Outside Topic Covid-19 considerations - Printable Version
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RE: Covid-19 considerations - 82 Card - 03-15-2020
This article gives the argument for Boris Johnson's approach:
'Herd immunity': Why Britain is actually letting the coronavirus spread
I'm no advocating the approach. I'm only putting this up here because I think the same kind of thinking may be driving some in our own government. To me, dwelling on herd immunity at this point is just an excuse for giving up. Failure to flatten the curve will result in increased deaths which will not be just from COVID-19.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - M T - 03-15-2020
(03-15-2020, 09:15 AM)burger Wrote: Here's a brief (and reference-less) counterpoint on the ACE2 inhibitor thing: https://www.escardio.org/Councils/Council-on-Hypertension-(CHT)/News/position-statement-of-the-esc-council-on-hypertension-on-ace-inhibitors-and-ang?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmfThanks! I have added this to my earlier post that has a table relating ACEI & ARB usage versus CFR.
CFR should be viewed in conjunction with the demographics. In the 4-hardest hit countries, the percent of population 65+ varies from 9% to 22.3%. I added a column CFR/65+% to give such a view. By that statistic, Iran's older population (9%) is really hit badly. Italy is actually a bit better than China currently (but I'm sure it will grow worse as its epidemic matures).
In the US, 22.7% of the population is 65+. That alone would suggest a relatively high CFR is coming.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - WBB fan - 03-15-2020
Question -- how do you get through to people who should understand better but just don't get it? I have a friend, Stanford grad, age 81, recent cancer patient who went through chemo. His girlfriend, with whom he spends a lot of time, in very frail health. Yesterday, he called and urged me to go out to lunch at some new place he wanted to try. I demurred. Today, a repeat of the invite. I'm trying to be polite in how I say no, at the same time making the point that this is really not a good idea. But he seems clueless. Also unable to understand that it's not his own health at rick, but that of others as well.
Any suggestions?? I did suggest that he take a look at this thread on the Cardboard
RE: Covid-19 considerations - dabigv13 - 03-15-2020
I think those decisions will be made for them soon. Illinois and Ohio closing bars and restaurants. More states will follow.
Show them the articles about Italy. The obituary pages filled up. That's the best way I think.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - 2006alum - 03-15-2020
(03-15-2020, 01:35 PM)WBB fan Wrote: Question -- how do you get through to people who should understand better but just don't get it? I have a friend, Stanford grad, age 81, recent cancer patient who went through chemo. His girlfriend, with whom he spends a lot of time, in very frail health. Yesterday, he called and urged me to go out to lunch at some new place he wanted to try. I demurred. Today, a repeat of the invite. I'm trying to be polite in how I say no, at the same time making the point that this is really not a good idea. But he seems clueless. Also unable to understand that it's not his own health at rick, but that of others as well.
Any suggestions?? I did suggest that he take a look at this thread on the Cardboard
I had a bunch of these conversations with older relatives about 1.5-2 weeks ago, all of whom were at least somewhat resistant, even then. One thing I emphasized was that because the virus sheds before people show symptoms (and some people are essentially asymptomatic altogether), anyone could be unknowingly carrying it - your waiter, the person who wiped down the silverware, the person who sat in your chair before you and touched the arms and the table, etc. I explained that the CFR rates for folks in their 70s and 80s were in the teens and that even those who survive often spend weeks in the ICU. Is all of that worth one random meal out?
Instead, offer to facetime him or meet for a walk (if he is well enough to walk a distance) with the two of you keeping a healthy 5-6 foot distance. Although there is some evidence that the virus aerosolizes for up to three hours, it's extremely unlikely to catch hold in open air if you are walking and keeping a distance.
And then tell him if he rainchecks you'll pick up the tab when we're on the other side of the infection curve.
FWIW, it sometimes took a day or two, but even two weeks ago, my relatives pretty quickly got on board, especially once I started sending them links...
Ohio Governor has ordered all bars and restaurants to shut down - clearly people weren't getting the social distancing messaging on their own:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1239282842431078401?s=20[/tweet]
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-15-2020
Mike Dewine (Republican governor of Ohio) and JB Pritzker, (the Democratic governor of Illinois) both shut down bars and restaurants just days before St. Patrick’s day.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1239279989578592256?s=21[/tweet]
Case numbers in the Midwest have not been as high as Washington, New York, and California, but I’m guessing they are seeing some very concerning signs.
BC
(03-15-2020, 01:20 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: BC do you have more info on that serology test? I'd be interested in hearing more about it.
Looks like Singapore developed the first serological test a couple weeks ago.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/singapore-claims-first-use-antibody-test-track-coronavirus-infections
And here is a website that claims to have a test available.
https://www.coronavirus-diagnostics.com/
Perkin-Elmer is a reputable company, but I don’t know them necessarily as a clinical diagnostics company. And the CDC is devloping it’s own test
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/cdc-developing-serologic-tests-that-could-reveal-full-scope-of-u-s-coronavirus-outbreak/
Of course these are the same guys who blew the PCR test because it was “not invented here”. Snark aside, I have great admiration for the work the CDC does, and I don’t think they will f this up again.
BC
Fed just cut interest rates to zero. Unfortunately, not even the fed can prevent the pandemic from spreading.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - WBB fan - 03-15-2020
(03-15-2020, 01:40 PM)2006alum Wrote:(03-15-2020, 01:35 PM)WBB fan Wrote: Question -- how do you get through to people who should understand better but just don't get it? I have a friend, Stanford grad, age 81, recent cancer patient who went through chemo. His girlfriend, with whom he spends a lot of time, in very frail health. Yesterday, he called and urged me to go out to lunch at some new place he wanted to try. I demurred. Today, a repeat of the invite. I'm trying to be polite in how I say no, at the same time making the point that this is really not a good idea. But he seems clueless. Also unable to understand that it's not his own health at rick, but that of others as well.
Any suggestions?? I did suggest that he take a look at this thread on the Cardboard
I had a bunch of these conversations with older relatives about 1.5-2 weeks ago, all of whom were at least somewhat resistant, even then. One thing I emphasized was that because the virus sheds before people show symptoms (and some people are essentially asymptomatic altogether), anyone could be unknowingly carrying it - your waiter, the person who wiped down the silverware, the person who sat in your chair before you and touched the arms and the table, etc. I explained that the CFR rates for folks in their 70s and 80s were in the teens and that even those who survive often spend weeks in the ICU. Is all of that worth one random meal out?
Instead, offer to facetime him or meet for a walk (if he is well enough to walk a distance) with the two of you keeping a healthy 5-6 foot distance. Although there is some evidence that the virus aerosolizes for up to three hours, it's extremely unlikely to catch hold in open air if you are walking and keeping a distance.
And then tell him if he rainchecks you'll pick up the tab when we're on the other side of the infection curve.
FWIW, it sometimes took a day or two, but even two weeks ago, my relatives pretty quickly got on board, especially once I started sending them links...
Ohio Governor has ordered all bars and restaurants to shut down - clearly people weren't getting the social distancing messaging on their own:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1239282842431078401?s=20[/tweet]
Thanks. Appreciate the suggestions. I'll see if I can penetrate the fog.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - Griffins78 - 03-15-2020
On a Sunday afternoon - the Fed just slashed interest rate to zero moments before the President's press announcement. What do you think about this?
I'm concerned that they've signaled we're in an extraordinary financial crisis and have used their bullets up based on political pressure. I think it'll give a temporary bump to the stock market but it doesn't help the consumer which is where the economy is going to struggle.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - burger - 03-15-2020
Gov. Newsom in CA just closed bars and nightclubs.
DiBlasio closed NYC schools.
Pleased to see the government is starting to do what will be needed. Still need to start handing out money though.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - M T - 03-15-2020
(03-15-2020, 01:23 PM)82 Card Wrote: This article gives the argument for Boris Johnson's approach:
'Herd immunity': Why Britain is actually letting the coronavirus spread
A quick summary for the TL;DR crowd. Isolate the high risk; let the disease spread fully through the low risk so they get it now and get antibodies; after that, the low risk are now mostly immune so they don't (1) have another epidemic & infect the high risk a year or two from now and (2) when the low risk age up to become high risk, they have immunity.
This seems very similar to "measles"/pox parties of the 1900s (since the kids were going to get German measles(rubella)/chickenpox eventually, it was better for them to get it young).
There are several issues. 1) How do you keep care-givers for the high risk people from getting the disease? 2) You are assuming that a vaccine isn't developed. 3) The low-risk are not zero-risk. They still get quite ill and need hospitalization, which can overwhelm the hospitals. 4) Once this gets going, i doubt you can stop it.
There are advantages, mostly listed in the article. The cost of trying to fend off the disease may be high initially, and equally high perhaps every year. Maybe you can afford it one year, but can you afford it 10 years in row?
The one thing I've noticed that would suggest the US government is leaning this way is the order allowing to ban (or banning, I'm not sure) visitors from retirement homes.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-15-2020
This tweet was very prescient...
[tweet]https://twitter.com/atomicanalyst/status/994696175575068672?s=21[/tweet]
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - M T - 03-15-2020
(03-15-2020, 02:21 PM)burger Wrote: Gov. Newsom in CA just closed bars and nightclubs.
Hmmm... Where are Tinder clients going to meet? I know, at your local speakeasy.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - OutsiderFan - 03-15-2020
I have no idea WTF the FED is doing now.
My take is more people are starting to come to grips with what is happening and are ready to ride it out. They aren't going to be looking to spend money except on essentials right now.
When the storm passes is when the stimulus actions should be done. Now the Fed has no tools to use when things get REALLY bad. Well, it could always print money and give it to everyone, hoping inflation does run rampant.
Brace for another equity market plunge this week. What happened last week was before anyone contemplated nation-wide shutdown or 0% Fed rates.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - BostonCard - 03-15-2020
(03-15-2020, 03:02 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I have no idea WTF the FED is doing now.
My take is more people are starting to come to grips with what is happening and are ready to ride it out. They aren't going to be looking to spend money except on essentials right now.
When the storm passes is when the stimulus actions should be done. Now the Fed has no tools to use when things get REALLY bad. Well, it could always print money and give it to everyone, hoping inflation does run rampant.
Brace for another equity market plunge this week. What happened last week was before anyone contemplated nation-wide shutdown or 0% Fed rates.
Things are really bad. You started seeing liquidity dry up. Boeing tapped into its entire line of credit. Lots of very leveraged companies are exposed to the massive oil price collapse. Lots of businesses have seen a dramatic reduction in cash flow. And everyone sees the same thing and is coming to the same conclusion.
The fed had to intervene. Unfortunately, I don’t know if this will be enough.
BC
RE: Covid-19 considerations - stupac2 - 03-15-2020
(03-15-2020, 03:02 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I have no idea WTF the FED is doing now.
My take is more people are starting to come to grips with what is happening and are ready to ride it out. They aren't going to be looking to spend money except on essentials right now.
When the storm passes is when the stimulus actions should be done. Now the Fed has no tools to use when things get REALLY bad. Well, it could always print money and give it to everyone, hoping inflation does run rampant.
Brace for another equity market plunge this week. What happened last week was before anyone contemplated nation-wide shutdown or 0% Fed rates.
Why would doing this later be better than now? It's all the same: pissing into the wind. But they have to do it. Hopefully congress gets its act together and starts sending out the checks, because that's the only way we're going to avoid a depression-like plunge. US GDP is nearly $20T, if economic activity basically ceases for 3 months that's a lot of shortfall...
I wonder if the GOP would agree to implement automatic stabilizers now, there are a number of proposals out there (some discussed here, but there are more), pretty much anything would be better than doing it ad hoc like we've been doing.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - UltimateCard - 03-15-2020
Quote:The V.A. Prepares to Back Up a Health Care System Threatened by Coronavirushttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/us/politics/veterans-affairs-coronavirus.html
The sprawling Department of Veterans Affairs is legally designated as the nation’s backup health system and could prove vital in the pandemic.
What do folks here make of this? Could they really add needed capacity or will they have their hands full just taking care of existing patients and infected veterans?
Leftcoast - Leftcoast - 03-15-2020
One problem with dropping interest rates when it is NOT necessary is you leave yourself one less lever to use when such levers become critical.
This should be a learning moment for those who have been pillorying the Fed chairman during relatively good times. Listening to experts, acknowledging your instincts might be wrong, and listening to good advice are important traits in leaders.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - chrisk - 03-15-2020
Monetary policy is a side show now. Even general fiscal policy is not that relevant, except for the brobdingnagian enhancement required to the safety net to buffer the big spike in workers not being paid.
RE: Leftcoast - Snorlax94 - 03-15-2020
(03-15-2020, 04:11 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: One problem with dropping interest rates when it is NOT necessary is you leave yourself one less lever to use when such levers become critical.I would normally agree with this sentiment. Trump squandered economic levers needlessly during the first 3 years of his presidency leaving the country in a weaker position during a true crisis (i.e., NOW). When the Tax Cut of 2017 passed, and Trump kept pushing for low interest rates even with a rapidly-growing economy with full employment, the analogy I used was like inheriting a perfectly good house furnace, but then using your emergency fuel to throw gasoline on the fire to make the economy unusually hot, and many people -- I think uninformed -- took the hot economy to mean Trump's policies were good ones. But he was unnecessarily squandering America's emergency fuel. I think that was as pretty mainstream sentiment in 2017 "we don't need all this free cash, but sure, we'll take it." BTW, I saw a lot of savvy CEOs in 2019 realize what had happened, and retired in 2019 and sold a lot of stock at the peak, because they knew it had been, really, an economic gimmick and a short-term gift. (If you consider how much corporate tax rates were slashed, actually, the stocks did not rise that much, and now, they haven't risen at all, even with greatly reduced corporate taxes).
But despite this, I actually agree with the recent actions by the Fed to free up the money supply. Additionally, they decided last week to pump $1.5T (that's TRILLION) into the markets to boost liquidity.
As BostonCard mentions above, NOW is an actual monetary crisis, due to the very, very troubling lack of liquidity in the markets. There was an article about this in Thursday's Upshot/NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/upshot/markets-weird-coronavirus.html
*This* is by far the freakiest economic news I have seen since the virus broke, and one of the most potentially worrisome economic signs I've seen (at least once-in-a-decade troubling). It's just "freaky" and "mysterious" at this point, but I am glad the Fed is taking extreme action.
In the article, they said the Fed was investigating to try to figure out what's going on. Yeah, I am wondering, too. Even after you push interest rates to zero, there are still even more things the Fed can do, and they may need to. It's one thing if liquidity is poor and no one wants to buy your stocks, but it's very rare and scary if liquidity is so poor no one will buy your US bonds. So yes, the Fed should drop interest rates to 0 and as necessary, buy assets that should be liquid to provide cash and liquidity (the US gov't is uniquely able to be the buyer of last resort).
The maximum futures can drop are 5% before the market opens, and they've already done that after the Fed's announcement.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/the-sp-500-futures-hit-limit-down-at-5-percent.html
It sucks that the US already had a wasteful 1 Trillion deficit BEFORE the crisis due to unnecessary tax cuts, but the US economy is strong enough that it can absorb quite a bit more if necessary. But it will be painful later to to pay back the deficit spending back, with interest. Also note: the US had a 1 Trillion dollar deficit in 2019 when the stock market was roaring and there were tons of capital gains being paid out. So, in addition to the global slow down, broken supply chains, shut down businesses, laid-off employees, and people reducing their spending (though increasing it for now), the deficits were already going to balloon with the loss of capital gains taxes on the stock market. This will hit California particularly hard, because with so many tech companies, the state's budget is boom-or-bust based on capital gains taxes. (To his credit, Governor Brown had been trying to build a rainy day fund in good times)
My background: one of my degrees is in Economics, though my day-to-day work is not in that field.
RE: Covid-19 considerations - chrisk - 03-15-2020
S&P futures opened limit down today (5%). Trump’s pathetic performance today far overwhelmed any effect of a virtually meaningless Fed rate cut. More important is the Fed soaking up debt. But even more important will be the fiscal funding to partially offset lost wages. The Fed May finally get its wish for more inflation.