Outside Topic OT: Giants 2023 thread - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Outside Topic OT: Giants 2023 thread (/thread-23596.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Outside Topic OT: Giants 2023 thread (/thread-23596.html)
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 04-11-2023
Kai-Wen Teng fanned 10 in 4 innings leading the Squirrels to a 5-1 win. And that isn’t “half” the story…..
The rest of the story - Richmond registered a total of 21 strikeouts.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-12-2023
(04-11-2023, 09:28 PM)Giants Wrote: Kai-Wen Teng fanned 10 in 4 innings leading the Squirrels to a 5-1 win. And that isn’t “half” the story…..
The rest of the story - Richmond registered a total of 21 strikeouts.
They're 4-0, doing quite well. Luis Matos and Tyler Fitzgerald are hot, with OPS north of 1.100. Patrick Bailey is showing a good eye, he's at .273/.385/.455/.840. If he can emulate Robby Thompson and jump from AA to the majors with comparatively little falloff in performance, then he'll be successful. RT hit .271 at AA Shreveport, then .261 as an SFG rookie. He actually had worse stats in A ball.
Giants had a nice win last night. Villar, Crawford hit homers, Joc Pederson had a run scoring double and Alex Wood and five relievers combined to throw a three-hitter as the Giants blanked the Dodgers, 5-0. Dodgers are now 6-6, Giants are 5-6.
Kershaw vs. Alex Cobb today. Should be fun. Kershaw is not the Kershaw of old, and Cobb has a 2.5 ERA.
Giants are 14th in Rtot, about MLB average in defense. They still have 8 errors in 11 games, which is on the high side, but their fielders have greater range. They're #7 in OPS, though average in runs per game (15th). They're 12th in ERA, and 8th in WHIP. I think better times are ahead.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 04-12-2023
(04-12-2023, 07:21 AM)Mick Wrote:(04-11-2023, 09:28 PM)Giants Wrote: Kai-Wen Teng fanned 10 in 4 innings leading the Squirrels to a 5-1 win. And that isn’t “half” the story…..
The rest of the story - Richmond registered a total of 21 strikeouts.
They're 4-0, doing quite well. Luis Matos and Tyler Fitzgerald are hot, with OPS north of 1.100. Patrick Bailey is showing a good eye, he's at .273/.385/.455/.840. If he can emulate Robby Thompson and jump from AA to the majors with comparatively little falloff in performance, then he'll be successful. RT hit .271 at AA Shreveport, then .261 as an SFG rookie. He actually had worse stats in A ball.
Giants had a nice win last night. Villar, Crawford hit homers, Joc Pederson had a run scoring double and Alex Wood and five relievers combined to throw a three-hitter as the Giants blanked the Dodgers, 5-0. Dodgers are now 6-6, Giants are 5-6.
Kershaw vs. Alex Cobb today. Should be fun. Kershaw is not the Kershaw of old, and Cobb has a 2.5 ERA.
Giants are 14th in Rtot, about MLB average in defense. They still have 8 errors in 11 games, which is on the high side, but their fielders have greater range. They're #7 in OPS, though average in runs per game (15th). They're 12th in ERA, and 8th in WHIP. I think better times are ahead.
I'd say the Giants are as mediocre as expected. The Dodgers aren't quite as good as recent vintages, but better than the Giants. The Padres are better. The D-Backs are better. The Giants are probably only better than the Rockies in the NL West.
In case y'all are missing it, the Tampa Bay Rays are now 11-0 to start the season just 2 wins from tying the all-time record for most wins to start season. Critics are pointing to the fact they've played the Tigers, Nats, A's and Red Sox (who they beat like a red headed step child in Tampa Bay). But if Mick were to post their stats, they would look amazing and would seem to translate against even better competition.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-12-2023
(04-12-2023, 09:49 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: In case y'all are missing it, the Tampa Bay Rays are now 11-0 to start the season just 2 wins from tying the all-time record for most wins to start season. Critics are pointing to the fact they've played the Tigers, Nats, A's and Red Sox (who they beat like a red headed step child in Tampa Bay). But if Mick were to post their stats, they would look amazing and would seem to translate against even better competition.
In case anyone was wondering, TBR is #1 in runs per game and OPS by an almost comical amount. They are at 7.55 runs per game, next most is the Rangers at 6.00. Giants are 4.82.
TBR's pitching staff ERA is #1 at 1.73. Next best is the Brewers at 2.51. Giants are at 4.22. TBR WHIP is 0.929, best in MLB.
TBR's defense (Rtot) is #3 in MLB.
Put bluntly, they are a juggernaut.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - old spanish trail - 04-12-2023
So. tell me again why Taylor Rogers received a hefty contract. I concluded last year that he had flamed out.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-12-2023
(04-12-2023, 03:28 PM)Mick Wrote:(04-12-2023, 09:49 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: In case y'all are missing it, the Tampa Bay Rays are now 11-0 to start the season just 2 wins from tying the all-time record for most wins to start season. Critics are pointing to the fact they've played the Tigers, Nats, A's and Red Sox (who they beat like a red headed step child in Tampa Bay). But if Mick were to post their stats, they would look amazing and would seem to translate against even better competition.
In case anyone was wondering, TBR is #1 in runs per game and OPS by an almost comical amount. They are at 7.55 runs per game, next most is the Rangers at 6.00. Giants are 4.82.
TBR's pitching staff ERA is #1 at 1.73. Next best is the Brewers at 2.51. Giants are at 4.22. TBR WHIP is 0.929, best in MLB.
TBR's defense (Rtot) is #3 in MLB.
Put bluntly, they are a juggernaut.
Right now, yes. It’s a long season. And the playoffs…..
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-13-2023
(04-12-2023, 10:51 PM)lex24 Wrote:(04-12-2023, 03:28 PM)Mick Wrote:(04-12-2023, 09:49 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: In case y'all are missing it, the Tampa Bay Rays are now 11-0 to start the season just 2 wins from tying the all-time record for most wins to start season. Critics are pointing to the fact they've played the Tigers, Nats, A's and Red Sox (who they beat like a red headed step child in Tampa Bay). But if Mick were to post their stats, they would look amazing and would seem to translate against even better competition.
In case anyone was wondering, TBR is #1 in runs per game and OPS by an almost comical amount. They are at 7.55 runs per game, next most is the Rangers at 6.00. Giants are 4.82.
TBR's pitching staff ERA is #1 at 1.73. Next best is the Brewers at 2.51. Giants are at 4.22. TBR WHIP is 0.929, best in MLB.
TBR's defense (Rtot) is #3 in MLB.
Put bluntly, they are a juggernaut.
Right now, yes. It’s a long season. And the playoffs…..
All too true. The Rays' hot start mirror the 1982 Braves (89-73) and the 1987 Brewers (91-71), both of whom started 13-0 before they lost. The 1982 Braves lost in the NLCS to Torre's Cardinals, and the Brewers finished third in their division and didn't make the playoffs. Interestingly, both teams had lengthy losing streaks. The Braves immediately went on a five game losing streak after their opening winning streak and the Brewers lost twelve in a row.
And to be fair, the Rays' opening games were against the Tigers, Athletics and Nationals, who are a combined 8-26. So...not the Yankees and Dodgers.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - BobK - 04-13-2023
Johnson out for awhile with a concussion after he hit the wall making his great catch
That’s at least 3 maybe 4 OFers out
RE: More Bailey - DC 86 - 04-13-2023
(04-09-2023, 11:03 PM)Giants Wrote: The Richmond box score every day and the Sacramento box score when Harrison is on the mound will either give us hope or cause more unrest in the fan base.
One thing to keep in mind is that minor league box score stats don't necessarily translate to major league performance. Kyle Harrison is a good example. His stuff is so spectacular that he can overwhelm minor league hitters, but his lack of command will hold him back until he fixes that problem. So his superficial numbers may be strong, and even his K/BB may look great, but it's misleading because AA hitters are chasing pitches that major leaguers will let pass, and therefore he will find himself in difficult counts against more experienced hitters.
A great example of what I mean is Dylan Cease. He was a major draft prospect and considered a phenomenal prospect as he rose up through the minors, putting up very strong superficial numbers along the way. But his command was poor so he struggled badly his first two shots at the majors. It was only in his third major league season (at age 25) that he became a solid starter, and the following season (at age 26) he became a dominant, Cy Young-type player. It wouldn't surprise me if Harrison followed a similar trajectory, albeit maybe younger. If he's called up prematurely he is likely to struggle a lot because of his command issues, which haven't really improved thus far.
The same is true for hitters of course. The non-box score stats (chase rate, barrel rate, exit velocity etc) are far more predictive of being able to adapt to major league pitching than traditional stats. Opponent pitching quality varies a lot. A batter with an advanced eye can pump up his OBP against wild pitchers and a toolsy but undisciplined hitter can pump up his stats against mistakes, but those skills won't translate against major league pitchers. Pitch recognition and plate coverage translate really well but it's hard to measure those qualities strictly from a box score.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - BobK - 04-13-2023
Roberto Perez now out for the year.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - old spanish trail - 04-13-2023
(04-13-2023, 12:30 PM)BobK Wrote: Roberto Perez now out for the year.
Too bad. That was his problem coming in, right? Cant stay healthy. That's why some questioned the signing.
RE: More Bailey - Giants - 04-13-2023
(04-13-2023, 11:25 AM)DC 86 Wrote:(04-09-2023, 11:03 PM)Giants Wrote: The Richmond box score every day and the Sacramento box score when Harrison is on the mound will either give us hope or cause more unrest in the fan base.
One thing to keep in mind is that minor league box score stats don't necessarily translate to major league performance. Kyle Harrison is a good example. His stuff is so spectacular that he can overwhelm minor league hitters, but his lack of command will hold him back until he fixes that problem. So his superficial numbers may be strong, and even his K/BB may look great, but it's misleading because AA hitters are chasing pitches that major leaguers will let pass, and therefore he will find himself in difficult counts against more experienced hitters.
A great example of what I mean is Dylan Cease. He was a major draft prospect and considered a phenomenal prospect as he rose up through the minors, putting up very strong superficial numbers along the way. But his command was poor so he struggled badly his first two shots at the majors. It was only in his third major league season (at age 25) that he became a solid starter, and the following season (at age 26) he became a dominant, Cy Young-type player. It wouldn't surprise me if Harrison followed a similar trajectory, albeit maybe younger. If he's called up prematurely he is likely to struggle a lot because of his command issues, which haven't really improved thus far.
The same is true for hitters of course. The non-box score stats (chase rate, barrel rate, exit velocity etc) are far more predictive of being able to adapt to major league pitching than traditional stats. Opponent pitching quality varies a lot. A batter with an advanced eye can pump up his OBP against wild pitchers and a toolsy but undisciplined hitter can pump up his stats against mistakes, but those skills won't translate against major league pitchers. Pitch recognition and plate coverage translate really well but it's hard to measure those qualities strictly from a box score.
Yep. Understanding the EL is a pitchers league and the PCL is an hitters league also helps frame discussions.
Since advanced analytics are unavailable for the minor leagues, we are left with the traditional numbers. And those are certainly better than nothing because they give us a some clues For example, if Bailey can hit .280 this year at Richmond, I think it would put him back on the MLB-bound train.
RE: More Bailey - DC 86 - 04-13-2023
(04-13-2023, 02:05 PM)Giants Wrote: Since advanced analytics are unavailable for the minor leagues, we are left with the traditional numbers. And those are certainly better than nothing because they give us a some clues For example, if Bailey can hit .280 this year at Richmond, I think it would put him back on the MLB-bound train.
All AAA parks and some A/AA parks have the necessary tracking equipment installed this year, and you can access all the data on Baseball Savant. It is somewhat cumbersome because you need to search game-by-game but it's there. For example, here is the data for last night's Sacramento Cats game, which was started by our own Tristan Beck:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=4/12/2023&gamePk=721730&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=playerBreakdown&sportId=11#721730
Not to belabor the Bailey argument, but he's never not been on the MLB-bound train since he was drafted, not even close.
RE: More Bailey - lex24 - 04-13-2023
(04-13-2023, 03:11 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(04-13-2023, 02:05 PM)Giants Wrote: Since advanced analytics are unavailable for the minor leagues, we are left with the traditional numbers. And those are certainly better than nothing because they give us a some clues For example, if Bailey can hit .280 this year at Richmond, I think it would put him back on the MLB-bound train.
All AAA parks and some A/AA parks have the necessary tracking equipment installed this year, and you can access all the data on Baseball Savant. It is somewhat cumbersome because you need to search game-by-game but it's there. For example, here is the data for last night's Sacramento Cats game, which was started by our own Tristan Beck:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=4/12/2023&gamePk=721730&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=playerBreakdown&sportId=11#721730
Not to belabor the Bailey argument, but he's never not been on the MLB-bound train since he was drafted, not even close.
My eyes glaze over and I start having panic attacks thinking I’m about to take a math test if I look at “advanced analytics”. Give me scouts that can employ the Potter Stewart test… “ I know it when I see it.”
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-13-2023
We should bring up Bailey now. He's already 24, and has a .364/.364/.546/.909 split as a lefty (vs. .200/.429/.200/629 as a righty). He's fielding 1.000, has thrown out 1 of 3 base stealers. I'm sold. Have him platoon with Bart.
(04-13-2023, 02:05 PM)Giants Wrote: Yep. Understanding the EL is a pitchers league and the PCL is an hitters league also helps frame discussions.
Right. Here's the 2022 full season slash line comparison between the Eastern League and the Pacific Coast League:
EL: .240/.325/.403/.728
PCL: .266/.351/.453/.804
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - BobK - 04-15-2023
It’s a shame Farham didn’t understand that relief pitching is very important.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - cardcrimson - 04-15-2023
(04-15-2023, 12:28 PM)BobK Wrote: It’s a shame Farham didn’t understand that relief pitching is very important.
Been traveling for nearly two weeks, had the radio on and the Giants were up 6-1, with the Tiger fans booing. Went into Safeway to restock, and came out to listen to the Giants blow a three run lead in the eighth to tie the game. Ouch.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-16-2023
Giants are 1-2 against the Dodgers (8-7) and the Yankees (9-6). They're also 1-2 vs. the Royals, who had a 1-6 record going into the Giant series and were 67-95 last year. The Giants are also 0-2 against the Tigers, 96-66 last year.
It's not the starting pitching. Our starters have a 3.11 ERA, third best in the majors. It's not the hitting -- this 5-8 team is 13th out of 30 MLB teams in scoring runs.
Part of it's the fielding, which is the worst in Faber's history. 29th in fielding percentage. 23rd in Rtot. The only two GIants with positive Rtot are JD Davis and Bryce Johnson, both +2. Here's how rough the fielding is -- Joey Bart is the third most highly rated defender with a neutral 0 rating. Congratulations, Mr. Bart. You're at the top of your pledge class. Estrada and Wade are also neutral. In the negative are Conforto, Flores, Sabol, Villar, Wisely and Yastrzemski at -1. And with no gpa at all is Mr. Blutarski, Brandon Crawford at -4. Our rock in the middle infield.
Part of it's the overall pitching. 8th most runs allowed.
Sad.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 04-16-2023
(04-16-2023, 07:16 AM)Mick Wrote: Giants are 1-2 against the Dodgers (8-7) and the Yankees (9-6). They're also 1-2 vs. the Royals, who had a 1-6 record going into the Giant series and were 67-95 last year. The Giants are also 0-2 against the Tigers, 96-66 last year.
It's not the starting pitching. Our starters have a 3.11 ERA, third best in the majors. It's not the hitting -- this 5-8 team is 13th out of 30 MLB teams in scoring runs.
Part of it's the fielding, which is the worst in Faber's history. 29th in fielding percentage. 23rd in Rtot. The only two GIants with positive Rtot are JD Davis and Bryce Johnson, both +2. Here's how rough the fielding is -- Joey Bart is the third most highly rated defender with a neutral 0 rating. Congratulations, Mr. Bart. You're at the top of your pledge class. Estrada and Wade are also neutral. In the negative are Conforto, Flores, Sabol, Villar, Wisely and Yastrzemski at -1. And with no gpa at all is Mr. Blutarski, Brandon Crawford at -4. Our rock in the middle infield.
Part of it's the overall pitching. 8th most runs allowed.
Sad.
Since 1900, Giants teams to allow at least 5 runs per game:
1901: 5.35 (52-85)
1930: 5.29 (87-67)
1970: 5.10 (86-76)
1995: 5.39 (67-77)
1996: 5.32 (68-94)
1999: 5.13 (86-76)
2023: 5.36 (5-9)
Since 1900, any Giants team to allow more than 5.13 runs per game has finished well below the .500 mark. Though early, this year's team is on pace to allow the second most runs per game since the turn of the 20th Century and it's the most generous team the Giants have had in the 21st Century.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-16-2023
(04-16-2023, 07:16 AM)Mick Wrote: Giants are 1-2 against the Dodgers (8-7) and the Yankees (9-6). They're also 1-2 vs. the Royals, who had a 1-6 record going into the Giant series and were 67-95 last year. The Giants are also 0-2 against the Tigers, 96-66 last year.
It's not the starting pitching. Our starters have a 3.11 ERA, third best in the majors. It's not the hitting -- this 5-8 team is 13th out of 30 MLB teams in scoring runs.
Part of it's the fielding, which is the worst in Faber's history. 29th in fielding percentage. 23rd in Rtot. The only two GIants with positive Rtot are JD Davis and Bryce Johnson, both +2. Here's how rough the fielding is -- Joey Bart is the third most highly rated defender with a neutral 0 rating. Congratulations, Mr. Bart. You're at the top of your pledge class. Estrada and Wade are also neutral. In the negative are Conforto, Flores, Sabol, Villar, Wisely and Yastrzemski at -1. And with no gpa at all is Mr. Blutarski, Brandon Crawford at -4. Our rock in the middle infield.
Part of it's the overall pitching. 8th most runs allowed.
Sad.
Not the least bit worried about Crawford. Had maybe his worst game ever Saturday. But he’ll come around defensively.
Problems have been same as last year. Bullpen. Defense. Injuries. Offensively, I’ll add their over emphasis on HRs and their propensity to strike out. Perhaps related. 60 percent of their runs have been from HRs. That is not a positive stat. I’ll keep saying it: their offense success depends on how well they can score other than by HRs. 14 games is a SSS. But so far, it’s been poor.