Outside Topic OT: 2022 Niners thread - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Outside Topic OT: 2022 Niners thread (/thread-23181.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Outside Topic OT: 2022 Niners thread (/thread-23181.html)
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Mick - 01-02-2023
(01-02-2023, 10:35 AM)lex24 Wrote:(01-02-2023, 10:12 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: "That's why they play the games" - has never been more appropriate to describe the Raiders racking up 500 yards and 34 points on the supposedly #1 Defense in the NFL.
I'm now more than a little concerned about the pas defense. Great to be #1 against the run, and Jacobs - the NFL's leading rusher - held to a long carry of just 9 yards and 69 total and an average 4.1 YPC, but you win in modern football by Pass Efficiency Defense more than Run Defense. The Niners pass defense is really leaving a lot to be desired. They miss Emanuel Moseley something terrible.
They continue to blow coverages and allow way too many deep ball completions, though the 45 yard gain by Adams that set up the tying TD, was absolutely not a catch. Just a terrible job by the replay review.
It was good for Purdy to lead the team to a second half comeback. That was the one really important box he had not yet checked, and he absolutely did check it in Vegas.
The Vikings are the worst 12 win team in NFL history.
Niners are at or near top in passing defense. You don’t have the top NFL defense and not defend the pass well. They anticipated run heavy Raider offense. Got hurt by play action. Lenoir had a terrible game. Adams is the best receiver in NFL (along with Jefferson) and played like it. The pass rush was not as good as usual. That’s due in part, I suspect to keying on Jacobs. Also in part to being a little flat.
Can’t have the gaping holes for QB runs. He had three big scrambles.
Purdy had nice second half. Showed he could lead team back and executed a nice 2 minute drill. We did see his limited arm strength on a couple throws. But thats a relatively minor issue. Just don’t hang an out. (Niners don’t run out routes much anyway)
Hopefully Greenlaw and Banks are ok. Get through Arizona. Hopefully get a lead and get guys out.
Philly-NYG could be interesting. Especially if Hurts doesn’t play.
Number 2 seed should get to pick opponent from the 3 WC’s. Then 3 seed picks. I sure don’t like thought of playing a surging Packer team.
+1, you nailed it, Lex. The Niners really miss three of their DBs out for the season, including Moseley and Verrett. Their pass rush overpursued, leaving gaping holes for Stidham. All of the 49ers likely playoff opponents have mobile quarterbacks. I think Greenlaw has an MCL issue?
Purdy didn't have a great game, he had an OK game. Missed a number of wide open receivers, didn't see the DB on his interception.
Multiple coaches and players said it was good to have a game like they did against LV in order to focus on tightening up the key issues.
49ers have the #2 seed currently, which, I think, is the most likely position. I'm fairly certain they'll beat the Arizona Cardinals, but I still think Philly will beat the Giants. The Giants have literally nothing to play for, their #5 seed won't change whether they win or lose and Philadelphia is playing for a first round bye. They'll be motivated. At the same time, without Jalen Hurts, the Eagles are a lesser team, and even if Philly gets the #1 seed, I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose before they play the 49ers.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 01-02-2023
According to reporting, Greenlaw had a back issue caused by Fred Warner hitting him.
Banks didn't look to be that bad to me, at least the mechanism that caused inward force on his knee could have been way worse. But I will never forget how little it took for Henry Anderson to sprain his MCL in a game against Army IIRC. I think he was out 4-5 weeks. Obviously hope it's a 2-3 week thing, though Daniel Brunskill is a decent backup.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - lex24 - 01-02-2023
(01-02-2023, 10:47 AM)Mick Wrote:(01-02-2023, 10:35 AM)lex24 Wrote:(01-02-2023, 10:12 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: "That's why they play the games" - has never been more appropriate to describe the Raiders racking up 500 yards and 34 points on the supposedly #1 Defense in the NFL.
I'm now more than a little concerned about the pas defense. Great to be #1 against the run, and Jacobs - the NFL's leading rusher - held to a long carry of just 9 yards and 69 total and an average 4.1 YPC, but you win in modern football by Pass Efficiency Defense more than Run Defense. The Niners pass defense is really leaving a lot to be desired. They miss Emanuel Moseley something terrible.
They continue to blow coverages and allow way too many deep ball completions, though the 45 yard gain by Adams that set up the tying TD, was absolutely not a catch. Just a terrible job by the replay review.
It was good for Purdy to lead the team to a second half comeback. That was the one really important box he had not yet checked, and he absolutely did check it in Vegas.
The Vikings are the worst 12 win team in NFL history.
Niners are at or near top in passing defense. You don’t have the top NFL defense and not defend the pass well. They anticipated run heavy Raider offense. Got hurt by play action. Lenoir had a terrible game. Adams is the best receiver in NFL (along with Jefferson) and played like it. The pass rush was not as good as usual. That’s due in part, I suspect to keying on Jacobs. Also in part to being a little flat.
Can’t have the gaping holes for QB runs. He had three big scrambles.
Purdy had nice second half. Showed he could lead team back and executed a nice 2 minute drill. We did see his limited arm strength on a couple throws. But thats a relatively minor issue. Just don’t hang an out. (Niners don’t run out routes much anyway)
Hopefully Greenlaw and Banks are ok. Get through Arizona. Hopefully get a lead and get guys out.
Philly-NYG could be interesting. Especially if Hurts doesn’t play.
Number 2 seed should get to pick opponent from the 3 WC’s. Then 3 seed picks. I sure don’t like thought of playing a surging Packer team.
+1, you nailed it, Lex. The Niners really miss three of their DBs out for the season, including Moseley and Verrett. Their pass rush overpursued, leaving gaping holes for Stidham. All of the 49ers likely playoff opponents have mobile quarterbacks. I think Greenlaw has an MCL issue?
Purdy didn't have a great game, he had an OK game. Missed a number of wide open receivers, didn't see the DB on his interception.
Multiple coaches and players said it was good to have a game like they did against LV in order to focus on tightening up the key issues.
49ers have the #2 seed currently, which, I think, is the most likely position. I'm fairly certain they'll beat the Arizona Cardinals, but I still think Philly will beat the Giants. The Giants have literally nothing to play for, their #5 seed won't change whether they win or lose and Philadelphia is playing for a first round bye. They'll be motivated. At the same time, without Jalen Hurts, the Eagles are a lesser team, and even if Philly gets the #1 seed, I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose before they play the 49ers.
Philly not only playing for a bye. If they lose, Cowboys win division. And as you correctly note, Giants have nothing to play for. Can’t see Giants winning under the circumstances.
Get ready for more Rodgers chip on his shoulder bullshit. Still, hate to play GB.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Mick - 01-02-2023
(01-02-2023, 12:23 PM)lex24 Wrote:(01-02-2023, 10:47 AM)Mick Wrote:(01-02-2023, 10:35 AM)lex24 Wrote:(01-02-2023, 10:12 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: "That's why they play the games" - has never been more appropriate to describe the Raiders racking up 500 yards and 34 points on the supposedly #1 Defense in the NFL.
I'm now more than a little concerned about the pas defense. Great to be #1 against the run, and Jacobs - the NFL's leading rusher - held to a long carry of just 9 yards and 69 total and an average 4.1 YPC, but you win in modern football by Pass Efficiency Defense more than Run Defense. The Niners pass defense is really leaving a lot to be desired. They miss Emanuel Moseley something terrible.
They continue to blow coverages and allow way too many deep ball completions, though the 45 yard gain by Adams that set up the tying TD, was absolutely not a catch. Just a terrible job by the replay review.
It was good for Purdy to lead the team to a second half comeback. That was the one really important box he had not yet checked, and he absolutely did check it in Vegas.
The Vikings are the worst 12 win team in NFL history.
Niners are at or near top in passing defense. You don’t have the top NFL defense and not defend the pass well. They anticipated run heavy Raider offense. Got hurt by play action. Lenoir had a terrible game. Adams is the best receiver in NFL (along with Jefferson) and played like it. The pass rush was not as good as usual. That’s due in part, I suspect to keying on Jacobs. Also in part to being a little flat.
Can’t have the gaping holes for QB runs. He had three big scrambles.
Purdy had nice second half. Showed he could lead team back and executed a nice 2 minute drill. We did see his limited arm strength on a couple throws. But thats a relatively minor issue. Just don’t hang an out. (Niners don’t run out routes much anyway)
Hopefully Greenlaw and Banks are ok. Get through Arizona. Hopefully get a lead and get guys out.
Philly-NYG could be interesting. Especially if Hurts doesn’t play.
Number 2 seed should get to pick opponent from the 3 WC’s. Then 3 seed picks. I sure don’t like thought of playing a surging Packer team.
+1, you nailed it, Lex. The Niners really miss three of their DBs out for the season, including Moseley and Verrett. Their pass rush overpursued, leaving gaping holes for Stidham. All of the 49ers likely playoff opponents have mobile quarterbacks. I think Greenlaw has an MCL issue?
Purdy didn't have a great game, he had an OK game. Missed a number of wide open receivers, didn't see the DB on his interception.
Multiple coaches and players said it was good to have a game like they did against LV in order to focus on tightening up the key issues.
49ers have the #2 seed currently, which, I think, is the most likely position. I'm fairly certain they'll beat the Arizona Cardinals, but I still think Philly will beat the Giants. The Giants have literally nothing to play for, their #5 seed won't change whether they win or lose and Philadelphia is playing for a first round bye. They'll be motivated. At the same time, without Jalen Hurts, the Eagles are a lesser team, and even if Philly gets the #1 seed, I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose before they play the 49ers.
Philly not only playing for a bye. If they lose, Cowboys win division. And as you correctly note, Giants have nothing to play for. Can’t see Giants winning under the circumstances.
Get ready for more Rodgers chip on his shoulder bullshit. Still, hate to play GB.
I don't mind. Rodgers is 0-4 against the 49ers in the postseason, 0-2 vs. Shanahan's 49ers:
Divisional Round - San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - January 22nd, 2022 | Pro-Football-Reference.com
NFC Championship - Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers - January 19th, 2020 | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Wild Card - San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - January 5th, 2014 | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Divisional Round - Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers - January 12th, 2013 | Pro-Football-Reference.com
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 01-09-2023
I was rooting like hell for the Rams - which felt very weird until a friend reminded me I was rooting against Seattle - and by gosh they almost puled off the upset that would have put the Lions in Levi's next weekend.
As a Niners fan, I can't put into words how much more I wanted to play Seattle than Green Bay. This isn't because I fear either team more than the other, but F Seattle. Niners owe them some playoff pain pay back for the 2013 NFC CG that was one of the most painful and angering losses I've ever experienced as a Niners fan. It was worse than the 1987 Divisional Championship loss to Minnesota. Worse than the 1985 and 1986 debacles in New York. It was even worse than the 1983 NFC Championship Game.
I wanted Seattle to miss the playoffs, but nothing will be sweeter than beating them in the playoffs and wiping the smug smile off Pete Carroll's face.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - French Rage - 01-09-2023
Hey I've got a great idea, let's put the SF game on early and the Jax game on late!
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - lex24 - 01-09-2023
(01-09-2023, 06:10 PM)French Rage Wrote: Hey I've got a great idea, let's put the SF game on early and the Jax game on late!
I’d rather they play at 1:30 then 5.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Phogge - 01-10-2023
I would rather work when it isn’t raining. My position isn’t covered.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - cardcrimson - 01-10-2023
(01-10-2023, 01:31 PM)Phogge Wrote: I would rather work when it isn’t raining. My position isn’t covered.Is it ever going to stop? Horrific in the East Bay right now. Torrential rain, hail, lightning, and another line or two of T-storms headed our way. You safe up on the Marin hills?
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Phogge - 01-10-2023
We were on the edge of the lightning but got heavy rain and hail. We've had two 120' Doug Firs down since Wednesday with power out for 4 days, then one day. Roads currently open but when high tide rolls in may flood.
Update on the Cardinal game. Hard Knocks In Season on HBOMax. probably later in the week. Plenty of crews and in my old position Top Camera.
TC
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Mick - 01-10-2023
Just had 12 hours out of power in Willow Glen, 2:20 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. Apparently one of the steel power towers blew over.
Lots of intermittent rain. Not super heavy, just relentless.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - cardcrimson - 01-10-2023
(01-10-2023, 02:36 PM)Phogge Wrote: We were on the edge of the lightning but got heavy rain and hail. We've had two 120' Doug Firs down since Wednesday with power out for 4 days, then one day. Roads currently open but when high tide rolls in may flood.
Update on the Cardinal game. Hard Knocks In Season on HBOMax. probably later in the week. Plenty of crews and in my old position Top Camera.
TC
Crazy stuff TC, glad you guys are okay and have plenty of firewood for the next few years, safely.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Phogge - 01-10-2023
Ha Ha. We burn three and a half cords every year. Start with fir to get it hot then add oak. Bay? Maybe. Two wood stoves, two fireplaces. Augmented by propane. We like roughing it. Slingshot for chipmunks, .22 for gophers, Sears Ted Williams shotgun for 'visitors." We now have a momma bear and two cubs roaming the park and environs.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - lex24 - 01-12-2023
Rain is going to be a factor Saturday. Maybe a major factor. Especially if it’s joined by winds. Big plus for Seattle, I think.
Nice article in Chron on the major moves this year that led to 13-4 and 10 straight. One, of course, McCaffrey trade. Since he came they have gone from about 340 to 397 yards a game. More importantly, points have gone from 20.3 to 29.8. Add that some of that time was while Deebo was hurt and it’s even more impressive. Course, Purdy in the last 5 has had something to do with it.
Shanahan won’t win COY. Eagles coach will. But hard to see how Lynch doesn’t win EOY. (First mentioned by Phogge).
(01-10-2023, 08:52 PM)Phogge Wrote: Ha Ha. We burn three and a half cords every year. Start with fir to get it hot then add oak. Bay? Maybe. Two wood stoves, two fireplaces. Augmented by propane. We like roughing it. Slingshot for chipmunks, .22 for gophers, Sears Ted Williams shotgun for 'visitors." We now have a momma bear and two cubs roaming the park and environs.
Stay safe! I’d say stay dry for Niners game. But that doesn’t appear possible….
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 01-12-2023
Obviously in a one game sample, anomalous things can happen. This is why single elimination playoffs are scary. That said, the Niners appear to have two glaring statistical weaknesses that Seattle shouldn't be able to take advantage of based on how the teams have performed to date, but I fear is what will upend the Niners season before the Lombardi Trophy is hoisted by Kyle Shanahan.
Flat out, it is Red Zone Efficiency. I think it's been established that the Niners have had a tendency to blow coverages and haven't demonstrated the discipline to match the talent on their defense, but this has not hurt them very much to date. I believe Red Zone scoring is a much bigger problem, the rate at which they score and allow TDs on Red Zone possessions.
The Niners and Seahawks have the two worst TD scoring percentages in Red Zone of all 14 playoff teams. This wouldn't be bad for the Niners if they had a dominant Red Zone TD stopping defense. They don't. They actually allow a higher Red Zone TD% than they convert, with a -2% differential. And Seattle has the worst differential of all 14 playoff teams, with -12%. All the AFC contenders are much more proficient in the Red Zone than the Niners are, and so too are Philly and Dallas. Even KC, who has the second worst Red Zone TD prevention (67% allowed) in the NFL, actually has a +2% better differential because they convert Red Zone possessions into TDs 69% of the time, second only to Dal.
The stat that matters most for the Niners-Seahawks, IMO is Rush Differential. The Niners are +1.3 and Sea is -.06. for the season. The Niners were + 1.6 in the first game they dominated at home 27-7. Though they both allowed 5 YPC in Seattle - in a game not nearly as close as the 21-13 score indicated - Sea only ran it 14 times for 70 yards to the Niners 34 for 170. Not really debatable that the Niners are better at the LOS than Sea, and usually decides football games, all other things being equal.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Mick - 01-12-2023
(01-12-2023, 09:56 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Obviously in a one game sample, anomalous things can happen. This is why single elimination playoffs are scary. That said, the Niners appear to have two glaring statistical weaknesses that Seattle shouldn't be able to take advantage of based on how the teams have performed to date, but I fear is what will upend the Niners season before the Lombardi Trophy is hoisted by Kyle Shanahan.
Flat out, it is Red Zone Efficiency. I think it's been established that the Niners have had a tendency to blow coverages and haven't demonstrated the discipline to match the talent on their defense, but this has not hurt them very much to date. I believe Red Zone scoring is a much bigger problem, the rate at which they score and allow TDs on Red Zone possessions.
The Niners and Seahawks have the two worst TD scoring percentages in Red Zone of all 14 playoff teams. This wouldn't be bad for the Niners if they had a dominant Red Zone TD stopping defense. They don't. They actually allow a higher Red Zone TD% than they convert, with a -2% differential. And Seattle has the worst differential of all 14 playoff teams, with -12%. All the AFC contenders are much more proficient in the Red Zone than the Niners are, and so too are Philly and Dallas. Even KC, who has the second worst Red Zone TD prevention (67% allowed) in the NFL, actually has a +2% better differential because they convert Red Zone possessions into TDs 69% of the time, second only to Dal.
The stat that matters most for the Niners-Seahawks, IMO is Rush Differential. The Niners are +1.3 and Sea is -.06. for the season. The Niners were + 1.6 in the first game they dominated at home 27-7. Though they both allowed 5 YPC in Seattle - in a game not nearly as close as the 21-13 score indicated - Sea only ran it 14 times for 70 yards to the Niners 34 for 170. Not really debatable that the Niners are better at the LOS than Sea, and usually decides football games, all other things being equal.
All correct, all good points.
I feel confident about the 49ers chances. They're #1 in the NFL in turnover margin, +0.8 per game. They're #1 in opponent scoring at 16.3 per game. They're #6 in scoring for the season, but #1 with a bullet over the last three games at 37.3 ppg. Brock Purdy has the highest passer rating in the league since he's been a starter at 107.3 and the fifth highest QBR. Garoppolo, BTW, has the third highest passer rating this year. Bosa, DPOTY. McCaffrey and Juzcszyk, the Stanford/Harvard backfield. I liked the interview of McCaffrey, when the reporter asked if Joosh's Harvard background changed their communications style at all, and McCaffrey replied, "Not really. I just speak a little slower..."
Aiyuk. Kittle. Williams. Mitchell. Samuel. Mason. Ray-Ray. Jennings. Two really good young guard.
Warner. Greenlaw. Hufanga. Ward & Ward. Lenoir. Gipson. Ebukam. Ridgeway. Givens. Hyder. Jackson. Thomas. Armstead.
We'll be fine.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Giants - 01-12-2023
(01-12-2023, 10:33 AM)Mick Wrote:(01-12-2023, 09:56 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Obviously in a one game sample, anomalous things can happen. This is why single elimination playoffs are scary. That said, the Niners appear to have two glaring statistical weaknesses that Seattle shouldn't be able to take advantage of based on how the teams have performed to date, but I fear is what will upend the Niners season before the Lombardi Trophy is hoisted by Kyle Shanahan.
Flat out, it is Red Zone Efficiency. I think it's been established that the Niners have had a tendency to blow coverages and haven't demonstrated the discipline to match the talent on their defense, but this has not hurt them very much to date. I believe Red Zone scoring is a much bigger problem, the rate at which they score and allow TDs on Red Zone possessions.
The Niners and Seahawks have the two worst TD scoring percentages in Red Zone of all 14 playoff teams. This wouldn't be bad for the Niners if they had a dominant Red Zone TD stopping defense. They don't. They actually allow a higher Red Zone TD% than they convert, with a -2% differential. And Seattle has the worst differential of all 14 playoff teams, with -12%. All the AFC contenders are much more proficient in the Red Zone than the Niners are, and so too are Philly and Dallas. Even KC, who has the second worst Red Zone TD prevention (67% allowed) in the NFL, actually has a +2% better differential because they convert Red Zone possessions into TDs 69% of the time, second only to Dal.
The stat that matters most for the Niners-Seahawks, IMO is Rush Differential. The Niners are +1.3 and Sea is -.06. for the season. The Niners were + 1.6 in the first game they dominated at home 27-7. Though they both allowed 5 YPC in Seattle - in a game not nearly as close as the 21-13 score indicated - Sea only ran it 14 times for 70 yards to the Niners 34 for 170. Not really debatable that the Niners are better at the LOS than Sea, and usually decides football games, all other things being equal.
We'll be fine.
…said Capt. Smith as he steamed confidently towards New York Harbor.
In this instance, the Niners have been put into a position of playing a rookie QB. All stats aside, that is the single most influencing factor re: the outcome of the game. If Purdy can handle the pressure, SF will win. Otherwise………
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - OutsiderFan - 01-12-2023
Hard to believe anyone remains skeptical about Brock Purdy because he is a rookie. Since he replaced Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy is the highest rated passer in the NFL.
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - Giants - 01-12-2023
(01-12-2023, 12:50 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Hard to believe anyone remains skeptical about Brock Purdy because he is a rookie. Since he replaced Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy is the highest rated passer in the NFL.
There is a reason no rookie QB has ever started a Super Bowl game. Playoffs are a different animal. The pressure of a one and done can be overwhelming.
Purdy may be the first but he has a long road ahead of him….
RE: OT: 2022 Niners thread - lex24 - 01-12-2023
(01-12-2023, 05:17 PM)Giants Wrote:(01-12-2023, 12:50 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Hard to believe anyone remains skeptical about Brock Purdy because he is a rookie. Since he replaced Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy is the highest rated passer in the NFL.
There is a reason no rookie QB has ever started a Super Bowl game. Playoffs are a different animal. The pressure of a one and done can be overwhelming.
Purdy may be the first but he has a long road ahead of him….
I believe it’s also Gino Smith’s first playoff start.
Niners are a much better team, top to bottom. Seattle has had a poor run defense. But Carroll is a good defensive coach. With weather perhaps being a major factor, i suspect he will load the box, pull the safeties up and dare them to throw it. On the other side, field conditions may slow pass rush. I expect Seattle to try and take a lot of deep shots.
I think the expected weather favors Seattle significantly.