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RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-16-2023

(04-16-2023, 07:57 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Since 1900, Giants teams to allow at least 5 runs per game:

1901: 5.35 (52-85)
1930: 5.29 (87-67)
1970: 5.10 (86-76)
1995: 5.39 (67-77) 
1996: 5.32 (68-94)
1999: 5.13 (86-76)
2023: 5.36 (5-9)

Since 1900, any Giants team to allow more than 5.13 runs per game has finished well below the .500 mark. Though early, this year's team is on pace to allow the second most runs per game since the turn of the 20th Century and it's the most generous team the Giants have had in the 21st Century.

It's even worse than you're indicating. Here's your table with league-wide runs per game allowed and the delta

1901: 5.35 (52-85)       4.63 / .72 more than league average
1930: 5.29 (87-67)       5.68 / Giants actually gave up fewer runs than the league average
1970: 5.10 (86-76)       4.52 / .68 more than league average
1995: 5.39 (67-77)       4.63 / .86 more than league average
1996: 5.32 (68-94)       4.68 / .64 more than league average
1999: 5.13 (86-76)       4.95 / .18 more than league average, so not too bad...hence the winning record.
2023: 5.36 (5-9)          4.64 / .72 more than league average, similar to 1901, 1995 and 1996.

In other words, we could be headed for a stinker of a year, if they don't turn it around fast.

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-17-2023

2012. Miguel Cabrera strikes out to end WS.  2023. Beats Giants with single in 9th. 2014. Salvadore Perez pops out to end WS.  2023 hits 2 HRs in series, including game tying 3 run HR in 8th.  Hate to think what Nelson Cruz is going to do…..

RE: More Bailey - DC 86 - 04-17-2023

(04-13-2023, 04:05 PM)lex24 Wrote:  My eyes glaze over and I start having panic attacks thinking I’m about to take a math test if I look at “advanced analytics”.  Give me scouts that can employ the Potter Stewart test… “ I know it when I see it.”

I would argue that you need both scouts and data analysts, although the Astros seem to be doing very well and they have had zero pro scouts for several years now.

RE: More Bailey - lex24 - 04-17-2023

(04-17-2023, 10:48 AM)DC 86 Wrote:  
(04-13-2023, 04:05 PM)lex24 Wrote:  My eyes glaze over and I start having panic attacks thinking I’m about to take a math test if I look at “advanced analytics”.  Give me scouts that can employ the Potter Stewart test… “ I know it when I see it.”

I would argue that you need both scouts and data analysts, although the Astros seem to be doing very well and they have had zero pro scouts for several years now.

Yes, you do need both. Astros cite has 40 people listed in scouting Dept.  They must be doing something….

RE: More Bailey - cardcrimson - 04-18-2023

(04-17-2023, 09:41 PM)lex24 Wrote:  
(04-17-2023, 10:48 AM)DC 86 Wrote:  
(04-13-2023, 04:05 PM)lex24 Wrote:  My eyes glaze over and I start having panic attacks thinking I’m about to take a math test if I look at “advanced analytics”.  Give me scouts that can employ the Potter Stewart test… “ I know it when I see it.”

I would argue that you need both scouts and data analysts, although the Astros seem to be doing very well and they have had zero pro scouts for several years now.

Yes, you do need both. Astros cite has 40 people listed in scouting Dept.  They must be doing something….

The Astros have a large "amateur" scouting group and a large "international" scouting group. Apparently they don't have any scouts officially scouting the "pros". That said, they have a lot of area/regional scouts that I'd imagine would swing by a minor league game or two.

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-18-2023

Would very much have liked to see Ramos in the 9th instead of Wade. Again, the devotion to splits is a bit much. Think it through. Wade PH for Ramos to lead off 7th. Giants were ahead 3-2.  It was obvious the spot was going to come up again. Ramos is a pretty good outfielder. Better than Wade.  So, you may lose a bit defensively. Which you also don’t want to do ahead late. More to the point, if the Giants are behind, it’s going to be Puk in the 9th.  But Kapler just had to get that lefty righty matchup. Damn whatever consequence comes later.

So, what what happens? Top 9  runner on first no one out down a run. Wade up instead of Ramos.  He bunts. Which you never want to do down one on the road in the ninth inning. Ramos would not have bunted in that situation.

Good managers play out game situations in real time. They think ahead. Kapler manages by computer and by rote. And essentially, he’s just following game plans drawn up by the FO.  

It’s the modern approach that Joe Maddon referred to - the game is being run by men in suits.  And he did not mean Connie Mack.

RE: More Bailey - DC 86 - 04-18-2023

(04-17-2023, 09:41 PM)lex24 Wrote:  Yes, you do need both. Astros cite has 40 people listed in scouting Dept.  They must be doing something….

Exclusively amateur scouts (high school, college, international). Since we were discussing minor leaguers I was referring to how they analyze those players.
(04-18-2023, 07:20 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  The Astros have a large "amateur" scouting group and a large "international" scouting group. Apparently they don't have any scouts officially scouting the "pros". That said, they have a lot of area/regional scouts that I'd imagine would swing by a minor league game or two.

To my knowledge they don't do that. They added to their scouting department last year but still have one of the smaller amateur scouting staffs in MLB so I don't think their personnel have a lot of free time in any case.
(04-18-2023, 10:00 AM)lex24 Wrote:  Good managers play out game situations in real time. They think ahead. Kapler manages by computer and by rote. And essentially, he’s just following game plans drawn up by the FO.

I agree, yesterday's decisions didn't make sense at all (and to say that Ramos is a better defender than Wade is an understatement). But my understanding is that Kepler has a good amount of leeway in terms of game management (a lot more than Aaron Boone, for example) so I'm not sure this one is on the FO, I think Kapler is really enamored of optimizing each at bat in isolation, to a fault.

RE: More Bailey - lex24 - 04-18-2023

(04-18-2023, 10:15 AM)DC 86 Wrote:  
(04-17-2023, 09:41 PM)lex24 Wrote:  Yes, you do need both. Astros cite has 40 people listed in scouting Dept.  They must be doing something….

Exclusively amateur scouts (high school, college, international). Since we were discussing minor leaguers I was referring to how they analyze those players.
(04-18-2023, 07:20 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:  The Astros have a large "amateur" scouting group and a large "international" scouting group. Apparently they don't have any scouts officially scouting the "pros". That said, they have a lot of area/regional scouts that I'd imagine would swing by a minor league game or two.

To my knowledge they don't do that. They added to their scouting department last year but still have one of the smaller amateur scouting staffs in MLB so I don't think their personnel have a lot of free time in any case.
(04-18-2023, 10:00 AM)lex24 Wrote:  Good managers play out game situations in real time. They think ahead. Kapler manages by computer and by rote. And essentially, he’s just following game plans drawn up by the FO.

I agree, yesterday's decisions didn't make sense at all (and to say that Ramos is a better defender than Wade is an understatement). But my understanding is that Kepler has a good amount of leeway in terms of game management (a lot more than Aaron Boone, for example) so I'm not sure this one is on the FO, I think Kapler is really enamored of optimizing each at bat in isolation, to a fault.

“Each at bat in isolation” is the key phrase and the problem.  Of  course they are times to make that switch. That wasn’t one of them. And I think any major league manager should have known that. But I will fully admit I do not think much of Kapler.

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - old spanish trail - 04-18-2023

The Gyros are duck soup.  Haniger is getting ready to play. So is Slater. Oh boy! So now Conforto and Joc are out and Crawford is already tired and can't count on Stripling or Tay Togers or Hjelle.  Brebbia is a great clubhouse guy, but can't count on him either unless you are looking for hits. Oy!

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 04-18-2023

The good news tonight…

Richmond hammered Erie (Detroit Tigers) 15-6.  Bailey went 5-5 (including his first HR of the season) to raise his batting average to .412 with an OPS of 1.018.

In AAA action, Slater (2-3 single and double) and Haniger (1-3 HR) are getting closer to returning to SF (upcoming homestand?).

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-19-2023

Tristen Beck called up to replace Wood, who goes to DL.

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - BobK - 04-20-2023

D Backs release Bumgarner

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-20-2023

(04-20-2023, 12:24 PM)BobK Wrote:  D Backs release Bumgarner

Not surprising.  But sad. I hope he retires.

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-21-2023

Went to the game last night, a 9-4 loss stinkeroo. Manaea followed his pattern, got through the lineup the first time pretty well, then got shelled. A series of relievers couldn't do any better. Giants hit a few home runs. Place was seriously empty...we sat in the second row behind the Giants' on deck circle and the tickets cost me less than three figures.

Hope Haniger and Slater can improve this team. But they aren't relief pitchers, so...probably not. Crawford looks like he's lost all of his mobility and range. Ex-Stanford star Tristan Beck pitched 5 1/3rd and gave up four runs.

Seeing Mark Canha (Bellarmine, Cal, Oakland A's) in a Mets uniform was a bit odd.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN202304200.shtml

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-22-2023

(04-21-2023, 07:01 AM)Mick Wrote:  Went to the game last night, a 9-4 loss stinkeroo. Manaea followed his pattern, got through the lineup the first time pretty well, then got shelled. A series of relievers couldn't do any better. Giants hit a few home runs. Place was seriously empty...we sat in the second row behind the Giants' on deck circle and the tickets cost me less than three figures.

Hope Haniger and Slater can improve this team. But they aren't relief pitchers, so...probably not. Crawford looks like he's lost all of his mobility and range. Ex-Stanford star Tristan Beck pitched 5 1/3rd and gave up four runs.

Seeing Mark Canha (Bellarmine, Cal, Oakland A's) in a Mets uniform was a bit odd.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN202304200.shtml

Attendance is going to be something to watch.  At least you saw Becks debut.  Which all in all was not bad.

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 04-22-2023

Relative to their wealth, the Giants are the worst team in major league sports right now.

I challenge anyone to name a team with a wealthier owner and bigger market, that sucks worse. You can have your pick of all the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL teams.

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-22-2023

(04-22-2023, 08:02 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Relative to their wealth, the Giants are the worst team in major league sports right now.

I challenge anyone to name a team with a wealthier owner and bigger market, that sucks worse. You can have your pick of all the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL teams.

19 games. Lot of season left.

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - old spanish trail - 04-22-2023

(04-22-2023, 11:55 AM)lex24 Wrote:  
(04-22-2023, 08:02 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Relative to their wealth, the Giants are the worst team in major league sports right now.

I challenge anyone to name a team with a wealthier owner and bigger market, that sucks worse. You can have your pick of all the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL teams.

19 games. Lot of season left.

Yeah, but...

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 04-22-2023

Nice to see Logan Webb get a win. Would be nice for him to develop into a solid #1.

RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - DC 86 - 04-22-2023

(04-22-2023, 08:02 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Relative to their wealth, the Giants are the worst team in major league sports right now.

I challenge anyone to name a team with a wealthier owner and bigger market, that sucks worse. You can have your pick of all the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL teams.

I will accept that challenge: Houston Rockets. There are others but they just finished 22-60, owner is worth $8.2 billion, fifth largest metro area in the country, owner/front office/head coach were at each other's throats all season, completely dysfunctional organization. Repeat: 22-60.

Re the Giants: it's barely one ninth of the season. Last year at this point they had the exact opposite record (13-7) as they have now and people on this board were repeatedly citing their "projections" for winning around 100 games. They are a flawed, limited team this year but they aren't destined for a .350 season either, or anything close. Regression to the mean works both ways.

The As aren't in the same exact market although there is a good deal of overlap, and their owner isn't quite as wealthy although wealthy enough, and it's very likely they are going to leave the state soon. That's a genuinely miserable situation, only eleven miles away.