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RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - DC 86 - 05-04-2022
(05-04-2022, 09:29 PM)msqueri Wrote: While Druckenmiller can maybe never be topped for me as a Niner fan and also a Niner-obsessive 7th/8th grader when he played for us, Paxton Lynch gives me deja vu. I watched as much of his USFL debut as I could stomach a few weeks ago because I was curious to see Cameron Scarlett in action and - against USFL competition! - former first round pick Lynch looked like Jack West. So, so bad.
And the Broncos traded up to draft Lynch.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Goose - 05-04-2022
(05-04-2022, 09:29 PM)msqueri Wrote: While Druckenmiller can maybe never be topped for me as a Niner fan and also a Niner-obsessive 7th/8th grader when he played for us, Paxton Lynch gives me deja vu. I watched as much of his USFL debut as I could stomach a few weeks ago because I was curious to see Cameron Scarlett in action and - against USFL competition! - former first round pick Lynch looked like Jack West. So, so bad.So are you saying there is hope for West yet? He is as good as a (former) first-round draft pick. Who knew?
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - DC 86 - 05-04-2022
In the common draft era, teams have traded up into the first five picks 11 times to draft a quarterback:
Steve Bartkowski (1) - two Pro Bowls.
Jeff George (1) - traded after four seasons, no Pro Bowls.
Ryan Leaf (2) - released after two seasons, no Pro Bowls.
Michael Vick (1) - three Pro Bowls (twice top-4 MVP) before career interrupted by legal issues.
Mark Sanchez (5) - released after four seasons, no Pro Bowls.
Robert Griffin (2) - released after three seasons, one Pro Bowl.
Carson Wentz (2) - traded after five seasons, one Pro Bowl.
Jared Goff (1) - traded after five seasons, two Pro Bowls.
Mitchell Trubisky (2) - released after four seasons, one Pro Bowl.
Sam Darnold (3) - traded after three seasons, no Pro Bowls.
Trey Lance (3) - tbd
So eleven times NFL front offices felt so confident in their evaluation that they traded significant assets to move up and draft "their guy" at the most important position. Too early to tell on Lance, of course. Bartkowski and Vick were both drafted first overall and had very good careers, though well short of the Hall of Fame and without reaching the Super Bowl.
But of the other ten, eight were traded or released within five years by the team that drafted them, including the last six prior to Lance. There's no need to elaborate on the quarterbacks available if teams had not traded up and simply drafted at their original position, but in retrospect it's clear teams didn't have any special insight that justified trading assets in order to move up into the top five for a particular player. Lance may ultimately outshine all the others on this list, but I will ascribe that to good fortune, not to the front office having great foresight, given the dismal history of aggressive trades into the top five of the draft for specific quarterbacks.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Giants - 05-04-2022
Fair enough, msqueri….
Upon a rereading of your comments re: first selections, I’ll withdraw my observation re: Elway/Manning.
The only thing I would add is that, yes, I believe Lynch/Shanahan had the smoke machine on overdrive re: Jones. I do think that Lance was their guy as soon as they had a chance to complete their due diligence regarding him. Because they were third in the batting order, I think they might have been concerned about the Jets (despite NY’s public love affair with Wilson).
Lastly, no harm, no foul. Quite frankly, I have reconsidered long held opinions on a number of topics due to thoughtful responses posted here. This site is the best for intelligent repartee about Stanford athletics and our local pro teams.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 05-05-2022
[tweet]https://twitter.com/MlFootballStats/status/1522224153037873153[/tweet]
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - msqueri - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 08:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: [tweet]https://twitter.com/MlFootballStats/status/1522224153037873153[/tweet]
Passer rating isn't a good stat, and it's a terrible stat for a player in an offense/system with the advantages the Niners provide. Jimmy G had a higher passer rating last year than Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Nobody should think Jimmy was better than those two. Total QBR is a much better stat. In games with 15+ attempts Lance had QBRs of 31.4, 25.9, and 40.6 and his season QBR was 33.4. If he qualified that would have been 29th of 32 NFL QBs. Jimmy, on a much bigger sample, was 13th.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 11:17 AM)msqueri Wrote:(05-05-2022, 08:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: [tweet]https://twitter.com/MlFootballStats/status/1522224153037873153[/tweet]
Passer rating isn't a good stat, and it's a terrible stat for a player in an offense/system with the advantages the Niners provide. Jimmy G had a higher passer rating last year than Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Nobody should think Jimmy was better than those two. Total QBR is a much better stat. In games with 15+ attempts Lance had QBRs of 31.4, 25.9, and 40.6 and his season QBR was 33.4. If he qualified that would have been 29th of 32 NFL QBs. Jimmy, on a much bigger sample, was 13th.
And Lance was a rookie, youngest NFL player in 2021, with the least experience of any rookie QB. He will absolutely be better in year 2 than year 1, and likely better in year 3 than 2. The question is how much better, and will it turn out to have been worth what was given up to get him. Based on what we have seen so far, and his background, no credible argument can be made that he wasn't worth it. And I would argue there are more reasons to believe he will be than won't, they are:
1. The Niners are ready to part with Garoppolo.
2. Lance was much, much better in the 2nd half of his 2nd start than the first half of his first start.
3. Positive things Niners players have said about Lance and the fact no disparaging things have been leaked about him.
4. The way he has handled himself and been a professional with no attitude or drama.
All he has to be is a slightly better than Garoppolo for the trade to have been worth it because getting QBs even that good is exceptionally difficult.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - DC 86 - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 12:50 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(05-05-2022, 11:17 AM)msqueri Wrote:(05-05-2022, 08:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: [tweet]https://twitter.com/MlFootballStats/status/1522224153037873153[/tweet]
Passer rating isn't a good stat, and it's a terrible stat for a player in an offense/system with the advantages the Niners provide. Jimmy G had a higher passer rating last year than Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Nobody should think Jimmy was better than those two. Total QBR is a much better stat. In games with 15+ attempts Lance had QBRs of 31.4, 25.9, and 40.6 and his season QBR was 33.4. If he qualified that would have been 29th of 32 NFL QBs. Jimmy, on a much bigger sample, was 13th.
And Lance was a rookie, youngest NFL player in 2021, with the least experience of any rookie QB. He will absolutely be better in year 2 than year 1, and likely better in year 3 than 2. The question is how much better, and will it turn out to have been worth what was given up to get him. Based on what we have seen so far, and his background, no credible argument can be made that he wasn't worth it. And I would argue there are more reasons to believe he will be than won't, they are:
1. The Niners are ready to part with Garoppolo.
2. Lance was much, much better in the 2nd half of his 2nd start than the first half of his first start.
3. Positive things Niners players have said about Lance and the fact no disparaging things have been leaked about him.
4. The way he has handled himself and been a professional with no attitude or drama.
All he has to be is a slightly better than Garoppolo for the trade to have been worth it because getting QBs even that good is exceptionally difficult.
That's not the right way to frame the question because there were other quarterbacks available who didn't cost the substantial draft capital that the 49ers expended in moving up to #3.
Of course a QB on a rookie contract is extremely valuable even if he plays at the Garoppolo level. The question to be answered is whether Lance proves to be substantially better than the quarterbacks drafted later in the draft, not whether he proves better than JG.
All of the plaudits that you cited also apply to Justin Fields and Mac Jones, for example. Given Lance's inexperience he may improve and ultimately be a far better QB than those guys. But the contrary is just as (or more) likely. He only started one season in college and never played against an FBS opponent. He only threw 71 passes last season. So we really have no idea.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - msqueri - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 12:50 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(05-05-2022, 11:17 AM)msqueri Wrote:(05-05-2022, 08:54 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: [tweet]https://twitter.com/MlFootballStats/status/1522224153037873153[/tweet]
Passer rating isn't a good stat, and it's a terrible stat for a player in an offense/system with the advantages the Niners provide. Jimmy G had a higher passer rating last year than Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Nobody should think Jimmy was better than those two. Total QBR is a much better stat. In games with 15+ attempts Lance had QBRs of 31.4, 25.9, and 40.6 and his season QBR was 33.4. If he qualified that would have been 29th of 32 NFL QBs. Jimmy, on a much bigger sample, was 13th.
And Lance was a rookie, youngest NFL player in 2021, with the least experience of any rookie QB. He will absolutely be better in year 2 than year 1, and likely better in year 3 than 2. The question is how much better, and will it turn out to have been worth what was given up to get him. Based on what we have seen so far, and his background, no credible argument can be made that he wasn't worth it. And I would argue there are more reasons to believe he will be than won't, they are:
1. The Niners are ready to part with Garoppolo.
2. Lance was much, much better in the 2nd half of his 2nd start than the first half of his first start.
3. Positive things Niners players have said about Lance and the fact no disparaging things have been leaked about him.
4. The way he has handled himself and been a professional with no attitude or drama.
All he has to be is a slightly better than Garoppolo for the trade to have been worth it because getting QBs even that good is exceptionally difficult.
I think DC 86 and I have both made some very "credible" arguments but to each his own. I co-sign his response to you.
I find your last sentence a bit more compelling than DC 86 does. I do question whether this particular trade is the most prudent way to get a QB slightly better than Garoppolo, but I do share your sense that getting a marginal improvement over Garoppolo would be massively valuable. The question is whether Lance gets there. I certainly hope so. I think the track record with picks like him is not super encouraging, but I also think he has an extremely enviable situation very much unlike the situation essentially any #3 pick has ever had. He has the coach and supporting cast to make him look good, if a #3 pick ever did. I certainly don't rule it out.
While DC 86 and I have made our point clear, for the sake of argument let's operate with the standard you posit of Lance being perceptibly better than Garoppolo. Just for the sake of some objectivity/discipline in evaluating Lance going forward, Garoppolo's Total QBR rankings in his two qualifying years were #12 and #13. I'd want Lance to hopefully be a top 10 QB, which is really pretty elite when you think about who those ten are. However, it's only fair to Lance to also note that Garoppolo only had two qualifying years. Availability (health) was a major problem for him. If Lance could be a top 12/13 QB consistently but actually play the seasons out unlike his predecessor, that's worth quite a bit of draft capital (though the question would remain of whether it's better than Mac Jones or Davis Mills or others we could have gotten much cheaper).
To be colloquial about it, the standard you are arguing for of slightly better than Garoppolo is basically that Lance play on the level of a Dak Prescott/Derek Carr/Joe Burrow for years on end. I think that's a lot easier said than done and would bet against it. But certainly possible.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 01:09 PM)DC 86 Wrote: All of the plaudits that you cited also apply to Justin Fields and Mac Jones, for example. Given Lance's inexperience he may improve and ultimately be a far better QB than those guys. But the contrary is just as (or more) likely. He only started one season in college and never played against an FBS opponent. He only threw 71 passes last season. So we really have no idea.
#1 Lawrence
#2 Wilson
#3 Lance
#11 Fields
#15 Jones
The spots they were drafted in 2021. To get anyone other than Jones the Niners had to trade up. They would have had to give up at least a '22 first round pick to move up one spot to get Fields, because the Bears gave up that pick plus others to get him at #11 when Niners were drafting #12. But who knows, maybe the Patriots would have moved up to draft Jones ahead of Niners and left them skunked out of all the top QB prospects if they didn't make a trade. By doing what they did, they ensured getting one of 3/5 of the top prospects. Kyle Shanahan basically said the reason they moved up as high as they could was to have a choice so it couldn't be made for them, and they got one.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - DC 86 - 05-05-2022
Just to be clear, I understand that the greatest source for generating surplus value is drafting a QB who becomes a competent starter while on a rookie contract. Average starting QBs earn $25 mm+ so the delta to the rookie wage scale can be invested in other areas for a few years. So I am completely in favor of taking a chance at drafting a QB and even moving up in the draft if necessary.
But the ultimate grade on this transaction depends on how Lance performs relative to Jones (who probably could have been drafted without moving up) or Fields (who could have been drafted with far less cost to move up), not whether Lance eclipses Garoppolo. In fact, even if Lance performs slightly worse than Garoppolo the salary delta applied to other positions makes it a win to have drafted him.
But historically front offices don't seem to have proven insight into quarterback evaluation, as demonstrated by the track record of teams moving up into the top five of the draft. That's the salient point, that unless the 49er front office is exceptional at QB evaluation it's a high bar to justify trading significant assets in order to draft Lance instead of Fields or Jones.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 02:02 PM)DC 86 Wrote: unless the 49er front office is exceptional at QB evaluation it's a high bar to justify trading significant assets in order to draft Lance instead of Fields or Jones.
But they weren't guaranteed to get ANY top QB prospect if they didn't trade valuable draft capital. The Bears did trade up to get Fields. The Patriots very well might have tried to get Jones ahead of the Niners had they not moved up to #3.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Goose - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 01:47 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Kyle Shanahan basically said the reason they moved up as high as they could was to have a choice so it couldn't be made for them, and they got one.Kind of hard to argue with that. While one might not agree with the choice, it seems prudent to at least have a choice. If the niners stood pat, they risked little or no choice.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - msqueri - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 02:26 PM)Goose Wrote:(05-05-2022, 01:47 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Kyle Shanahan basically said the reason they moved up as high as they could was to have a choice so it couldn't be made for them, and they got one.Kind of hard to argue with that. While one might not agree with the choice, it seems prudent to at least have a choice. If the niners stood pat, they risked little or no choice.
Little or no choice among the 2021 draft's top few QB options, but that assumes that they HAD to pick one of the top few 2021 QB options. Assuming that/imagining only a path forward in which they got one of those top few QBs was a blinked, desperate mentality. Put another way, they had a choice whether to get the QB of the future at the top of the draft and they chose to. But they had plenty of other choices available.
1. Draft whoever was remaining at #12, which was hardly a bad option. Mac Jones was a good prospect on paper who was plausibly discussed to go earlier and, with the benefit of hindsight now, had a really good rookie year.
2. Draft a promising QB in the second or third round, of which there were numerous options. Davis Mills was one that was obvious to many of us as an extremely high ceiling option and, with the benefit of hindsight now, had a solid rookie year.
3. Trade up but not so far up as #3. It was a choice to want to be able to choose between three of the top five rather than just two or to get a decent consolation prize.
4. Trade for a proven NFL QB.
5. Keep Jimmy G as the QB through 2022 and wait for another option to trade or draft for a QB. Acting like the 2021 draft was a once in a lifetime opportunity was itself a desperate move considering we already had a QB1 signed for multiple more seasons playing at a level better than a young first round QB could be expected to play in his first two years. Mock drafts are now forecasting the 2023 draft and it looks possible that QB class will be very strong as well. It wasn't a now or never thing. Patience can pay off. If the Niners passed on a QB at #12 in 2021 they could have gotten Micah Parsons, which probably would have improved near-term Super Bowl odds more than any of these non-Lawrence QB options.
There were choices. The Niners made one, not the only one.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - DC 86 - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 02:26 PM)Goose Wrote:(05-05-2022, 01:47 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Kyle Shanahan basically said the reason they moved up as high as they could was to have a choice so it couldn't be made for them, and they got one.Kind of hard to argue with that. While one might not agree with the choice, it seems prudent to at least have a choice. If the niners stood pat, they risked little or no choice.
This is the point that I'm making. NFL front offices haven't demonstrated that having a choice is necessarily better than not having a choice, yet moving up in order to make a choice is costly. The last six times (prior to Lance's selection) that a team traded to move into the top five to draft a QB they ended up trading the QB relatively early.
Let's look at this example, which is the most recent case (excluding Lance): 2018. The Jets wanted to "have a choice" so they traded three second round picks (including two high seconds, #34 and #37) to move up from #6 to #3. They got their guy: Sam Darnold. If they stood pat at #6 (and presumably had "the choice made for them") they draft Josh Allen.
The second most recent case was in 2017. The Bears wanted to "have a choice" so they traded three picks in order to move up to #2 and make sure to get their guy: Mitchell Trubisky. If they has stood pat and "had the choice made for them" presumably they would have been stuck with the next QB that came off the board: Patrick Mahomes.
We could repeat this exercise for all the "move ups" that I documented in a previous post, but the point is that paying to have a choice is only justifiable if you demonstrate that your evaluation ability is substantially better than not having a choice and simply picking whoever falls to you. If you believe that SF has extraordinary QB/draft evaluation abilities then trading multiple first round picks to make sure you get Lance makes sense. Otherwise the logical approach is to draft whichever of the three QBs (Lance, Fields, Jones) falls to you and hope for the best, while using those very valuable non-traded assets to address other needs. History indicates that the latter approach yields better results.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Goose - 05-05-2022
(05-05-2022, 02:49 PM)msqueri Wrote: Little or no choice among the 2021 draft's top few QB options, but that assumes that they HAD to pick one of the top few 2021 QB options. Assuming that/imagining only a path forward in which they got one of those top few QBs was a blinked, desperate mentality. Put another way, they had a choice whether to get the QB of the future at the top of the draft and they chose to. But they had plenty of other choices available.You are for sure correct that there were other paths available. #5 above probably isn't one of them however. Jimmy G will make too much money in 2022 to keep around. They need the cap space. That is why the consensus is that he will be released if he is not traded. Given that, #4 is also problematic because a great veteran QB probably also makes more than they can afford cap-wise. There also may have been nobody out there they liked. They simply needed a cheap but great QB on a rookie contract for a few years. Undoubtedly they considered the other three options and decided to go with the one that would deliver them Lance. Let's just hope it "works" for them. I think the draft is a very random instrument. That said, you have to make your "best possible decision", knowing full well it isn't a lock.
1. Draft whoever was remaining at #12, which was hardly a bad option. Mac Jones was a good prospect on paper who was plausibly discussed to go earlier and, with the benefit of hindsight now, had a really good rookie year.
2. Draft a promising QB in the second or third round, of which there were numerous options. Davis Mills was one that was obvious to many of us as an extremely high ceiling option and, with the benefit of hindsight now, had a solid rookie year.
3. Trade up but not so far up as #3. It was a choice to want to be able to choose between three of the top five rather than just two or to get a decent consolation prize.
4. Trade for a proven NFL QB.
5. Keep Jimmy G as the QB through 2022 and wait for another option to trade or draft for a QB. Acting like the 2021 draft was a once in a lifetime opportunity was itself a desperate move considering we already had a QB1 signed for multiple more seasons playing at a level better than a young first round QB could be expected to play in his first two years. Mock drafts are now forecasting the 2023 draft and it looks possible that QB class will be very strong as well. It wasn't a now or never thing. Patience can pay off. If the Niners passed on a QB at #12 in 2021 they could have gotten Micah Parsons, which probably would have improved near-term Super Bowl odds more than any of these non-Lawrence QB options.
There were choices. The Niners made one, not the only one.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - lex24 - 05-06-2022
We will see, won’t we? Go back to when QBs were being discussed. Jones was thought to be by far the weakest of the first rounders. Concern in part for what I call the Leinert Question”. And that is- was the supporting cast so good that it makes the QB look so much better than he is? Plus lack of mobility.
They could have waited and probably got Jones. Probably. Fields would have involved making some move up. Probably not costing near as much as moving to #3.
One thing is certain - Lynch and Shanahan determined Garrapolo is not the answer. And the complete lack of interest shown by the rest of the league confirms that. Obviously the injury hurt a bit. As did Brady coming back and Wilson getting traded. But there still are teams looking for QB’s. There always are. Fact is, he is not particularly highly regarded.
I still think he will be released. I just can’t see them having another year with both JG and Lance on the roster.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - msqueri - 05-06-2022
(05-06-2022, 08:39 AM)lex24 Wrote: We will see, won’t we? Go back to when QBs were being discussed. Jones was thought to be by far the weakest of the first rounders. Concern in part for what I call the Leinert Question”. And that is- was the supporting cast so good that it makes the QB look so much better than he is? Plus lack of mobility.
They could have waited and probably got Jones. Probably. Fields would have involved making some move up. Probably not costing near as much as moving to #3.
One thing is certain - Lynch and Shanahan determined Garrapolo is not the answer. And the complete lack of interest shown by the rest of the league confirms that. Obviously the injury hurt a bit. As did Brady coming back and Wilson getting traded. But there still are teams looking for QB’s. There always are. Fact is, he is not particularly highly regarded.
I still think he will be released. I just can’t see them having another year with both JG and Lance on the roster.
Proponents of the Leinart Question have had a doozy of a few years. At least so far in the NFL, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Derek Carr (having Devante Adams at a Group of Five school qualifies I think), Kyler Murray, Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa have not been overrated based on their supporting casts (that is, they don't look bad for their draft slots). We'll see if Justin Fields continues to make the Leinart Question look silly. The building body of evidence is that, because QB is by far the most important and difficult position, when a QB dominates college competition they deserve a lot of the credit. Full stop. Mac Jones and Jalen Hurts deserve a lot more of the credit than people want to give them.
I suspect that the revealed preferences of the league will continue to corroborate a move away from the Leinart Question. I suspect teams aren't going to shy away from Bryce Young and CJ Stroud because of a worry that they're overrated based on their supporting casts.
A theory on why the Leinart Question is a dumber question to ask in 2022 than it was in 2006: there has been such a convergence of top skill position talent at a very few programs (Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU, Ohio State) that the smart take is that those schools have the best QBs AND the best WRs. That wasn't the case in 2006. But when Bryce Young is the top recruit in the country and then gets to play with an unending stream of NFL super studs and dominates, you don't need to overthink who deserves the credit. Both QB and WRs are sublime.
I think the lack of interest in Jimmy G has a fair amount to do with the current injury as well as the fact that one of the worst QB situations in the league is the Niners' rival and obviously that trade isn't happening. But I do think that his very poor track record staying healthy plays a big part here too. He can't be relied on.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Goose - 05-06-2022
(05-06-2022, 08:39 AM)lex24 Wrote: I still think he will be released. I just can’t see them having another year with both JG and Lance on the roster.There are 26.9 million reasons he will be released if not traded. His cap hit will be about 8.9 million if he is released. The niners need that cap room. I think the best outcome for the team would be his "retirement". Probably not going to happen, but who knows? He has all the money he needs, and why take the punishment?
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - msqueri - 05-06-2022
(05-06-2022, 09:00 AM)Goose Wrote:(05-06-2022, 08:39 AM)lex24 Wrote: I still think he will be released. I just can’t see them having another year with both JG and Lance on the roster.There are 26.9 million reasons he will be released if not traded. His cap hit will be about 8.9 million if he is released. The niners need that cap room. I think the best outcome for the team would be his "retirement". Probably not going to happen, but who knows? He has all the money he needs, and why take the punishment?
Seems like Panthers, Seahawks, and Texans are the remaining options. Panthers drafted Corral but Jimmy G, unless completely damaged goods, is so much better than Darnold that it's plausible. Seahawks are in the division but I guess both teams could theoretically get desperate (or he could be released and go to Seattle). It would seem strange for the Texans to get a non-franchise QB who wouldn't be the future but very plausibly could win more games than Mills, thus hurting draft positioning without actually being the future or seeing if Mills can be, but I do see them continue to be mentioned.
The other element here is there's kind of a game of musical chairs dynamic. Garoppolo, Mayfield, and Foles all need a home and it's not clear, at least to me, that all three of the aforementioned teams will be buyers. Yet those first two seem far too good to back up so we'll see what happens.