LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS

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RE: lex24 - Papa John - 12-07-2025

(12-07-2025, 09:32 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(12-07-2025, 05:41 PM)lex24 Wrote: James Madison? Tulane? What a joke.

They still can’t get it right. The rationale for taking Miami, a team that couldn’t win a conference that was so weak that its Champion didn’t get in over a team that rattled off 10 straight, most of them blow outs, is absurd. It was a week one game.

Take the best 4 Conference champs. Next 8 picked by the computer. If there is no Power 5 school. Oh,well., tough.

The 12 best teams should be in.

They will never get it "right" because there is no right. In fact, I think not getting it "right" is a feature, not a bug, as it allows for entertaining blather on sports radio.

It used to be that in order to win a national title, you had to win week in and week out. You could *maybe* afford one loss over the course of the season (at least if you were in the SEC), but you pretty much had to have a near spotless record, and a loss meant a very real possibility that you might miss out to another 1-loss team with a slightly better record. Thus, every game mattered, and since most teams couldn't sniff the playoffs, they could at least entertain themselves with a nice bowl someplace warm at the end of the year.

Now, you have 12 teams (and if the Big Ten gets its way, you will have many more). The bottom half have no business competing for a national title. DIdn't win your conference? Who cares. Now teams feel entitled to be in the playoffs even though they lost *two* games early in the season because, apparently, early season game don't count as much as late season thrashings of *checks notes* Syracuse and Stanford, teams a combined 7-17. The bottom line is the Irish lost two games, and ran rufshot over the rest of the schedule because the toughest team on there was 8-4 Pitt and 9-3 USC. BYU at 11-2, Vanderbilt at 10-2 also got left out. I mean, everything is going to be arbitrary (and even if you leave it up to a computer, it is arbitrary what criteria go into the score you use). I have no problem with Miami being selected and Notre Dame being left out; after all, Miami beat Notre Dame.

BC

Notre Dame was ranked above Miami for every single CFP poll except the final one:
Week 10: ND 10th, Miami 18th
Week 11: ND 9th, Miami 15th
Week 12: ND 9th, Miami 13th
Week 13: ND 9th, Miami 12th
Week 14: ND 10th (dropped a spot after beating Stanford), Miami 12th
Week 15: Miami 10th, ND 11th

Neither team played a game between the week 14 and 15 rankings. So why drop ND one spot and move up Miami two spots?

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - magnus - 12-08-2025

The committee said it was because BYU lost, which dropped them below Miami and moved Miami right behind ND. Which apparently triggered their head to head matchup tiebreaker (they didn't consider it earlier in the season because I guess 2 spots in the standings is too far away)

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - PalmTree - 12-08-2025

(12-08-2025, 12:55 AM)magnus Wrote: The committee said it was because BYU lost, which dropped them below Miami and moved Miami right behind ND. Which apparently triggered their head to head matchup tiebreaker (they didn't consider it earlier in the season because I guess 2 spots in the standings is too far away)

So in a perfect world, or if there truly were football gods - the Domers and Cougars would have agreed to play in a bowl game. Even better, the LSJUMB would be the featured half time entertainment - uncensored too - wouldn't that be a hoot?

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - Mick - 12-08-2025

(12-07-2025, 09:30 PM)chrisk Wrote:
(12-07-2025, 06:28 PM)PalmTree Wrote:
(12-07-2025, 06:14 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: Although I must say that “Pop Tarts Bowl” doesn’t exactly sound like a heavenly ending to a season.

Oh c'mon - who wouldn't want swag bags <full> of Pop Tarts?!?!?

The PopTarts bowl has a storied 35-year history, beginning in 1990 as the Blockbuster Bowl in Miami.
Stanford beat Penn State in the 3rd edition of the bowl.

Blockbuster Bowl (1990–1993)
Carquest Bowl (1994–1997)
MicronPC Bowl (1998)
MicronPC.com Bowl (1999–2000)
Visit Florida Tangerine Bowl (2001)
Mazda Tangerine Bowl (2002–2003)
Champs Sports Bowl (2004–2011)
Russell Athletic Bowl (2012–2016)
Camping World Bowl (2017–2019)
Cheez-It Bowl (2020–2022)[a]

Funny...Notre Dame had a signatory relationship with this Bowl, and played in it twice, the last time ranked #14. Now #9 in the AP ranking, they won't go to a bowl game because les enfants terribles are pouting that they are not in the CFP. Boo Hoo.

Does anyone know which teams are ranked below Stanford (#81 on ESPN index) that are playing in FBS bowl games? Appalachian State, Delaware, Louisiana, Georgia Southern, Missouri State, Hawaii, Western Kentucky, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, Mississippi State, Jacksonville State, Troy, Central Michigan, FIU, Southern Miss, Kennesaw State, Fresno State, Army, Western Michigan and Miami (OH).

Just those 20? I feel like I missed a few.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

College Football Bowl Schedule | 2025 | FBSchedules.com

ca245 - ca245 - 12-08-2025

If ND were to give up its cherished “independent“ status and joined the ACC in football as it does in other sports, it would likely have made the ACC championship game and, assuming it wins that game, qualified for the CFP. ND can’t have it both ways. So I don’t feel sorry for ND.

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - 82lsju - 12-08-2025

maybe the CFP just needs more teams like some of the other playoffs

CFP 12 of ~120 teams make the playoff (~10%)
March Madness 68 of ~320 teams make the playoff (~20%)
NFL 14 of 32 teams make the playoffs (44%)
NBA 16 (or 20 if you count the play-in games) make the playoffs 53% (or 67%)
MLB 12 of 30 teams make the playoffs (40%)

or fewer teams in the CFP playoff pool (hello two super conferences with 40-65 teams in divisions and a 16 team playoff, so maybe eight divisions of eight teams who all play each other (plus five other games against teams in other divisions) and the top two from each division advance to the playoffs)

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - magnus - 12-08-2025

(12-08-2025, 01:26 AM)PalmTree Wrote:
(12-08-2025, 12:55 AM)magnus Wrote: The committee said it was because BYU lost, which dropped them below Miami and moved Miami right behind ND. Which apparently triggered their head to head matchup tiebreaker (they didn't consider it earlier in the season because I guess 2 spots in the standings is too far away)

So in a perfect world, or if there truly were football gods - the Domers and Cougars would have agreed to play in a bowl game. Even better, the LSJUMB would be the featured half time entertainment - uncensored too - wouldn't that be a hoot?

ND's Poptart opponent would have been BYU.

BTW, the captains voted to not play because they didn't want to show up with a subpar team as many of their best players would be opting out.

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - Papa John - 12-08-2025

(12-08-2025, 12:55 AM)magnus Wrote: The committee said it was because BYU lost, which dropped them below Miami and moved Miami right behind ND. Which apparently triggered their head to head matchup tiebreaker (they didn't consider it earlier in the season because I guess 2 spots in the standings is too far away)

Thank you. You are correct of course, Magnus, but I didn't ask the question properly. I meant to include the fact that ND dropped to #10 in Week 14 after beating Stanford by 29 (and Stanford scored a garbage-time TD). They dropped because Alabama moved from #10 to #9 after beating Auburn by 7. And then on top of that, Alabama stayed at #9 after being curb-stomped by Georgia in the SEC championship game.

If ND had stayed at #9 they would have been in the CFP. My understanding is that it was only by dropping ND to #10 in Week 14 that the head-to-head could have come into play that would keep ND out of the CFP.

I'm not saying that ND is necessarily more deserving than Alabama or Miami. But the process of getting to that conclusion was, IMO, very illogical.

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - jacket3ree - 12-08-2025

The problem is a committee trying to justify logic when there wasn't any. It would be interesting to listen to the deliberations as opposed to the word salad they barfed out for the press and fans. Some song and dance about how BYU performed and now that Miami and Notre Dame are right next to each other, we can look at that head to head result. Right, now that BYU lost? So, BYU is punished for looking like **** in its conference championship game but we can't punish Alabama, which also looked like **** in its conference championship game because, why exactly? Teams spelled "Alabama" play by a different set of rules. So a team that lost three times including to FSU gets in over Notre Dame. That's who Irish fans should be mad about, not Miami or JMU.

You could play it off among Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas Tech and that would be a clear and convincing national champion. Oregon has already lost to Indiana but they deserve a second chance? Heck, why does Ohio State get a second crack at Indiana? Because this is professional football and how professional football works. Except this committee BS.

This solution is so easy. Reorganize college pro football into manageable conferences by geography and history and while some won't like their conference, too bad. Join ND on the sideline if you feel that way. Round robin play and conference champions and only champions go to the playoff. Bowls might even survive because there would be plenty of good teams that don't make the playoff.

More likely is even larger FOMO conferences and a 24- or 32-team playoff. Bowls are on their last leg and whatever. I'll watch playoff games and if PopTarts wants to sponsor a playoff game, more power to them. BYU will play Tech in an 'if only x, y, and z had happened this would have been a playoff matchup' game that should be interesting as long as there are enough coaches and players willing to do it. There might be three or four of those outside the CFP and even the CFP will have Oklahoma-Alabama (there's your joke) and Oregon dismantling JMU with a bunch of lame duck <rim shot> coaches on both sides. We don't need any of this.

I get that networks are desperate for content and college football provides content. As mentioned, with every bowl eligible team (6-6) accounted for and a couple of opt-outs there, the Birmingham Bowl is looking to 5-7 teams to play Georgia Southern. Teams with losing records saying no include FSU, Auburn, UCF, Baylor, Kansas, Rutgers, and Temple. Good for them. Maybe the Birmingham Bowl should call it a run and refund any tickets purchased. I mean yeehaw for Rice getting to 6-7 if they beat Texas State, but that is sort of embarrassing.

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - martyup - 12-08-2025

Would Stanford take a bowl game if offered? Should they?

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - fullmetal - 12-08-2025

Absolutely. More practice time, chance for alumni/fans to travel and congregate, chance for players' families to gather and be supported.

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - BostonCard - 12-08-2025

Good insight from the WSJ (and a touch of snark):

https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/notre-dame-college-football-playoff-89a28b0d?st=VjxgVf&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Quote:It’s college football. If it didn’t make people mad, it would be pizza.

That being said, if you are going to make someone mad, it might as well be the Domers (or Trojans). To be fair, I agree that the weekly playoff show is a traveshamockery, but that was always going to be the case. And if the final playoff were announced without weekly reveals before that, someone would complain about the lack of transparency. People always want a reason to be mad.

Quote:Frustration is a feature, not a bug. Teams have been getting robbed as long as we’ve been doing this; rage long precedes the 12-team format. Auburn had an undefeated team in 2004 that got squeezed out of the championship game. How about Florida State just a couple of years ago? They’re still seething in Tallahassee about that one.

Folks, I’m so old, I was alive last week when BYU fans were annoyed in advance of their conference championship, worried that the committee was protecting Notre Dame and were going to squeeze the Cougars out. I’m also very aware that I could get a hearty case from a fan of the Cougars, the Vanderbilt Commodores, the Utah Utes or even the Texas Longhorns.

And yes, it’s surely true that this again shows the hazard of Notre Dame’s independence, the lack of a conference structure (and pathway) to give their process some clarity. If Notre Dame played in, say, the ACC, this whole drama might have been avoided.

In other news, apparently Notre Dame is pissed that the ACC was lobbying for its own member to make the playoffs and not Notre Dame. L-O-friggin-L.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2025/12/08/notre-dame-pete-bevacqua-acc-relationship-permanent-damage-college-football-playoff-cfp-acc-network/87670481007/

Quote:According to Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, the blatant politicking done by the conference against the Fighting Irish — including repeated ACC Network airings of Miami's Week 1 win over Notre Dame and turning its social media accounts into a Miami highlight reel during the final week of the regular season, not to mention graphics comparing resumes — the actions of the ACC are going to have a longstanding effect.

Pretty rich for a team that, time and again, has turned down an opportunity to join a conference, is now complaining that a conference that wanted them was politicking on behalf of a conference member. Sorry to the cake-eater-havers in South Bend, but if you want a conference behind you making the case for you to be in the playoffs, there’s an easy solution.

Anyway, fair or not, someone was going to be screwed and I can’t say that I am not kinda happy that it was the Domers.

BC

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - 82lsju - 12-08-2025

(12-08-2025, 03:06 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Absolutely. More practice time, chance for alumni/fans to travel and congregate, chance for players' families to gather and be supported.

well given the # of tickets we appears to sell for bowl games other than the Rose, Orange, and Fiesta bowl I'm not sure we'd have a large number of alumni/fans congregating.

and I wonder how many players family's prefer to be in places Mobile or Boise than at home with their family over the holidays

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - fullmetal - 12-08-2025

Football families will tend to go see their college athlete sons playing at bowl games. I doubt there's a set of parents who wouldn't see their kid play a college bowl game.

Anyway, I'd make an effort to go if it worked out. The real problem this year is that airfare has gone up a lot. I'm having to book tickets almost a month-plus in advance to get reasonable fares. Used to be two weeks back in the day...then three weeks. And this year, four. With bowl games being announced so close to the games, you're really counting on driving-distance fans to fill seats.

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - 82lsju - 12-08-2025

(12-08-2025, 05:07 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Football families will tend to go see their college athlete sons playing at bowl games. I doubt there's a set of parents who wouldn't see their kid play a college bowl game.

Anyway, I'd make an effort to go if it worked out. The real problem this year is that airfare has gone up a lot. I'm having to book tickets almost a month-plus in advance to get reasonable fares. Used to be two weeks back in the day...then three weeks. And this year, four. With bowl games being announced so close to the games, you're really counting on driving-distance fans to fill seats.

I was wondering more about extended family, parents, grandparents, aunts. uncles, siblings, and cousins, relatives who might be at their family Christmas, especially for games from say Dec 23-27. Two parents travelling is one thing, 5-10 family members is another

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - qwerty49 - 12-08-2025

(12-08-2025, 02:42 PM)martyup Wrote: Would Stanford take a bowl game if offered? Should they?

At 4-8?

Ha ha I’m sure in your vast library of GIFs you have one of a certain Stanford alum questioning a linesman’s call.

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - BostonCard - 12-08-2025

[Image: tennis-out.gif]

Not Marty, but still obliging.

BC

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - jacket3ree - 12-08-2025

(12-08-2025, 02:42 PM)martyup Wrote: Would Stanford take a bowl game if offered? Should they?

Don't know. I hope they would have some pride. That said, they won't be offered. I know fans showing up don't really matter, but talk about awful TV.

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - fullmetal - 12-09-2025

Someone online said that it costs about $750k to send a football team to a bowl game. If the conference distribution income doesn't cover that, and if there's a high likelihood that a program wouldn't be able to sell enough of their ticket purchase obligation, then there might be good reasons to not go to a bowl game. But in the interests of getting guys more practice time and giving them the full season experience, I would say athletes and fans expect teams to participate in bowl games when invited.

RE: LATEST CFP SCENARIO / RANKINGS - PalmTree - 12-09-2025

(12-09-2025, 05:00 PM)fullmetal Wrote: Someone online said that it costs about $750k to send a football team to a bowl game. If the conference distribution income doesn't cover that, and if there's a high likelihood that a program wouldn't be able to sell enough of their ticket purchase obligation, then there might be good reasons to not go to a bowl game. But in the interests of getting guys more practice time and giving them the full season experience, I would say athletes and fans expect teams to participate in bowl games when invited.

In the last 5-10+ years or so, a number of high-profile players - including CMac, IIRC - opted out of participating in bowl games due to injury concerns. Any thoughts on whether NILs and other changes in the FB financial landscape might affect that trend?