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RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - BobK - 04-05-2023
Hunter Bishop who has played only about 130 games since being dafted 10th overall by the Giants in 2019 is out for the year after elbow surgery
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-05-2023
(04-05-2023, 07:32 AM)BobK Wrote: Hunter Bishop who has played only about 130 games since being dafted 10th overall by the Giants in 2019 is out for the year after elbow surgery
Yeah, it’s been a tough go. I did hear and read that they remain high on Bailey. Ready now defensively, bat holding him back. Especially from the right side. If he can just be a decent hitter, he will have a spot. Probably next year.
Harrison debut 2 IP. 1 hit 1 run. 4 K’s. 4 BB’s. 62 pitches. Pump the brakes a little on him. He’s got to work on command and getting hitters out earlier in ab. I would not b3 surprised if he is in Sacto all year. He’s 21. No need to rush.
Speaking of Sac. They have walked 26 in last two games.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - DC 86 - 04-05-2023
(04-04-2023, 04:21 PM)Mick Wrote:(04-04-2023, 03:22 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(04-01-2023, 04:59 PM)Mick Wrote: I remember seeing Bailey's college stats and thinking in my John McEnroe inner voice "You cannot be serious. This guy can't hit, shouldn't be a first round pick, and we already have Joey Bart." I realize they took Bailey because he was more like a 3rd/4th pick, who agreed to sign for much less money.
That's a great story, except that the slot value for the pick was $4.197 million and Bailey signed for $3.8 million, less than a 10% discount. Third and fourth round slot values ranged from 431k to 857k that year.
The Giants had an overall pool of $9.2 million for their five draft picks. They saved on Patrick Bailey (and others) in order to spend just under $2.5 million -- not $710k, their third round slot value -- on their 3th round pick that year. Fella by the name of Kyle Harrison. Their last two picks, Dabovich and Murphy signed for just $197,500 and $22,500 respectively. All of the savings on each draft pick helped the Giants to sign Kyle Harrison.
Frankly, I thought all but Kyle Harrison were a stretch.
Nobody disputes that the Giants shrewdly manipulated their bonus pool money to sign Harrison to an over slot deal. However,
1. You said that they signed Bailey "for much less money" - False. $3.8 million is not much less than $4.197 million, it's less than 10% savings, and given that college players have less leverage than high school players it's pretty standard.
2. You said he was "more like a 3rd-4th pick" - again False. If that was the case the Giants could have offered Bailey $1 million (well above the highest third round slot value) and had over $3 million left over to not only sign Harrison over slot but to also sign their 2nd, 4th and 5th round picks to over slot deals as well, instead of having to go under slot as they did. That didn't happen because Bailey was considered a mid-first round pick by the industry. The Giants didn't offer $3.8 million as a charity.
3. You said that based on his college stats that Bailey "can't hit" - False yet again. He recorded a .979 career OPS (1.151 in his final season) as a well above average defensive catcher in a power conference. For comparison's sake, Joey Bart recorded a .950 career OPS (1.102 in his final season) playing in the same conference, and he was drafted #2 overall and received a signing bonus over $7 million, despite having a defensive reputation when drafted that was inferior to Bailey, albeit still regarded as an above average defender.
(04-05-2023, 07:32 AM)BobK Wrote: Hunter Bishop who has played only about 130 games since being dafted 10th overall by the Giants in 2019 is out for the year after elbow surgery
And none of those games has been above A-ball, and he turns 25 in June.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 04-05-2023
More on Patrick Bailey…
Prior to the 2020 MLB draft, Keith Law of The Athletic rated Bailey as the #10 overall prospect. Here is Law’s summary:
“Bailey is a no-doubt catcher with good instincts on both sides of the ball, solid contact rates with a little pop. With catching a perpetual area of need in the majors, I would expect Bailey to go in the same range as Shea Langeliers (#9 last year), maybe higher since there isn’t another catcher above him.”
I have a great deal of respect for Law’s assessments. Prior to Bart’s selection as the #2 overall selection in the 2018 draft, he wrote (paraphrasing) Bart struggles to make consistent contact. That comment has proven to be 100% accurate.
More on Patrick Bailey…
Prior to the 2020 MLB draft, Keith Law of The Athletic rated Bailey as the #10 overall prospect. Here is Law’s summary:
“Bailey is a no-doubt catcher with good instincts on both sides of the ball, solid contact rates with a little pop. With catching a perpetual area of need in the majors, I would expect Bailey to go in the same range as Shea Langeliers (#9 last year), maybe higher since there isn’t another catcher above him.”
I have a great deal of respect for Law’s assessments. Prior to Bart’s selection as the #2 overall selection in the 2019 draft, he wrote (paraphrasing) Bart struggles to make consistent contact. That comment has proven to be 100% accurate.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-05-2023
(04-05-2023, 01:26 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(04-04-2023, 04:21 PM)Mick Wrote:(04-04-2023, 03:22 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(04-01-2023, 04:59 PM)Mick Wrote: I remember seeing Bailey's college stats and thinking in my John McEnroe inner voice "You cannot be serious. This guy can't hit, shouldn't be a first round pick, and we already have Joey Bart." I realize they took Bailey because he was more like a 3rd/4th pick, who agreed to sign for much less money.
That's a great story, except that the slot value for the pick was $4.197 million and Bailey signed for $3.8 million, less than a 10% discount. Third and fourth round slot values ranged from 431k to 857k that year.
The Giants had an overall pool of $9.2 million for their five draft picks. They saved on Patrick Bailey (and others) in order to spend just under $2.5 million -- not $710k, their third round slot value -- on their 3th round pick that year. Fella by the name of Kyle Harrison. Their last two picks, Dabovich and Murphy signed for just $197,500 and $22,500 respectively. All of the savings on each draft pick helped the Giants to sign Kyle Harrison.
Frankly, I thought all but Kyle Harrison were a stretch.
Nobody disputes that the Giants shrewdly manipulated their bonus pool money to sign Harrison to an over slot deal. However,
1. You said that they signed Bailey "for much less money" - False. $3.8 million is not much less than $4.197 million, it's less than 10% savings, and given that college players have less leverage than high school players it's pretty standard.
1) It's $400,000 less. You're pretending it's insignificant. Would you walk away from $400k? I wouldn't.
2) $4.197 million is 11.042105% more than $3.8 million.
3) You said it's pretty standard. Three guys of the 12 drafted in front of him and eight of the 30 selected in the first round signed for that much or more less than their pick value. I don't consider that to be standard.
4) I said they "saved on Patrick Bailey and others." Bailey was nearly $400k below, Schmitt was around $350k below, Glowenke was around $456k below, Dabovich was $312k (approx) below, Murphy was $350k below. They all (except Swiney) signed for less so they could get Harrison.
(04-05-2023, 01:26 PM)DC 86 Wrote: 2. You said he was "more like a 3rd-4th pick" - again False. If that was the case the Giants could have offered Bailey $1 million (well above the highest third round slot value) and had over $3 million left over to not only sign Harrison over slot but to also sign their 2nd, 4th and 5th round picks to over slot deals as well, instead of having to go under slot as they did. That didn't happen because Bailey was considered a mid-first round pick by the industry. The Giants didn't offer $3.8 million as a charity.
I meant that in my view he was worth a 3rd/4th round pick. He's sure tearing it up, isn't he?
(04-05-2023, 01:26 PM)DC 86 Wrote: 3. You said that based on his college stats that Bailey "can't hit" - False yet again. He recorded a .979 career OPS (1.151 in his final season) as a well above average defensive catcher in a power conference. For comparison's sake, Joey Bart recorded a .950 career OPS (1.102 in his final season) playing in the same conference, and he was drafted #2 overall and received a signing bonus over $7 million, despite having a defensive reputation when drafted that was inferior to Bailey, albeit still regarded as an above average defender.
I made the comment that Bailey couldn't hit for the following reasons:
a) I discount college OPS almost completely. Anyone can hit for power with aluminum bats against college pitching in the ACC, the 3rd/4th best NCAA league.
b) More to the point, Bailey can't make contact. He hit .288 as a junior and .296 as a senior in a hitter's league. The average batting average in the ACC his senior year was .286. Bailey was very, very slightly above average in making contact in the ACC. And he struck out 18 times in 73 plate appearances (24.7%, against college pitching). And as far as the NCAA goes, that doesn't crack the Top 700 hitters.
c) He hit much better as a frosh. In other words, he regressed in hitting ability.
d) When he traveled with Team USA (again, wood bats), his stock definitely cooled. He had 12 strikeouts in 26 at bats.
And, not surprisingly, he proved he couldn't hit much when he hit .185 in high A.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 04-05-2023
As a confirmed Baileyophile, I would not be surprised to see him in the starting lineup on Opening Day 2024. I think he has a much higher ceiling than Bart.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-06-2023
(04-05-2023, 10:29 PM)Giants Wrote: As a confirmed Baileyophile, I would not be surprised to see him in the starting lineup on Opening Day 2024. I think he has a much higher ceiling than Bart.
I genuinely hope he does, same with Schmitt. I'm assuming the recently-arrived Giants leadership thought Bart was dreck and that drafting a catcher was first priority. What surprises me is that they didn't deal Bart.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 04-06-2023
The Giants are averaging giving up 5.3 runs per game and scoring an average of 6.3 runs per game so far after today's 16-6 shellacking of the White Sox that featured Matt Beaty giving up 3 run when up 16-3 in bottom of 9th because the Giants as visiting team led by 10+ runs..
Another 5 HRs today. That makes 16 in 6 games. The Giants scored in 7 of 9 innings. Crazy.
Logan Webb, ostensibly the staff Ace, is 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA. Does the fact he's struck out 16 and walked 2 suggest he's the victim of bad luck? Or does the fact he's allowed 13 hits in 11 innings suggest he's not getting enough soft contact and that should be reason for concern?
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Leftcoast - 04-06-2023
(04-06-2023, 10:44 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Giants are averaging giving up 5.2 runs per game and scoring an average of 4.4 runs per game so far.
Today's game will change those averages substantially, 16-3 Giants in the bottom of the 9th with the Giants getting 20 hits, 16 runs, and 5 home runs for the day. We're still in the small sample size part of the season.
It's a laugher so Beaty, a position player, is now pitching and throwing softball pitches to the plate. Funny to watch 55 mph pitches cross the plate but I get the logic. Chicago's score may climb to the average with major league hitters swinging at batting cage floaters. Barring a disaster the Giants will win today, win this road series and earn a .500 road-trip.
They probably aren't a "great" team but I don't see a disastrous season building.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-06-2023
(04-06-2023, 02:02 PM)Leftcoast Wrote:(04-06-2023, 10:44 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The Giants are averaging giving up 5.2 runs per game and scoring an average of 4.4 runs per game so far.
Today's game will change those averages substantially, 16-3 Giants in the bottom of the 9th with the Giants getting 20 hits, 16 runs, and 5 home runs for the day. We're still in the small sample size part of the season.
They probably aren't a "great" team but I don't see a disastrous season building.
That's for sure. the Giants are #1 in HRs, #3 in OPS, T3 for most walks, 4th in OPS, T5 for runs scored. Unfortunately, #2 in strikeouts. #14 in steals, but T1 in not having been caught with zero thrown out.
More Bailey - DC 86 - 04-06-2023
I don't want to create a page-long post but this is a second response to Mick's "analysis" of Bailey:
Since you continue to perpetuate falsehoods and misleading statements I will again take up the task of correcting your misinformation, which I'm sure is getting boring for most readers (if there are any). But in the conclusion there is an important point which seems to be lost in all this, covered in the last paragraph for anyone who prefers to skip to the important part.
1. You said "It's $400,000 less. You're pretending it's insignificant. Would you walk away from $400k? I wouldn't". Whether I would walk away from that amount is irrelevant (and you don't know my financial situation anyway). Obviously any amount of money has to be considered in context. 400k is a fortune to a homeless man and pocket change to a billionaire. You said that Bailey was drafted in the first round (despite being a 3rd/4th round talent) because compared to the slot value assigned to the pick he was signing "for much less money" (your words). Again, it's less than a 10% saving. That's not "much less" in this context. "Much less" would be the difference between third (or fourth) round slot money and the slot value assigned to the 13th overall pick, as you were clearly implying until I corrected you and you changed your wording. It's barely 15% of Harrison's bonus, not insignificant, but still far from "much less" which implies that Bailey's discount was a substantial factor in signing Harrison.
2. You said "$4.197 million is 11.042105% more than $3.8 million." So what. That's not how you calculate savings. If you buy a $100 shirt for $90 you have saved 10%, not 11.1%. I have repeatedly referred to "discount" and "savings" so you either don't understand what those terms mean or are again trying to mislead.
3. You said "I discount college OPS almost completely. Anyone can hit for power with aluminum bats against college pitching in the ACC ..." False. Bailey was in tenth in the league in OBP (which accounts for about 75% of OPS and doesn't measure power at all) and he was eighth in the league is slugging percentage, which wouldn't be the case if "anyone" can hit for power; he hit for more power than all but seven players. If anyone could slug .685 then they would do so, obviously very few do.
4. You said "... the ACC, the 3rd/4th best NCAA league." False. Based on conference RPI the ACC is the second strongest league this year, was the second strongest league last year (2022) and has been ranked between first and third every season for the last two decades, never lower than third. You can use something like ISR (arguably more accurate than RPI) and reach the same conclusion.
5. You said "More to the point, Bailey can't make contact. He hit .288 as a junior and .296 as a senior in a hitter's league." False. You seem to be under the impression that batting average is the same as contact rate. In fact his contact rate in college was 81% and his K/BB ratio was 93/86 which are both very good numbers for a someone who hit 29 home runs in only 477 at bats. [btw he was drafted after his junior year so you were referring to his sophomore and junior years, a relatively insignificant error but again inaccurate.]
6. You said "He hit much better as a frosh. In other words, he regressed in hitting ability." FALSE in capital letters. Freshman OBP .419, Junior OBP .466. Freshman SLG .604, Junior SLG .685, K/BB ratio, XBH rate, HR rate, GIDP rate, etc all superior as a junior. The metric in which he posted an inferior number was in your beloved batting average, which has almost inconsequential predictive value. It's incredibly misleading to boldly state that he "regressed in hitting ability" based on a single metric without acknowledging all the others so that readers can decide for themselves.
7. You said "he proved he couldn't hit much when he hit .185 in high A" The 2021 batting average in Eugene is a fact, but again deliberately misleading as you cherry pick one small piece of information in order to support your narrative. He indeed hit .185 in 33 A+ games as a rookie. He hit .225 in 83 A+ games last year. Overall he's hit .247 in 165 minor league games. He's continued to get on base consistently (.355 OBP overall). Has he ht well? no, but it's dishonest not to at least present the whole picture and to base your conclusion on a small sample consisting of the worst stretch (by far) of his career, again focusing exclusively on one metric.
8. You said "And as far as the NCAA goes, that doesn't crack the Top 700 hitters." Again, you are referring strictly to batting average, based on your statement that on-base percentage and slugging percentage are worthless. Fine, but here is the bigger and most important point:
Bailey is an elite defensive catcher. He was regarded as a "no doubt" catcher as a draft prospect and he won the catching gold glove for the entire minor leagues last year. That ability combined with very strong OBP and SLG made him a premium prospect coming out of college. But even if batting average is your exclusive metric, the brobdingnagian flaw in your argument is that those 700 hitters are mostly comprised of first basemen, designated hitters and corner outfielders. Catchers on the list tend to be "bat first" types who may or may not be able to handle defensive duties in pro ball.
Last year there were 29 MLB catchers who recorded over 300 plate appearances.
- only 6/29 had a batting average above .255, 17/29 hit .250 or below, 4/29 hit under .200.
- only 12/29 had an on-base percentage above .305, 10/29 had an OBP under .285, 2/25 had OBP under .250.
- only 12/29 had slugging percentages above .400 (only one above .500), 9/29 had slugging percentages under .350.
And those are the starting catchers, not the backups! The offensive bar has never been lower for catchers.
Given his defensive bona fides if Bailey can get on-base even 28% of the time with any power at all he will be in the major leagues for 10-15 years and provide positive value. Given his platoon splits it seems probable that at a minimum he could do that in a part-time role. Disregarding positional value and evaluating offensive production in a vacuum is extremely foolish. Obviously if he was a 1B/DH/corner OF he would be in bust territory. But he's not, he's the opposite of that (elite at a premium defensive position that is currently suffering from extreme scarcity) and that's why he's on every single Giants top-ten prospects list despite below average batting numbers. Positional value has never been more important as offensive production at the catcher position has declined so dramatically.
Giants fans should actually feel sanguine about Bailey. If he turns out to be an excellent defender and below average hitter (admittedly the most probable outcome) that has value in today's game. If he manages to fix his hitting from the left side (not impossible) than he would represent a clear win. The range of outcomes is still broad, but on the whole he's still a good prospect. "He hit .185 in 33 games in 2021 so he's a bust" is a terrible counterargument.
lex24 - lex24 - 04-07-2023
I’m not analytics oriented. Defense has always been the most important attribute for a catcher. If he hits, that’s a bonus. Bailey is, by all accounts I’ve read, already a major league level catcher defensively. Which gives him a leg up.
Offensively, he’s been fine - as a left handed hitter. Awful as a right handed hitter, which interestingly is his natural side. The “buzz” is he’s made adjustments and is anticipating a much better year from the right side. We will see. If he continues to stink from the right side, the simple answer is end switch hitting. Concentrate on defense and hitting from the left side.
Bailey is far from a bust. It’s way too early to assume that. And while numbers etc tell some of the story, the “rest of the story” is that Zaidi continues to talk about him as a major prospect.
He’s not going to be ready this year. But I would not be surprised to see him as a major part of the Giants catching picture in ‘24.
I think Giants fans have been so spoiled that they have unreasonable expectations for catchers. Buster Posey was a unicorn. A great defensive catcher who handled pitchers tremendously was unbelievable in the clubhouse and just also happens to be a great hitter. You don’t replace somebody like that. You simply have someone else who can play the position. But the standards he set, I think made it very hard for those that follow. Personally, I think that’s part of Joey Bart’s problem. And I think the Giants did absolutely nothing to help Bart in that vein. From the outset there should’ve been a whole lot of discussion about that. They also got way too hung up on the fact that he strikes out a lot – so what most do. They should’ve just had him concentrate on defense and hitting for power. As it is, I think his days with the Giants are numbered. Signing Sanchez was the last straw. The organization has no faith in Bart, and he knows it. Unfortunately I don’t think he has any trade value at this point either.
RE: lex24 - Mick - 04-07-2023
(04-07-2023, 09:07 AM)lex24 Wrote: I’m not analytics oriented. Defense has always been the most important attribute for a catcher. If he hits, that’s a bonus. Bailey is, by all accounts I’ve read, already a major league level catcher defensively. Which gives him a leg up.
Offensively, he’s been fine - as a left handed hitter. Awful as a right handed hitter, which interestingly is his natural side. The “buzz” is he’s made adjustments and is anticipating a much better year from the right side. We will see. If he continues to stink from the right side, the simple answer is end switch hitting. Concentrate on defense and hitting from the left side.
Bailey is far from a bust. It’s way too early to assume that. And while numbers etc tell some of the story, the “rest of the story” is that Zaidi continues to talk about him as a major prospect.
He’s not going to be ready this year. But I would not be surprised to see him as a major part of the Giants catching picture in ‘24.
I think Giants fans have been so spoiled that they have unreasonable expectations for catchers. Buster Posey was a unicorn. A great defensive catcher who handled pitchers tremendously was unbelievable in the clubhouse and just also happens to be a great hitter. You don’t replace somebody like that. You simply have someone else who can play the position. But the standards he set, I think made it very hard for those that follow. Personally, I think that’s part of Joey Bart’s problem. And I think the Giants did absolutely nothing to help Bart in that vein. From the outset there should’ve been a whole lot of discussion about that. They also got way too hung up on the fact that he strikes out a lot – so what most do. They should’ve just had him concentrate on defense and hitting for power. As it is, I think his days with the Giants are numbered. Signing Sanchez was the last straw. The organization has no faith in Bart, and he knows it. Unfortunately I don’t think he has any trade value at this point either.
You're right, we're spoiled. Giants fans have accustomed to strong catchers. Since I've been a fan, and apart from Posey, they've had Dick Dietz, Dave Rader, Bob Brenly, Kirt Manwaring (won a gold glove), Benito Santiago, Mike Matheny, Bengie Molina, Historically, they had Hall of Famers Buck Ewing, Roger Bresnahan, and Ernie Lombardi; and All-Star catchers like Gus Mancuso, Walker Cooper, Tom Haller, Harry Danning, Jim O'Rourke, Chief Meyers (Top 10 MVP voting 3x), Wes Westrum and others like Shanty Hogan. Even clinkers like A. J. Pierczynski had redeeming value.
I don't see a place for Bart. Not great behind the plate, strikeout prone. I'm surprised they didn't get rid of him in the first place, if they thought Bailey was much better.
RE: lex24 - DC 86 - 04-07-2023
(04-07-2023, 09:07 AM)lex24 Wrote: I’m not analytics oriented. Defense has always been the most important attribute for a catcher. If he hits, that’s a bonus. Bailey is, by all accounts I’ve read, already a major league level catcher defensively. Which gives him a leg up.
Offensively, he’s been fine - as a left handed hitter. Awful as a right handed hitter, which interestingly is his natural side. The “buzz” is he’s made adjustments and is anticipating a much better year from the right side. We will see.
There is reason for optimism regarding his extreme platoon split. He's been switch hitting since he first started playing as a child, i.e. he wasn't converted to switch hitting in high school or college, and his problems from the right side are more recent. Because of Covid cancellations he went 14 months without playing in an organized baseball game between college and the pros, which may have gotten him out of synch.
One other thing to note regarding the overall offensive picture. He hit 225/342/420 last year in Eugene, but the Northwest League is an extreme pitchers league. The aggregate league batting line was 238/325/385 last year. So his OPS was 52 points above the league average; granted it was his second go around in the league and as a college player he should have been more advanced, but it was a better performance than what the superficial numbers show.
RE: lex24 - Giants - 04-07-2023
(04-07-2023, 09:07 AM)lex24 Wrote: I’m not analytics oriented. Defense has always been the most important attribute for a catcher. If he hits, that’s a bonus. Bailey is, by all accounts I’ve read, already a major league level catcher defensively. Which gives him a leg up.
Offensively, he’s been fine - as a left handed hitter. Awful as a right handed hitter, which interestingly is his natural side. The “buzz” is he’s made adjustments and is anticipating a much better year from the right side. We will see. If he continues to stink from the right side, the simple answer is end switch hitting. Concentrate on defense and hitting from the left side.
Bailey is far from a bust. It’s way too early to assume that. And while numbers etc tell some of the story, the “rest of the story” is that Zaidi continues to talk about him as a major prospect.
He’s not going to be ready this year. But I would not be surprised to see him as a major part of the Giants catching picture in ‘24.
I think Giants fans have been so spoiled that they have unreasonable expectations for catchers. Buster Posey was a unicorn. A great defensive catcher who handled pitchers tremendously was unbelievable in the clubhouse and just also happens to be a great hitter. You don’t replace somebody like that. You simply have someone else who can play the position. But the standards he set, I think made it very hard for those that follow. Personally, I think that’s part of Joey Bart’s problem. And I think the Giants did absolutely nothing to help Bart in that vein. From the outset there should’ve been a whole lot of discussion about that. They also got way too hung up on the fact that he strikes out a lot – so what most do. They should’ve just had him concentrate on defense and hitting for power. As it is, I think his days with the Giants are numbered. Signing Sanchez was the last straw. The organization has no faith in Bart, and he knows it. Unfortunately I don’t think he has any trade value at this point either.
Compound following a Hall of Fame player at a critical position with the fact that Bart was #2 draft selection and you have the recipe for unreasonable expectations.
Perhaps a “refresh” in Sacramento might prove beneficial. Odds are against it but you never know.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-07-2023
Perez hurt. Bart on IL. Giant are gonna have to call up Wynns. And he’s not on the 40. So, somebody’s got to go. My guess - Matt Beatty. Giants will put Perez on the IL, call up Wynns release Beatty and call up Wisler.
RE: More Bailey - Mick - 04-07-2023
(04-06-2023, 11:35 PM)DC 86 Wrote: I don't want to create a page-long post but this is a second response to Mick's "analysis" of Bailey. Since you continue to perpetuate blah blah blah...
And yet you did, actually create more than a page-long post. Two pages on my printer...
This is my final response to your so-called "analysis" of my comments. It seems crucially important for you to have the last word, so have at it. I'm sorry you had such difficulty understanding my comments. You certainly misinterpreted my meaning. So in my last response before you become literally the only Cardboard member that I've blocked, I'll stick to the facts:
1. I said the ACC had the 3rd best RPI in 2020, the year that Bailey was drafted. That is a fact. You responded by pointing to 2022, a year that Patrick Bailey didn't play in the ACC. Misleading.
2. I referred to Bailey's $3.8 mms. as representing a 10% discount. It's very close to 10% and you know it. And it is $397k, which is not insignificant for a recent college graduate. And you ignored the fact that I pointed out, that the vast majority of 1st round picks didn't sign for in excess of $397k less than their slot, which Bailey did, as did five other SFG draftees so they could sign 3rd round pick Kyle Harrison at more than triple his recommended slot money. He signed for - Fact $2.497mms., which was more than 10 of the first rounders. That's a fact. This was my key point, and it was a fact and you chose to ignore it.
3. I discount college OPS because it doesn't translate directly into MLB power. I pay attention to college batting average, and Bailey's was slightly higher than average for the ACC, and that means he misses balls -- a LOT. So the fact is that he struck out 72 times in 267 ABs in his second year in A+. So...no. It doesn't surprise me that the fact is that Bailey batted .225 with an OPS of .761 in high A+.
4. Yes, like Schmitt, he won the minor league Gold Glove. He's an excellent fielder. I never said he wasn't, and in fact I mentioned it on this board immediately after he and Schmitt won the minor league Gold Gloves.
5. Bailey hit .321 as a freshman with an OPS of 1.023 and then declined to a BA of .288 and an OPS of .903. It is a fact that he regressed. You chose to focus on his junior year, his COVID season and a schedule that was 85% non-ACC. NC State played just 17 games total that year, and 14 of them were against James Madison (three games with their #123 RPI), Longwood (#294), five games against Tennessee Tech (#266), and one game each against Iowa (#38), Purdue (#133), Minnesota (#152) and Coastal Carolina (#33). The fact is that they only played three games against your vaunted ACC opponent, Virginia (RPI of #61)...and they lost two of those three. You're essentially comparing full season to a partial, non-ACC season, and I'm comparing his only two full seasons. You are misleading, not me. My comparison is apples to apples.
6. You said he's on every Top 10 Giants prospect list. And as the 2020 #1 pick, he darned well should be. That isn't saying much, for his draft and age and defensive ability he should be in the top two or three. But the fact is that you are wrong -- he is not on every Top 10 list:
Prospects1500, he's #24: San Francisco Giants Top 50 Prospects (2023) (prospects1500.com)
mlb.com, he's #11: Giants Top Prospects | MLB.com
theAthletic, he's #11: Giants top 20 prospects 2023: Keith Law ranks San Francisco’s minor league farm system - The Athletic
Sports Illustrated, #21: SF Giants prospect rankings: Top 42 prospects - Sports Illustrated San Francisco Giants News, Analysis and More
In fact, SI gave him a 40 rating, which equates to "MLB backup", not even a platoon player, and certainly not an everyday player. For a top-15 pick, I would have expected better.
Here's FanGraphs' list of the 2023 SF Giants minor leagures who are most imminently close to the major leagues. Three years after being the #13 pick in the draft, Bailey is not on this list. Prospect Report: Giants 2023 Imminent Big Leaguers | FanGraphs Baseball And of the 15 college grads drafted among the Top 25 picks in 2020, 7 of them have already made the majors. 1st Round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft | Baseball-Reference.com
And to some of your other comments;
1) The MLB batting average in 2022 was .248. The position average for the 29 catchers you referenced was .239. In other words...not that different.
2) You said "Given his defensive bona fides if Bailey can get on-base even 28% of the time with any power at all he will be in the major leagues for 10-15 years." FACT: .280 OBP is the bottom six of those 29 guys. If his OBP is .280, he won't last 10 years in MLB.
3) You said "Given his platoon splits it seems probable that at a minimum he could do that in a part-time role." For the #13 overall draft pick, that's insufficient...but it is appropriate for a 3rd or 4th round pick.
4) You quoted me as writing "He hit .185 in 33 games in 2021 so he's a bust". I never said that or implied it. This is what I wrote: "And, not surprisingly, he proved he couldn't hit much when he hit .185 in high A." I didn't say or imply he was a bust. Don't put words in my mouth.
One final point. In spring training, Joey Bart's slash line was .214/.333/.393/.726. Bailey's was .286/.286/.357/.643. It's important to note that Bart faced pitchers that were considered to be stronger than those that faced Bailey (see link below). Bart is as imperfect as they come, but he still had a much higher slugging percentage and OPS than Bailey did...all while facing stronger pitching. And Blake Sabol outdistanced both, by a wide margin. Incidentally in spring training, Joey Bart didn't have any errors. But Sabol, Perez and Patrick Bailey each had two errors.
2023 San Francisco Giants Spring Training Pitching and Batting Stats | Baseball-Reference.com
We're not actually all that far apart. You said "Giants fans should actually feel sanguine about Bailey. If he turns out to be an excellent defender and below average hitter (admittedly the most probable outcome) that has value in today's game. If he manages to fix his hitting from the left side (not impossible) than he would represent a clear win. The range of outcomes is still broad, but on the whole he's still a good prospect."
My concern is that Patrick Bailey is exactly what I thought he would be, heading for a part-time MLB career. For the #13 overall pick, you hope for Posey, you'd be fine with Brenly, a one-time all star who never hit under .259 in the minors. You could even live with Kirt Manwaring. I'm concerned he (and Bart) will turn into Dann Bilardello.
So. Have the last word. I won't be reading it.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - BostonCard - 04-07-2023
Apropos the pitch clock…
Quote: The average game in 2022 took 3 hours 8 minutes, but the average game so far this season is downright reasonably 2 hours 38 minutes
For a fan like Bob, a half hour less per game gives him 4,860 minutes (some 81 hours) back that he can post on the Cardboard.
BC
RE: More Bailey - Giants - 04-08-2023
A few more thoughts re: Bailey.
I just read Baggerly’s report on today’s game. Evidently, I was being too conservative with my hope of seeing him as the Giants catcher on Opening Day next year. Baggerly wrote that SF is considering moving him up to the big club at some point this season.
He is far more than a “part time” guy. I believe he is the Giants future behind the plate. Mick, I really think you will be pleasantly surprised by him once he reaches the bigs. He is already well above average receiver. Add to that an offensive game that should be acceptable initially and become better as he gains experience. In other words, you have the makings of a guy who could have a long career as a starting catcher.
Lastly, I can’t realistically hope that any catcher selected by the Giants in the middle of the first round will be another Posey. He was a once in a generation talent who was selected in the top 5 and will be in the Hall of Fame someday. Heck, other than Baltimore’s Rutschman, there aren’t any young catchers in the game today who have the potential of becoming another Posey and Rutschman was the #1 overall selection in 2019.
My hope is finding a guy who can who consistently produce major league-level results defensively and offensively.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 04-08-2023
Less Filling!