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RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 04-23-2023
(04-22-2023, 10:37 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(04-22-2023, 08:02 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Relative to their wealth, the Giants are the worst team in major league sports right now.
I challenge anyone to name a team with a wealthier owner and bigger market, that sucks worse. You can have your pick of all the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL teams.
I will accept that challenge: Houston Rockets. There are others but they just finished 22-60, owner is worth $8.2 billion, fifth largest metro area in the country, owner/front office/head coach were at each other's throats all season, completely dysfunctional organization. Repeat: 22-60.
Re the Giants: it's barely one ninth of the season. Last year at this point they had the exact opposite record (13-7) as they have now and people on this board were repeatedly citing their "projections" for winning around 100 games. They are a flawed, limited team this year but they aren't destined for a .350 season either, or anything close. Regression to the mean works both ways.
The As aren't in the same exact market although there is a good deal of overlap, and their owner isn't quite as wealthy although wealthy enough, and it's very likely they are going to leave the state soon. That's a genuinely miserable situation, only eleven miles away.
Thanks for the candidate suggestion. The Rockets do suck by record, but they also have a young talented core with Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün, both who increased their scoring averages by 5 pts from rookie to second year, and rookie Jabari Smith also looks like a real player. The Rockets are said to be ready to start competing again, which likely means signing some free agent veterans and/or trading their lotto pick for one given the free agent class is pretty weak, to boost them into contending status. The Rockets have a lot more going for them than the Giants.
I didn’t say the Giants are the worst lightly. Like a friend told me yesterday, the A’s may suck, but they aren’t trying to win. The Giants are, and they aren’t much better than the A’s. What does this say about the Giants? And what reason is there to feel good about the future given seemingly every single top prospect seems to fizzle and they can’t sign top talent free agents?
Beat prospects:
Marco Luciano - injured and not playing
Vaun Brown - injured and not playing
Patrick Bailey - Hitting for avg., but just 3 XBH out of 15 hits
Kyle Harrison - 5 ERA and 2+ WHIP
Casey Schmitt - hits for avg. & plays D, but 22 Ks, 0 HR, 6/27 XBH, 3 BB in 92 PA will keep him in Sac
Aeverson Artega and Grant McCray both under .150 for Eugene
Is there any top pitching prospect?
In sum, Rockets > Giants, IMO.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-23-2023
(04-23-2023, 04:07 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(04-22-2023, 10:37 PM)DC 86 Wrote:(04-22-2023, 08:02 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Relative to their wealth, the Giants are the worst team in major league sports right now.
I challenge anyone to name a team with a wealthier owner and bigger market, that sucks worse. You can have your pick of all the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL teams.
I will accept that challenge: Houston Rockets. There are others but they just finished 22-60, owner is worth $8.2 billion, fifth largest metro area in the country, owner/front office/head coach were at each other's throats all season, completely dysfunctional organization. Repeat: 22-60.
Re the Giants: it's barely one ninth of the season. Last year at this point they had the exact opposite record (13-7) as they have now and people on this board were repeatedly citing their "projections" for winning around 100 games. They are a flawed, limited team this year but they aren't destined for a .350 season either, or anything close. Regression to the mean works both ways.
The As aren't in the same exact market although there is a good deal of overlap, and their owner isn't quite as wealthy although wealthy enough, and it's very likely they are going to leave the state soon. That's a genuinely miserable situation, only eleven miles away.
Thanks for the candidate suggestion. The Rockets do suck by record, but they also have a young talented core with Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün, both who increased their scoring averages by 5 pts from rookie to second year, and rookie Jabari Smith also looks like a real player. The Rockets are said to be ready to start competing again, which likely means signing some free agent veterans and/or trading their lotto pick for one given the free agent class is pretty weak, to boost them into contending status. The Rockets have a lot more going for them than the Giants.
I didn’t say the Giants are the worst lightly. Like a friend told me yesterday, the A’s may suck, but they aren’t trying to win. The Giants are, and they aren’t much better than the A’s. What does this say about the Giants? And what reason is there to feel good about the future given seemingly every single top prospect seems to fizzle and they can’t sign top talent free agents?
Beat prospects:
Marco Luciano - injured and not playing
Vaun Brown - injured and not playing
Patrick Bailey - Hitting for avg., but just 3 XBH out of 15 hits
Kyle Harrison - 5 ERA and 2+ WHIP
Casey Schmitt - hits for avg. & plays D, but 22 Ks, 0 HR, 6/27 XBH, 3 BB in 92 PA will keep him in Sac
Aeverson Artega and Grant McCray both under .150 for Eugene
Is there any top pitching prospect?
In sum, Rockets > Giants, IMO.
The Angels have been the poster child for high payroll big market team with low achievement.
As for the Giants. 20 games tells very little. But if you are analyzing their farm system, look at the arms. They are loading up on power pitchers. Whether they produce is another question. But that is the strength of the farm system right now,
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 04-23-2023
(04-23-2023, 08:43 AM)lex24 Wrote: if you are analyzing their farm system, look at the arms. They are loading up on power pitchers. Whether they produce is another question. But that is the strength of the farm system right now,
I see Eugene leads the Northwest League in team ERA and Richmond is 2nd or 3rd in the Eastern League.
What names should I be paying attention to as far as these power arms go? What level are most of them at now?
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - DC 86 - 04-23-2023
(04-23-2023, 04:07 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: In sum, Rockets > Giants, IMO.
It's hyperbolic to call the Giants the "worst team in major league sports right now", even as defined within your parameters. The Giants are a frustrating franchise because they have only spent at the level of a mid-market team and their drafting and player development under this regime has been poor. But they have strong alignment between ownership/front office/manager and organizational stability. Here is a short list of major market franchises that are actually dysfunctional and enduring a prolonged period of non-competitiveness: Jets, Bears, Texans, Angels, Rockets. The Rockets are 59-177 over the last three years. Yes, they have some young talent, and maybe they win the lottery and add Wembanyana, but they have a much higher hill to climb than the Giants, and they have a toxic organization that needs to be completely revamped.
Is there any top pitching prospect? yes, Kyle Harrison, and four starts in AAA doesn't change his potential. As to the power arms that Lex referred to, I grant you that none are top-100 prospects (or close) and as a whole the Giants failures in drafting/developing player means that the team is unlikely to see near term impact from its farm system the way that the Orioles or Dodgers can expect. It's a real problem, and I'm nor saying that the Giants will be better than mediocre this year or even next. But again, it's not a Jets/Bears/Texans/Angels/Rockets situation with deep rooted issues. The team demonstrated this offseason that they are prepared to spend money, and ownership is stable. It's a much more promising situation than having Arte Moreno pulling the strings, for example.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-23-2023
7-14 start in 2023. Same start in 1951. Miracle at Coogan's Bluff. Shot Heard Round the World. Bobby Thomson. Rookie Willie Mays. Stanky, Dark, Hank Thompson and Lockman. Monte Irvin. A super sub named Bobby Thompson. Sal "The Barber" Maglie and Larry Jansen. Every starting field player except Thompson hit double digit home runs, no one hit more than 24. Staff ERA of 3.48. 98 wins and an NL pennant. They came from 13 games behind on August 11 to tie the Dodgers and win.
BTW, Joey Bart threw out two guys yesterday (one trying to steal, one trying to advance), and his pitch framing stats are very good. He's hitting 300, and he's reduced his strikeouts. Yeah, I know, almost all singles, .716 OPS. .382 OBP, which leads the starters. And his OPS+ has increased every year, now at 97...and that's hitting against Mets, Dodger, Yankee pitching. And he's taking a beating, too. He's been hit by a pitch three games in a row. He's thrown out 2 of 10 base stealers, and league average is 22%. That 2% negative delta is better than the 3% from last year and 6% from his rookie year. And he's first in the NL in range factor among NL catchers this year, third in assists by catchers in the NL.
Sabol's WAR is -0.2, Winns is 0.0, Perez is -0.1. Bart's WAR is 0.2. Defensive WAR is 0.2, offensive WAR is 0.1 He's doing pretty well. if it was just Bart's WAR, the Giants' catchers would be 9th in MLB instead of 23rd.
As for the rest of the Giants by positional WAR, we have :
SP: T7th
DH: T8th
2B: T10th
1B: T11th
LF: T11th
CF: T13th
PH: T13th
3B: T16th
C: T19th
RP: 26th
SS: T27th
CF: 28th
And there you have it. None of the positions are really at the top of their game. While starting pitching is comparatively strong, relief pitching is very weak. And where a team has to be strong -- and when the WS-winning Giants were strong -- up the middle, the Giants are weak at catcher, shortstop and center field. The Giants had Posey, young Crawford and Pagan/Blanco. Now they have poor catchers (ironically, aside from Bart), old Crawford and guys who can't play CF or hit well. And we don't have Wilson/Casilla/Romo/Affeldt/Lopez. Instead we have...?
Maybe Crawford gets better, maybe Bart builds on yesterday's game and owns the catching position, Slater coming back should get CF at least back to average. Maybe the relievers get better.
Lots of maybes out there.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-23-2023
(04-23-2023, 09:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(04-23-2023, 08:43 AM)lex24 Wrote: if you are analyzing their farm system, look at the arms. They are loading up on power pitchers. Whether they produce is another question. But that is the strength of the farm system right now,
I see Eugene leads the Northwest League in team ERA and Richmond is 2nd or 3rd in the Eastern League.
What names should I be paying attention to as far as these power arms go? What level are most of them at now?
AAA
Harrison
Beck (up)
Waites
Rodriguez
Dabovich
Winn
AA
Mason Black
Seymour (acquired in Ruf steal)
High A
Silva
Jose Cruz
Whisenhunt ( not power as much as a great changeup)
Trevor McDonald.
Recovering from ACL - Reggie Crawford
I suspect there is more. Giants have drafted pitchers heavily last couple drafts. It takes a while for them to develop.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - DC 86 - 04-23-2023
(04-23-2023, 09:50 AM)lex24 Wrote:(04-23-2023, 09:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(04-23-2023, 08:43 AM)lex24 Wrote: if you are analyzing their farm system, look at the arms. They are loading up on power pitchers. Whether they produce is another question. But that is the strength of the farm system right now,
I see Eugene leads the Northwest League in team ERA and Richmond is 2nd or 3rd in the Eastern League.
What names should I be paying attention to as far as these power arms go? What level are most of them at now?
AAA
Harrison
Beck (up)
Waites
Rodriguez
Dabovich
Winn
AA
Mason Black
Seymour (acquired in Ruf steal)
High A
Silva
Jose Cruz
Whisenhunt ( not power as much as a great changeup)
Trevor McDonald.
Recovering from ACL - Reggie Crawford
I suspect there is more. Giants have drafted pitchers heavily last couple drafts. It takes a while for them to develop.
That's a big list, and with pitchers you sometime get unexpected improvements and often get injuries, so it's hard to predict who will make it. But just narrowing things down a bit, I think Black and Whisenhunt are considered the best prospects other than Harrison, although neither is really a power pitcher or is expected to be more than a mid-rotation starter if that. The biggest upside (and a true power guy) is Carson Seymour; if he puts it together he could have an impact, someone to dream on to complement Harrison some day.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 04-23-2023
(04-23-2023, 09:50 AM)lex24 Wrote:(04-23-2023, 09:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(04-23-2023, 08:43 AM)lex24 Wrote: if you are analyzing their farm system, look at the arms. They are loading up on power pitchers. Whether they produce is another question. But that is the strength of the farm system right now,
I see Eugene leads the Northwest League in team ERA and Richmond is 2nd or 3rd in the Eastern League.
What names should I be paying attention to as far as these power arms go? What level are most of them at now?
AAA
Harrison
Beck (up)
Waites
Rodriguez
Dabovich
Winn
AA
Mason Black
Seymour (acquired in Ruf steal)
High A
Silva
Jose Cruz
Whisenhunt ( not power as much as a great changeup)
Trevor McDonald.
Recovering from ACL - Reggie Crawford
I suspect there is more. Giants have drafted pitchers heavily last couple drafts. It takes a while for them to develop.
Add Kei-Wei Teng to the list. In three starts at Richmond, he has posted some pretty good numbers.
11.2 innings, 6 hits, 25-4 K-BB, 0.86 WHIP
Acquired in the Sam Dyson trade with Minnesota.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-24-2023
(04-23-2023, 08:56 PM)Giants Wrote:(04-23-2023, 09:50 AM)lex24 Wrote:(04-23-2023, 09:28 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(04-23-2023, 08:43 AM)lex24 Wrote: if you are analyzing their farm system, look at the arms. They are loading up on power pitchers. Whether they produce is another question. But that is the strength of the farm system right now,
I see Eugene leads the Northwest League in team ERA and Richmond is 2nd or 3rd in the Eastern League.
What names should I be paying attention to as far as these power arms go? What level are most of them at now?
AAA
Harrison
Beck (up)
Waites
Rodriguez
Dabovich
Winn
AA
Mason Black
Seymour (acquired in Ruf steal)
High A
Silva
Jose Cruz
Whisenhunt ( not power as much as a great changeup)
Trevor McDonald.
Recovering from ACL - Reggie Crawford
I suspect there is more. Giants have drafted pitchers heavily last couple drafts. It takes a while for them to develop.
Add Kei-Wei Teng to the list. In three starts at Richmond, he has posted some pretty good numbers.
11.2 innings, 6 hits, 25-4 K-BB, 0.86 WHIP
Acquired in the Sam Dyson trade with Minnesota.
His issue has always been command. One thing - I’d like to see them stretching out starters in the minor leagues. As long as the message is - strikeouts strikeouts strikeouts that will not happen.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 04-24-2023
A recent post suggested the current issue with the Giants is their lack of a desire to “open the wallet” during free agency.
Today’s MLB Power Poll in The Athletic suggests otherwise. To wit, “Free agency is the least efficient and reliable way to build a winner and the Giants need to start producing good young players soon”.
That comment prompted a review of SF’s last seven MLB drafts.
Here are the top three choices between 2016-22:
2016
1 - none
2 - Brian Reynolds - 59
3 - Matt Quinn
2017
1 - Heliot Ramos - 19
2 - Jacob Gonzalez
3 - Seth Corry
2018
1 - Joey Bart - 2
2 - Sean Hjelle
3 - Jake Wong
2019
1 - Hunter Bishop -10
2 - Logan Wyatt
3 - Grant McCray
2020
1 - Patrick Bailey - 13
2 - Casey Schmitt, Nick Swiney, Jimmy Glowenke
3 - Kyle Harrison
2021
1 - Will Bednar -14
2 - Matt Mikulski
3 - Mason Black
2022
1 - Reggie Crawford -30
2 - Carson Wisenhunt
3 - William Kempner
Only Reynolds (Pirates), Ramos, Bart and Hjelle have made it to the big leagues so far. And seven of the eleven players drafted between 2016-2019 have not reached the bigs. These are the classes that should have yielded guys playing at a high level today. Because the success rate was so low, the Giants are feeling the pain. Perhaps the classes of 20 (on paper, easily the best class during the period reviewed), 21 and 22 will have a better hit rate. If they don’t the Giants will continue to wallow in the middle of the NL no matter what happens in free agency.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-24-2023
I'd be curious to know what impact SF's low draft order had on their draft outcomes. SF has been mostly successful to very successful the past 15 years. I imagine that SFG has selected very far back in the draft during that time.
Secondly, how does the Giants' historical MLB draft record compare with that of other teams?
Thirdly, a trivia question of sorts. What was the Giants' best draft in a calendar year?
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - OutsiderFan - 04-24-2023
I had a lot of hope Farhan's regime would turn around the farm system and make it one of the best in MLB. Hasn't happened. Time to clean house and prioritize the farm system in a way the Giants never have and that their CEO says he wants to see.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 04-24-2023
(04-24-2023, 05:14 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I had a lot of hope Farhan's regime would turn around the farm system and make it one of the best in MLB. Hasn't happened. Time to clean house and prioritize the farm system in a way the Giants never have and that their CEO says he wants to see.
It is too soon to fully assess Zaidi’s drafts. His first draft (19) doesn’t look too good. However, his 20 could be the best in MLB that year. And the 21 and 22 groups are too new to rate (I really like Wisenhunt).
The problem right now is the Bobby Evans drafts were well below average and those are the years that should have produced young major league talent by this time.
In summary, I like what Zaidi has done thus far.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - cardcrimson - 04-24-2023
(04-24-2023, 05:14 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I had a lot of hope Farhan's regime would turn around the farm system and make it one of the best in MLB. Hasn't happened. Time to clean house and prioritize the farm system in a way the Giants never have and that their CEO says he wants to see.
Wasn't there a post about the Giants loading up on power pitching in the farm system?
Anyway, how long does it take to build a great farm system? Getting the right scouts in place. Finding talented prospects nationally and internationally. Having the right coaches all across the minors to develop and train the prospects. Finding the right players to fit into your metrics and scheme. Seems like a long process to me, where cleaning house every few years would be extremely detrimental. Patience at the major league level is one thing. Patience in developing the minors is another.
While I'm not a fan of analytics in general, Farhan was running the Dodgers for awhile, and they have arguably the best farm system in baseball. While Farhan didn't develop it, he didn't screw it up, and knows what a good system looks like. I'd give him time on the system.
Kapler is another story. . ..
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Giants - 04-24-2023
(04-24-2023, 04:24 PM)Mick Wrote: I'd be curious to know what impact SF's low draft order had on their draft outcomes. SF has been mostly successful to very successful the past 15 years. I imagine that SFG has selected very far back in the draft during that time.
Secondly, how does the Giants' historical MLB draft record compare with that of other teams?
Thirdly, a trivia question of sorts. What was the Giants' best draft in a calendar year?
I added the spot at which the draft choice was made. With two exceptions, one high, one low, the first round selection range is 10-19 - middle of the pack. Your second question would take some time to analyze. Perhaps, a project for later this summer. Third Q - I have no clue.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - lex24 - 04-24-2023
(04-24-2023, 12:43 PM)Giants Wrote: A recent post suggested the current issue with the Giants is their lack of a desire to “open the wallet” during free agency.
Today’s MLB Power Poll in The Athletic suggests otherwise. To wit, “Free agency is the least efficient and reliable way to build a winner and the Giants need to start producing good young players soon”.
That comment prompted a review of SF’s last seven MLB drafts.
Here are the top three choices between 2016-22:
2016
1 - none
2 - Brian Reynolds - 59
3 - Matt Quinn
2017
1 - Heliot Ramos - 19
2 - Jacob Gonzalez
3 - Seth Corry
2018
1 - Joey Bart - 2
2 - Sean Hjelle
3 - Jake Wong
2019
1 - Hunter Bishop -10
2 - Logan Wyatt
3 - Grant McCray
2020
1 - Patrick Bailey - 13
2 - Casey Schmitt, Nick Swiney, Jimmy Glowenke
3 - Kyle Harrison
2021
1 - Will Bednar -14
2 - Matt Mikulski
3 - Mason Black
2022
1 - Reggie Crawford -30
2 - Carson Wisenhunt
3 - William Kempner
Only Reynolds (Pirates), Ramos, Bart and Hjelle have made it to the big leagues so far. And seven of the eleven players drafted between 2016-2019 have not reached the bigs. These are the classes that should have yielded guys playing at a high level today. Because the success rate was so low, the Giants are feeling the pain. Perhaps the classes of 20 (on paper, easily the best class during the period reviewed), 21 and 22 will have a better hit rate. If they don’t the Giants will continue to wallow in the middle of the NL no matter what happens in free agency.
Not a fan of mutual exclusivity. Do both. Build farm system, develop core and add with FA’s.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-24-2023
(04-24-2023, 06:44 PM)Giants Wrote:(04-24-2023, 04:24 PM)Mick Wrote: I'd be curious to know what impact SF's low draft order had on their draft outcomes. SF has been mostly successful to very successful the past 15 years. I imagine that SFG has selected very far back in the draft during that time.
Secondly, how does the Giants' historical MLB draft record compare with that of other teams?
Thirdly, a trivia question of sorts. What was the Giants' best draft in a calendar year?
I added the spot at which the draft choice was made. With two exceptions, one high, one low, the first round selection range is 10-19 - middle of the pack. Your second question would take some time to analyze. Perhaps, a project for later this summer. Third Q - I have no clue.
I'll vote for the 1968 combined drafts which delivered Gary Matthews in the June draft (#17 overall pick, RoY, 2000+ career hits, 234 career HRs, 30.4 career WAR) and in the January draft the Giants selected Garry Maddox (2nd round pick, .285 career hitter, 8 golden gloves, 248 stolen bases, rarely struck out, 36.8 WAR), and George Foster (3rd round pick, 348 HRs, led league in RBIs 3 consecutive years, MVP in 1977 when he led in runs, RBIs, HRs and was 4th in batting average, 5x all-star, 44.1 career WAR). Interestingly, Foster was only 3rd in WAR in 1977...first was future Giant Rick Reuschel, who was 20-10 for the Cubs.
And I suppose we can include Ed Goodson in the June supplemental draft. He batted .302 in 1973. No real power, mainly a pinch hitter. Didn't strike out much.
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - BobK - 04-24-2023
Cobb with a shutout. A real shutout. Three wins in a row
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Mick - 04-24-2023
(04-24-2023, 09:10 PM)BobK Wrote: Cobb with a shutout. A real shutout. Three wins in a row
Slaters back at lead off, had two hits. JD Davis 2 for 4 with a 3 run HR. Yaz 2 for 4. Bart 1 for 3 with a double and had to come out. Haniger, sac fly for a 1-0 lead. Good game. Maybe they are gathering speed...
RE: OT: Giants 2023 thread - Leftcoast - 04-24-2023
(04-24-2023, 04:24 PM)Mick Wrote: Thirdly, a trivia question of sorts. What was the Giants' best draft in a calendar year?
I'm not sure which single year had the best draft class but picking Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Posey in back-to-back-to-back years is hard to beat. (2006-2008 drafts).
Zack Wheeler in 2009 has also done well, just not for the Giants. (Philly and NYM)