The Georgia experiment - Printable Version
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RE: lex24 - needle - 05-17-2020
Quote:And my definition of it “ working” is that there isn’t a big jump in deaths.
You might be interested in checking out this CDC data table, Excess Deaths Associated With COVID-19:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
It's astounding to see in this bar chart how deaths in NYC greatly exceeded what is typical--by about 600% in the peak mortality week--then contrast that with many states that apparently* have not seen one death considered truly beyond the norm (i.e. in excess) given historical death data.
*Be sure to choose "Excess deaths with and without weighing" from the menu dropdown to get a feel for how much of the chart for each state is owed to statistical modeling (for lack of a better term) given the varied lag times states have in reporting death information.
RE: lex24 - needle - 05-24-2020
Update, as of May 24:
Friday, April 24
Confirmed new cases: 804
7-day average: 747.3
NOTE: The Apr. 24 number changed by less than -1% compared to what was reported on the GA state website May 17
Friday, May 8
Confirmed new cases: 557
7-day average: 515.1
Note: The May 8 number changed by less than 10% compared to what was reported May 17.
+++I feel comfortable saying that based on these numbers--more on that later--GA was definitely showing a significant decline in covid-19 cases into early May.
Friday, May 15
Confirmed new cases: 796
7-day average: 618.1
NOTE: The May 15 number changed by about 260% compared to what was reported May 17.
Friday, May 22
Confirmed new cases: 255
7-day average: 475.9
NOTE As of May 24.
+++The data so far indicates a moderate increase in covid-19 cases in Georgia since the state's businesses began opening up, reversing a trend of declining cases.
ABOUT THESE NUMBERS: Georgia is among at least a few states to admit that antibody tests were intermingled with viral tests in state data, but it's unclear to me if this would meaningfully change the data I've presented in this post.
I believe positive antibody test results were excluded from the positive totals statewide (though I'm unsure of that); the concern as I understand it is that this skewed the positivity rate that was based on a denominator that included some antibody tests as well as viral tests.
https://apnews.com/1cb65951963252e7b4d9615f2e70d3b1
RE: The Georgia experiment - 82lsju - 05-24-2020
an imperfect measure of how people in Georgia have changed behavior is opentable reservations
currently -75%, 26 Apr was the last day they were -100%
https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
RE: The Georgia experiment - Snorlax94 - 05-24-2020
(05-24-2020, 07:30 PM)82lsju Wrote: an imperfect measure of how people in Georgia have changed behavior is opentable reservationsWhile novel, I think ultimately the OpenTable dataset is so biased so as to be as unhelpful and misleading as an Ioannidis study. Some states that have re-opened dining *require* reservations, so that would lead to very misleading data.
currently -75%, 26 Apr was the last day they were -100%
https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
I think a more accurate source of data is the credit card aggregates someone pointed out.
https://tracktherecovery.org/
![[Image: 1gZTju8_d.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/1gZTju8_d.jpg)
Not surprisingly, overall consumer spending in Georgia is about the same as the US overall, despite their aggressive reopening.
It’s sad because they’re taking so many risks yet there is no economic benefit. Consumer spending in Maine, Vermont and Connecticut have rebounded more than in Georgia, even without reopening gyms, hair salons and movie theatres.
RE: lex24 - magnus - 05-25-2020
(05-24-2020, 06:01 PM)needle Wrote:
Update, as of May 24:
Friday, April 24
Confirmed new cases: 804
7-day average: 747.3
NOTE: The Apr. 24 number changed by less than -1% compared to what was reported on the GA state website May 17
Friday, May 8
Confirmed new cases: 557
7-day average: 515.1
Note: The May 8 number changed by less than 10% compared to what was reported May 17.
+++I feel comfortable saying that based on these numbers--more on that later--GA was definitely showing a significant decline in covid-19 cases into early May.
Friday, May 15
Confirmed new cases: 796
7-day average: 618.1
NOTE: The May 15 number changed by about 260% compared to what was reported May 17.
Friday, May 22
Confirmed new cases: 255
7-day average: 475.9
NOTE As of May 24.
+++The data so far indicates a moderate increase in covid-19 cases in Georgia since the state's businesses began opening up, reversing a trend of declining cases.
ABOUT THESE NUMBERS: Georgia is among at least a few states to admit that antibody tests were intermingled with viral tests in state data, but it's unclear to me if this would meaningfully change the data I've presented in this post.
I believe positive antibody test results were excluded from the positive totals statewide (though I'm unsure of that); the concern as I understand it is that this skewed the positivity rate that was based on a denominator that included some antibody tests as well as viral tests.
https://apnews.com/1cb65951963252e7b4d9615f2e70d3b1
Updating the relative data that I posted last week:
If we compare this week's snapshot to last week's we may be able to pull out some trends.
This week we have:
2 days ago: 255/475.9
1 week ago: 796/618.1
2 weeks ago: 557/515.1
3 weeks ago: 724/681.9 (from graph)
4 weeks ago: 804/747.3
Last week we have:
2 days ago: 222/369.1
1 weeks ago: 507/502.7
2 weeks ago: 732/682.9 (from graph)
3 weeks ago: 809/746.6
Two weeks ago, we had (from OP):
2 days ago: 51/258.6
2 weeks ago: 797/739.4
2 days ago comparisons and 1 week ago comparisons are rising. 2 weeks ago have been heading down...but next week, expect the 2 weeks ago tally to turn back up.
So there was about 2 weeks of decline after the state reopened, and in just a week (those numbers are currently lower, but after next week's corrections, they'll likely be higher), they've bounced back to pre-opening levels already. Yikes.
RE: lex24 - burger - 05-25-2020
Georgia numbers in graph form:
![[Image: de5N2ll.png]](https://i.imgur.com/de5N2ll.png)
At best they've plateaued. If the antibody tests are being added to the case and testing numbers, things might be getting worse.
RE: lex24 - needle - 06-14-2020
Update, as of June 14:
Friday, April 24
Confirmed new cases: 789
7-day average: 737.7
Friday, May 8
Confirmed new cases: 588
7-day average: 525.6
+++To repeat, GA was definitely showing a significant decline in covid-19 cases into early May.
Friday, May 15
Confirmed new cases: 838
7-day average: 656.6
Friday, May 22
Confirmed new cases: 759
7-day average: 666.4
Friday, May 29
Confirmed new cases: 873
7-day average: 644.7
Re-opening Georgia coincided with a definite increase in covid-19 cases. While the short-term increase perhaps wasn't as much as some expected, it's hard to say why the numbers turned out the way they did.
RE: The Georgia experiment - BostonCard - 06-14-2020
On the other hand, weekly deaths have been slowly declining, from a peak of 293 deaths in the week of 4/20, down to 180 deaths last week. Even cases peaked at 5,076 six weeks ago though they have reached close to 5,000 several times since then.
Here's what the trajectory has looked like in Georgia:
![[Image: image.png]](https://www.evernote.com/l/ACyz4w08DxNKaoH4Ls-eRCO808NtTRi1VJ0B/image.png)
There is a slight upward trend since early May in cases and since late May in deaths, after both dropped slightly from mid-April. But the effect is slight, and probably consistent with an uptick in the R(t) from 0.9 to 1.1 or something like that.
BC
lex24 - lex24 - 06-14-2020
How bout hospitalizations? I’m continually frustrated by how difficult it becomes to determine if hospitalization rates are rising or falling. To me it’s a pretty important question. It’s particularly important in relationship to the percentage of hospital beds in any particular area. Again I keep coming back to the original discussion regarding shelter in place and much of it was centered on not overloading hospitals.
To me that number is more important than the number of cases – for the obvious reason that those do not address the severity of of the cases.
RE: lex24 - 2006alum - 06-14-2020
(06-14-2020, 04:32 PM)lex24 Wrote: How bout hospitalizations? I’m continually frustrated by how difficult it becomes to determine if hospitalization rates are rising or falling. To me it’s a pretty important question. It’s particularly important in relationship to the percentage of hospital beds in any particular area. Again I keep coming back to the original discussion regarding shelter in place and much of it was centered on not overloading hospitals.
To me that number is more important than the number of cases – for the obvious reason that those do not address the severity of of the cases.
Totally agree. It's insanely frustrating that most of the numbers that should be most important in guiding our policy choices (hospitalization rate, hospitalization utilization, % of recovered patients with long-term complications) are nearly entirely unavailable to the public. It was one thing to shut down in mid-March while we figured things out, but we're now almost three months later and we seem to have very little new data to work with apart from a few studies that seem to suggest masks + social distancing + outdoor activity mitigate transmission. Really?!?
RE: lex24 - 82lsju - 06-14-2020
(06-14-2020, 04:32 PM)lex24 Wrote: How bout hospitalizations? I’m continually frustrated by how difficult it becomes to determine if hospitalization rates are rising or falling. To me it’s a pretty important question. It’s particularly important in relationship to the percentage of hospital beds in any particular area. Again I keep coming back to the original discussion regarding shelter in place and much of it was centered on not overloading hospitals.
To me that number is more important than the number of cases – for the obvious reason that those do not address the severity of of the cases.
there is some data here by state
https://covidtracking.com/data
if you click on "our data" then "Data API" you can download a spreadsheet that has historical data by state
RE: lex24 - BostonCard - 06-14-2020
(06-14-2020, 04:57 PM)82lsju Wrote:(06-14-2020, 04:32 PM)lex24 Wrote: How bout hospitalizations? I’m continually frustrated by how difficult it becomes to determine if hospitalization rates are rising or falling. To me it’s a pretty important question. It’s particularly important in relationship to the percentage of hospital beds in any particular area. Again I keep coming back to the original discussion regarding shelter in place and much of it was centered on not overloading hospitals.
To me that number is more important than the number of cases – for the obvious reason that those do not address the severity of of the cases.
there is some data here by state
https://covidtracking.com/data
if you click on "our data" then "Data API" you can download a spreadsheet that has historical data by state
In Georgia, hospitalizations (hospitalizedCurrently) have only been available since mid-May, when the hospital census peaked at 1025 on May 18. It has declined since then, hitting a low of 783 on June 7, and rising to 829 most recently (June 14).
BC
RE: lex24 - Genuine Realist - 06-14-2020
(06-14-2020, 05:08 PM)BostonCard Wrote:These would seem to be manageable numbers. They certainly aren't the disaster the snarkier columnists predicted.(06-14-2020, 04:57 PM)82lsju Wrote:(06-14-2020, 04:32 PM)lex24 Wrote: How bout hospitalizations? I’m continually frustrated by how difficult it becomes to determine if hospitalization rates are rising or falling. To me it’s a pretty important question. It’s particularly important in relationship to the percentage of hospital beds in any particular area. Again I keep coming back to the original discussion regarding shelter in place and much of it was centered on not overloading hospitals.
To me that number is more important than the number of cases – for the obvious reason that those do not address the severity of of the cases.
there is some data here by state
https://covidtracking.com/data
if you click on "our data" then "Data API" you can download a spreadsheet that has historical data by state
In Georgia, hospitalizations (hospitalizedCurrently) have only been available since mid-May, when the hospital census peaked at 1025 on May 18. It has declined since then, hitting a low of 783 on June 7, and rising to 829 most recently (June 14).
BC
RE: lex24 - burger - 06-14-2020
(06-14-2020, 06:58 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: These would seem to be manageable numbers. They certainly aren't the disaster the snarkier columnists predicted.
I know this is a Georgia thread, but the focus on Gerogia is myopic. Cases are seriously spiking in Florida, Arizona, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas. Georgia doesn't look so bad, but a bunch of other states that opened up early look awful now.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1272162246399942656/photo/1[/tweet]
Unfortunately, there is probably no putting the genie back in the bottle now. I think we're in big trouble.
RE: The Georgia experiment - 2006alum - 06-14-2020
There are also some data points in the operations of recent elections that make me a tiny bit skeptical that the state of Georgia is working as hard as possible to ensure its citizens have access to accurate and complete data...
RE: The Georgia experiment - 82lsju - 06-14-2020
(06-14-2020, 07:17 PM)2006alum Wrote: There are also some data points in the operations of recent elections that make me a tiny bit skeptical that the state of Georgia is working as hard as possible to ensure its citizens have access to accurate and complete data...
a random data point, one of my classmates lives in a North Atlanta suburb, they applied for vote-my-mail ballots and the ballots never showed up, they went to vote at their local voting station and had to wait 3 hours to vote......
RE: lex24 - oregontim - 06-14-2020
(06-14-2020, 07:05 PM)burger Wrote: Unfortunately, there is probably no putting the genie back in the bottle now. I think we're in big trouble.
I don't dispute the Oregon numbers shown in that data, but I don't get why. We closed quickly and Portland — where all the new cases are — still hasn't even gone to phase 1 opening. Seems counter intuitive, unless it's either testing or (gulp) crowds in demonstrations.
RE: lex24 - Farm93 - 06-15-2020
(06-14-2020, 07:05 PM)burger Wrote: Unfortunately, there is probably no putting the genie back in the bottle now. I think we're in big trouble.I think as recently as the end of May one could believe that by late July COVID deaths would be near zero, and that by mid-August cases would be low enough that serious South Korea/New Zealand/Taiwan type tracing could be possible for new cases. And that would be key to keeping the fall/winter wave down or even eliminating it completely.
Now, it looks like the USA will have far too many cases throughout the summer to credibly control the start of a second wave later in the year.
It will continue to be a tough year.
RE: The Georgia experiment - Genuine Realist - 06-15-2020
(06-14-2020, 07:17 PM)2006alum Wrote: There are also some data points in the operations of recent elections that make me a tiny bit skeptical that the state of Georgia is working as hard as possible to ensure its citizens have access to accurate and complete data...The data would have really to jump over the moon to justify the snarkiness of some of the critiques.
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/noah-rothman/an-orgy-of-plague-death-deferred/
Rohman's proclamation of success, written a month ago, was premature. But the language of the critics is way, way over the top - the undeclared culture war that these pundits don't even acknowledge. (None has confessed even partial error.) The reason, of course, is that opening up does NOT mean the public loses every last vestige of common sense. A few do, but most are fully aware that there's a pretty dangerous virus out there and continue to practice some measure of caution and social distancing. So the cases may climb, but they don't skyrocket.
I suggested that in a post entitled 'Irreducible Minimums', that we may have squeezed all of the juice that can be squeezed out of lockdowns - that there is a point beyond which you don't get additional results without draconian enforcement, which you wouldn't do at the best of times, which these aren't.
My own thought is the time has come to open up completely, publicizing the need for social distancing, regulating those businesses that can be regulated (Walmart, Safeway, movie theaters, etc.) I think the public has got the message, to the extent it is going to.
RE: The Georgia experiment - burger - 06-15-2020
(06-15-2020, 07:53 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote:(06-14-2020, 07:17 PM)2006alum Wrote: There are also some data points in the operations of recent elections that make me a tiny bit skeptical that the state of Georgia is working as hard as possible to ensure its citizens have access to accurate and complete data...
The data would have really to jump over the moon to justify the snarkiness of some of the critiques.
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/noah-rothman/an-orgy-of-plague-death-deferred/
Rohman's proclamation of success, written a month ago, was premature. But the language of the critics is way, way over the top - the undeclared culture war that these pundits don't even acknowledge. (None has confessed even partial error.) The reason, of course, is that opening up does NOT mean the public loses every last vestige of common sense. A few do, but most are fully aware that there's a pretty dangerous virus out there and continue to practice some measure of caution and social distancing. So the cases may climb, but they don't skyrocket.
I suggested that in a post entitled 'Irreducible Minimums', that we may have squeezed all of the juice that can be squeezed out of lockdowns - that there is a point beyond which you don't get additional results without draconian enforcement, which you wouldn't do at the best of times, which these aren't.
My own thought is the time has come to open up completely, publicizing the need for social distancing, regulating those businesses that can be regulated (Walmart, Safeway, movie theaters, etc.) I think the public has got the message, to the extent it is going to.
The language of the critics is only over the top if you have your head in the sand and ignore all the states where they have reopened and cases are spiking. Calling for a full reopening when several states are starting to look like New York City in March is a terrible, ignorant idea.