people in place to have this done right, it's on him.
I am glad to hear your wife is looking after her employees. I know that it's not just workers who are in trouble right now.
Lastly, it's not just SBA loans that are a problem. Unemployment is a disaster, too, with brobdingnagian delays and problems getting people enrolled. Some of this might be unavoidable, but I've been reading about how making unemployment hard to get is a feature, not a bug, for some states like Florida. California has had delays, too, but I know from an employee working in that office that they are doing everything they can to process the applications and even moving people from other departments to speed it up. More on that here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americas-social-safety-net-wasnt-ready-for-the-coronavirus-crisis/
RE: Suicide wave coming? - JustAnotherFan - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 09:52 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:(04-09-2020, 09:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: First time unemployment claims were "down" to 6.6 million. That puts the cumulative three week job losses at around 16 million or about 10% of the work force. The Dow Jones is up 450 points. Go figure.
BC
Better than I expected/feared. A lot of small businesses are holding on to employees to qualify for the PPP loan forgiveness. That should hold, IF we figure out how to effectively reopen the economy.
I can assure you that a lot of small businesses will be going out of business having been unable to access the 'help' the government was offering small businesses.
My anecdotal experience:
Told to prepare to go on Friday during the day. Sat by the computer all day waiting to apply immediately as EIDL had proven that if you weren't first in line you could likely get locked out (gives advantages to larger companies with administrative and finance roles). So there I sat. Got emails promising they would open the application eventually but no indication on when. I contacted them on multiple mediums asking what was up, and they told me to keep waiting.
Saturday rolls around and now the bank is saying to not wait on PPP and to apply to any of the other SBA loans available. What? What about the PPP you got us all hopeful for?
Saturday evening they send an email saying they are opening applications up for select clients to 'test' the system. Of course those select clients are the ones with the largest accounts and most products.
Sunday morning I can finally apply, and do so within 30 minutes of being able to.
Then I read that the prior applications already exhausted the available funds multiple times over. Pretty sure it is first come first serve.
This is not me whining that I am not getting mine. I expected nothing and it looks like that is what I'll probably get. We did the right thing and shut down to support physical distancing a full three weeks before the governor gave the statewide directive. Oh well.
RE: Suicide wave coming? - Mick - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 09:54 AM)oldalum Wrote: WSJ reports that almost 1/3 of renters in the U.S. did not pay their April rent.
44% of NYC residents are concerned they can't pay their rent.
(04-09-2020, 07:15 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:(04-09-2020, 09:29 AM)BostonCard Wrote: First time unemployment claims were "down" to 6.6 million. That puts the cumulative three week job losses at around 16 million or about 10% of the work force. The Dow Jones is up 450 points. Go figure.
BC
Dow Jones is not a measure of economic health. It is a measure of the perception of future corporate wealth. Destroying small businesses allows for larger corporations to consolidate assets and power.
It also represents an investing opportunity for private equity and venture capital in the same way that those organizations sell their shares in their investee clients during roaring markets. As the market and the economy deteriorates, CEOs who have not stockpiled cash find themselves in (near desperate) need for cash, and will be more motivated to give up equity or settle for less favorable terms.
(04-09-2020, 04:11 PM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote: You certainly know that the NYT article is about a different program than the NYmag article discussed.
Right?
Look, your view on the fecklessness of the administration comes through loud and clear. And repeatedly. Many times it is on point; your link to the ABC News piece—if proven true—is all you need. However, your zeal to play gotcha on any and everything diminishes your legitimate perspective, at least IMO. You probably don’t care, which is fine.
In this case, you jumped on something you know little about and took it to an absurd conclusion. A little common sense and experience would lead one to conclude that designing, engineering, and implementing a complex program with thousands of disparate intermediaries, many times that number of final customers, and with $350 billion on the line will, unfortunately, take some time to get right. For it to be where it is today-warts and all-is actually an extraordinary achievement. Of course, that doesn’t pay the bills.
And just so you know, my wife is a successful small business owner whose future and those of her nine employees depends on receiving funding through PPP. Our family has a strong interest that this get done right, and quickly.
My guess is he's very young and full of the confidence of smart, inexperienced people. At least, that's how he presents himself.
RE: Suicide wave coming? - Scooter_Stepford - 04-09-2020
(04-09-2020, 07:16 PM)burger Wrote:(04-09-2020, 04:11 PM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote: You certainly know that the NYT article is about a different program than the NYmag article discussed.
Right?
Look, your view on the fecklessness of the administration comes through loud and clear. And repeatedly. Many times it is on point; your link to the ABC News piece—if proven true—is all you need. However, your zeal to play gotcha on any and everything diminishes your legitimate perspective, at least IMO. You probably don’t care, which is fine.
In this case, you jumped on something you know little about and took it to an absurd conclusion. A little common sense and experience would lead one to conclude that designing, engineering, and implementing a complex program with thousands of disparate intermediaries, many times that number of final customers, and with $350 billion on the line will, unfortunately, take some time to get right. For it to be where it is today-warts and all-is actually an extraordinary achievement. Of course, that doesn’t pay the bills.
And just so you know, my wife is a successful small business owner whose future and those of her nine employees depends on receiving funding through PPP. Our family has a strong interest that this get done right, and quickly.
Good catch on the NYT article and my mistake. Keeping up with all the minutiae of everything is a full-time job, and I already have another. This is the article I should've linked to: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/business/coronavirus-ppp-small-business-aid.html
Accepting all of these delays as a given is silly. Shortly after an emergency was declared, EPA went ahead and suspended basically all regulations: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/489753-epa-suspends-enforcement-of-environmental-laws-amid-coronavirus
SBA, meanwhile, is insisting that everyone's papers have to be in order before money goes out. It's pretty clear that the Trump administration is more motivated to help polluters pollute than it is to help working people make a living. If Trump had made getting money out to businesses and workers priority number one, it would have happened. But it wasn't.
And even if these screw ups are just run-of-the-mill screw-ups, it's still on Trump. He's been in office over 3 years. His people run every department and office. If he didn't put the right people in place to have this done right, it's on him.
I am glad to hear your wife is looking after her employees. I know that it's not just workers who are in trouble right now.
Lastly, it's not just SBA loans that are a problem. Unemployment is a disaster, too, with of immense proportions delays and problems getting people enrolled. Some of this might be unavoidable, but I've been reading about how making unemployment hard to get is a feature, not a bug, for some states like Florida. California has had delays, too, but I know from an employee working in that office that they are doing everything they can to process the applications and even moving people from other departments to speed it up. More on that here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americas-social-safety-net-wasnt-ready-for-the-coronavirus-crisis/
I’m not ‘accepting’ anything, but for the reasons stated I don’t ‘expect’ much more and even though it hasn’t worked out for my family yet I am still impressed with what has been done so far. This is an enormous and complex undertaking; nothing similar has ever been attempted afaik. I believe (hope with fingers and toes crossed?) that a lot of today’s pain will be gone in the next few weeks. As JAF and others point out, unfortunately that will be too late for many.
And you are completely right about where the buck stops. However, it is my view that even if you assigned Bill Gates and Steve Jobs and the Google guys and Zuckerberg and Ross Perot and the very best in finance and government that the results wouldn’t be that different. The task is that big.
You correctly note the challenges in the unemployment system. Again, not surprising given the unprecedented surge in applicants. Also, this is one of the stated reasons for the PPP; it was recognized that the states were wholly unprepared for this wave. By keeping employees on payroll they would not further burden the unemployment system. President Trump has said this many times.
We need to start hearing of and seeing progress very soon. Otherwise Mick’s worst fears might come to pass...
RE: Suicide wave coming? - burger - 04-10-2020
(04-09-2020, 07:51 PM)Mick Wrote: \
My guess is he's very young and full of the confidence of smart, inexperienced people. At least, that's how he presents himself.
That's kind of insulting, isn't it? If you want to disagree with me, go for it. Ad hominem attacks are lame though.
But two can play at this game. I'm guessing you're old because you have the crankiness of an old person.
(I don't actually think old people are cranky in general. I'm just showing how dumb your comment was)
RE: Suicide wave coming? - oldalum - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 07:24 AM)burger Wrote: you have the crankiness of an old person.Hey! I resemble that remark!
(you probably have to be my age to remember the 3 Stooges, whom I saw live once at the old Circle Star Theater in San Carlos)
RE: Suicide wave coming? - 2006alum - 04-10-2020
Now that we're literally engaging in ad hominem attacks, closing this puppy up. Let's try again in a new thread.